Monday, December 31, 2007

Air Force

Well, I had to take a break from our Family Ski vacation to travel over to the Tahoe Biltmore and watch the Bears vs. the Air Force. I have to say that I was glad I did. I also got to lay some coin down and get a bit of a nice return.

This was an interesting game.

First, Nate Longshore was yanked early, when the Bears were down 21-0. But let's be honest - it was not Nate's fault. Nate was 5 for 8, and the last play of the second drive was dropped (on a 4th and something). It was a pass to Layrelle Cunningham, I think. Because Nate did not have the ability to pass to Jordan or DeSean Jackson, who were sitting out the first quarter.

So, Nate got two series with the second team offense, and was yanked. The Bears were down by 21, because of poor defense (DeCoud was also out the first quarter) and poor special teams (the Falcons recoved a non-onside kick for the first time I think I have ever seen that).

Then, Kevin Riley came in and dominated the game. He had 8 series - all of them went for scores, or were the end of the halfs. And both of those there was no doubt that if time had not run out, the Bears would have scored.

It was almost as if this was orchestrated by Tedford to make the transition to Riley. The announcers had all of the details to make the public case for Riley. The lopsided score was just what Tedford needed to bring Riley in to make his presentation, and he did a terrific job. The details were not that important as opposed to the final result, but they were impressive. I think only three missed completions, one of which was a dropped Hail Mary at the end of the first half which should been caught by Hawkins, and was in fact the most apparent pass interference I have ever seen. He ran for first downs, he scored rushing touchdowns. In fact, he threw tight passes.

The difference was when he was in there, the offense clicked. Also, that we called a different game. Forsett was not as featured in the Riley offense. It was much more of a spread feel with the occasional rushing play, as opposed to the pro-style of Nate's offense. But in any event, Forsett had a great game. He ended with 140 yards, but did have the last quarter fumble that could have been a difference maker. But it was nice to see him with 1500 yards for the season.

The worst part of the game was watching Nate on the sidelines. It was a three hour second by second ruination of a career. It was like watching one of those movies where you can see what is coming, the guys falls, and by the end of the film you know he knows it was all over. Except that you know Nate know it as soon as he was taken out. I mean, even if Riley breaks his leg, the chants for Mansion will be too much to overcome. I really feel for the guy.

The defense still had a lot of issues, but Air Force was a good, tough option running team, which is hard to defend against. Their QB is (or, was, after a nasty leg injury) a very good runner and passer. The style of offense they run is the spread run as opposed to the spread pass. The interesting thing is that thier QB was a very good passer. They were a tough team, well coached, and did not give up. Let's face it, they scored more on us than Tennessee, USC, or Oregon did.

The general proposition is that in Bowl games, the teams that were ranked higher at the beginning of the season generally win the Bowl Game. This is based on the fact that they have more overall talent, that the lay-off is too much for most teams that won on momentum lost that momentum, and that the bowl process itself sort of loses the focus of the game, and the most talented teams win. I think that was clearly the case this year, in this bowl. Air Force is a good team, but clearly less talented than the Bears. Cal has a tremendous amount of offensive power, and can overwhelm you. The defense had issues stopping the two talented Air Force offensive weapons. But once the QB was out, the game was over.

So now, what happens? Does everyone think that Riley would have brought us to the National Championship game? Did playing Nate ruin his career? Is there a real competition? Or does winning the Bowl MVP give you the leg up for next year? Does the SAHPC ruling come in our favor? Does Tedford blow his entire half million bonus tonight on a great New Year Party?

More to come from as the Bears turn...

GO BEARS!!

Sunday, December 23, 2007

Devon Hardin

As Devon goes, so go the Bears.

In Cal's two loses this year, Devon is the one element that has not played up to potential, and has cost Cal the game. We need for him, a senior, to be the leader on the team. More importantly, we need him to be consistent.

Last night, he was double teamed and failed to have a big impact. When Leon Powe was in the same situation, he more often than not was the dominant player on the floor. If Devon wants to make it to the next level, he needs to step up a bit, from a consistency standpoint. He is going to be doubled up all year long. Against Kansas State, he took himself out of the game and gave them the lead.

The good news in both of these loses is that the Bears battled back. They certainly have the talent. They just need to be more consistent.

As far as it goes, the calculations remain the same. Cal needs to win 18 games to get into the tournament. That means that we need to now win at least half of our Pac 10 games. That could be a tall order this year, for any Pac 10 team. It certainly will be tough for Cal. Not that I do not expect us to be a tournament team. But it is not going to be easy, even with the quality team that we have this year.

Happy Holidays. More next week before the Bowl Game, and the opening of the Pac 10 for the hoops team.

GO BEARS!!

Monday, December 17, 2007

Tedford and Cal

FIrst, it has been nice not posting for a while. I got to do a bit of Christmas shopping, meet my kids, get some work done. The weekly pools that I participate in have all dried up. Kids are in finals. The only thing going on is the coaching carnage, which I never believed would impact Cal in the least, at least as far as Tedford goes.

It looks like Cal is starting to get some depth at wide receiver in the recruiting class. I think every Cal fan right now should be praying for Nyan Boeting's final exam grades. But it is nice to see us get some guys over 6 feet tall coming in.

As far as the coaching carnage, there was no way JT was going to go to any of the jobs that opened up. Think about it: He has already moved Cal up to the level of Michigan, or Ohio State. Cal was ranked #9 to #12 pre-season, after losing our three best players to the NFL. That is just like an Ohio State, or a Michigan. We were ranked #2 in the country, and after losing dropped to number 8. That is just like a Michigan or Ohio State. There is a lot of respect out there already for Tedford, the Cal program, and all of that stuff. Yes, we do not have the long tradition of winning, but we do have a long tradition of football, and we do have arguable 5 national championships. We can build what we need over the next 15 or twenty years, and we will also be one of the perennial powerhouses. At least, that is a vision that JT can see, and I think that is a vision that a lot of Cal fans and supporters can see.

Cal is first and foremost an academic institution. But I think everyone realizes the benefits of a strong athletic department. It raises the sense of school pride, it generates income to the school, and it generates a legacy of giving. And, as the state moves away from state funding, the University is going to have to come after the private donor to support the school. This is going to be done in a lot of ways, but I think that the University knows that athletic success is a huge way to involve the community in supporting the school.

There was a pretty good article in the Wall Street Journal last week by Faye Vincent about the endowments at Harvard, Yale and some other big time academic colleges. The general premise is that because of the dominant level of their endowments, they will be able to offer to students free tuition. Right now, if your parents make under $60,000, Harvard is free. Now, they are going to a place where if you make under $200,000, you only have to pay 10% of your income to school tuition. In other words, a 50% discount. Soon, it will come to a point where the school itself will be free.

Cal and other top public schools, on the other hand, are going in the opposite direction. They are starting to charge top dollar for the professional gradutate schools. Law, business, medical and other graduate schools are around $45,000 in just tuition now. The difference is that we were too late in the game. Harvard has a $35 billion dollar endowment. That would fund the entire University of California each year - not just Cal, but UCLA, Irvine, etc.

For Cal to reach the level of academic success to compete against the Harvards and the Yales, and even Stanford, the school needs to reach out to the community to fund it's success. Athletics is a big part of that process. And we need, more than anything, a successful football program to do that. And I think JT knows that. And certainly so does Sandy and the administration. It is nice to get half a billion from BP for energy study. But Cal is not going to sell itself entirely to the highest bidder. We need to have the funds to succeed from the people in our community.

GO Bears!!

Tuesday, December 11, 2007

Cal Basketball and other stuff

I did not want to post before the Kansas State game for fear of what would most certainly have been too gushing of a post after dominating a very weak team for 117 points.

However, even in the loss, it was clear that the Bears were the better team on the road against a terrible refereeing crew from the Big 12. It was shame because the Bears would have moved into the top 25 for the first time in a while with a victory. The refereeing was TRULY a joke. This was the most one-sided game ever called in the history of basketball (well, I am just guessing). But it was bad.

All that aside, the Bears should have won anyway. DeVon Hardin played poorly, as is his MO when he gets into early foul trouble, and the Bears got out-rebounded by a significant margin. In addition, there were 20 turnovers. So that is a lot to make up when you are playing with one hand tied behind your back. We needed to be stronger on the boards.

As far as it goes, losing to Kansas State does not do much for us either way. We are ranked currently at 74 in the RPI, and Kansas State is number 86. So it is a fairly close loss. We dropped from 55 after the loss.

We do have two good pre-season wins which will help us down the line in Missouri and San Diego State, both in the top 50 RPI and hopefully staying there. San Diego State has a strong possibility of contending for their conference crown for the third year in a row, and Missouri is also pretty good. So if they play strong, and Kansas State does well, our pre-season will be one that people are semi-impressed about.

Instead, St. Mary's took our spot in the top 25 by beating San Diego State over the weekend, and moving to 24 in the polls. They are also, at 6 - 0, number 1 in the RPI. That is very impressive for the boys from Moraga.

I am assuming that we win out in our preseason, going into the season with an RPI in the mid-40s. Most of the games remaining are against teams that we should definitely beat. And all are at home. The toughest will be against Utah, who has lost to Washington, Oregon and Santa Clara. All tough teams, but the Bears should be as good as that crew.

I just got my East Bay Business times in the mail. There is a postcard advertisement for the Bears, which is pretty impressive. It says something like: Two Naismith Candidates, Three Returning Starters, Seven Returning Lettermen, and the biggest front line in all of NCAA basketball. When you think about it, it is pretty impressive. This should be a great season for the Bears, and I am starting to get excited.

Although not as excited as I was at the beginning of football season. And we all know how that went.

But I do think that the Bears will be playing past the first weekend in the tournament. I think they can win half the games in the Pac 10, which will give them a definite tournament seeding in the top 32. I can see the Pac 10 getting in 7 teams easily, perhaps 8 if Washington can turn it around.

Hopefully, getting Boykins and Theo back will be a positive to the team. I think it gives a bit more flexibility in the lineup to move from a big to small (but not too small) lineup which can be good. This team is so athletic this year, there really is no excuse for not succeeding.

*******************

I apologize that I have not said this before, but CONGRATULATIONS TO THE MEN'S WATERPOLO TEAM for a dominating defense of their National Title. That is the best news in a while. It is great to see Cal at the top again in this sport, where we belong. I always though of Water Polo, Crew and Rugby as the sports where we should win every year. These are sports with a long tradition of victory at the University and we need to ensure that we stay on top.

It would be nice to say that football and basketball have a long history of victory and achievement. But of course we are trying to build that. Two things come to mind when building long term success: Coaches who are good, competent and with a ton of integrity, who can connect with their players and get them to give their best, and coaches who stay at programs long enough for those qualities to be recognized and rewarded with the best recruits. I think in many of our sports, we have started down that path. If you look at the big winners over time (Jack Clark of Cal Rugby, Mike Krzyzewski of Duke, Lute Olsen, Pete Cutino, John Wooden, etc), you will that is the recipe for success. Both Bobby Bowden and Joe Paterno had that (until they got too old and probably do not have the pulse of what is really going on now). I think that is what we are trying to do with Jeff Tedford and Ben Braun. I think both of those men have had failures, but the idea is that the program is a positive one, that positive consistency means that players come to you. In other words, if you are 10 years old and look up to the best in the business right now, you would consider Jeff Tedford and Cal one of those. If he is still there in 8 years, that is probably a place where you want to go, if you have a choice, and your parents are smart. It is comforting to know that a good program is in place. That is why Lute Olsen is getting paid big bucks to tell people he will be back next year.

So it is nice to see that in other Cal sports as well - trying to make a transition from a sometime winner to a consistent winner. Our Soccer Teams are trying to get to that level, and our Women's basketball team is certainly building that. Also, Women's Volleyball is doing well for the third straight year (actually beating Nebraska - defending champs - and making it into the final four).

I think a lot of this has to do with an re-emphasis on athletics at Cal, and a lot of this has to do with increasing contributions from alumni due to the success of the football team over the past few year. But most of this has to do with hiring the right coaches, paying them a competitive salary, and making it comfortable for well qualified athletes to make Cal home. But certainly California Athletics is on a very positive upswing over the past 5 years or so.

GO BEARS!!

Wednesday, December 5, 2007

Things

First of all, interesting to note that the real story finally comes out about Nate's ankle. He has a bone chip in it (which, I am sure, swells up during the game) which probably causes him more paid as the game goes on. Who would have guessed?

But enough of that.

It was interesting that the Pac 10 all Academic Team was released. USC had QB Sanchez on as honorable mention. Good thing Booty got injured of they would have been shut out.

Stanford had the most, which is not surprising with their grade inflation. But I was most impressed with Washington State, who had 12 honorees - 6 on the first team. Of course, they immediately fired their coach, since that is not the type of program they want to be running.

Cal came in with 10, which I think was third on the list. Justin Forsett made the grade with a 3.03 GPA in interdisciplinary Studies, for the second team selection. Alex Mack was first team with a 3.5 in legal studies - the only Bear on the first team.

Dennis Dixon made the second team as well. I am sorta impressed by that guy.

GO BEARS!!

Tuesday, December 4, 2007

Hawaii - Tebow controversy

There is an interesting article on CNN/SI.com which talks about June Jones calling Tim Tebow a system quarterback, and how Colt Brennan is really the best QB, because he runs a pro-style offense. It is actually pretty interesting reading.

I think he may have a point. tim tebow is a man, but he does run the same offense that Urban Meyer ran at Utah, which showcased Alex Smith. And Cal fans (as well as 49er fans) know how that goes.

I guess the question will be should you not draft an Urban Meyer QB? I mean, looking at what Tedford's guys have done recently in the NFL (Rodgers and Boller this past week) compared to Alex Smith's three years at the helm of the sinking ship 49ers, it appears that he is an inadequate developer of NFL talent at the QB position.

I am just kidding - sort of. It is an interesting theory.

Actually, Timmy Chang from Hawaii is a case study in a system QB. But that being said, it is true that Brennan was going to start for Colorado at one point before he went to Hawaii. So he is not just a system QB - he is a damn good QB and highly recruited.

Actually, the Hawaii - Georgia game is the only BCS game that I will definitely watch.

GO BEARS!!

Monday, December 3, 2007

Pac 10 gets screwed

Once again, the Pac 10 gets screwed by the BCS - costing us 4 million bucks.

Arizona State gets passed over by Illinois. Ron Zooks Illini are in a BCS game. Yes, it hurts. A lot.

If I were Arizona State, and I got screwed by the folks in my own home town from the Fiesta Bowl, I am not sure what I would do. But I sure as hell would stop eating Tostitos. That surely sucks.

The big issue here is the Rose Bowl. Because of their conference tie-ins, they have USC playing Illinois. Who wants to see that game? Illinois is not BCS quality - they lost three games in the BIG 10! - the worst major conference (well, maybe the ACC). ASU lost to USC and Oregon, both ranked in the top 10 when they played them - yes Oregon lost a few games later after Dixon was hurt, but they were the best team in the country at the time.

And the Rose Bowl get's USC and Illinois. That is sad. They should have told the Big 10 to blow off, taken Georgia, and be done with it. Instead, we have these tepid match-ups. They need to change thier rule - only take the winners of the Big 10 or Pac 10, and if they are in the National Championship game, then they get an at large. But it does not have to be a crappy team like Illinois.

This is how the BCS games should have been, based on the current ratings and what I think would have been the best matchups:

Championship Game

Ohio State vs LSU

Rose

USC vs Georgia

Fiesta

Arizona State vs Oklahoma

Orange

Virginia Tech vs Hawaii

Sugar

West Virginia vs Missouri



We would get to see what would have happened if the last two 1 and 2 didn't choke. We would get to see the SEC vs Pac 10 thing. We would get to see the Dennis Erickson eviscerate the Stoops brothers. We would get to see Hawaii lose brutally to a decent team (well, you can't have it all). We would still be stuck with a lousy Championship game, but we would have something to do over the holidays. Oh well.

The conference affiliation thing for the Rose Bowl really screwed the pooch this year. I am still a BCS supporter, but they need to have some flexibility.

And Kansas getting in over Missouri is a joke. Big time.

Now what?

After the horrible mess on Saturday, where everyone decided to act like 5 year olds and sit and cry on the sidelines and not play, I go to the message boards and it was a blood-bath. Fire the coach, change it all - I am not going to go to any more Cal games any more - BOO- HOO.

Good riddance, losers. Go away.

This is the result of Jeff Tedford being too nice a guy and providing for us Bear fans a new level of expectation.

Tedford goes to the families of his players, recruits them, brings in guys who have good families, who have solid backgrounds, who have good skills, and who want to go the most prestigious university in the world. They come for the degree, and the chance to play big-time football on a big-time team.

In other words, they are spoiled little kids. And at the first sign of adversity, they quit on their coach, and on themselves. Nate is not having a good year, I quit. I am not getting enough receptions, I guess i'll drop the ones I do get. Even Forsett didn't look himself on Saturday.

Tedford doesn't understand that these players are not killing themselves like he did, because they have something to fall back on. They get the Cal degree, so they don't have to make it in the league. Zack Follett was inspired, played well, and called the team out. We need more Zack Folletts.

These guys are babies, and the played like it. Sometimes, you have to go through a bunch of adversity to finally grow up. I have hired college kids who think they know it all, and are lousy employees. You have to fire those guys or they will never get it. You have to be brutal and tell them they suck, learn from you elders, and stop being a bunch of smart-ass kids. I think we have a bunch of smart-ass kids who have a lot of talent, and who think they know it all. The Bears need a bunch of guys who have been through adversity.

So Tedford is to blame for that. He is looking for leaders on the team. Well, he has to create them. I would start by opening every job up for competition for the bowl game. I would throw it all away. I would find the guys who want to play. That is what USC does, and I think they are pretty successful. Yes, they are USC and they get the good players, but they have hard competition every week. We have lost these last 6 games on the line of scrimmage on both sides. We probably have the best offensive line in the Pac 10 physically, yet we let Stanford and Washington push up around. We have defensive linemen who were supposed to be great. It is not that hard to play the guys who want to play. But they were crap this year. We had no warriors out there.

Yes, Nate had problems, but this is clearly not a Nate issue. We should have had 45 points in most games. Nate still threw for 60% on the season. Yes, he had turnovers, but so did every other team in the Pac 10. This was a team that thought they deserved it - not that they had to earn it. They crushed Tennessee, and they thought it was gravy from there. That is the problem.

Dennis Erickson plays it differently, and that is why he is successful. He gets guys that only have one shot - make it big in football or else you got nothing. Cal does not have those players. Now, Dennis Erickson is slime. But that aspect of his program is part of what makes his guys play tough.

We need some of those kids on our team. We are not tough. Everyone has too many aspiration - Michalczik - want to be a head coach, forgot that the game is won on the line of scrimmage. Gregory is busy thinking about Washington State. Tedford is frankly the only one who is focused on his job, but forgot that the National Championship is not a goal. Winning each game is the goal. He forgot that, and left Nate in all season, ruining Nate's career.

The good news is, this is just the thing we needed. We will get the kids in who want to play. And we will be much better going forward for this. I truly believe that. Some coaches and players will be let go. The guys who want to win will stay. Because it clearly is not talent. It is will to win, and to put in the hard work. and not to quit.

GO BEARS!!

Saturday, December 1, 2007

Cal vs Missouri

There is a big game today for the Bears, and it takes place in Haas Pavillion. The Bears vs Missouri will be a big indicator of how well we are going to be this year.

Missouri has played 8 games this year, losing twice to Arkansas and Michigan State, two teams who have a strong shot at playing well into march. And they lost both of those by three points. So they are definitely a good team - a type of team that the Bears have to play and win if they want to have any shot of getting through the Pac 10 season semi-intact. In fact, the Bears have a somewhat tougher pre-season than any that I can remember us playing, facing San Diego State, Missouri, and Utah and Kansas State coming up. These are all teams that can win games and will be RPI 100 teams or better at the end of the season. In other words, just about as good or better than Cal last year.

For the Bears to make the Tournament, I think they have to win 18 games. If they do, they have a shot. For a team that for most analysts is the 7th or 8th best in the Pac 10, that is a tough order. The nice thing is, we do have a tougher pre-season than most so we will be able to get in with less than a winning Pac 10 record. I think if we can move through the pre-season undefeated, we will need only 7 or so Pac 10 wins. That would be all victories against the teams slated below us, plus an upset somewhere along the line. The only games that we SHOULD win are against Oregon State and Arizona State. Everything else is going to be a struggle.

So, having the toughest Pac 10 season in years, plus the toughest out of conference schedule in years is a recipe for either the greatest season we will have had in years, or disaster. Tonight will be a big test.

Here is looking at a great Bears season.

GO BEARS!!