Oski Talk

The World is Sane Again

2009-11-25T00:56:00.000-08:00

The bears crushed the furd over the weekend. And when I say crushed, I mean dominated them physically and made them understand that there was not chance they were going to win.

Maybe I was the only one in the stands who knew the Bears were going to win. But I just did not see Jeff Tedford losing to Harbaugh when so much was at stake. This was not for some sort of Pac 10 title or national respect. This was for survival. This was to keep his legacy at Cal alive, and to continue the drum of moving the program along. Here is what happened:

1) We beat two top 25 teams in a row for the first time since 1950.
2) We extended our streak of victories over the furd to 7 of 8.
3) We took the furd out of the Rose Bowl discussion, and put them into the Emerald Bowl or Poinsettia Discussion.
4) We moved ahead of USC in the AP poll.
5) We set the stage for a 10 win season, after all of the problems that we had earlier in the season.
6) We made Tiger Woods cry.
7) We established Jeff Tedford as the guy to take us through the tough times, and to bring us to National Prominence...once again.

That was the best big game that I have ever been to. And the first one I went to was in 1982. But that was before I went to Cal. The 1986 was good, the 2002 one was fantastic. But this one is the best. And it is because this one restored the hope that somehow was losing bear fans.

I have no idea what the deal was with this season. But people were pissed off when the Bears lost three games. Even after everyone knew at the beginning of the season that a 10 win season was good, and a 13 win season was probably not going to happen, the Bear fans were suicidal. But somehow, beating those smug bastards at their place, taking it over, dominating them physically, and picking them off at the end, and taking the field - all of that seems to have made up for so much. Yes, on the message boards, the true haters still try to spew some vindictive dribble, but frankly it is not working. The Bears are back, baby, and fire tested. This season is going to be a growing season for this program. We are only going to get better.

GO BEARS!!
This was a huge win

Big Game is Big

2009-11-19T01:09:00.000-08:00

While laying off posting for a while - very busy at work - and I really did not know what to say about the Oregon State game. But this is a big week, for a lot of reasons.

First, it is clear that Jeff Tedford thought that he had a great team going into the season. He, at least, it sounded like he did, truly believed that they were going to the Rose Bowl this year, or at least compete much harder than has been the case since the first half of 2007 (when the Bears really were dominant).

But when the Oregon Fiasco happened, it killed something in the team. And Riley blew the SC game, because he was nervous and they were fired up. That was a winnable game this year, for sure (as can be clearly seen now, but even then it seemed like it. There were plenty of open looks downfield). But, after that, the Bears put it back together for a few weeks, and went out and won on the road, and came back to Memorial - and Oregon State.

That was a Bizarro day. The fans were absolutely dead from the get go. It was like the Oregon and SC loss killed the fans, and they were hoping that the Bears laid an egg. And, frankly, when the faculty just voted that they would prefer that you not be on campus, it is hard to get up for a game. And then, Best getting hurt changed everything.

I think that took the wind out of the Bears sails for that game (along with the crappy pass interference call on SQT). Also, the hit on Riley. There was no life in the Bears for the rest of the game, until the last drive, where they decided to try to get something going. And it worked.

So the next week, the Bears came in and decided to play a tough defense - they were taking on the run, but also playing tight on the corners. The offense was the offense that Tedford uses when Best is not on the field - meaning a balanced attack that is not telegraphed weeks in advance. Let's face it - Jahvid Best is the best player in the game (I think), but he can not run through walls. He can not single handedly just run around and score. If there are big linemen who he is running into, not much is going to happen. But when Vareen goes in, and Best is out, the Bears seem to play a bit more balanced, and a bit more like the old Tedford Bears. I think there is too much focus on Best in the Tedford offense (at least against good defenses. Against Washington it will not matter). I do not think we will have that problem anymore, unfortunately, since Jahvid is going to be going to the next level soon.

But the fact is that the Arizona game was a game where the Bears came to play, they put on a tough show, and they knocked the Wildcats, most likely, out of contention.

So, what about the Furd? They are the favorites by 8 points - meaning that folks think the Bears totally suck. That is interesting that the Furd got so good in two weeks, and the Bears got so bad. I mean, we did beat a team that beat them last week. We do have a pretty good run defense. We do have a pretty good offense in relation to their defense. If we can go down there and pop the Harbaugh bubble, we win. And this is just the sort of Big game that we can do that in.

I do not believe that Stanfurd has overall better talent than us, except maybe at QB. But Riley can have those special games, and if he is on, he is good. As good as Luck. I think Vareen is going to get more yards than Gerhart - both are good runners - but our run defense is better. There are lots of ways that the Bears could win. I think we have a decent shot at it. That being said, it would not be shocking if they did not.

But here is where it is different this year. This year, if the Bears win the Big Game, I think we get 10 wins. We beat Washington, and we go to a nice bowl game, and take care of business. And the Furd drops back down to where they should be - crawling and scratching to get some other young coach to come and play for 800K - or about what you get at Nevada, because Harbaugh is on the first train out of town without Gerhart.

But if the Bears lose - all of a sudden, they are second dog in the bay area. And everyone is polishing Toby Gerhart's knob. The media circus will be crazy.

This is such a critical game for Cal at this juncture that I dare say it is the most important game of Tedford's career. Not that it is career ending, by any stretch. I think no matter what, the Bears are much improved next year. But I do think pulling out a 10 win season this year, beating the Furd, who will be top 25 if they beat ND at the end of the year, is a good season. And we continue to build. The Naysayers will not go away (do they ever? i just got off a huge email battle with all the Ohio State guys calling for Tressel's firing - they are only going to the Rose Bowl for the first time in 13 years - not good enough.) but the truth is that the Bears are a young team, and with the SAHPC, and the new stadium remodel, they will only get better.

I like Jeff Tedford. I think he is a good man, good for Cal, and good for the sport in the Bay Area. He is not an ass, like Harbaugh. He is respected by other coaches. If you do not think so, you are a loon. That being said, it would be nice to get more consistently at 10 wins. That is my goal for the team - to year in and out win 10. Because if we do that, we will be top 10 every year, get better recruits, and eventually one fine day win the Pac 10 and probably a national championship. It is about consistency. The Pac 10 is tough, as we all know. This year, no one has less than 2 losses in the Pac 10.

To get to that level, you need the players. We have not had a great QB that can get us there, as well as the quality backups that we need. We have had injury problems on the QB. And so, that is something that JT needs to work on. Maybe they need more time with the second and third string guys running the offense in practice. In any event, it would be nice to see a scenario develop where we have juniors and seniors running the team, and not freshman and sophomores - like Nate and Riley were. We need to get to where the guys coming off the bench are in the program for three or four years before they start. SC had that until this year. What happened to them? We have been in that boat for years. When Nate went down, we had a freshman backup. Really? That is not good. Same as when Rogers left - a JC transfer who sucked, and Nate. Nate went down, and we had the Ayoob year. Nate played well his sophomore year, but starting at Tennessee as your first real game? Not good.

You see the issue. It seems like we are developing some good talent down stream. I think Riley will be getting better. If he has been on the bench until this year, I think he would be better than he is now. More confident, less worried about his legacy at Cal, and the Nate thing. But having him there, and waiting for Sweeney and / or Mansion to be a junior or senior is fine. But the bottom line is, if the Bears are going to make a run at getting better, they need to have some stability and get some of the QBs moving up the chart. But this game sets the stage for that movement.

This is a really big game.

GO BEARS!!

Where are we?

2009-11-05T10:23:00.001-08:00

The Bears take on Orogon State this weekend, after enjoying a three game winning streak, and finally winning a come from behind game on the road - the first one of those in years.

In looking at the Pac 10 right now, the Bears have about a 2% chance of getting to a BCS game, so there is still some hope. In all likelihood, the Pac 10 will get both Oregon and SC into a BCS game this year, and the Pac 10 will for the first time in years have two representatives to the BCS. But the Bears still have the chance to win out and tie SC in the standings for second place.

In looking at the other teams in the Pac, it is interesting to note that Cal has played three teams with losing records UCLA, Washington State and Maryland (although, Maryland still does have a chance to win the ACC atlantic divisions...). Oregon has played 4 losing teams - including Purdue, Washington State, Washington and UCLA. Of course, the difference is, Oregon has also played 4 top 25 teams, and beaten 3 of them. Stanfurd has played 5 teams with losing records, and only two teams with winning records. Those two teams are the two losses for the season (they did beat 4-4 Arizona State). So, they also lost to Wake Forrest, who has a losing record.

Meanwhile, Washington has not played anyone with a losing record, nor has UCLA. Washington State has only played one team with a losing record.

Oregon State has beaten one team with a winning record so far this year - Stanfurd. Similarly, the Bears have only beaten one team with a winning record - Minnesota.

Both teams have done relatively well on offense, and have suspect defenses. Both teams really need this win. But the Bears need it more. Oregon State still has two games against weaker opposition (Washington and Washington State) as well as the Civil War remaining. The Bears need to win at home to at least guarantee a positive win total for the year. The Bears are sure to be favored in each remaining game, but not by much. The Bears are 7 point favorites this weekend.

This season could be a turning point for Cal. Win out, and match our best season win total in decades. Lose one or two and it is not so bad. But a total collapse could bring about real problems for the team and JT. I do not think that will happen. I think that winning on the road - we are 3-1 on the road this year, with two winnable games remaining - is great for the Bears. We generally do well at home, and I think we will do so again this year. But beating an Oregon State team which has won 8 of the last 10 against the Bears is critical.

GO BEARS!!

Washington State Recap / Moving On

2009-10-26T19:48:00.000-07:00

After huge wins over UCLA and Washington State, the state of the Bear Nation is predictably gloomy. Because that is what Cal fans are, sadly. The Bears went on the road to win at UCLA - the first road victory in LA for Jeff Tedford since he has been the Cal Coach - and were promptly saddled with the fact that UCLA sucks. So, they decimated Washington State by 32 points, and the questions keep coming: why did we give up so many (17) points? Why does the defense suck so much? We could never do this against a real team.

Never mind that in 11 offensive plays the Bears had 28 points and three consecutive three and outs. Or that, leading 35 to 3 three minutes into the 2nd quarter, they started rotating in the scrubs. The Bears defense sucks. We are doomed.

Eeyore was the yell leader of the guy sitting next to me at the game. I almost had to punch him.

Yes, we all want National Championships and undefeated seasons. But guess what - there are 120 other teams that also want that. So that means that, statistically speaking - since we have 5 already, we have about 500 years to wait for another one. So get over it. And start to enjoy the season that you have. The Bears are 5-2, and they have a reasonably good chance to go to 10-2. All of the remaining games are winnable. We have our two toughest remaining games at home. And if we go to 10-2, we have a chance at going to 11-2, which would be the best team that JT has assembled yet at Cal. And most of the team comes back next year, along with a new facility very far along, and the makings of a new stadium. Our funding is getting developed for long term success.

There is such a hunger for a BCS game right now that it is incredible. It is like Heroin for some of these guys. What is going to happen if we go and LOSE? I think there really could be people who end it all. If that is the case, man, just quit going. Give it up. It is not healthy and it is not good for society.

There are huge issues with the University right now. Funding issues, structural issues, legislative issues - essentially the future of the University is being threatened by the state legislature (who, by the way, is perfectly willing to build a stadium in LA). Focus some of your energy in getting those issues fixed. Focus your energy in writing you state senator and representative on these issues, instead of writing on message boards and article commentaries. The pain I hear out there is too much.

As far as it goes, if the BCS was set up for the last 12 years as it is today, the Bears probably would have gone twice - in 2004 and 2006. We will get our chance again. I think this year the Pac 10 gets two teams in, if Oregon and SC keep winning except against themselves. The Pac 10 is developing a reputation for being a good conference - better than in the past. That is good news and bad news for the Bears. If Oregon wins out, then it is no longer SC and the 9 dwarfs. Cal and SC would be tied for 2nd, and Oregon would get the nod. SC could go play Florida in the sugar bowl - a game people would pay a lot of money to see.

The Bears do have some issues on the team. The defensive secondary and the LBs look like they need some improvement, and the mindset of Kevin Riley is critical. That being said, these kids can improve and they will. And, regardless of what people say - it is not the schemes of the coaches that are causing these lapses. It is the execution of the field. That is the least fixable part of the game - fixable generally only through recruiting. So stop killing yourselves because the kids are not as good as you thought they were. Over time, we will get better.

GO BEARS!!

A bit of perspective

2009-10-13T13:57:00.000-07:00

Last week I did not post really - it was very hard to figure out what to say. Basically, there are a few things that rumble around in the brain after going through another brutal loss like that:

1) The Bears gave up.

2) The Bears could have won.

3) The Bears need a QB who can hit the side of a barn.

4) The Bears need new coaching.

But those are all immediate thoughts, and many of them are probably incorrect. So on Wednesday I looked at the game again, and saw a lot of positives. A lot more than I thought I would. So I decided that I was putting back on the Rose tinted glasses and needed to take a chill.

Anyway, based on further reflection, here is what I believe at this stage of the season:

1) Oregon is better that we thought at the beginning of the year. They have decent players at a lot of positions, and they have some depth. Defensively, they are pretty good. They could give SC a very tough game in Eugene. This could be the year that they break the spell of the USC dynasty.

2) The rest of the Pac 10 is pretty middle of the road. Oregon State, Arizona, Stanfurd, Arizona State, Washington and UCLA could all see 7-5 seasons. Washington State is the only truly poor team in the conference.

3) Cal is a pretty good team, but a team with a glaring weakness - the passing game. And it is not a receiver issue, or a play calling issue, or a line play issue. It is a QB issue. And for that, Tedford is at fault. It is his job (partially) to develop these young guys that have good talent to become quality division 1 QBs. Kevin Riley is doing a very poor job after the first three games. And it is a matter of confidence. I think he has the physical ability. But he is not mentally tough enough to get the job done, week in and out. He had great games for the first three weeks, number 6 in the country in passing. But the last two games, against tough teams, he folded. He could not hit WIDE OPEN - REALLY REALLY REALLY WIDE OPEN players. And that level of play has impacted the rest of the team. So stacking the box and letting Riley beat you when he can not throw the ball is a disaster for the Bears. Until he can prove that he can throw the Bears will lose against decent opposition. And JT should have done a better job of developing his QBs.

4) But Tedford does not take all the blame - it is also Riley's fault for being a head case. Earn the job. It is not your's just because you were the best QB in Oregon coming out of high school. This is the big time. JT playing someone in front of you is not an excuse to suck when it is your turn. This is your second year of being named the starter. Get over it.

4) The PAC 10 defenses this year are much better than in the past few years. And Pac 10 QB play is much less capable than in the past few years. Having a decent QB on your team this year will give you a huge advantage. Locker, for example, is leading a terrible team to a much improved season. Next year, when Nick Montana takes the field, the Huskies will be dead meat. But for the time being...

5) The Bears had plenty of opportunity to win the game against SC. There were TONS of open men - the play calling was inspired. Even the Wildcat was pretty darn good. The Bears moved the ball fine, but just could not score. It was a very frustrating game. The defense held SC fairly well, considering the time on the field and the constant barrage of three and out for the Bears. Not a stellar defensive gem, but not bad.

6) The Oregon game was a lost cause as soon as we did not finish that first drive. We caved in, and they rose up. It is like they were released from shackles and beat down the man. And, here, there is hope for the Bears. Because we are in the same position that Oregon was at the beginning of the year. Dropped from the standing for losing to Boise State, on the road. Because of a stupid incident after the game. But Boise is now #5 in the country. And Masoli, who, I have to give him credit - is a fighter. And he never gave up and came through against the Bears and has been on a roll ever since. That Boise thing got the Ducks together. They were totally disrespected, and totally written off. Just like Cal is now. I do not think the Bears are the second worst team in the Pac 10. But that is where we currently are ranked according to Ted Miller, of ESPN.

I think at the end of the year, the Bears will win 9 or 10 games. If you looked at the schedule, like many did this summer, and you said that we would have 3 wins and two losses to ORegon and SC, most people would have thought that was reasonable, and that they Bears could still go for 9 or 10 wins. And that would not have been unreasonable. Now, though, because we have two losses to SC and Oregon, we suck.

This game at UCLA is a big game for both teams. UCLA and Cal are similar, in that both were doing well, but have lost the first two conference games. So going down 0-3 in conference is not so good. I think the Bears pull it out. But UCLA has a good defense. They have terrible QBs. So the issue is, do the Bears exorcise the demons of the past 8 years in LA, and take out UCLA, or do we endure another tough week of waiting for the Washington State salve to come to town?

GO BEARS!!

I think this says it all...

2009-10-05T14:25:00.000-07:00

Top 10 games / Picks

2009-10-02T20:58:00.001-07:00

Last week, I was 6-4 straight up, and 4-6 against the spread. And I think I was pretty good, so...

On to the games of the week this week (hopefully I can get to 10 - most of the games suck):

Cal - SC: Bears beat the spread, and win outright (here is the golden rule - always take Cal and bet against SC - that is just good taste). Quite a bewildering game. The typical Tedford haters love to talk about how the Bears are crap, not that good, etc. That may be true, but neither is SC this year. They are down, one of their star players is dramatically and seriously injured, and they have yet to figure out how to score points. I think they are down, and so do a lot of SC fans. Meanwhile, the Bears are suffering under a barrage of "you suck" and are backed into a corner. The question is - do they fight, or do they flee? I predict they put up a good fight, and come out swinging. Hell, this is probably what the coaches have been planning on for the last two weeks.

UCLA at Stanfurd: UCLA supposedly has it all going for them at this time. I think they beat the Furds. The Furds are first in the Pac 10, beating what I think are the two worst teams in teh Pac 10. Then, they lost to Wake Forest. I think UCLA is not bad this year, and seems to have a stout run defense. If Gerhart can be stopped for, say, 150 yards, the Bruins should win. I take UCLA to cover and win. I think Stanfurd gets exposed. The good news on this one - whoever loses I am happy.

Oregon State at Arizona St: This will be a good test for Arizona State. Oregon State is it's typical early season funk. It seems that this year it is a bit more than in prior years. But they still have the Rodgers brothers, and that counts for a lot. I think they take Arizona State down. While somewhat impressive against Georgia last week, I am not sure how good Georgia is, and I do think that Arizona State is just not there yet. This is sort of a game that will show, for both teams, their level. I take Oregon State to win and cover.

Oregon at Washington State: I take Washington State to cover, and Oregon to win. While clearly a better team, I think the Ducks play to their competition this year. And so they are not going to cover by 33.5.

Oklahoma at Miami: I take Miami to cover and to win. Oklahoma has had good luck so far with the porn star as QB thing going, but playing in Miami, there will be a decent crowd, and the Hurricanes will be pumped up. This could go one of two ways: A close game where Miami pulls it out on Jacori Harris heroics, or a Oklahoma blow-out. In a close game, I think Harris is the better pick. OK has a history of losing close ones. In fact, Stoops could be the Big 12 Jeff Tedford. Same with Tressell. In any event, I have a feeling about this one. Miami to win and cover.

Florida State at Boston College: I think Florida State comes back from last week. They play better on the road, and this is a Boston College team not as good in years past. FSU is getting better. I take them to win and cover.

LSU at Georgia: Game where LSU gets exposed. I think Georgia runs all over them. They have been holding on by luck, charm and opponents fear. But Georgia is not afraid of them. They will go down and I see them losing about two or three more this year. Cal moves up a space. Georgia to cover and win.

Washington at Notre Dame: While I would love to see the Huskies beat these guys - just to drop them out of the rankings - it is not going to happen. But I do not think the Huskies get killed - more like a 10 point loss. The line is 11.5. I am taking the Fighting irish to win, but the Huskies to cover. Weis seems not able to win by more than 4 or 5 in any game anyway.

Wisconsin at Minnesota: The Golden Gophers are favored by three at home - meaning basically a push. I think they are getting some good support at home, and probably will do well. I take them to beat Wiskey buy more than three. Maybe that is a Cal homer position, but they were not bad, and they have a great receiver and good, senior QB. That is a good combo in the Big 10. I can see them winning 9 or 10 this year.

Michigan at Michigan State: Michigan State is favored by 3. What the heck is that all about? Michigan is decent, and State is 1-3, losing to ND, Wisconsin, and Eastern Michigan. But they did have a close victory over Montana State. Michigan has beaten both ND and Eastern Michigan. As well as the other two games they played. So what is the deal? The game is at Michigan State, and it is a rivalry game. But I think that Michigan is a pretty good team. I take them to win and cover. This is going to be a shootout. So it could come down to fumbles and interceptions, but I think that a Rich Rodriguez team always is much improved the second year, and this is no exception. The Wolverines could be going into the Ohio State game undefeated. Iowa and Penn State are both beatable, as is Wisconsin. I am taking the Wolverines to win and cover.

Bonus: Navy at Air Force: this is interesting this year, because Army does not totally suck. So the winner of this does not automatically win the Commander-in-Chief trophy. Air Force has better wins, but Navy has better losses. I think Air Force takes this one, even though it is at Navy. I take Air Force to win and cover.

Army, by the way, is favored against Tulane, and is looking for it's third win of the season. It is possible that they are bowl bound for the first time since 1996, and only their 5th bowl ever. I think, in fact, that they get to 7 wins this year. Over the past 12 years, they have averaged just slightly over 2 wins per year. In 1996, they were 10-1, and lost to Auburn in the independence bowl. This year, they will be back: If they win 6, they play in the Eagle Bank Bowl. If Navy wins 6, they play in the Texas Bowl.

Anyway, good luck with your bets this week. Let's try to beat 50%.

GO BEARS!!

Odds and Ends

2009-10-02T18:10:00.000-07:00

The Ducks are thinking about re-instating running back Garrett Blount. I think they should - yes, he cold cocked a guy. But that happens all the time - he just got caught on National TV. Wrong place in the wrong time. Oregon picked a good time to do this - after the big win against the Bears. They are in a positive light now - might as well get what they can. Blount may be a thug, but you have to give the guy a chance. Hopefully he can work out, get in shape and give the NFL a shot. He has a slim chance there, but at least get a shot.

Lots of injuries and big players out of college football this week. Bradford is not going to play in Miami. I am going to take the Hurricanes on that one, even after the loss last week. Tebow was banged up, half of SCs team is out, Clausen for ND is banged up. Lots of problems. So you see upsets. The thing is, the Bears are relatively healthy. But we were creamed. So what is the deal there.

As far as it goes, Matt Summers-Gavin is going to be out, I think, based on a sprained shoulder. He did not play that well last week at Oregon, but that may have had something to do with him being out sick all week. I think that the Bears need pop off the ball every play. SC has a very good defensive line, so far, as usual. The cost of this could be more pressure on Riley. Or, Boskovich could step up. There needs to be an improvement on the offensive line this week in any event.

Most of the other starters are back. Hill is starting again over Hagan. I think that is no big deal this week. Barkley is, so far, not that great. This will be a battle of SC defense against the Cal offense. I think the Bears handle the SC offense OK. The question is, can we score on them. We only scored 3 against them last year down there. If Riley can not hit the open man, it may be the same game over again. Of course, they only scored 17 against us - meaning we held them to their lowest total of the season last year.

I think the Bears can score 28 or so with a big crowd and pretty good talent, hopefully refocused and playing loose. The question is, can SC score that many?

GO BEARS!!

Bears at USC

2009-09-30T09:54:00.001-07:00

The California Golden Bears take on USC this Saturday evening at 5:00 PM.

This is probably the most interesting game in Cal history.

First off, the Bears have / had visions of grandeur. National Championships, Rose Bowl wins, etc. SC has had all of those and more over the last 7 or 8 years with Pete Carroll as coach. But the Bears probably had the biggest upset in the 123 years of Cal football last Saturday at Oregon. 42 to 3 - the number 6 team in the country loses to an unranked foe.

I did not think Oregon was any good, frankly. i though Chip Kelly was a terrible coach, and I thought their defense would stink. And that was based on the way that they were playing so far this year. And as opposed to Cal, who had just gone on the road to Minnesota, and their bright new stadium, and cruised to an easy win. Yes, I know it was tied in the 4th quarter. But the Bears never really lost control of that game, and played pretty well. Were it not for some phantom calls, the Bears would have won by 28. And the thing about that game was that Cal manhandled the Golden Gophers. Who are not a lousy team.

What happened in Eugene is debatable. I think it was just a matter of the Bears coming in and becoming bewildered at their initial lack of success, and panic setting in. They were tight, they were playing not to lose and they could not function. While the Bears are a good team, and have better talent overall than the Ducks, I would say that they do not have better talent if they are not playing at the top of their game all game long. Last year, at Berkeley, Cal dominated that game, and essentially, both teams came back - the Bears with a bit more experience, and the Ducks with a bit less. But the difference was, they had nothing to lose, and we had everything to lose. And we did.

Now, the shoe is on the other foot. Pete Carroll was bewildered by the outcome of the Bears / Oregon game. Stunned. Because he knows the talent level and the skill level was not representative of the final score. Meanwhile, USC is barely getting by in their games, they have lost to Washington, scored only once after the first quarter in the Washington State game, and should have lost the Ohio State game if Jim Tressell was any kind of coach. They are lacking in talent on the offensive side of the ball this year. And this week, one of their top two running backs - Staphon Johnson, had a horrendous accident in the weight room, when the bar he was bench pressing fell on his neck, requiring a 7 hour reconstructive surgery to save his life, and hopefully his voice. He is not out of the woods yet. Carroll is there hours on end this week. They have also lost a number of other players, including the QB, to injury this season. Now, the true freshman QB is back, but not fully healed. The Safety is back, but not a 100%. The Trojans are banged up.

One of the pieces of magic that Carroll has been able to instill in his team is the ability to keep loose. But this really is a season on the brink for them. They have been able to stock-pile talent over the years, but have not been able to get that talent up and going as well as they have in the past. I do not think that the coaches they have brought in have been as good as the ones that have left, at least not yet. They have three new coordinators this year - offense, defense and special teams. They have not been scoring as many points by a long shot, and while Carroll is still presiding over a pretty good defense, they have been in very close games all year long.

That being said, they are still USC. They are in a midst of a huge streak of road games - 4 of 5 - and 6 of 8. They play Notre Dame after the Bears (and a bye week). I think the injury and the nature of it to Staphon Johnson this week takes something off the luster of the Cal game. That type of mortality injected into the lives of invincible young people is a distraction to say the least. For the Bears, they have come down from their lofty perch. But they are not yet free of the burden. They still think they are playing for the NCG. Tedford's job this week is to get them loose. Tell them they are playing for themselves. I think as a coach, he may be too goal oriented. The goals should be smaller: Beat your man on every play. Complete every pass. No fumbles. Not, win the Pac 10. Not go the the National Championship game. The difference between this year and prior years is that in prior years, the Bears were not embracing expectations. And when the lost those expectation were trashed in the second quarter of the Oregon game, they stopped playing. They could have easily come out in the second half of the game and come back. Instead they curled up in a little ball. They were embracing expectations but not understanding that expectations are what people think you should do. Performance is what you do to meet expectations. And if you perform on each play, and have success, then the team will meet expectations. But the expectations should not be the goal. The grade on each play should be the goal. If you get burned, so what. Try again.

I hate it when people leave early during a game. Dodger fans. Well, the Bears were a bunch of Dodger fans last week. Let's see if this week they can be like the fans during the down years of the Joe Kapp era - the 25,000 who continued to show up each week to see the Bears perform. They would cheer a great play, or a great series. Rarely expecting to win, but always expecting a great effort. Knowing that some day the Bear would rise again - just maybe once - in their lifetime. That is what needs to happen this week. SC is down, the Bears are down. Who is going to win these individual battles this week? I am not expecting a victory, although I am not expecting a loss. But what I do expect is an effort each play. I expect to be rewarded for coming out to see my team by effort each play.

Last week, Tedford said the team was not tense, but intense. I am not sure if I want an intense team. I want a loose team that plays with abandon. If I wanted an intense team, I would root for Arizona. Lot's of bluster, lot's of collapse. I want a team that loves what they do, and gives it their all. That is what the Cal Bears should be about.

GO BEARS!!

BCS Ranking Next Week

2009-09-27T17:52:00.001-07:00

Next week, the official BCS rankings come out. Before all the bloodletting about how can you even think about BCS rankings, I simply bring this up as a matter of conversation.

I will say that, like two years ago, this is a season where there really is NO dominant team - except maybe Alabama. Texas has looked weak at times, as has Oklahoma, Houston, Okie State, and the rest of the big 12. I think those guys waste each other this season. And BYU did everyone a favor by wasting Oklahoma and then getting wasted by Florida State, who got wasted by South Florida and Miami, who was taken out by Virginia Tech, who already lost to Alabama. So they are all flawed. Except for Alabama.

Florida has not looked perfect, and I do not expect them to go through the SEC championship game against Bama. At this point, I would put them as a lock for the SEC.

For the other conferences, Virginia Tech looks good for the ACC, as does South Florida or Cincinnati for the Big East. The Big 10 looks to be a tough conference this year, with Iowa, Michigan, and Ohio State battling it out. I would not be surprised if Minnesota, Wisconsin and Penn State win 8 or 9 each this year as well, taking some of the front runners out. So that is probably a conference where no one come through unscathed.

As it stands in the Pac 10, I think everyone will have at least one loss. The winner will be the one who can bounce back from the loss. It could still be the Bears. The Bears are ranked 11 in the computers to the Ducks 10. Depending on who wins this weekend, the Bears can be in the top 12 again, or out altogether. As far as it goes, SC is currently 7 in the BCS, and Arizona, UCLA and Washington are still ranked in the 20's and 30's. All of them have the opportunity this year to go all the way. Oregon State so far is out of it, losing to Arizona and Cincinnati - two tough teams. These are all games that the Bears could win but are also all tough games.

At this point, there is no clear leader in the Pac 10. UCLA plays Oregon in two weeks in LA. Then, the Bears come into town. That is a tough series for them, but they have looked good. I think the Ducks beat Washington State this week, and go to LA a bit overconfident (see Cal Bears, September 226, 2009). Then, they go to Washington, and then have SC at home. That is a tough road.

In any event, the Pac 10 is wide open. If the Bears do win this weekend, they will be ranked in the top12 of the BCS, going to LA to see what they can do about breaking the LA curse. If they can handle that - I think pretty much everyone will look back at this weekend as a difficult lesson learned. If not - watch for the long knives.

GO BEARS!!

Climbing off the Cliff

2009-09-27T16:56:00.000-07:00

The Bears were beaten and embarrassed yesterday. The question is why? They certainly have the talent to have beaten the ducks - they have done so 4 of the last 5 meetings, with virtually the same cast coming back on both sides. It is not just a question of do they always lose a big one. Tedford teams have won plenty of big ones, including two years ago in Eugene, in a matchup similar to yesterday.

Basically, the Bears read their clippings, and fell apart when the Ducks did not roll over. They simply gave up in the middle of the second quarter. Really, they gave up after two three and outs in the first quarter.

Here is the deal: Tedford changed this year. He has a new philosophy - embrace the expectations. They were highly ranked. They knew they should win. So when they were not, they did not know what to do. In the early years, they were the underdogs. In the later JT years, they have started to read the clippings. And have had two dramatic failures.

This was a dog fight, and we were the big stupid lab who ran home after the scrappy street dog beat the crap out of us. The Bears collapsed because they thought they were too good to lose - and everyone else did as well - at least those close to Berkeley. Some in the National press and in SEC territory picked the Bears to collapse. They were right. These Bears have not had a collapse like this. Hopefully this can turn into a good thing. The alternative is too hard to imagine (well, actually, it is not that hard to imagine - we already lived it 10 years ago).

Oregon, on the other hand, was written off after a bad loss and a stupid player trashed their reputation. Their QB was dragged around in the mud. They could have had a huge blowout loss and no one would have thought too much about it. They decided that they were not going to roll over. They had the will of the underdog. And that is why we did not survive.

The only question now is can the Bears toughen up. Give SC a good game - even win it, as they can - and they are back in the hunt for a tough Pac 10 Championship. I think the Bears can and will do it. I do not believe that this is the team that will totally fold on the season. It could happen. Kevin Riley may be too fragile. Maybe that is why Tedford put Sweeney in - he is tired of the headcase QB. He trusts a guy from Fresno. Who knows (although he did not look good when he was in). In any event, Riley is the man, and he needs to step up. If he does not, JT need a quick hook, and to move on without mercy.

As far as it goes, I do believe there were some basic tactical errors yesterday that really killed the Bears. First, when you get the ball on the Oregon 20 - just run it up the gut. You need to establish the run game. The first play after a turnover, you try to make a big splash. But when you fail, you now have to pass. And when the line is passblocking on the first play - they look like a bunch of wussies. They needed to get the big hits in RIGHT NOW. Run up the middle, up the side, etc. Establish that you are not going to get pushed around. Do not put the game into an unproven QBs hands at Autzen, in a super loud stadium. From the first play, the Bears were on their heels. We went to the air far too much, and let them get out of hand. Yes, Best only had 55 yards on 16 carries - but if you ran 10 times in a row to start the game, he would have had 100 yards by then. When you only run in totally obvious running downs, it is difficult to run. It is not too complicated. So they have 8 in the box - you are afraid of that? He has faced that his whole career. Very bad play calling and frankly just chasing the score. Put a TD or two on the board in the first half and the game is 100% different.

Second, defensively - last year we attacked. This year, we tried to contain. Dumb and dumber. Masoli needs to be hit about 10 to 15 times before he falls apart. We were never in the backfield. We need 5 or 6 guys in the backfield all day long. He can not throw under pressure. But we gave him all day. And they have a young line, but it is not too hard to contain three guys with 6 blockers. Poor play calling on the defensive side.

Basically, we decided to play finese football this game, and got our clocks cleaned. Play this way against SC, and the score will be a lot worse. Come at them hard - a freshman QB, poor running game, etc, and we will do OK. Obviously this is the worst coached game of the JT era.

GO BEARS!!

Second,

AAAAAAAAGGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!

2009-09-26T16:29:00.000-07:00

Worst loss since September 11, 1999 - in the middle of the Holmoecaust (45 - 0 at Nebraska).

Who want's my SC tickets?

Early Scores

2009-09-25T21:55:00.000-07:00

Old Miss laying an egg against South Carolina is interesting. They are going to drop like a rock into the 15 rank level. I do not see them seeing the top 10 again this year unless they beat Alabama and then Florida in the SEC championship game. Good news for the Bears if they can win this week.

Also, Missouri wins a tight one against Nevada. The Big 12 once again showing it;s fearlessness scheduling a creampuff and almost losing it all. No votes for them, I think.

The Preseason is almost done. I am excited to see the other teams start to drop like flies. If the Bears take this against the Ducks, look to see gameday in Berkeley next week, and hype like you have never seen it. The Bears love hype at home. It is the pressure on the road that has sometimes gotten to them.

GO BEARS!!

Top Ten Picks

2009-09-25T13:11:00.001-07:00

I am going to try, on a weekly basis, to pick what I think are the top ten games of the week. We'll see how I do. If I suck, then maybe we won't continue (and I can give up the dreams of making my 401K savings back in Tahoe this year). I will pick against the spread. Fair warning - I think I am second to last in the pick'em pool that I am in, losing to a guy who never watches any college football at all. But I will try to elucidate my reasoning behind the picks. Mostly, I think, I pick teams that I do not hate. So this will be an exercise for me to be dispassionate about football, and that will be difficult. But I do not think I will pick against the Bears this year. So that should give me a leg up on all of these.

Cal at Oregon: The Bears have a complete offense and defense. Oregon can score on special teams, but the Bears have not had anyone break one yet. Field position could be an issue on the road, like it was last week against Minnesota. The Bears would have won by 28 if not for some blown calls and field position. Oregon, on the other hand has a decent enough defense, but not elite by any stretch. They are weak up front on both the offense and the defense. They have a strong running game and a weak passing game. If the Bears can stop the run, they win. If they can contain the run, they win. If the can not stop the run, it will be a shootout, and the Bear win. I think the Bears by 14.

Washington at Stanfurd: Washington is on a high, and is rebuilding. Jake Locker is the real deal. This is a game for both teams that could determine whether or not they play in a bowl game. I do not think that Washington's defense has all the players that they need, but they have a good coordinator. Meanwhile, the mouth that roared who coaches the Furd has already beaten Sarkisian and Holt when they were at SC. So he knows how to attack them. And they played well again the next year when everyone thought that the Cardinal would wilt under the evil eye of SC. I think that this week exposes the Washington win for what it was over SC - a overachieving team who needed it more than SC needed it. It also will expose SC's offense as something that is really terrible at this point. I take the furd with the win, but it is going to be close. So take the Huskies with a 7.5 point Furd favorite.

Georgia at Arizona State: Arizona State looks great on paper right now - stats are beautiful. Meanwhile, Georgia lost to Oklahome State, who lost to Houston. That being said, I do not think that the Sun Devils are back. I just do not think that they have been recruiting the type of players to get the job done on the road in a pretty hostile SEC environment. Georgia has the players and the home field advantage. I think they get up for this one. But it is a 12 point spread. So I take Georgia to win, and ASU to have the morale victory of beating the spread.

Oregon State at Arizona: Oregon State just lost to Cincinnatti, who I think is the best college football team in Ohio. Arizona lost to Iowa, who is the best football team in Iowa. By similar spreads. I think Oregon State is the better team this year, and better coached. Arizona has QB issues. This is just a coaching call - I like Mike Riley better than Stoops. Both probably have the same level of talent. I take Oregon State and they beat the 3.5 point spread.

Florida State at South Florida - South Florida is trying to get to the same level as Florida State. They are looking at this game as a statement game. Florida State is trying to capitalize on their huge win over BYU. The Spread is 14.5, so FSU is favored by quite a bit. But University of South Florida is a team that see's destiny in their overtaking the other Florida schools. They are a program on the march. So I guess I think this game is going to be closer that projected. USF (ranked number 2 in the country just a few years ago - right after the Bears lost to Oreogon State) is not a bad team, and has speed and a good system. They recruit from a great recruiting pool. They are simply a step behind Florida State. The thing is, they will want it a bit more than FSU this week. I think they lose, but cover the spread. Take the Bulls.

Miami at Virginia Tech - this is an interesting game. Virginia Tech lost to Alabama by 10. Little offense for the Hokie's in that game, but a true beamer ball game. Scored off a return, lots of positive turnovers, and still they lost. Miami, on the other hand, has been money this year with plenty of offense. The question is, have they really been tested. They have had the toughest two game schedule so far, playing at Florida State and against Georgia Tech. Both twp 25 teams, and they were pretty dominant against Tech. I think they take this one, as they have the fire. This is for the marbles in the ACC coastal Division, and whoever comes out of here has the inside track to a BCS game. I take Miami to cover their 3.5 points on the road at Virginia Tech. i like both coaches, but I think the U has something to prove.

TCU at Clemson - TCU is in the position to make a run for the BCS game over Boise if it can bring this game home. Clemson is in the run for, well, nothing. They already lost to Georgia Tech. They have beaten a Middle Tennessee team that is not as crappy as they could be (the beat Maryland for the second year in a row) and Boston College. But I think TCU take this game. They have more to lose. The game is at Clemson, so that is a factor. The spread is only 2.5, so I am going to take TCU to cover. I think they are a borderline top 25 team and Clemson is a borderline top 50 team.

North Carolina at Georgia Tech - I am going to take Tech to cover the 2.4 points, only because North Carolina has not been challenged yet this year. They have played CT, the Citadel, and East Carolina. Georgia Tech has a great running game, and is difficult to defend. North Carolina has not had to deal with that type of offense this year, and so it is hard to deal with unless you have superior talent. And I think the talent level is about the same. So I take Tech to beat the spread.

Iowa at Penn State - Similarly to Georgia Tech and Iowa, I am going to take Iowa only because they have played other real teams. This is the first real team that Penn State is facing this year, even though they are a 9.5 point favorite. Even though it is in College Station, I see a letdown game for the Nittany Lions. Iowa is a tough team and they will play hard. I do not think Penn State is as good as they have been ranked, and I do not think that they have a great offense. I predict a score in the low 20's, with Iowa taking it. Penn State has lost a lot from last years team. They replace but I do not think they totally are ready. This is my upset special of the week.

Texas Tech at Houston - While this is a big game in Texas, and a Huge Game for Houston, I think Tech makes a statement hear about the Texas game. They can hang with Houston and put up points with the best of them. Taking a page out of the Tech playbook is not like taking the Tech playbook. A lot of the Houston coaches came from Tech, but go with the Master on this one. Tech over Houston. There is no spread.

Let's see how we did on Sunday.

GO BEARS!!

Bears at Oregon

2009-09-25T04:03:00.000-07:00

The California Golden Bears take on the Oregon Ducks Saturday for what looked like, in the pre-season to be a tough game. Then, Oregon imploded at Boise State (Boise tried to give the game away but the Duck's did not want it), they struggled to beat Purdue by 2 points at home (one of the worst teams in the Big Ten) and beat a Utah team which also looked a lot better in pre-season.

Oregon lost a TON of players from a team last year that the Bears handled handily in Berkeley (26 to 16). Cal, on the other hand, is a much stronger team. This game is in Eugene, so there is the possibility that the Road crowd will make the Bears a bit nervous. However, last time we played there in this position, against a Dennis Dixon as a Senior led team, the Bears pulled it out even with an injured Nate Longshore, who did not pass for the entire 4th quarter. Autzen Stadium is not a Bear trap. This is one game where the team will be up, and will be ready to play against.

Most of the players had a Oregon Scholarship offer. All of the players know JT and Ludwig coached there. JT is not going to let Oregon off the hook on this game, guaranteed. He always pulls out the stops, and gets the offense flowing.

Obviously, this year, our best foot forward is Jahvid Best. That being said, we will probably start with pushing it up the gut. One of the best ways of taking a home team out of it is by running up the gut for three scores in a row. The Front running fans at Oregon, who trickle in during the half to see what the score is (particularly in a 12:30 game, when they want to be boozing it up before hand) are not going to be loud if they show up and the Bears are cruising. I think the Bears defense can clearly handle Masoli. He can take a hit, but not 15 or 20. Which is what he is going to get as the Bears take over this game. This is a statement game for the Bears about who wants the Pac 10. I think they know that, and I think Tedford's comments this week - even if not true - are a testament to that mind set. When he said that his players were practicing with intensity - not tense - but intense - that is a signal to the team. And I expect that they all know, this is the big week to show the world that the Bears can play on the road, they can win the games they need to, and they can take this title this year.

Meanwhile, back at USC....

Pete Carroll drags his QB under the bus, basically telling the media that he sucked, he was lucky not to have three or four more picks, and that Barkley is going to start- even though Barkley himself thinks he is not healed yet.

This is going to be interesting to see when Washington State goes after Barkley. One tough sack on that shoulder and he is out for the rest of that game, as well as the Cal game. Pete must be in a panic. The Bears are coming up next, he has no QB - he is thinking total implosion. I do not see them losing to Washington State - that is whey they are on the schedule. But really - he is kinda freaking out about his offense right now, and it is interesting to see how it is all going to go down when it finally does go down. There is not a lot of pretty under that smooth exterior.

Speaking of injuries - there was a bout of flu on the team, and maybe more than one. Matt Summers-Gavin went down for a day or so, but is apparently back practicing. Syd, however, is out with a sore back, and possibly a flu. So he is not playing right now. He needs to get better, before tomorrow.

Spencer Ladner will be out for a few weeks longer than expected. That is a difficult position for the Bears, as we have lost one to early NFL aspirations, one to injury already. I think we are down to five, but only two with any real experience playing. That is an area to keep an eye on.

Jahvid Best seems to be doing fine, after resting his foot up for a few days after the Minnesota game.

GO BEARS!!

Bits and things

2009-09-22T09:59:00.000-07:00

USC is tied for last place in the conference with Washington State. I guess this weekend is the game to see who really is the worst. ( i know that this is probably the one time i will ever get to write that, so...)

Maryland lost to Middle Tennessee State for the second year in a row, bringing down the rankings of the Bears in some computers. But, actually, Middle Tennessee State is kinda for real this year, beating Memphis while only losing to Clemson so far. their BCS average computer ranking right now is 53rd. I predict at the end of the year that Maryland get Bowl eligible again. They will creep up on some folks. Unless, like Sampson, Ralph Fridgen has lost something by shedding the 100 pounds he lost.

Oregon had probably the ugliest victory of the weekend, with Jeremiah Masoli passing 4 of 16 attempts, for a total of 95 yards and a pick. They won by rushing a freshman for over 150 yards. The Bears have a pretty good run defense. Let's put it on Masoli's shoulders to win this game.

USC has scored two offensive touchdowns in the last two games. The three yard plunge after the interception return against Ohio State I am excluding. LSU scored 31, and IDAHO scored 23 against Washington. USC - 13. WOW!!! Looks like the old adage about a senior QB in the Pac 10 is true. Jake Locker is the real deal.

GO BEARS!!

The Way Forward

2009-09-19T23:30:00.000-07:00

The Bears, i think, now have the inside track for the Rose Bowl. Crazy I know. But looking at the results from today, there are a few things that are apparent:

1) USC does not have a good offense. Which is surprising since they return 9 offensive started from a team that was pretty good. But I guess Mark Sanchez was a pretty good QB, and there was a reason why Carroll was PISSED when he left. Until they can score more than 20 on a decent team, they are going to be hurting. Maybe Barkley will be the guy in time, but not yet.

2) Oregon State lost at home to Cincinnatti, who is a pretty good team. The Bears get OSU at home, and unless they are much improved they will have a hard tome beating the Bears.

3) Oregon beat Utah, which is a ranked team, but not nearly as good as they were last year. Oregon could be a pretty good team. The loss to Boise was a big one, but this win brings the Ducks back onto the map. That being said, I do not think they match up well with the Bears. They have a lousy defense, and Masoli is just not going to do well against the Bears passing. And their running game is not up to snuff. I think the Bears score well over 30, and hold the Ducks to less than 25.

4) Washington - WOW!!! Are they going to run the table? THEY BEAT USC? I already had an email talking about their National Championship potential. No chance. But they should win a few this year. The question is, will they be good enough at the end of the season to scare the bears on the last game? But good for them to take care of the Trojans.

5) Texas is not as good as I thought, as Colt McCoy seems to be not as good as last year. I am sure they will get better, but it was not a great outing for them. It will be interesting to see if OK takes them out.

6) BYU takes themselves out of the equation. A huge loss for the Mountain West conference today with losses by their standard bearers by mid-level BCS teams (FSU and Oregon). That is what happens when they play decent teams over time. Boise is smart - they have only one decent team per year, and if they get by them, see you in the BCS.

7) Florida beat Tennessee by about the same score as UCLA did. But UCLA just scrapped by a lousy Kansas State team. So either Florida is not that good, or UCLA is pretty good but just bad today ....

8) Florida State is pretty good, and so is Miami. The ACC could be coming back. VA Tech beat Nebraska today in a close one. I think all three are ranked in the top 25 this week.

9) We have no idea really how good Alabama is, or Mississippi, or Florida, or Penn State. They should all shake out in a few weeks, as they play each other and others in their conferences. But they will all be ahead of the Bears. Maybe LSU will be as well.

10) ULCA, Stanford, ASU, Washington State all beat really lousy teams today (but of course, Washington State in overtime).

12) Arizona lost to Iowa and it was not really that close. They should not be a problem this year.

GO BEARS!!

Bears Beat the Golden Gophers

2009-09-19T22:52:00.001-07:00

In a huge game today, Cal beat the Golden Gophers of the Big Ten. Jahvid Best rushed for five touchdowns, and they get great game-day coverage all day. Kevin Riley has a great 4th quarter to bring the Bears back from a 21-21 tie to win by 14.

So, all sounds good. But there were some issues today that the Bears have to work on.

First, in typical Cal fashion, they focused on something that they wanted to focus on, and did great. They did not want to come out flat, so they kicked some serious ass in the first quarter. Jahvid Best had a huge first half, with 3 TDs, and over 120 yards. But starting in the second quarter, the Bears let up a bit, and the Minnesota GGs had a way to get back into the game. Minnesota's offense started to get untracked and their QB started connecting with their All American wide receiver. While the Bears were strong against the run (less than 50 yards) the Gophers were doing well on occasion with their passing game.

Don't get me wrong. The Bears should have dominated this game. They were more physical than these guys, and they were more talented. They had more yards passing, rushing and three interceptions. They rushed against a team that is great against the rush. In the 4th quarter, when they needed it, Kevin Riley stepped up and made the plays to beat the Big 10 team on the road.

But they did not look dominant from end to end. I think that is something about the Bears, and something about Minnesota.

First, about Minnesota. They are better than I thought, and certainly better than the teams we have played (and, yes, Maryland lost to Middle Tennessee State today, so...). They were tough in their passing game, with what I would say was a truly heroic effort by their receiver, Decker (8 catches for 119 yards). Cal will not face another receiver like that this year, I do not believe. Even after he split his chin open on a great hit by Cattouse, But he held on to score. This was an electric game for Minnesota, that I think will launch them to probably a pretty good season. They had a big, electric vibe going at their new stadium, against the highest ranked team that they will face this year, and the Bears held up well. But they will be all right, is my guess, as they move through the Big Ten.

For the Bears, they were good enough and talented enough to win by 28 or 35 against this team. But they were inconsistent with their pressure. My guess is that they thought Minnesota would fold, and when they did not, luckily for the Bears they had enough to come back and win.

What the Bears are not used to is being the USC -like target. Cal has huge expectations this year. They need to come through games like this and win, but also to be aware that everyone they play from now on - they will be the highest ranked team that they face. And they will be gunning for the Bears.

There were some miscommunications on the defense, some burned d-back coverages. But all in all, the Bears showed a pretty dominant defense, with three guys collapsing the line on pass rush, and holding the running game to under 50 yards. The offense was pretty efficient, with no INTs and only losing one fumble when it bounced off of a Cal player on a punt.

Speacking of Special teams....UGG!!! I think this was a particularly bad day. But there was the one punt where it was muffed, there was a lack of coverage on the kickoff coverage team, and there was an issue with a snap or hold or something which made the kicker to stutter step on a field goal attempt and miss. There was also a hit on a punt return which the referees called for a helmet to helmet hit, which was a lousy call, and probably in and of itself was the cause of a 14 point swing.

Even barring all of that, the Bears were victorious. So, I guess I am happy. But there is a long way to go.

GO BEARS!!

Geritol Moment

2009-09-19T22:45:00.000-07:00

The old guy on EPSN College Football review (Lou Holtz) couldn't remember the team that beat Minnesota today. He gave the "helmet Sticker" to "Jahvid Best, the running back from.......(can't remember) 131 yards who rushed for 5 TD's. (Then, the light comes on for him)> as OREGON beats Minnesota. That sucks. He needs to retire - it is getting embarassing and I think it was actually uncomfortable all day watching him try to get the words out.

Pretty Nice Saturday

2009-09-18T14:34:00.000-07:00

The Bay Area is going to be beautiful this weekend, with temperatures in the 80's around the Bay. A perfect day to sit home and watch the great slate of Pac 10 games that are going to be on all day long.

First, the Bears at Minnesota, starting at 9:00 am. I expect to be halfway through with my first pot of tea a toast when the Bears are up by 21.

Now - I have a dillemma. Soccer for my oldest is at 11:30. I need to be there, I guess, since I am the coach. But I can not figure out if I just leave at halftime and do not listen to Starkey, or come back and watch. I would like to just watch, but my gut tells me that someone will spill the beans anyway.

After that, Arizona vs Iowa. That is a good matchup for the Pac 10, as Iowa is one of the better Big 10 teams. This will be a test to see if Arizona has really turned a corner, or if Stoops is on his way out. Kirk Ferentz is an old friend of Stoops, and so this will be a good natured rivalry. Ferentz just got his new contract. I wonder if Stoops is hoping that makes him a bit soft. Like it did a few years ago after he re-negotiated to a huge deal. I think that Arizona takes it - they are a bit more hungry at this point. That being said, Iowa is not slouch and I would not be surprised to see them blow the wildcat's out. They are kind of a hot and cold team.

At the same time, SC plays the Huskies, with all of the internal machinations that the announcers will be crowing about all game (frankly, I do not think I can watch this game) and Oregon takes on Utah.

I will be paying special attention to the Oregon game, as Utah is no slouch, but the Ducks should take them. Oregon were close last year (actually should have won), and Utah had a much better team then. If Oregon does not win at home, write them off. Barely squeaking by Purdue is not the hallmark of a dominant Ducks team.

Then, Oregon State vs Cincinnatti, at home for the Beavers. Cinci is the real deal offensively, and if the Beavers can hold them defensively, we need to worry a bit about them. This is a good test for both teams. I think if Cinci wins they will definitely be in the top 15, probably about 12. Same for the Beavers. Should be a good game.

UCLA plays slacker Kansas State late in the evening. They barely got by UMass, and lost to Louisiana Lafayette. Ouch!! If UCLA does not win by 40 it is a blowout by K State.

Other games of note this weekend:

Tennessee at Florida - revenge game against the mouth that roared. Expect Florida to win by 30.

Notre Dame against Michigan State. Nice matchup. I have no idea who wins this. I think they are about the same, and I would be surprised if this was a blowout. Should be a nice game.

Florida State at BYU. Good for all the right reasons. BYU has big Mo, and FSU has all of the faded pedigree of a 1950's child star. But they still can bite. It will be a good matchup for BYU,. as FSU does still manage to get a speedy team. And that loss to Miami does not look so bad now that Miami looks so good (but we beat them....).

Nebraska at Virginia Tech. I think Tech takes it but who knows. My assumption is based on the fact that I do not think Nebraska's defense is as good as it should be. They may prove me wrong: Bo Pelini is a good defensive coach. But playing at VA Tech, I do not see them winning this one. I still think they are a top 25 team. Maybe 25. Pretty good after the Callahan era.

West Virgina at Auburn - we will see if either of these also rans are any good

Goergia at Arkansas - I think Arkansas is better than people think. And Georgia probably a little worse. Should be close.

Texas Tech at Texas - two year ago when Tech went to Austin there was a lot of hype, and Tech laid an egg. This year, the hype is all about Texas getting revenge for last year, when Tech kept them out of the NCG. I think the pressure is on Texas. Texas Tech is no slouch, and if they get on a roll, forget it. I am going to take Tech on this one, only because I need either Texas or Florida to lose one this year.

So, of the 12 decent games, half are of the Pac 10 variety. Typical. But the SEC is by far the best conference, because, you know, they play - southeastern Louisiana, and Louisiana lafayette, and eastern Carolina, and the rest of their crap schedule. Oh well.

There is a pretty good matchup tonight - Fresneck against Boise. Boise should cruise, but this is probably the last remaining test for them until their undefeated season is over, so hopefully Fresno State can step up.

GO BEARS!!

Minnesota

2009-09-17T22:48:00.000-07:00

The Golden Gophers are a team that is undefeated, beating two teams with names. Not great names, but names. Some people still remember the Syracuse Orange as a decent enough team. And Air Force is always tough when you play them, due to their scheme and their speed. They scored 72 points against a crappy team (Nichols State) but they still scored. And Minnesota held them to 13. So they may have a defense. In fact, their defense, and particularly their run defense, is the heart of the team.

And at Syracuse, they beat a team with a new coach and a new QB, who some of you may remember as the point guard for Duke, Greg Paulus. He went home to Syracuse to help them get started with the new program, after he played 4 years of hoops at Duke. So he is clearly a gifted athlete. It could be said that he made a mistake on the final play of the game, in OT, to allow the Gophers to win. As a measure of Syracuse's capabilities, they went out and lost to Penn State by a score of 28 to 7. Not terrible, but not good.

The point being that Paulus was a passer, not a runner. And he was able to do some things against the defense that was dominant against the Air Force running attack. Minnesota is holding opposing rushers to 3.5 yards per carry, which is not bad.

Not to say that the Bears are in the same place as Air Force or Syracuse. But clearly this is a team that has a strength against the run. And probably a weakness against the pass.

As far as offense goes, they are not that good. They are averaging 21 points against mediocre at best defenses in Air Force and Syracuse. They are a passing team, with experience at QB and the one quality receiver. Clearly the Bears defense should be able to handle these guys.

The key issue to this game is that they will be keyed to stop the run. I think that actually helps our running game, to a certain extent. When people stack the box, it is easy for Best to make huge plays (OK - maybe not easy, but...). That is because if he can make the linebacker miss, he is already in the secondary and has a 50% chance of breaking one all the way. i thought that the way Eastern Washington played him was pretty good - they stayed fairly deep and conservative, and did not over-pursue. While Jahvid had 10 yard runs, with some 5 and some 20 added in, he did not get the huge 80 yard chunks that have been his calling card. So stacking the box, like may teams did to us last year, is actually a good thing. That is why I would like for the Bears to continue to run, this game, and to continue to get Jahvid out there crushing it.

Because this is not a game that we are going to lose. Believe me, i know all the angst and the issues, but the Bears are not going to lose to Minnesota. These guys are not at their first Rodeo. Riley and Jahvid are team leaders, and the Defense has Syd and other stepping up. This is a true team, and they will fight this year for their goals. A lot of the issues on the "Road Loss" devastation are from the time that Nate broke his ankle to the beginning of this season. Is this really the same team as those teams? The answer is no.

Many people are saying that this needs to be Kevin Riley's coming out game. I disagree. I think that we do not need to fear these guys, that we are ready to play on the road, and that we need to take it to them right down their throat. Riley will get his shots - while they are good against the run they do not have a ton of sacks (four total) and no QB hurries. So the pass rush will not be a huge issue - especially if Jahvid is in the backfield. So no pressure on Kevin. These guys are going to be looking for Jahvid, and I say we give it to them. He can pop through on an early Saturday on national TV, get a few 80 yard TD runs in, and call it a Heisman. Let Riley pass a few to keep them honest but stick with the run. We're pretty good at it.

GO BEARS!!

Poll Watching

2009-09-15T17:15:00.000-07:00

So the Bears have risen two rankings per week, to number 8 (well, technically tied for 7 with LSU in the Coaches Poll). they started at 12 in the Preseason, moved to 10 after week one, and now, after the big victory against Eastern Washington, are at 8.

Why did this happen? Because each week two teams ahead of the Bears lost. So, taking a look at this week, let's see if a Bears victory would do anything for us.

BYU plays Florida State. That is actually quite a good matchup. I have to applaud BYU for scheduling pretty good teams this year. Florida State in Bowden's last year is a nice move. But FSU has no chance of beating BYU in BYU's home opener. BYU went on the road to be Oklahoma. They are not going to panic too much about Florida State, who barely escaped Jacksonville State last week. While both are able to put the same amount of yards on the table, BYU is scoring, while Florida State is having a more difficult time. BYU is an 8 point favorite. That being said - this is probably the game that I would say has the biggest possibility of being a stepping stone for the Bears this week. Just wait until you see the other slop on display:

Penn State plays the Temple Owls. Ouch - 30 point favorites. This is a nice game for the Nittany Lions after they played powerhouses Syracuse and Akron. I guess Paterno really wants to have more wins than Bowden.

Ole Miss (Mississippi) is playing Southeast Louisiana. No line available for this game - I wonder why. Mississippi already beat Memphis, which is not a good team this year. But odds are they will continue to roll through the slop until the get to that Killer SEC schedule. You know the one - where they play Vanderbilt, Miss State, UAB (ugly), Northern Arizona, and then Tennessee (where UCLA just won after having less than 200 yards of offense). LSU, Auburn and Alabama are their only real competition. These guys will go 10-2 and have not played anyone.

Alabama is playing North Texas. See above for future schedule. Actually, they even have a weaker schedule. If they are not undefeated going into the Conference Championship game, then they are a joke.

Sc is playing Washington. There is a chance of a letdown after the Ohio State game, but playing at Washington and beating his former coaches, I do not think that Carroll is going to let that happen. This should be a blowout.

Texas is paying Texas Tech. Tech beat them last year, but they are playing in Austin this year. Not bloody likely. Revenge game for the longhorns. I thought that Texas should have been the team in the BCS game last year, but it was not to be. If Tech beats them, they deserve to be a top 15 team. And the big 12 needs to take 4 or 5 steps down the ladder in terms of overall respect. They have good offenses against crappy Big 12 defenses. But BYU beat Oklahoma, and Houston beat Okie State. Are they really that good?

And finally, Florida (who I believe is pretty good) against Tennessee and the Lane Kiffins. If there was ever a team that you really wanted to beat...There is no way that Florida loses this game. Kiffin is the kind of kid that you just wanted to pummel, and Urban Meyer has the tools to do it. Although I would LOVE it if Florida lost. But it is just not going to happen.

So there you have it Bear fans. This week, we are playing to keep place. But wait til next week...when nobody plays anyone again. Except for Cal at Oregon. Then USC. Then UCLA. That is a tough road to hoe, my friends. The sad thing is, people will not give us credit for it, because at the start of the year there is not enough movement in the standings. By the time we play UCLA, most of our competition will still be playing their creampuff schedule. The Bears will be looking down the road at mid level teams, while the other guys will be playing "Name" teams. It could make for an interesting year.

Of course, none of it matters if we do not win each game. But there it is - while this front loaded schedule is probably good for us in that we seem to have a more mature team compared to others in the Pac 10 (SC, UCLA), we also will not have any Marquee wins down the stretch. And we will probably have some close let down wins against mediocre teams - kinda like going to play So Miss and only winning by 14 points. And having Mack Brown on his knees once again.

GO BEARS!!

Bears Roll On

2009-09-14T15:03:00.001-07:00

Thankfully the Eastern Washington team was good enough to mildly scare the Bears, but not good enough to make a serious dent in the National view of their prognosis. Cal is averaging 55 points per game. That is what the folks on the East coast are seeing. And the ranking reflects that. the Bears are 7 and 8 in the Coaches and the AP. They are 6 in the very early BCS reports - current 4 in the computer polls. That reflects currently 4 Computers, which are wildly divergent as is appropriate this time of year. But the bottom line is that the Bears are going to be in the hunt for the rest of the year barring any catastrophe in Minnesota.

As a preview to the rest of the season, I spent a lot of time this weekend watching and re-watching some other games. And I cam away with a good feeling about the Bears. From the SC game, I loved the fact that God's Gift to Football was less than 50% on the day - but is being trumpeted as the next Joe Montana. Really. Maybe he will be one day, but get a grip. His team scored one offensive touchdown all day (I am not giving them the five three yard drive after the interception return). Ohio State looked like they had a decent defense, but I have to believe that it is really the same old Ohio State, but a newly reduced USC team. Matt Leinart would have had 35 on those guys.

Oregon looked pedestrian against a very pedestrian Purdue. They squeeked it out at the end. At home. I never knew what people liked about Masoli. I think we take those guys at home.

There are five teams that I am worried about this season. And they are not Oregon and SC - maybe I am stupid but I think the Bears take care of those guys. They are healthy enough and good enough to do it at this point, against those teams early in the season.

The teams that I have concerns about are, in this order: UCLA, Oregon State, Arizona, Stanfurd, Washington.

Let's start with the Huskies. We see them the last game of the season. At their house, which means cold and wet. They may be trying for a bowl berth, but I doubt it. They are going to be playing for respectability and a decent draft spot for Locker. The Bears possibly could be playing for a Rose Bowl berth or a national Championship berth. Either way, the onus is on the Bears to win, with nothing to lose for the Huskies. That could be a tough game.

Similar situation with the Furd. Down at the farm, late in the year, nothing to gain but pride. They could also be playing for a bowl game, just like last year. That may be incentive for the Bears to knock them out, frankly. But that will be a big game this year. Really.

Arizona seems to be much improved, and is a team that can either have a decent season, or a really bad season. In fact, a coaches get fired season. So it may be a bit of a stretch to worry about them. But they have a crappy schedule this year - they are on the road for their toughest games, starting at Iowa this week. They can either implode or get really good. I think their defense is probably pretty good. Cal get's them at home, so we should do OK, but they have the capability to do something pretty good. They are a top 40 team, which can be dangerous.

Oregon State - I don't care about how they start (even though they have won both of their games so far). The Bears get them November 7, which means that they are finally together and on their regular 7 game winning streak. This year, they played it smart and got by UNLV (barely) at the beginning of the season to get an extra boost. I could see them coming in 6-2, with a Pac 10 loss only to SC coming into Cal. That could make them dangerous. And we all know what happened two year ago at Berkeley when Oregon State came in for Kevin Riley's first start. Ugly.

UCLA - When the Bears go to LA to face the Ruins, they will be undefeated. UCLA has a decent defense, and they have Kansas State and Oregon at home, and Stanfurd away. I think they take those guys. Now, they do have a broken jaw on their QB, and so the absolutely stunning string of UCLA QB injuries continues. But they have other experienced QBs and I do not think they will fall apart. And, frankly, the Bears have not won in LA since JT has been our coach. It is either our year, or not.

All in all - all of these are winnable games. But they are all losable games as well. JT is embracing expectations, and so I think that this means that he is telling his players that they should win all of these games. Maybe that is the right mindset to break the streak of losing one or two per year that you should not. I hope so. The Bears certainly have the ability this year, more than any other at this stage in the game, to run the table. But it is not going to be easy. It sure should be fun, though.

GO BEARS!!

Eastern Washington

2009-09-11T23:27:00.000-07:00

Well, clearly the Bears should dominate Eastern Washington. But this is exactly the kind of game that can bite them in the ass. This is like a preseason game - you need to work on getting people involved, getting Mansion some reps, getting the second and third string guys some time. But for Eastern Washington, this is their Super Bowl. They are fired up and ready to go.

It just happened that today I was at the Concord Hilton at an event, when the Eastern Washington team showed up. I was planning on making a few phone calls tonight to get them ready for the game - at 4:00 am. But the I thought, 1) I do not want to be up at 4:00 AM, and 2) if the Bears can't handle them, they deserve to lose. But I have to say that those guys seemed fired up - there were Beat Cal banners, and guys high-fiving everyone. I was wearing my Cal tie, of course, the day before game day, so I did not stop to say hello. When they get out there tomorrow at game time, there will probably be only about 50K fans, and as is par for the course when playing a lesser team, not as vocal as, for example, when you are playing USC, or Tennessee. There can be an away team advantage for a team like EW, since they will be jacked to play against the biggest crown of their season. Just like the Cal players used to get jacked in JT first years to go and play Washington, or Arizona State, or even SC or UCLA. And when the crowd is not in it, and you are the home team, it seems like there is no life in the place, and you are a little disappointed.

That being said, the SEC teams load up on these type of games each year, only to run up the score. And they do it to "embrace their expectations." Since that is the Bears motto this year, we need to do the same, and keep the march up the rankings, by winning by 30 or so.

As far as it goes, it seems like this could be an interesting year for the BCS. Lots of folks are talking about Cal as a serious contendor for the National Championship, and I think that is legitimate. But think about it - Cal could be undefeated. I think there are a number of other teams who could be undefeated as well in the SEC and the Big 12. THis could be the year with more than two or even three undefeated teams. Boise, Utah or BYU, etc can be thrown into the mix. Even Notre Dame. I think that this is the year when there will be a bunch of people crying out for a playoff. WHich I think sucks for all of the reasons why some of the more sane college football people think playoffs suck.

As it is, though, this could shape up to be an interesting season for the Bears. Kevin Riley is getting pub on Sports Illustrated for making a comeback. Best is everywhere. The Bears are really national names, with lots of national figures listing them in the top 6 or 7 teams of the country. If the Bears go through USC undefeated, then there will be a huge amount of craziness over this year. We will probably be, by that time, a top three team.

That being said - it is possible that UCLA could come into that game in LA also undefeated. I doubt it - they have to play Tennessee tomorrow, and I have them picked to lose big, a la Cal 2006. But supposing miracles do happen. Can you imagine the hype for that game? i surely would have to fly down for that one. UCLA has to get through Oregon and Tennessee, both of which are kinda like wounded giants. But they could hit at the right time and come into that game on a roll. Stranger things have happened for the baby bears.

I know, I know - stop worrying about the future, and focus on this game. But Eastern Washington? Really?

GO BEARS!!

Further thoughts

2009-09-07T23:21:00.001-07:00

After considering a bit more, here are some of the conclusions that I have drawn from the last 9 months or so of Cal football

1) Not a lot of offseason wailing and gnashing of teeth - meaning that the Bears are getting a bit of the old enmity out of the way. Nate left, and while I was a Nate supporter in some ways, I think that it was definitely time to go. Kinda like Van Jones - if all you are going to do is cause trouble just by being who you are, then maybe it is not a good place to be. The issues of 2007 are getting more distant and the good vibes of a 9-4 season in a rebuilding year seem to have taken off for the Bears.

2) The SAHPC is going to do what it is supposed to do - make it really a cool place to play football, so that 18 year old kids can tell their buddies how cool it is. I remember back to my high-schoold days, and some of the kids were being recruited to major programs. I always remember this guy - let's call him Dan - who always had an opinion of the school based on the quality of the facilities. He was advising guys to go to USF because of the cool new sports facility there. I mean - really. USF was pretty good in those days (in Hoops - actually that was the year they dropped the program because of the disrepute that their recruiting was doing to their school). The sad thing was that some of those guys did go to USF because this idiot kid of 17 was telling them how cool the new USF gym was. As, for example, opposed to going to Cal or UCLA, or even USC back then. When the USF thing blew up, this kid had to transfer to Washington. He was a great guy, but led astray be 17 year old idiots who have not idea about anything, but will attend a school because of the facilities for the sports. I guess they are going to be there quite a bit, so they better like it. But I digress. Cal's recruiting, I would say at this point, is the best ever. And I think that incremental recruiting surge has to do with the SAHPC more than anything else. I mean, we have had 8, 9 10 wins seasons for a long time. But have not had recruiting like this. Cal is set up for a while.

3) Jeff Tedford seems to be more comfortable with his offensive coordinator than ever before. It seems like he has a guy who he shares a good deal of confidence in and is almost like from the same family. He is a balance guy, but also likes to mix it up. Maybe it is because of confidence in his players, or maybe because it is that he trust this guy to get the plan in place, that he can spend more time doing the things that he needs to do. Like work with Riley one on one a bit more. Like overseeing the whole squad. When Cortez left (or was pushed out - I never really understood that one - Cortez is back with the CFL Calgary Stampeders) and Tedford brought Dunbar in, I thought that it was a mistake. And so did they after that first year. Although Cal won the Pac 10 title that year with SC, it seemed like it was not really a Tedford offense. And then, the revolving door of Tedford calling the plays, and being too involved with the QB issues to understand what was going on with the team, and then bringing in Cignetti, who really wanted to be the guy, but everyone knows this is Jeff's town. Ludwig is the perfect kind of guy for Tedford. My understanding is that he is a detail guy, a tape room workhorse, and a guy who schemes - just like JT. And it may be that he has aspirations on being a head coach. But at the heart of it, it seems like he is kind of a perpetual assistant - like Norm Chow. A great coordinator, but not someone who is going to run a program. Maybe I am wrong about that, but that is the feeling that I get. That being said, JT is comfortable with that. It's like having two kids. Do you give the keys to the one who wants to make a name for himself, or do you give the keys to the car for the one who is interested in getting there safely and in one piece. I think the deal is this - JT got rid of Cortez, because he did not need his father figure any more. Cortez was JT coach in Calgary, and while he was a good offensive coordinator, Tedford wanted to try something new. Spread his wings. Now that he tried out a bunch of guys - he is ready to be comfortable with Ludwig. Hopefully we can get to a point where we have assistant coaches who are comfortable working at Cal for a long time. We need a shot of something every once in a while (Lupoi, Daft, etc) but we also want some stability (Tedford, Gregory - who I have always thought excellent). If we can get Ludwig to stick around, develop a good relationship for 10 to 15 years and make a decent wage, then I am all for it. Kinda like Nebraska under Tom Osborne.

4) The team is confident. Everyone knows that Jahvid Best is huge, but he is such a team guy (it appears, and it appears genuine) that everyone else has to keep in line, or else know they are going to look line an ass. Last year, it was tense with Nate and Kevin. the underclassman starting over the Senior, who gave his all. Now, with Jahvid the undisputed hottest thing, no QB controversy, who is really going to be bitching? Is Nyan Boeteng going to have something to say about playing time, when Jahvid slits time with Shane Vareen for huge deductions in his yardage totals? The Bears are very lucky to have a class act like Best on the team. It seems like a much more professional team, and a much more mature team this year. Also, a damn good team. I was a huge 49er fan growing up in SF, and the teams of the 80's were just fantastic. The 49ers were confident. In 1984, when they went 17-1 - they were down in many games in the first half. But you knew that it would be all right in the end. I never freaked out like I did when watching Cal sports - when you knew a 30 point lead was vaporware. But this Bears team is like those 9er teams of the 80s. It is all going to be fine.

GO BEARS!!

Bears look fine

2009-09-06T23:50:00.000-07:00

Two things to take away from the game:

1) The Bears look fine. All of the items that were going to be possible issues seem to be resolved. The offensive line looked pretty solid after a shaky start. Kevin Riley looked pretty solid after a shaky start. The receivers look great, and Jahvid Best - what can you say. And defense was great as well.

2) The Bears look shaky. There are four areas on the team that an injury could hurt us. We lost one of those four last night, as Spencer Ladner (tight end) went down. I don't know the full extent, but with the fullback and the tight end depth issue, that could be a problem. We now have three tight ends for the season. Not enough. (For those not paying attention, the other two issues were Kevin Riley and Jahvid Best staying healthy, and having our fullbacks play well).

Speaking of fullbacks, it was nice to see Holley step up. He played a great game. At one point, I screamed to a friend - it looks like the niners from the 80's - dump off to Roger Craig. That is exactly what the Tedford game should be about. Five guys ready to take the ball on every play. Kevin having the presence of mind to see it. Look at Aaron Rogers - he is the example in the NFL today, and Riley a few times later in the game, as he got more comfortable, looked the part (and no, I was not really comparing him to Joe Montana - yet).

Let's face it - it was a great game. I can't decide whether to buy my ticket to LA for January 1 or 7. But, that being said, there were a few things that the Bears have to work on.

1) Making sure that they can defend the middle screen. Man, that tight end slipping over really chaps my hide when he is getting 10 yards on a crappy middle screen. Figure that one out, already.

2) Riley need to settle down before the second quarter. i know that it is hard when after the first quarter he only played 3 minutes. Maybe we should ask Best to slow it down a bit so the offense can get some more work. But he settled in, and by the end of the game he seemed to really have it together.

3) When you bring in a guy liike Mansion to play the ENTIRE 4th quarter - give him a shot to throw the ball more than once. We have Eastern Washington - which - going against all woofing gods around - I think the Bears take. And Big. But play your second string guy a bit more that one quarter. We have two tough games at Oregon and USC coming up soon after. Get over your conservative nature and let the guy throw a pick if that is what we need to get him some time in the saddle. We were up by a lot of points.

All in all, a good day and a good way to start the season. And, Jahvid Best. Wow.

GO BEARS!!

And we're off...

2009-09-05T00:55:00.001-07:00

Apparently, last night two great teams were supposed to play as the kickoff of the season. But both Oregon and Boise looked like crap. Boise now has a straight shot to an undefeated season. Here's hoping Fresno State and / or San Jose State can do something about that. Oregon, as I suspected, looked like terrible. They have no offensive line. Garrett Blount (AKA Slugger) was stopped in his backfield 8 TIMES. Boise's defense was having a tea party back there. That was a terrible performance by the line of Oregon.

And why is that? Losing three of their top players on the offensive line seems to have hurt them. And, though Oregon kept thier offensive line coach from the Bellotti Era, many of the old coaches have been replaced in the Chip Kelly Era. There is probably quite a bit of disconnect on the Oregon team at this point.

You could compare that to the Bears, who lost a quality offensive line coach, as well as probably the best lineman in the country last year. The difference is in the Head Coach, who is experienced at this point, as opposed to Chip Kelly, who is riding in his first Rodeo. This could be a nightmare for the Ducks. I envision a five - seven win season, and an opportunity for the Bears to take another from the Ducks in Eugene. And maybe some calls for Bellotti to come back and coach.

As far as it goes, last nights game from a Cal players perspective is that you are now sitting in a room, thinking about the game, but you can hardly be expected to not be excited about having your top two major competitors in the conference looking a bit shabby, while you are having what is probably the best looking team in five years. And maybe that is why Slugger Blount went off on the Boise player. He was having those thoughts as well, and it all ended badly for him.

At this point, before the first game of the season for the Bears, but watching Oregon, and projecting based on pure speculation and instinct, I think the toughest game that we are going to face this year will be Oregon State. They are the working class team of the conference, always getting more from their players than anyone else. I would say that the pressure is a bit off the Bears at this point. They have a pretty good schedule now, considering that the Oregon trip looks a bit less daunting than before. UCLA, ASU and Oregon on the road is a pretty good trade for Oregon State and SC at home.

GO BEARS!!

Starter Updates

2009-08-31T15:25:00.000-07:00

So it seems that the starting lineup has for the most part been finalized, with very few surprises. Kevin Riley will be the starting QB, with, I think, quite a lot of rope. Mansion will not be playing this year, barring injury or a big lead in the second half of a game. It is clear that this year, Riley is going to be given the full opportunity to take the Bears to the promised land.

Vareen Tucker and Marvin Jones will be playing wide outs. Boateng did not get the nod, but I would imagine he will be the first guy in. There will probably be 6 or 7 receivers in the rotation, including Sofele. I also imagine using Best / Sofele and Vareen in a hybrid type position quite a bit. This could be a fun season for those guys.

As for the linebackers, the only possibly surprising items is that Devin Bishop is not starting as the senior. But he will play a bit, I am sure. I like the fact that we have three of four LBs coming back next year, with only Eddie Young graduating as a starter, and Bishop as a backup.

The defensive line is back with Cam Jordan as a starter - big surprise there - but it is nice to know that Gregory though Owusu good enough to start. I am pretty excited about the defensive line for the next few years.

In fact, the Bears are only starting five seniors on defense and 2 on offense. I assume that Best will go after this year, but maybe not. The biggest area of rebuilding next year will be our defensive backfield, which will be hit with Syd'Quan Thompson leaving, along with the two safeties.

On the two deep chart, the Bears have 6 seniors on offense, and 7 on defense. So, 13 of 44, or 30%. There are 15 juniors, 12 Sophomores, and three redshirt Freshmen. That being said, it seems like there is plenty of talent and balance in these classes for years to come, and that underclassmen are getting to play if they deserve it.

Best is going to take kickoffs returns, and Thompson is going to take punt returns. It sounds like Ise Sofele may be taking the gunner position on kickoffs, which should be fun.

The good news is that most of these moves / changes that have come have been because there have been better options, not a lack of quality. Mansion has played well, but Riley has done better. Matt Summers-Gavin is playing because he is a monster - not because Boskovitch is no good.

One of the major weaknesses from last year that is not clearly settled yet, I think, is the kicker position. Giorgio Tevecchio is listed as starting, and apparently he has improved somewhat in kickoff performance, but none of our kickers are consistently kicking it to the 5 yard line or better. I do have confidence in him for field goals, as he was 13 of 16 last year, and only missed one beyond 40 yards. But kickoff matter - we gave away too much field position last year. Here's hoping that a year in the conditioning program improved his leg strength. We also have two other placekickers, so there is plenty of competition.

All in all, it seems like a team that is good to go. Here is hoping for an injury free season.

GO BEARS!!

Bear Injuries

2009-08-27T13:22:00.000-07:00

The key to Cal's success this year will be the ability of Kevin Riley and Jahvid Best to stay relatively healthy throughout the year. Both players have had some history with injuries that have limited their success over the past seasons. Last year, Riley had a concussion and shoulder issue which caused Nate to start and play in some games. Jahvid has been somewhat plauged with injuries, including hip, foot, and elbow.

This year, Jahvid has bulked up a bit, and is now apparently healthy after being out of fall camp for a few weeks with a bone bruise on the ball of his foot. There was a concern that it was turf toe, which can linger and cause pain through the season. But it seems that he is healthy at this point. Riley seems to have been fine throughout camp.

Both of those players need to play at a high level the entire year for the Bears to make this a very special season. I could see them going undefeated this year if we get lucky on the injury thing. That being said, we do have good depth at almost every position. Depth that would make this a good season, even with some injuries. Brock Mansion I am sure would be a serviceable backup to Kevin, should he need to be replaced. But he would not take us to an undefeated season. Similarly with Shane Vareen - while he is a fantastic back, he is not going to be the best back in College Football, like Jahvid Best. So there would be some drop-off.

That being said, over time, Cal seems to have had injury issues with the offensive line, the defensive line and with defensive backs. I am pretty comfortable that there is adequate depth at those positions where a loss of two or three players would not destroy us. We also have 7 or 8 receivers who seem to be in the mix for playing time, so that should not be a significant problem. Tight End, where we lost our starter for the year, and fullback could be problematic, and are key positions for the Bears in our running game. We have three guys who are in the rotation for both positions. If one or two go down, we could be in trouble.

So over the year, I would focus on those key injury areas: Fullback, Tight End, and Riley and Best. If we can get though the season with those positions healthy, we should be in for a treat.

GO BEARS!!

How will the Bears do?

2009-08-25T23:38:00.002-07:00

Based on our unscientific pooling data, most Cal fans think the Bears will come in first of second in the conference, and see the Rose Bowl on Jan 1 instead of Jan 7.

So what do the boys in Vegas think? I was just there for the past 4 days (only lost a little...) and the line varied from 25 to 1 to 35 to 1 that the Bears would win it all. If you want the best odds, go to the Venetian, at 35 to 1 (meaning $100 pays $3500). Cesars and Harrah's think the Bears will do better, at 30 to 1, and The MGM / Mirage (Bellagio, Luxor, Mandalay Bay, etc) folks think the Bears will do a bit better than that, at $25 to 1.

There was not a line on how many games the Bears would win, although almost every other team had one that was ranked. SC was picked to win the Pac 10, with 10 wins as the over / under. I think that is a pretty good call this year for SC.

My prediction of the Pac 10 this year looks like this:

Cal (Homer - what can I say) 11-1 - lose at Oregon. New Years in Pasadena!
USC - 10-2 - Lose at Cal and Oregon
Oregon -9-3 - Lose at Boise State, at Arizona and at UCLA. Ties SC for second, but SC goes to Holiday Bowl.
Oregon State 8-4 - Lose at Oregon, Cal, USC and UNLV, or some other inexplicable early season debacle
Arizona - 7-5 - Keeps Stoops another year - guarantees the Bears will make the Rose Bowl before they do.
Stanfurd - 7-5 - Propels Hairball to the NFL. The future value of Tight Ends increases dramatically.
UCLA - 6-6 - This is the dramatic turn-around people were hoping for. The LA times endorses Neuweasle for Governor.
Arizona State - 4-8 - A sorry end for the worst 49er coach in 30 years.
Washington State - 2-9 Who knows
Washington - 1-11 - Couldn't happen to nicer guys.

UCLA does not make a bowl game since there were eligible teams ahead of them.

I have to say - I am really sickened by the prospect of Notre Dame this year. They play NO ONE of consequence, except USC. They will probably go 11 - 1. But they play 4 Pac 10 teams. Besides the above mentioned USC, they play Washington and Washington State (UGG) as well as Stanfurd. I think this is a year that Stanfurd gives them trouble. But Stanfurd is probably the second most difficult team that they face this year. Maybe Michigan State. But Michigan is way down, as is Boston College. Maybe this is the year when Navy rises up to kick the snot out of them. I bring this up because, of course, they have a special Notre Dame rule, which means if they have a sniffing chance of being in the BCS they will get in. So, an 11 - 1 Cal, not the Pac 10 champ - could lose out to an 11 - 1 Notre Dame who played the worst schedule of any of the top 25 teams.

The Bears have a tough road to hoe, but clearly the two games that stand out are the SC game at home, and the Oregon game on the road. Then, Oregon State at home.

Over the past few years, SC and Oregon State are the only teams to beat us at Memorial. It is time to stop that nonsense.

Go BEARS!!

Rule Changes

2009-08-19T19:59:00.000-07:00

Here are some interesting Rule Changes for NCAA football this season:

1) Flagrant Personal Fouls (Rule 9-6): For 2009-10: The rules committee has added a new section that calls for conferences in the days following a game to review certain particularly dangerous plays. This new rule says that if a player is ejected for any flagrant personal foul the conference must review the game video for possible further action. In addition, if the officials call fouls for targeting defenseless players or using the crown of the helmet and the player is not ejected, the rules mandate a conference review. Furthermore, if the review by the conference reveals actions that should have resulted in a personal foul but were not called, the conference may impose sanctions.

2) Chin Strap Included in Face-Mask Fouls (Rule 9-1-2-q): The helmet chin strap is included in the face-mask foul. It is a personal foul if a player twists, turns or pulls the face mask, any helmet opening, or now the chin strap of an opponent.

3. Rugby-Style Kicker (Rule 9-1-4-a-5): Apparently a rugby-style kick has created a competitive disadvantage favoring the punting team. Because the player runs for several yards before kicking the ball, his teammates have more time to move downfield for coverage. It has been a subject of inconsistant officiating regarding whether such a rugby-style kicker has the same protection afforded a "normal" punter. Under the new rules, if a potential kicker carries the ball outside the tackle box (defined as extending five yards on each side of the snapper) before kicking the ball, there will be no foul for running-into or roughing if he is blocked or tackled by an opponent. The kicker remains protected, as always, from unnecessary roughness fouls.

4. Jersey Colors (Rule 1-4-3-a): The rules for many years have required white jerseys to be worn by one team, which must be the visiting team unless the opponent agrees otherwise prior to the start of the season. The new rule creates a process whereby both teams may wear colored jerseys if the visitors have received written permission from the home team, and if the home team's conference agrees that the jerseys are of contrasting colors. If the visitors wear colored jerseys without having such agreements, they will receive a 15-yard penalty following the opening kickoff of each half. UCLA and USC brought this rule to the attention of the committee when they swapped 15 yard penalties last year so they could both wear their home jerseys in the Rose Bowl. This rule was put in play back in the days of Black and White TV - so you could tell the difference between the two teams. It clearly is not needed anymore.

5) Extension of Periods (Rule 3-2-3): If a foul takes place on a play during which time expires in a quarter, the period is normally extended if the penalty is accepted. Starting in 2009, the period is not extended if the penalty includes loss of down. Makes sense.

6) Offensive Scrimmage Formation (Rules 1-1-1-b-2 and 7-1-3-b): The requirement for having at least seven offensive players on the line of scrimmage has been re-stated to allow no more than four players in the backfield. This is not a rule change but merely a different way of writing the same requirement. It does eliminate the foul for a team having ten players when there are only six on the line of scrimmage. This eliminates the illegal procedure penalty for teams that only have ten players on the field when a lineman forgets to go out, and the offense gets another shot with only a five yard penalty.

GO BEARS!!

Breaking News

2009-08-19T19:57:00.000-07:00

Michael Jackson to be buried Aug. 29 at Glendale Forest Lawn Memorial Park in California...

Just in case you didn't see it anywhere else.

Leon Powe

2009-08-12T22:35:00.000-07:00

Good news for Leon Powe - he signed a deal with Cleveland for one year with another on an option. So he is going to play for the league minimum for him - $855K for the first year, and if he gets picked up, $915K. If Cleveland can get him for two years, that is a steal. But essentially, they are just paying him to keep him off the payroll of anyone else, and hope that he can help in the playoffs. Leon's knee is not expected to get better for another 6 months or so.

So essentially, they are paying for a second year player now, and hoping that he gets better.

Here is to Leon getting through this and getting his body back together. If he can get healthy, he is going to have a great career, and his payday will be huge in two years.

As far as it goes, the Cavs have a great team for Leon to come into. They have LeBron, of course, but they also just picked up Shaq, who is on the downside of his career, but I could imagine being someone to help a young guy like Leon in the league. It is good to get to know Shaq, is my guess. And, after next year, when Shaq and LeBron leave, he will have the option to look elsewhere for the big contract, if Cleveland starts to collapse.

Leon played with LeBron in Oakland's AAU league, with the Oakland Soldiers, I believe after his sophomore year in High School. I think at that time they were the one and two players nationally, and they both talked about going to Cal. But Leon hurt his knee, and Le Bron went on to the pro's early. So he will be re-uniting with Le Bron at Cleveland - which is kinda cool that they both made it to that level. Actually, it seems like both of those guys are pretty level headed and decent people who have worked hard, and deserve the success they are having. Good for them.

GO BEARS!!

Post from the President

2009-08-12T17:27:00.000-07:00

Here is a message from UC President Marc Yudof, which I agree with whole-heartedly. While he is talking about the entirety of the University, this is clearly a big issue at Cal, as I personally can attest to from some of my professor friends.

BRAIN DRAIN THREATENS CALIFORNIA

"

Societies produce relatively few individuals who can both disseminate knowledge and discover new knowledge. Yet, such people are crucial to the economic, cultural and technological progress of the modern world.

In California, UC has, over the years, been a magnet for the world's brightest, most innovative minds. Our faculty and staff make extraordinary contributions every day in many, many path-breaking fields. However, we are beginning to see indications of a trend that worries me: UC, long a draw for global talent, appears in some instances to be experiencing "brain drain."

At our July Regents' meeting, we heard from several chancellors that world-class faculty and graduate students are abandoning promising careers at the University of California to pursue opportunities elsewhere. It's not just a matter of money, although there is of course a premium to recruit such individuals because, in good times and in bad, there is always demand for their services across the country and around the world. Nor is it a matter of furloughs, though this can hardly be considered a recruiting tool. The issue is much broader, and goes to the heart of what makes a great research institution.

One thing that attracts leading researchers is a critical mass of other top thinkers in their field or related fields. We are in danger of losing that mass, beginning a downward spiral - not because of the short-term crisis in which we now find ourselves, but rather because of the long-term disinvestment in human capital by the state of California. Since 1990, per-student state funding for undergraduates has plunged by 40 percent. Factoring in next year's budget cuts, our faculty salaries lag some 19 percent below the national rate. These realities register loud and clear on the human capital markets.

Faculty hiring has slowed dramatically. At UC Berkeley, the Regents heard, there are fewer than 10 searches this year, in lieu of the normal 100. At UCLA, only 25 faculty searches are authorized, down from the normal level of 75 to 100. At UC Santa Cruz, 55 faculty positions have been eliminated, the number of lecturers and teaching assistants has been dramatically reduced, and nearly all faculty recruitments have been deferred. UC San Diego does not plan to recruit faculty for the 2009-2010 academic year.

Much of the research and teaching is dependent on graduate students. If the universities are not healthy and graduate education suffers, then the research enterprise is at risk.

Because of these trends, UC Santa Cruz Chancellor George Blumenthal asked the Regents, "How many innovations, how many vaccines and human health breakthroughs, how many ways to protect our planet from climate change, will be delayed or undiscovered?" I wonder too.

A world-class research institution such as ours must make tough choices: No one wants to sacrifice access, affordability or quality. To develop solutions, Board of Regents Chairman Russell Gould and I have appointed a Commission on the Future of UC. This commission will develop a vision for the university that will reaffirm our role in sustaining California's economy and cultural life while recognizing that limited resources require us to be creative and strategic in fulfilling that mission.

We have made it through the toughest budget cycle in memory. Let us now turn our attention to assuring the long-term health of our great university.

Contact me at president@ucop.edu.

Although I will read all your e-mails, I am not able to personally respond to every one. I encourage you to follow me on Facebook and Twitter, where you can share your ideas and look for answers to many of your questions."

As President Yudof notes, the University already pays about 20% below average for professorial talent. That is why you get these strikes from the grad students, who are being used as indentured servants. With another 25% cut in university funding, the cost is going to be devastating.

Let's not get it twisted: while California has a large and quality economy, it is driven by talent. The movie industry, the technology industry, the defense industry and the medical industry are all driven by smart people coming out of the best colleges in the country. And not, those colleges are...somewhere else. So if the state wants to continue to invest in the future, then something needs to be done to protect the educational future of the state.

If that is privatizing the University, or fully funding the university, or endowing it, whatever way you go, there is a lot to be done. But by squeezing it through incompetence by the legislature is not the way to run a railroad - or a University.

GO BEARS!!

Whiney Fans Annoy Me

2009-08-12T16:56:00.000-07:00

I think the difference between whiney fans and other fans are that the whiney ones, you can see as kids they were the kind of kids that screamed in the ice cream aisle as Safeway when they did not get their way. Those are the kind of fans who make these great sweeping statements about a program (SEC fans, for example) and base it on one or two examples. The SEC IS GREAT BECAUSE GEORGIA BEAT ARIZONA STATE ON THE ROAD LAST YEAR!!! Never mind that Georgia was supposed to win the national championship and Arizona State was a second tier Pac 10 team last year.

It is those SEC fans who do not understand the Pac 10, and reason why there is an East Coast bias. It is because in any given year, one team is great, and then two or three years later, that team is not so good in the Pac 10. There are only a few programs that are consistently good in the Pac 10. And it is cyclical over time as well. Washington State in the 90's and early this century was great. Now, not so much. In three years, who knows. Same with Washington. Oregon State is a good case in point. In fact, the only team that really has never been much of a factor at the top of the conference is Arizona, and they never schedule BCS conferences during their out of conference schedule. But even they have been a bowl team on occasion, and they have been good enough to take Cal or Oregon or Oregon State out of pretty good seasons. In other words, there are no truly horrible teams over time. Not even the Bears - we had a decent set of years in the 60's, 70's, 80's and 90's. But it was not until this decade where we finally seemed to be elevated to the top tier of the conference for a decent duration. So as you look at these things, and you see that USC seems to be dominating, and no consistent threat seems to be coming up (except, I would say Cal and Oregon, and Cal is better), then as an east coast guy, you think - man, they must all suck. Never mind that your conference has the best record against all other conferences over the course of the decade, or that you won all of your bowl games. But it is those kind of whiney little SEC fans that I am comparing Cal fans to.

Cal fans in general have to be the biggest bunch of whiners in the history of college football. I mean, really (by the way, I welcome comments to prove my point). I was on linked-in, the business networking site, and I was checking out the Cal alumni group. There was some discussion on the Bears, which was started by saying, we are ranked #10 (where he got that, I do not know) but that undoubtedly we were doomed for another disappointing season. After a bunch of folks sent in tidbits to say, "dude, what's up with all your negativity, Cal is at the best place it has been for a while, he responds:

"This discussion has turned into a comparison of coaching eras. There is no comparison since Tedford is by far the best that we've had in modern ball.

However, if you can't admit that Tedford's teams have broken your heart, you're not a fan. We have been so close to greatness and choke every time. 2004 was the best chance and blew it against USC and then choked in the bowl game when we were snubbed. We had virtual Heisman candidates at the QB (Rodgers) and RB(Arrington) positions an excellent receiving corp (McArthur and McKonnen), nasty front-lines on both sides of the ball and quite a stout defense.

The talent hasn't been SC caliber, but there is no denying that a number of the teams we have put on the field in the past 5 years should have worked their way to a BCS bowl.

Tedford is not a big game coach. I love the guy, but he can't be one of the best until he wins the big games and I'm not talking about beating Stanford and UCLA."

I was going to reply on Linked-In, but it seems like that may be a bit of professional suicide. The type of language that I was going to use was not appropriate for a professional forum - so I thought: Blog.

Here was what I wrote before better I thought better:

"Tedford has won big games. He has also lost some. He beat USC in 2003 in a pretty big game. He beat Michigan State at Michigan State (Ranked 12) in 2002 in a pretty big game at the time. He is 6-1 in Bowl games, which generally are pretty big games. He beat Oregon at Oregon two years ago to become ranked #2 in the country, in what was a pretty big game. If you mean he hasn't beaten USC except for once, and lost on the road at Tennessee, then I guess you are right. But to say that he can not win a big game is just wrong. Losing in 2004 on the last play to the #1 team in the country on the road is not choking. We may have had two possible candidates for the Heisman, but they did have the actual Heisman winner on their team.

It turns out having a QB who is capable and uninjured is probably pretty important. Cal has been the second best team in the Pac 10 since Tedford has been there. Based on recruiting geography, we are never going to overtake USC as a program, unless they get dinged by the NCAA. But we will beat them every once in a while, and we will win the Pac 10 in those years.

We are making big strides in recruiting this year, with out best year ever. With the SAHPC, an upgraded stadium and overall improved performance, we will continue to be a force in the Pac 10 and Nationally."

But here is what I really wanted to write:

Look, loser-boy - if you are tired of your LA SC Neighbors bagging on you and you can't formulate an argument to get those losers off your back - that is your problem. But stop whining to the world about something you clearly have no sense talking about.

I see it a lot in the LA fans - those who only get to see the Bears lose in So Cal. Stop whining and get on a plane. It is $100 roundtrip. If you can't afford the juice, shut up.

Anyway, I guess I am really just pissed because I expect that whiny stuff in the sports pages, but when I am on a networking site, and hit with this idiocy, then it really grinds my chops.

GO BEARS!!

I'm Back!!

2009-08-10T20:16:00.000-07:00

Hi Bear fans

After a 6 month hiatus fighting the good fight against my business going down, I am back. I have a bit more time to spend on Oskitalk, so I am going to try to post a few times per week. Also, it was getting pretty boring at the end of football season. While the hoops team did well (and Dick Vitale has us ranked 14th in his Hoops Preseason shenanigans) it seems like life is back on track with football around the corner. I have my tickets, parking pass and new Cal shirt on. Let the season begin.

First, a few thoughts on what has been going on in the off-season. Nothing except the best recruiting class that the Bears have ever had at this stage of the game. We are in the run for some additional quality players, but if we get who we have been told we are getting, as well as half of who we think we may, we are in top shape for seasons to come.

Also, it has been a quiet off season in general. Why? Because there was not that much to whine about, and Bear fans, as you all know, are probably the biggest whiners out there (or, as we like to say, the most committed fans). So when there is nothing to whine about, it is pretty quiet. No Nate Longshore to kick around any more - we ended up with a bowl win and a decent season, even with the QB controversy. In fact, i would say that most thinking fans of the Bears predicted (as I did) a year or two ago that this would be the season of destiny. Actually, I think I said that we would be moving to a new elevation. By that I mean 10 win seasons on a regular basis - when 9 wins is a rebuilding year. I definitely thought last year was a rebuilding year, with a new line, new receivers, new QB situation, new defensive strategy, etc. So to grab 9 wins from that is good.

I think it is pretty clear that Cal is the number 2 program in the west - meaning west of Texas. We are getting recruits from all over, and we at a much higher level than most other programs from that perspective. We are building the High Performance Center - all that crap has washed away now, and you can actually see the progress. The ticket buying scheme has been working - the revenue is still strong for the athletic department.

In fact, the biggest obstacle to the Bears continued growth as a top notch place to play football is the state legislature, who by pure idiocy is endangering California's future by it's slash and burn approach to government.

That being said, it is a great time to be a Golden Bear. For those of you youngsters who don't know or don't remember, being a Cal fan for many years was a tough as nails proposition. The University hated sports, and tried to kill it in many ways. Many times, the Bears tried to rise, only to be smacked down by lunkheaded administrators, who had no idea what a flourishing athletic program can do for a community, a University and a region. It drives fundraising revenue, and helps the academic side of the house significantly.

So when 800 million is cut from the schools budget, how are you going to get that back? The University needs a much bigger endowment, and athletics and the institutional attachment that comes with athletics can help with that.

But back to my premise - that the Bears are the number 2 team in the west now. I have thought that for a while, but I believe that to be the case. So that would include schools in the following states: CA, Oregon, Washington, Arizona, Hawaii, Idaho, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Nevada.

Anyone following recruiting knows that we have been successful in attracting top caliber players from all of those states, as well as Texas, and others, over the last few years, and particularly the last three years. As the SAHPC come together, as the wins continue to add up, the Bears have been consistently the team that has given USC it's toughest challenge over the last 7 years.

Now, we have only won one of those. But that will change. And the players know, Cal is the team that can do it, and will do it, eventually.

UCLA has a tough spot. They are cross town rivals, but never seem to be able to get it going. And the best do not see UCLA as a big player - they have been bad for so long that the young players do not remember when it was good. They could come back, but I do not see Neuheisel as the guy to do it.

The Washington Schools are getting out recruited by Boise State. The Arizona Schools just can not take players from California anymore, and they do not have enough talent at home. Similarly, Utah. BYU could actually give the Bears a run for the money, because, similarly to Notre Dame, they have a built in advantage. But the Bears get their share of Mormon kids, and they like Berkeley.

While Oregon has Nike supporting it, they do not have enough recruits there to make it a long term leader in the Pac 10. The Bears have beaten them 3 of the last 4 meetings, and 5 of 7.

While the Beavers have been doing well, they do not have the wherewithal to contend over time for the Pac 10 title. They have had some remarkable seasons, and will do well over time as long as their coach stays. But their talent pool is smaller than the Bears, who do not have a real natural rival in the local area that can compete with us for talent. Stanfurd has decided that it is not in the major football business by building a tiny tot stadium and by hiring Jim Hairball, who will bolt at the first NFL opening.

I like the position that the Bears have gotten to. It is similar to the position they were in during the early part of last century. A quality institution with great staying power, who can compete with the best for the best recruits. That does not mean that every year will be a winning year, but it does mean that the down years will be few and far between, and not as down as they have been in the recent past.

GO BEARS!!

Bears sneak into the Polls

2009-01-12T11:24:00.000-08:00

The Bears have snuck into the Polls this morning, garnering a 22 in the AP and a 23 in the coaches poll. They were about 27 in the AP last week, and about 39 in the coaches ranking based on other's receiving votes. Good thing the coaches just try and copy the AP each week.

Before this week, they were the highest rated team in the RPI not to be ranked (RPI rank 10). They are now one of five teams with 15 victories. According to the RP!, they have played the 37th toughest schedule, and have some impressive road wins.

Of course, a lot has already been written about the incredible win on Saturday night at Washington. This was a game for the ages. There have been some incredible games in the past - some say the five overtime games against Oregon in 1977 was the best one ever. However, I think that this game could be elevated over time as a turning point for the Bears, and I mean the whole program.

In 1986, we had a new coach (Lou C), a great player (Kevin Johnson), and a vow from the coach that we would beat UCLA. He had not known that we had not beaten them in something like 52 straight tries, spanning 27 years.

For those of you who were students then, you remember bursting into the game (the ticket takers didn't even try to punch your AP card) and screaming your lungs out as the Bears dropped a fairly mediocre UCLA team. It was that burden that was lifted from the program, that got the Bears moving forward in the late 80's and 90's - under Campinelli, Bozeman and finally Braun - where we finally plateaued after 7 or 8 years. But we were rarely the joke we were in the 60's and 70's and early 80's again. We had started the rise - we built a great court, we played in the tournament on occasion, most of the time we were competing for a tournament slot. In 1990 we were in the NCAA tournament for the first time in 30 years, and were back nine times in the next 18 years.

But this game, I think, will be the turning point, where the Bears are viewed as a true contender. This is a game where, if you can win on the road in a triple overtime while playing poorly against a very good Washington team, and come out with a win, then you start to believe that you can win it all. When you out-rebound a team that leads the nation in rebound ratio, you start to believe that you can win it all. When you can't shoot your three point shot, as the leading three point shooting team in the country, and you still win, you start to believe.

Mike Montgomery came to Cal, and so far has proven that he can coach, and the Bears have proven that they can win. And it seems we are finally at the next level.

So what does that mean for the future? Who knows. But it clearly does mean that there is no point where you can count these Bears out. There is some magic in this team.

Jerry Palm's College RPI site does a projected RPI, and he has us going 28-3 with a final RPI of 14 - which works out to a 4 seed. While the Pac 10 conference RPI this year is a little low (Oregon State is dragging us down) we are 4th overall, ahead of the SEC, Mountain West and Big 12, but behind the Big 10, Big East and ACC.

If the Bears can go to maples this weekend and deal with Stanfurd, look out. This is going to be a tough game - the Cardinal are backed up, with three losses already in the Pac 10 - two this weekend by one point each (although the first, by Arizona State was by 30 points!)

This is the Montgomery homecoming game. I imagine he wants to do well. I also imagine the Trent Johnson's replacement wants to do well. Remember, Stanfurd has a new head coach (or as they call it, the Anne and Tony Joseph Director of Men's Basketball - nice when you can sell EVERYTHING). He is Johnny Dawkins, the assistant from Duke. They started out well, but have lost three of the last four. You can already hear the calls for the Ax swishing away - if Monty can clobber them. T Johnson is doing OK at LSU - 13-3, but lost his last two to Utah (Cal beat) and Alabama.

GO BEARS!!

Rankings, Rankings, Rankings

2009-01-10T12:58:00.000-08:00

Final Football Rankings are in - the Bears are 26 in the AP pool, and 25 in the final Coaches poll. That is up about four slots in each. Frankly, less than what I expected, but I am a homer.

Here is what my final football ranking would look like:

1. USC
2. Florida
3. Utah
4. Texas
5. Penn State
6. Oklahoma
7. Oregon
8. Oregon State
9. Texas Tech
10. Mississippi
11. Ohio State
12. TCU
13. Alabama
14. California
15. Virginia Tech
16. Georgia Tech
17. Georgia
18. Florida State
19. Boise State
20. Arizona
21. Michigan State
22. Cincinnati
23. West Virginia
24. Oklahoma State
25. Missouri

This was my vote in the CollegeBCS.com vote. Am I a Pac 10 homer? Perhaps. But here is my thinking:

First, the top five. I think USC looked better in the Rose Bowl than any other team. They played a very good Penn State team, and had thier way with them. Penn State, I think, could have beaten Texas or Oklahoma.

In the bowls, I think once again the Big 12 was exposed. They played no one all season, and then they play competition with defense and they get crushed. Texas won, so they got the highest ranking, But if they had played Florida, they may have lost as well. As far as it goes for Utah, I really think they are a top 10 team, but not a top five team. But they won all their games, and beat an overrated Alabama team in the Sugar Bowl. So they deserve a number 2 ranking. I do think that they are really in the class of Oregon, Oregon State, and Cal. Not in the class of Florida or USC.

At the end of the year, I think Oregon was playing superbly. Oregon State I gave a high ranking because they lost the Roger's boys, and they still thumped Oklahoma State.

I think the difference between number 9 Texas Tech and number 19 Boise State is nothing. Any of those could be interchanged. However, I did what I did based on the won loss record and the total number of top 25 wins. And then I adjusted based on my opinion. So there.

As far as it goes, I think my poll does diverge from the AP and others based on the fact that I actually watch west coast games, as well as east coast games. So I did include west coast teams in my poll.

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I do want to say about the AP poll: there are nine 4 loss teams ahead of Cal, and 5 three loss teams ahead of Cal. Of those teams, 5 had the same wins against top 25 oposition (one of which was Oregon, who we beat). There were three who had one win against top 25 opposition, and 6 who had NO wins against top 25 opposition. But the Bears were ranked behind all of them. It is a joke.

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At least the Men's hoop team is getting some love finally. We are not ranked yet, but will be after this weekend. Right now, the Bears are ranked number 10 in the RPI, and will improve with a road victory today against Washington. There are only 7 teams with as many victories as the Bears, and only one team with more - 15-0 Clemson. The Bears are tied with 6 other teams with 14 wins. Before the season, I predicted 18 wins would get us into the tournament. I think at this point, even though we are still early in the season, we are playing for seeding. The Bears could come back from next weeks road trip 5-0 in the Pac 10, after bearing Washington and Stanfurd on the Road. I could easily see us beating the Oregon Schools at home the week after, and go to LA 7-0 in the Pac 10. Granted, if we lost the last 11 games of our season, we may not make it. But there is a very real chance of finishing the first half of the season 7-2 or 8-1 in Pac 10 play. And that is the tough half of the conference season. This year, we get more teams at home in the second half.

I was nervous going into the Washington State game. I was concerned because that is a tough place to play, and they have a good team. But the Bears handled themselves well. It seems like they have a good head on, and are committed to playing to their potential. That has not been the case in a long time.

It used to be that we would wins many games because we were simply better, and some games that we should not because we got hot. But inevitably we would lose some games because we just had a brain cramp. These Bears seem to have a mental toughness that has been lacking in these parts for as long as I can remember.

It's nice to see.

GO BEARS!!

Bears Winning Week

2009-01-06T15:18:00.001-08:00

While I have not posted as much as I would have liked to over the past weeks, it seems clear to me that the Cal Bears athletic programs are at a point not seen in 50 years.

The Bears hoops team is on the rise, and if we can get though this weekend undefeated in conference play against beatable but tough Washington teams, the Bears will be in the top 25 in both polls, and probably the top 10 in the RPI (currently 14th).

The Football team will also finish in the top 25, I predict, after the final polls are taken, having gone 9-4 in a rebuilding year, with a bowl victory over a big name, Miami (even though Miami is down).

Football recruiting is cruising along, plugging in what seems like all of the gaps to make the Bears a strong contender for the conference title next season, with what I think is a pretty good schedule to make it. Maryland at home, USC at home, Oregon State at home, and Arizona at home. The only issue is Oregon away, and I think we can take those guys (particularly since the entire Oregon football staff seems to be falling apart).

The Women's basketball team is fighting to maintain perennial top 10 status, becoming a national fixture in recruiting.

Water polo, Women's Volley Ball, Crew, Rugby, Softball, are at the top of the nation in each sport year after year. Baseball, Men's and women's soccer and Gymnastics are almost there. Same with Field hockey, Tennis, and Golf.

So, in almost all major sporting endeavors, the Bears are at the top of the nation, or in the top 25. In fact, Track and Field is the only sport where there is much room for improvement is track and field, where the addition of Jahvid best and Shane Vareen would improve the team considerably.

The Student Athlete High Performance Center is going up,which will not be just a gym, but a fully integrated physical, nutritional and emotional / psychological training facility - the first of it's kind in the US for college athletics. It will bring state of the art training and conditioning to a whole range of athletes at Cal.

The funding for the University Athletic programs are in place, which essentially means that Football is stabilized. Jeff Tedford just signed a long term contract extension - he is here until 2015. He also has put in place at Cal a deferred compensation plan which means to me that he does really want to stay until retirement, because that is not the kind of plan you use to defer comp when there is no expectation that you are going to be staying. He has said that Berkeley is his home, and he has turned down other colleges, as well as the NFL. In fact, I could see him here for another 20 years, bring Cal multiple BCS games and perhaps a few national championships. Recruiting is actually picking up, I think, for the Bears. There are few institutions that offer what Cal can - world leading education, as well as top level athletics, in a top living destination. I would count on one hand the number of Universities that can offer that - maybe Texas. UCLA if it had a decent football team and not a scumbag coach. USC if it actually offered academics. Michigan and Ohio State if they were in a nice part of the world. Stanford if they had a football team.

Football drives the funding, and the new sales process for the seat plan will definitely put the cash in the Athletic Department's pocket. And we have confidence that we can build it all because we have a good team, which will be a great team, and will continue to drive the success of the other programs at Cal.

I see a time in the not too distant future where Cal wins the Sears cup year after year - even though we do not count crap like fencing. The Bears will win multiple National Championships, and will be a strong contender in every sport. It all comes down to the money that football raises, and the investment in the right talent in coaching. And because of the investment in Jeff Tedford, the Cal football cash cow will soon drive all of the athletic programs to the top of the charts.

What does that mean to the University? Frankly, it means that when all of the sports are endowed with a quarter billion dollars, the athletic department will be on solid ground. That athletics will start to support educational missions, rather than the University funds supporting athletics. That more and more donors will be putting funds in both the school and athletics, since success breeds familiarity, and in fundraising, that breeds cash.

What Sandy Barour has done to set the table for the Bears over the next decades has been tremendous. She deserves every bit of praise that she gets. These past few years have been years of great growth and success and it will only grow from here.

GO BEARS!!

Cal Hoops starts Pac 10 Play

2008-12-31T02:29:00.000-08:00

Cal basketball is starting Pac 10 play with the highest position in terms of RPI since I have been watching the Bears. We currently are at 27 (down from 13 last week after playing home games against three lowly ranked teams). But still - 27 going into the conference and at 11-2. We could lose 11 pac 10 games and still get into the tournament, depending on the home and away split. We are also liked by Sagarin, which currently has us at number 33 in his most accurate rating system. So we are solidly in the hunt as a decent team.

Other news - the Bears lead THE NATION in three point shooting. We have become a great shooting team. Wow - when did this all happen. Oregon won a few years ago with fantastic guard play and terrible inside game. i think we could be like they were this year. They have to come out to guard us, and it opens up a bit more inside.

So, this is exciting for the Bears hoops team after half a decade of progressively getting worse, and hoping that the turn-around is right around the corner. I still feel that there is quite a bit of work to be done on our hoops program - we need five years of tournament play to move up to the level where we are getting guys consistently wanting to play for us, staying home in the Bay Area, and getting some international guys. We can not afford to continue to hope we get some diamonds in the rough. Our recruiting needs to be more consistently good. We have a great story to tell academically, with our facilities, as well as with our culture as a university. We need to continue to win to make it all hang together, and become a powerhouse. I believe that it is going to come in football, and I think it can come in basketball as well. If we can get five good years from Monty, then I think we are good.

GO BEARS!!

Style Points

2008-12-29T22:56:00.001-08:00

A lot of folks on the message boards are hyped up about how the game against the Hurricanes was not pretty - the passing stunk, the Bears should have run Miami into the ground, etc... I think the point is, the last game of the season style points do not matter. 9-4 is 9-4 - we won the bowl game. There is no other game after the Bowl. If we lost, I could be pissed, since we should have won. But winning dominantly in a crappy mid-tier bowl game is not going to do anything for anyone.

At the end of the bowl season, folks are going to look at Cal and say - hey they beat Miami by 7 - just like the spread said. Good for them - they are a top 25 - 30 team at 9-4. Which is what we are.

Was anyone really surprised that our passing game was not our strength? Is there really outrage about that? Can anyone really come up with more vitrol about Nate Longshore? We had an inadequate passing game all season long, with either Nate or Kevin at the helm. What was two weeks of extra practice going to change? We still had the same QBs - one apparently injured - who were throwing the passes. I was excited as heck that Best was kicking butt and taking the game onto his shoulders, and the defense did another great job. I was worried about that before the game, as I knew that was the only way we were going to win. So what if our passing game sucked again. I expected it. To expect otherwise is simply silly, and to complain again about what is the same, week in and week out is kind of boring.

The amazing thing is that we are 9-4 with the worst passing season since 2000, and injuries to both our first and second string QB at some point during the season. rushed for 188 yards per game and passed for 189 yards per game. Remarkably balanced and decent stats at the end of the year. But, unfortunately, some do not like to see the sausage being made.

Our offense this year was not pretty most of the time. But we got the job done enough in this rebuilding year to make a strong showing, and to get guys experience who needed it. We developed a tremendous defensive philosophy which I think will make the Bears a place to play for skilled defensive players. We also developed experience where we desperately needed it this season - throughout the entire offense. We needed players on the line, at wide-receiver, as well as a more experience for our running backs as well as our QBs. And we got it. We are going to be a much better team next year, even with 5 starters lost to graduation.

The nice thing is, many of those starters will earn a spot on an NFL team. As have most of the Bears recently who have gone through the system, and who have started for us on a consistent basis. We are now a feeder team for the NFL. Last year, we had 7 guys drafted. This year, probably 4 or 5. Next year, the same, I could see the same, depending on who comes out early, if anyone. If you average 5 per year, that means that 20 to 25% of your players will be playing in the pros. And that generates interest. And that generates excitement, which generates talent.

The last 4 years, since Aaron Rogers left, Nate Longshore has been the starter (except when he has been injured, or this year on again / off again). This is the Nate Longshore era. And, you live and die by your QB. During that time, Cal won 34 games, and lost 17. During that time, we won our first Pac 10 Championship - shared with USC - since 1975. During that time, Cal won 4 bowl games. During that time, Nate Longshore started 30 games and won 20 of them for the Bears. The rest of the victories have been by backup QB Riley, Ayoob and Levy, who went a combined 14-7. In other words, no real difference.

As a comparison to Aaron Rogers - he was 17 -5 in his Cal career as a starter.

In other words, if we had Aaron Rogers, we would have won exactly 1.3 more games. I can see that.

Let's face it - Cal has had a great run over the last 7 years with Jeff Tedford at coach.

1) We have been to bowl games 6 years running, and have won 5 of them.
2) Of course - no losing seasons
3) More weeks ranked in the top 25 than in the previous 50 years combined.
4) More players drafted into the NFL than 95% of all other division 1A teams.
5) New football facilities being built
6) New Stadium Retrofit / remodel, to make football and athletics sustainable for the next 50 years at Cal.
7) Consistently top 25 recruiting classes
8) No shenanigans with NCAA violations
9) Improved academic standing for the entire team
10) Improved expectations, to where 9-4 is a disappointing year.

Let's face it - I think we could have easily beaten Maryland this year. I think we should have beaten them, as well as Arizona, and possibly Oregon State. But certainly Maryland. And that would get us to 10 wins. Last year, of course, we should have had 10 wins as well, except for the fateful injury. In fact, we should be coming off 4 years of 10 wins per season. And I do believe that we are going to make that a habit in the future. And if that is the case, then eventually we will be in BCS games, and we will be in the Rose Bowl. We got screwed in 2004 - but that will not happen again - they made an extra spot for us. So the Bears are doing fine.

GO BEARS!!

Emerald Bowl Win

2008-12-29T17:20:00.000-08:00

Well, the Bears defeated the Hurricanes in a dominant display of running and defense, and a truly terrible display of our passing game. Apparently, Kevin Riley was injured and Nate Longshore needed to play the entire game. Normally, I think that it would be fine for Nate to play the whole game. I remember watching Nate and DeSean Jackson after the Holiday Bowl when we defeated Texas A&M in 2006 - Nate was the MVP, and he played great. They were predicting a national championship the next year. And we almost made it - except for those last 6 games.

it is a strange end to a pretty good Cal career. He ends up as 5th on the all time Cal passing list. There are some pretty good players on that list. He has started and won more Cal games than any other QB for the Bears in the last half century. He has been the starting QB for half of Jeff Tedford's tenure at Cal. And that has been a pretty impressive tenure. Tedford and Pete Carroll are the only Pac 10 coaches to not have a losing season at their current schools. Nate - for all the hatred that is thrown his way, is a big part of that.

That being said, he played dreadfully on Friday Night. It was really surprising. I mean, there were plenty of people open who would have made big plays and gotten plenty of receiving yards after catch if Nate could have hit them in stride. In the first quarter, there were three passes that were just horrible.

I understand the desire of JT to have a balanced attack. Generally that works, and it would have worked very well if Nate could hit anyone. But at the end of the day, it was clear that Jahvid Best was the best option, and he should have had at least 35 carries on the night. The Bears would have had at least 400 yards rushing. Anything that the Bears ran outside was at least a 15 yard gain. It was like watching a man amongst kids.

The defense also was dominating. It was fun watching the three and outs, the negative yards for almost the entire first half, the interception, fumble, etc.

But this game did not give us the bounce that I think we needed. The Bears will certainly be taken more seriously next year that this year - Jahvid Best is going to be on everyones radar screen as a Heisman hopeful, and certainly as one of best running backs in the country. Averaging more than 8 yards per carry is pretty good in a single game. Over a season, it is crazy.

At the end of the year, Jahvid Best had 1580 rushing yards - number 5 in the country right now. That was averaging less than 15 carries per game this year. All of the guys currently in front of him in total yardage have at least 80 more carries than he has this year - in other words - about 30% more.

In any event, he is going to be a devastating weapon for the Bears next year. And I am excited about that.

But our offense needs balance, and to that end, the Kevin Riley era needed to begin well in this bowl game. It would have been nice to bring positive momentum into the offseason for Kevin, and it would have been nice for him to have gotten in synch with the receivers a little bit. I think it will happen, but it would have been a bigger media splash if he came out, had a huge game, and we destroyed the U. Instead, we barely win on a defensive play (not that it ever seemed to me that the game was in doubt) and the Bears go into the offseason worrying about the QB position again.

Oh well. At least we know one QB who has been eliminated.

GO BEARS!!

Bears Hoops wins a big one

2008-12-21T12:25:00.000-08:00

Cal wins a big one last night against Nevada, and so goes to number 10 in the RPI rankings. This is huge. While we all talk about the bears weak out of conference schedules over the last few years, and event today, it does not seem like we are going up against the big guys. But the Bears currently have played the 9th toughest schedule, and are 8-2 against it.

Granted, we lost the two toughest games that we scheduled - Florida State and Missouri. But both of those guys are in the top of the RPI rankings. And we beat Utah, which is number 32, and 10-2 UNLV, which is highly ranked.

When it comes to the Pac 10 tournament season, it looks more and more likely that the league is not up to what it was last year, and the Bears have a decent shot at getting through it in pretty good shape. We clearly have holes in our game, but when your guys can shoot, it make a big difference. Opponents have to change their defense, and come out of their comfort zones. This is the first year in a while when Cal seems to have shooters and a point guard who can also shoot. If we had a dominating big man or two this would be a great team.

The nicest part of the schedule so far, which has really helped us in the RPI rankings, is that many of our games have been on the road or at least in neutral territory. The Global Sports Classic was a great Tournament for the Bears since 1) it gave a huge PRI boost getting to the finals, and 2) it gave the team the idea that it could play in a tournament scenario and do well. Also, going on the road to play Missouri (a loss - so only count's a little against us) and Utah - a win, so it counts as 1.4 wins) is great. If you are going to play decent teams - do it at their house. That way, if you lose the loss is not that bad, and if you win it is a huge boost. And the tournament committee looks at your OOC record in a HUGE way. These games are going to help the Bears later on.

Anyway, I think that this is the best that the Bears could have hoped for going into the season. Our next few games at home - the Golden Bear Classic and the game against Colgate - need to be wins since they are all teams that the Bears should win. If Monty can get us through the OOC schedule without the traditional loss to the crappy team that kills our post-season hopes, then he will have earned a major portion of his salary and reputation. This is why we got him and got rid of Braun. Losses to DePaul (2 times) and Eastern Michigan, and San Diego and San Diego State kept us out the the tournament three times over the last five years.

IF the Bears go into the season with 11 wins already, they need to win 9 in season for a decent tournament seed (7 or higher) and 8 to get in. But this year, I think the Bears could surprise some folks, and make it a 12 win Pac 10 season. And that would give us a 5 seed or better.

Anyway, lots still left to play with this team. Let's hope we can keep it together.

GO BEARS!!

Updates

2008-12-17T23:31:00.001-08:00

The Bears got some bad news, I think, when offensive line coach Jim Michalczik decided to go to Washington and be the offensive coordinator for the Huskies. Coach M is a great offensive line coach, and is a tremendous developer of line talent.

On the one hand, he has been with the Bears for 7 years, and sometimes that gets stale. But I think the bigger reason is that he was the offensive coordinator last year, and essentially was demoted this year to co-offensive coordinator, after the implosion last year.

If you remember, last year was the year when Coach Tedford decided to call plays. It did not work out so well. But the Bears did have a pretty good offense last year (certainly better than this year under new offensive coordinator Cignetti).

Now, when I say demoted, I am sure that it was not a real demotion - because in fact, initially, it was not a real promotion. He was not making, for example, the type of coin that Defensive Coordinator Gregory is making - about 30% more than Coach M. He did not have total responsibility for that side of the ball, as that was mostly Tedford's side of things. And, Tedford did spend a good deal of time there, considering that he decided after the season that he was not doing enough of a good job managing the team. And so when he went to get an offensive coordinator, he did not hire the guy already in the job in name - he went out and got someone who could actually be an offensive coordinator - at least in JT's mind. And Michalczik went back to the line coach and co-offensive coordinator.

Prior to last year, Michalczik was also Assistant Head Coach - which means that you get to do a lot of the crappy administrative things that head coaches have to do - and so he probably learned quite a bit about dealing with the administration, the athletic department, etc.

All of this means is that he though he had some upward mobility as a Bear coach, and he found out he did not - they brought in the other guy. But he is so well respected that he deserves a shot at an offensive coordinator spot - you are never going to be a head coach until you are a coordinator. And so, when a slot opened up in Washington (his home state) he grabbed it.

Looking ahead, this is a two step process for Michalczik. First, he is going to learn from Sarkisian the USC method, as well as the BYU method. He already has the Tedford method. And the Tedford method and the USC method are probably not too dissimilar. But the next step for Michalczik is to wait for the coaching opportunity to open up at his alma mater in another year when Paul Wulf gets canned at Washington State.

Unless Sarkisian is a complete idiot (and he did not take the Raider job, so me might not be a complete idiot), then the huskies will do better. And with Locker back, they may do significantly better, and maybe even get to a bowl game. They are not playing Oklahoma and BYU - they will get Idaho, some second tier school, and then maybe even beat a reeling Notre Dame. In any event, the Huskies will win at least 4 games next year. So when Washington State is looking for a alumni connection with some good experience, he will be the guy.

Of course, there is tremendous downside to this move for him as well. He will not be calling the plays, so he still will not get the experience that he needs to be a true offensive coordinator. Also, it is possible that Sarkisian will be a total disaster, and the Huskies go through a second year of crap.

As far as the Bears go, we need to get someone who is really, really good. We have had a huge run of great lines thanks to Michalczik, and we need to have that continue. I am sure there are guys out there. But we need to get someone in who is top-notch in what I consider one of the most critical position coach jobs on a football team. Let's face it - skill guys have it or not. Linemen do not have it - they need to be coached. And a good coach can make all the difference. Maybe that is a little simplistic, but there is a good bit of truth to that.

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The good news is the exciting world of defensive recruiting. The Bears are lighting it up on that side of the ball recruit wise, with more to come. And that is based solely on our switch to the 3-4 defense, in my opinion. We are getting guys in the mold of Zack Follett, who can come off the edge and get the QB, or are fast enough to drop back and play pass. It is very exciting, and I think the defensive recruiters have done a wonderful job.

This is shaping up to be a tremendous recruiting class for the Bears - filling the spots that we needed on the defense to maintain our momentum, while at the same time watching our offense get a year older and better. We should be much improved next year, and, frankly, I think a top 10 team.

GO BEARS!!

All this

Huge win over Utah for Men's Hoops

2008-12-11T17:40:00.000-08:00

The Cal men's hoops team beat Utah on the road in a huge win for the program. This is going to be a signature win in the preseason for the Bears. Utah is in the tough Mountain West conference, which currently has an RPI level above the Pac 10.

Cal currently lead the Pac 10 in RP!, at 14, while Stanfurd is number 2 at 34. The Bears at 7-2 (both losses on the road) are strong contenders to come into the Pac 10 leading in the RPI standing. We have some RPI poison to eat with Dartmouth, Colgate and surprisingly Nevada coming to town, all of whom are rated at 200 or higher (Nevada is 200). At the end of the day, however, the Bears will come into the season, assuming they win out the OOC race, below 50 RP!. Which is a very good place to start Pac 10 play.

The only team in the Pac 10 who is truly horrible is Oregon State, where our future president's brother in law is (they are 1-5). I wonder how hard it will be to fire him. Our new assistant, John Jay, must feel at least a little vindicated.

GO BEARS!!

Best is the Best

2008-12-08T03:47:00.000-08:00

Jahvid Best put the nation on alert for 2009. He is going to have a special year. The difference was, in the last two games he was healthy. And so he rushed for over 500 yards.

At the beginning of the year, he was amazing, but still was getting taken down by less than a full frontal tackle. In other words, he was not breaking tackles, he was simply outrunning folks. The last two games, albeit against lesser opponents, he was breaking tackles, making moves, and dominating the game. Which is nice, since we do not have a passing game at this point.

In other words, we have morphed into Nebraska, era 1993. Great defense, great running game, no passing. I can no remember a season where we have had so many under 150 yard passing efforts.

That being said, we are 8-4, going to play a pretty good Miami team in the Emerald bowl. It should be mostly Bear fans, and the Hurricanes think they are going to sunny California. My, won't they be surprised.

I think the Bears are really doing a good job defensively this year, both from a recruiting standpoint as well as on the field. Our recruiting thus far seems to be targeting the type of linebackers who can really rush - speed guys who hit, a la Zack Follet. It looks like the 3-4 is here to stay, based on the guys we are currently getting in the door. With that being said, and the defensive line and backfield sticking together for another year, we have a great shot at having another great year on that side of the ball.

Offensively, we need to work on our passing game. Our running game will be fine - our line will develop, hopefully with 5 or 6 fewer injuries. But we got a lot of guys time this year. Next year, we should be much better on the line, with Guarrano at center, MSG, Schwartz, maybe Tepper, and Cheadle, Teofilo or someone else slotted in there. All of these guys got some time this year, and will be in the rotation. I am excited about them and I think that it will be a strength of our team over the next two years.

The biggest issue that we may have next year is receivers, although with Calvin back, and more time for the others, I think we will be fine. Langeman will also be back from injury, and I think he will be a revelation. So we have three current starters all back, and two or three others who will go into the rotation. If we can pick up someone else to make an immediate impact, we should be fine. Boateng and Tucker can be all pac 10 if they get it together. Both have the skills, they just need the consistency. And to get the ball on target.

Riley I believe will also be much improved. Next year, he will not be looking over his shoulder, and he will be maturing in other ways. He certainly has the skills to be a great QB. He just needs to get his head together.

I am pretty pumped up about next season. Although we have a tough schedule, I think it will work out. SC is going to be way down next year. This was their year to go. Sarkisian is leaving, so offense is going to be a big deal to them. Someone is going to have to come in and do it Pete Carroll's way, and that is going to leave some bumps in the road. I think as Bear fans, we know how it goes when the offensive coordinator is changed, even with a strong head coach.

Their defense is going to be decimated. And, frankly, their offense is not that good. So we have a great chance next year of taking those guys. Plus, we have them early in the season, so we have the shot at their typical early season screw-up.

Oregon, Oregon State, Arizona, Arizona State and UCLA will be decent, but we should be able to take them all. And we should never lose to the furd again.

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As far as the game on Saturday, it was a little disappointing to see how few actually showed up to give the seniors a send-off. It was nice to see Nate get a big hand. But at the beginning of the game, when they came out, it seemed like there were only about 20K fans there. Pretty sad.

As far as it goes, I think they Bears get a few of the guys playing on Sunday. Mack, Follett are first day picks, and I think Nate actually gets picked in the 6th or 7th round - there are not a lot of great QBs coming out this year. I think Nate is in the top 15 of QBs, and there will be 20 taken. He has the arm strength and size that the NL likes, and he can just say Tedford screwed him over - all the NFL guys will accept that.

The other guys that have a decent shot at getting drafted are Worrell Williams, and Rulon Davis. WIll Ta'ufo'ou, Hicks and maybe Malele and Kane get a shot at a free agent slot.

Nick Sundberg could end up being one of the longest tenured NFL players of the group, going possibly as a long snapper. He is near perfect.

GO BEARS!!

Hoops RPI

2008-12-01T16:22:00.000-08:00

I did not want to post too early in the season, for the very reason that I now sadly have to report. Until the game last week against Florida State, Cal was ranked #8 in the RPI, riding a 5-0 record to the finals of the Global Sports Classic championship game. Then, the played Florida State, who was ranked 35 in the RPI, and lost. So the Bears are now down to 33 in the RPI.

Not that this terribly matters this early in the season. However, the next three games for the Bears are critical and will go a long way toward telling us if we have any hope this season, or if it is all a rebuilding year.

The Bears face DePaul (RPI 27) at home, Missouri (RPI 109) and Utah (RPI 4) on the road in the next three games. Then, they come back and play Nevada. It is a tough pre-season schedule - probably one of the toughest since I remember. These are all decent teams who will either make or break our OOC RPI measurement. The good news is losing on the road to Utah or Missouri is not so bad. You only get .6 of a loss on the road. That is why it is critical that the Bears win at home. This game against DePaul is critical, as is the Nevada game and the rest of the home OOC schedule.

If the Bears can come into the season with a top 75 RPI, they should be in good shape to get into the tournament. The Pac 10 is a tough league once again this year, but we should be able to eek out a 500 season, the minimum threshold to get into the tourney. i think Montgomery is showing some coaching skills so far, and it seems like it is translating into winning. If we can shoot like we are, and play tough defense against the speed teams, and hope for the best against the big teams, we may be able to do something.

Anyway, an encouraging beginning of the hoops season. Let's hope it continues on.

GO BEARS!!

Odds and Ends

2008-12-01T15:12:00.000-08:00

First - The bears are likely going to the Emerald Bowl in San Francisco, to the dismay of the team members and to the excitement of many local fans who can not travel this year due to untold financial hardship. I think it will be good to have a home game - it would be better if the visiting team was someone better than an ACC also-ran. However, Cal already lost to an ACC also-ran this year, so it will be good for redemption in a sense. That is why I am rooting for Boston College, Florida State or Virginia Tech, as opposed to Wake Forest. Maryland lost to all those first teams, and the game would be much higher profile. Beating Wake Forest would be nice but not that much of a boost.

It would also have been nice to go to the Holiday Bowl and play someone like Okie State or Missouri, and see how we measure up.

As far as the team goes, I think it is better that the game is later in the year - more practice time and less need interrupt finals for the practice sessions. At the end of the day, I think the Bears are going to have a good time and kick some butt. All the stuff about staying home is BS - you do not hear USC folks complaining about the Rose Bowl being in their back yard, do you? OK - maybe a bad example.

On the other hand, it would be nice to have some better bowls for the top three or four Pac 10 teams to get sent to. The Emerald is for the 7th place ACC team. We are 4th in the Pac 10. Kinda sucks. The good news is that this year, the entire ACC is tied so it is difficult for them to decide who goes where.

As far as it goes, i was really disappointed that Oregon State lost to Oregon over the weekend. It would have been nice to see one of the 9 dwarfs kick the Toejams out of the Rose. It also would have been nice to split an additional $4.5 million for the conference. The Pac 10 refs should have known this. Oh well. I think this makes the Pac 10 much more likely to win most of the bowl games than if the Beavers went to the Rose. Here is my bowl line up right now for the Pac 10:

Rose - SC vs Penn State (USC wins)
Holiday - Missouri vs Oregon (Missouri)
Sun - West Virginia vs Oregon State (Oregon State)
Vegas - BYU vs Arizona St (BYU)
Emerald - Wake Forest vs Cal (Cal)
Hawaii - Hawaii vs Arizona (Arizona)

I am predicting that AZ state beats Arizona and gets into Bowl contention. If that is the case, both would be 6-6, and eligible for bowls based on the Pac 10 schedule. The Vegas would take whichever one they thought would do better. The Bears would still be sent to the Emerald. Overall, I think the Pac 10 loses two and wins the rest. Although whichever Mountain West team they send to the Vegas Bowl (BYU or TCU) will probably beat whichever Arizona team they send to match up with them. I think the Bears would beat either TCU or BYU, but that will not be the matchup, and the Mountain West will move to 7-1 on the year against the Pac 10. Totally embarrassing - even though they feasted on our weaklings for the most part. Thankfully the Bears kicked the crap out of Colorado State to eliminate the shutout.

As far as it goes, the whole National Championship thing is a debacle. Texas got screwed, which is fine. But the way they did it was stupid. The BCS is an end of the year ranking system, not designed to be used as a tiebreaker in a conference matchup. If a conference wanted to use a computer based system to pick the matchup, they should have developed one, and not been lazy and relied on the BCS. There are lots of tiebreaker formulas floating around out there. The NFL uses a ton of them to get to their playoff picture. So a conference out do the same. but relying on voters who are focused on Ohio State vs Ohio University to vote for who is playing in the Big 12 south championship slot is stupid.

Bottom line - Texas beat both of the teams playing in the championship game (Missouri and Oklahoma). But they were hosed. Tough luck Mack Brown, which is not a bad thing. But this was a terrible process.

As far as it goes, it is also incredible that no one is calling out the SEC this year. They are terrible. Alabama is not a good team. Yet, there they are, playing for the National Championship. i think they beat Florida, who is not that good either. Not that they suck, but they would certainly not be with only one loss playing in the Big 12 south.

I think USC is getting screwed this year, but they could have done something about it. Same with Florida. If Alabama wins, I would think they deserve a shot at the title. But if they lose, I would have Oklahoma and Texas go at it again. That would be a fun game to watch.

Too bad it is not going to happen.

Here are the bowl matchups that I want to see:

Poinsettia - Boise State and TCU - great matchup in a crappy venue. Huge game overshadowing the Oregon / Missouri game a week later in San Diego.

Rose - Good traditional matchup - I think SC gets a decent test but not a real threat. Another slow Big 10 team loses in the Rose.

Sugar - Alabama at Utah - Alabama loses and goes to the Sugar. Florida to the NCG and Utah kicks Alabama's ass. Plus, all the Mormons getting sloshed in New Orleans is fun.

Cotton Bowl - Texas Tech at Mississippi - probably the second best SEC team this year playing a great Texas Tech team. Huston Nutt and Mike Leach can both coach. Great matchup.

Capital One - Michigan State against Georgia. It would be nice to see State beat Georgia since we beat them handily. Georgia is not that good.

Chick-fil-A - Georgia Tech against LSU - nice to see LSU lose another one.

Anyway, some nice matchups coming up in the next month. Should be fun.

GO BEARS!!

Bears Dominate the Furd

2008-11-23T16:31:00.001-08:00

A big game to end the discussion of who is the better team - the team on the rise, or the stumbling giant. I think that the answer was very clear - the Bears, while not doing all that well this season, are still head and shoulders above most other teams in the Pac 10, the country, and particularly, the Furd.

Stanfurd had to play directionally - they play hard, straight away football. They do not have the skill or speed to adjust to misdirection on either side of the ball, and they were exposed. The Cal team speed was much more than they could deal with. It was only a few plays (thank you, Jahvid Best) that blew the game open, but they were enough.

Even with continued poor QB play (the first INT by KR was terrible - there was a wide open tight end down the middle for a score, and instead thrown into coverage), the Bears were never in risk in this game. The defense is really ending the season on a high note. With Washington coming into town and the Bears re-thinking last years game, it could be a good time to shut out the Huskies and nail shut the Willingham coffin.

The best play of the year was the hitch and pitch (hook and ladder - whatever you want to call it). Awesome. The Bears also had the first reverse for a score since last year's DeSean jackson masterpiece against Colorado State.

And yes, Best was spectacular, with his career best 201 yards rushing, 25 receiving. He is going to be offensive player of the week. More than twice Kevin Riley's offense.

If we can get untracked against Washington, and give Kevin Riley a dose of confidence, then I think we have a chance in the Holiday Bowl against Missouri or Texas Tech, or whoever else the Big 12 sends. The next two weeks is exciting for BCS watchers and bowl prognosticators - it is fun to find out who you will be playing, where, the excitement of making plans for the travel, all that stuff.

Unless you are a Stanfurd fan.

GO BEARS!!

Big Game

2008-11-20T23:40:00.000-08:00

The Big Game is this week, and it really is a big game for many reasons this season. First of all, Stanfurd's bowl hopes are riding on a victory. T So that is a significant reason for the Bears to crush them.

Second, losing two in a row to Stanfurd is a bad thing. Period.

Third, we lost last year to the furd. Need I say more (yes, in fact, that is different from 2).

Fourth - while many on the message boards are actually expressing respect for the 'furd's coach - the man is a buffoon. Just because someone is enthusiastic and gets college football players to play somewhat above their talent level is no reason to give him any credit. The man is an intellectual dwarf.

Fifth - we need to keep those guys down. Far down. We need to never lose to them. It's like playing your little brother in HORSE. You can never lose.

I could go on for hours. The reasons are numerous. The 'furd is against all that is pure and good in the world - they represent the corporatist world view that money solves everything, that life is good in a strip mall, that the market crash is a buying opportunity instead of the end of the world as we know it. They suck, and we need to do something about it. This is the change that is coming, baby, and it is all about the Cal Bears crushing the worthless worms into submission.

You know why you hate SC. They buy success, and they live with the criminals and all that nouveau riche trash comes with. Well, you hate Stanfurd because they were fed success from their mothers bosom - it is old money. They have been raised with one perfectly shined loafer on the escalator to the top floor, while the rest of us had to scrimp and scrape for the table scraps. This is about class. This is about pride. This is about good vs evil. We are a state school, baby, and this is where that matters.

GO BEARS!!

Pac 10 Race

2008-11-16T18:03:00.000-08:00

Here are the scenarios for the Pac 10 race:

Controls Destiny: Oregon St
Needs a little help: USC
Needs a lot of help: None
Can get into a tie, but odds are too remote to figure out whether or
not they could win the tiebreaker: Oregon
Eliminated: ASU, UCLA, Wash, WSU, Arizona, Cal, Stanford
Games that matter:

OSU-Arizona
OSU-Oregon
USC-UCLA

Scenarios:

OSU wins both: OSU
OSU loses either (or both), and USC wins: USC
OSU beats Arizona, but loses to Oregon, and USC loses: Three-way
tie between Arizona, Oregon, and USC, which will go to at least the
record against highest position in standings" level, which appears to
be TBD.
OSU beats Oregon, but loses to Arizona, and USC loses: OSU
OSU loses both, and USC loses: USC

The Bowls pick like this this year:

Rose - Champion
Holiday - second pick
Sun - third pick
Emerald - 4th pick
Las Vegas - 5th pick

I do not think that the Pac 10 will even fill the Vegas Bowl.

Here are the scenarios.

Oregon State wins out, SC goes to a BCS as an at large. They possibly could go to the NCG as an at large pick.

Holiday - Bears are third place team, with three conference losses. Arizona and Oregon have 4 losses and the Bears go to Holiday Bowl.

Oregon State loses to Arizona

SC goes to Rose, Oregon State goes to Holiday, Arizona goes to Sun, and Bears go to Emerald.

Oregon State loses to Oregon and beats Arizona

SC goes to Rose, Oregon State goes to Holiday, Arizona still goes to Sun (since they think they will get a better turnout) and the Bears go to Emerald

Oregon State loses to BOTH Arizona and Oregon

SC goes to Rose, Arizona goes to Holiday, Cal goes to Sun and Oregon goes to Emerald, and Oregon State goes to Vegas Bowl.

Guys - here is the big issue. There is only one game left between Stanfurd and a bowl game. I do not want those guys going anywhere. We need to keep them out. That means a big game by the Bears this weekend at home. Domination needs to be the word of the day.

Stanfurd is tough, but the Bears have the players to get it done if they come to play. That is going to be the issue. Coming off a hard road trip, it is time to regroup and win.

I am going on hiatus for a few days, as I am going on a 4 day field trip with my son to pan some gold. I expect to come back rich, and am willing to put all of my newfound wealth into the stadium project if the Bears win out the season. 9-4 is the Oregon State level. There is a big difference between third and 5th in the Pac 10. Coming back with 16 starters next year on the team, ranked in the top 25 at the end of the season, we can to a decent pre-season ranking and a little momentum. But we need to finish strong against the weak part of the schedule.

GO BEARS!!

GOOD NEWS - USC Not going to Rose Bowl!!

2008-11-16T10:50:00.000-08:00

Well, we have to be positive about something. I am excited that the Pac 10 will be represented by someone other than USC at the Rose Bowl - I just hope everyone else does the honorable thing and let's OSU win the next two games against tough opponents. I have to assume that is the real plan around the league - Oregon State is a bunch of overachievers, but they are in Corvallis - let's let them win - they are not going to get any good recruits anyway, and we can knock SC out.

The Bears do have something to play for this week - keeping the furd away from a bowl game, and getting the Axe back.

It will be an interesting game if Penn State goes to the Rose Bowl to rematch against the Beavers. i think the outcome will be quite a bit different. Not saying that the Beavers will win, but I do not think it will be the huge upset that the game was earlier in the season.

Bears are on track for the Emerald bowl, which will be nice since the economy is going to make it tough for fans to travel this year. We would still get a good representation at the Emerald.

GO BEARS!!

Kevin Riley Recall

2008-11-15T16:28:00.000-08:00

Well, I am officially off the Kevin Riley bandwagon. Tedford did what I though he would do - stick with Riley through thick and thin. I have to say that I was hoping that there would be something that started to shine through. But, frankly, he is the worst QB that Cal has had since I have been a Cal fan. Much worse than Ayoob or Longshore, the Bears the fans love to hate. 100 yards passing today on 25 attempts, after games earlier this season of 59 yards, 60 yards, etc. Jay Torchio or Steve Levy would be a much better option at this point.

Today, as well as all season long (except for the 4th quarter against the 4th string Maryland group), his play has been atrocious. He continues to take sacks at an huge rate, while he can't make a decision to save his life. His ability to scramble only matters if he is not scrambling backwards. He has no feel for the game. He had a single decent pass today that was on target, It was a drop to Morrah as he was hit when it arrived. Otherwise, everything was off.

I hope that this changes, because I do not see Nate coming in again this season. But frankly the Bears would have done much better with Nate playing all season, with Riley coming off the bench on occasion. He clearly is not ready to play in division 1. Last year, he played well in 4 quarters of the 7 that he played, and most thought that he should start based on those two games. Tedford did make a QB mistake this year - playing Riley.

What about those 4th quarter interceptions that Nate throws? Oh yeah, Riley throws them too. The only difference is that he also get's sacked, throws high and wide, and enjoys being a punching bag in the pocket.

When your defense plays their heart out to keep you in the game, when the opponents defense is bringing everyone, that is NOT the time to hold on to the ball and see what develops. That is not the time to test your young offensive lines staying power. That is the time to get rid of the ball on the quick slants, the first reads. Not hold onto it until there is five yards of separation. But because he is so inaccurate, he knows they would be picked. So he needs to hold on and hold on. He made zero decent plays today.

I do hope that he learns how to play QB before next season. I do not think the rest of the team will melt down, but it was interesting that Boatend was hoping that Nate would be playing - at least that is how I read his comments that he did not think Tedford should have switched QBs in the middle of the SC game.

It sucks when your QB can not deliver a ball to guys who are open. It sucks when your guy holds onto the ball far too long, and makes big plays for the other team. It sucks when...

Well, you get the picture,

Get ready, Beau Sweeney and Brock Mansion. Your time is coming..

GO BEARS!!

Prediction - Bears at Oregon State

2008-11-14T16:30:00.000-08:00

This is totally out of my ass, but I think the Bears blow away the Beavers tomorrow. Something in the range of 45 to 17.

Here is my thinking: First, the 3-4 is a much tougher defense to run against for a small, shifty back like Rogers of the Beavers. Paart of his ability, like Justing Forsett, is that he hits the hole superfast, and gets into the backers and secondary. Having the down-linemen on the defensive side take multiple holes gives the defense - read backers - more time to fill those holes. He is a good back, but I do not see him getting over 100 yards. And if that is the case, then the Bears win. As long as the defense plays like they did last week (which, it seemed like they were having fun, and that is always a good incentive to play well) we hold these guys to 17 or less.

Also, I do believe that Riley will have a breakout game. Nate was injured (shoulder) so there is no looking over your shoulder. And it is his home crowd. I think he takes some chances, and shows off a bit. And that is exactly what he needs to do. He needs to take this team under his control, and at Oregon State is the place to do it. So here is to hoping that they do well, cover the ridiculous spread ( we are three point dogs - because Sagarin says so - more on that in a minute). I think that this is the game that changes the Bears fortunes for the next two years.

As far as the spread goes, if you look at Sagarin's Predictor rating, he has the bears and Oregon State basically even, and Oregon State gets the three points because they are at home. So it is a three point spread for the Beavers.

Here is the deal with that - Oregon State gets the benefit of losing to Utah and to Penn State. The Bears, meanwhile, have a loss to Maryland. So Oregon State's loses are better, and that skews the Sagarin ratings a bit.

Cal also has a problem, because the ratings have us barely beating Michigan State, which was a much bigger win than the score suggests, as well as losing to SC by 14, which was a much closer game that the score was. And in a short, 9 game season, those two games matter. The good news - when we beat these guys, we really move up in the ratings.

GO BEARS!!

Bears at Oregon State

2008-11-12T22:01:00.000-08:00

Well, after a critical game that the Bears lost at USC, we are on the road again in Corvallis. The Bears are traveling to Oregon State to take on the Beavers in a stadium that Cal has won at the last two times we have played there. However, Oregon State has beaten the Bears 5 of the last 7 times we have played.

Under coach Mike Riley, the Beavers seem to get better as the year goes on. And that is borne out in our play against them over the years. We have not won a game against the Beavers, including last years game where we lost our first number 1 ranking in over 60 years, after October 2 in this decade.

What does that mean? Well, it probably has a little to do with how Oregon State competes in the Pac 10. They do get a lot of transfers, JC guys and otherwise gems in the rough that more traditional powers do not have to contend with. I think that they have a system in place which is a great learning program, and they play hard and fast and over the course of the season, their guys start to get it and play better.

At the same time, it could also be that they play better in poorer weather conditions. Who knows. It is a mark of a good coach that they get better through the year. On more established teams, if you have more established players, and they get injured, it seems like often the team can fall apart (see, Cal Bears, 2007).

But none of that matters now. Cal is a young team that I think is playing better as the season progresses. At least, I think the defense is playing tremendously better (save for that terrible Arizona game) and the offense is also getting better. I do not think I have to go into why I think the defense is playing well - they played excellent against USC, a pretty good football team. Offensively, our last two games (Oregon at home, and USC) I think our offense showed some improvement in key areas. Specifically, the offensive line subs got good playing time, and by the end of the SC game, seemed like they were getting battle tested and were doing OK. That is going to be critical this week. And our receivers look like they are starting to fight, and make some plays.

Clearly QB play for the Bears at SC was problematic. JT has said that Kevin Riley is going to start and clearly that means he is starting the rest of the season, except for catastrophe. He clearly played worse than Longshore at SC stat wise, but if he can actually get the passes to the receivers, then he was the much better QB. In other words, his mobility was such that the SC guys had to account for him, vs Nate, who could only throw for 4 yards at a time. When Riley was in there, the field for the Bears was much deeper, because the defense had to cheat up. They took away the long ball from Nate.

So it is Riley and we will see him for the next 30 games.

I think that although Oregon State is a decent team, the Bears are better, and we will win. They have won 4 in a row - against teams that have won a total of 7 games all year. They are looking at Cal, then Arizona, then Oregon. They are sitting there thinking about the Rose Bowl, and they are going to freeze up a bit. And we will take advantage of that. This is also a homecoming of sorts for Kevin Riley - lets hope he has a better game that Jeremiah Masoli did when Oregon came to California (Masoli went to school in SF).

I think that this is a breakout game for the Bears. It has been a long and difficult road since the last time these two teams met. This is the tipping point for the Bears - get over this. I predict that this is the first in a string of 17 straight victories for your Cal Bears, culminating in a sweet victory next year at the Rose Bowl and a National Championship. Well, maybe getting a bit ahead of ourselves. But I really do feel like this is turning the page on a tough year and moving forward with a new, Kevin Riley era of Cal football. This is the end of a pretty good Nate Longshore era -at least the first Nate year was pretty good.

Anyway, lets ride into the Big game week with a sweet victory.

GO BEARS!!

Bears at the Sugar Bowl

2008-11-10T22:12:00.001-08:00

Here is a dream scenario for the Bears, and a nightmare scenario for the BCS - how would you like to play at the Sugar Bowl this year against the SEC?

New Orleans at the holidays!!!

Here is how it could work.

The current BCS standing have the Bears at 29, but we are 26 in the polls (we are 30 in the computer polls with a .667 winning percentage). Our computer rankings will drop as we play more games - most of the teams have already played 10 times this year, while we have only played 9 times, which would translate into a 10% change in the computer rankings. That is significant - for Sagarin, for example, that would be a change in moving from 36th to 11th.

If we win out, we will probably be ranked in the 12-16 range in the computers on average. Based on the teams ahead of us that have to play each other, at least 7 will have losses. I predict that more like 10 to 12 will. Now, the Bears will not jump in front of all of them, but we will jump in front of enough to get to possibly 14 or 15 in the polls that count. With a little luck, we could get to say, 13. In any event, it could possibly be enough to get us into the BCS at large poll.

Now here is where it gets interesting. I assume that of the 14 teams that are in the at-large pool, 5 will be from the Big 12. 3 will be from the SEC. None will be from the ACC - maybe. The Big East will have none. The Big 10 will have two. And the Pac 10 will have two.

There are two scenarios where the Bears get into the BCS. One is where SC makes the title game, because Florida loses to Florida State or South Carolina but beats Alabama in the SEC title game, and does not get in. Or where Alabama loses to Auburn but beats Florida in the SEC title game. Both of those scenarios lose the SEC the title game.

The Big 12 will have someone in the title game. Whoever wins the Big 12 championship (which I hope is Texas Tech).

So if the SEC blows it, then SC has a great chance of getting in. Unless the voters want to see Texas vs Texas Tech again.

If SC goes to the NCG, the Bears would play Penn State in the Rose Bowl, or Ohio State if Penn State blows it against Michigan State. If SC does not go to the Championship game, then they would go to the Rose Bowl. And the Bears would be in competition with everyone else.

The second scenario is even more interesting, and probably more realistic (I do not think SC gets to the title game).

So here is how it would look. The Big 12 would be playing the SEC in the title game. The Fiesta would have one at large team. They would pick first from a pool of the following:

Boise State
Cal
Missouri
Utah
Oklahoma State
Oklahoma
Michigan State

The pre-set games would be:

NCG: Florida vs Texas Tech
Rose: Ohio State vs USC
Sugar: Alabama vs At Large (Second to pick)
Orange: Maryland vs At Large (Last to pick)
Fiesta: Texas vs At Large (First to pick)

The Fiesta gets the first pick. They pick Utah. The next pick would go to the sugar bowl, who would have the choice of picking the Pac 10 second place team, the Big 10 second place team, or the Big East Champion. They can not pick another Big 12 team. So they would have the opportunity of picking the Bears to beat the SEC champs second place team at home. Particularly if the other team is Michigan State, who Cal already beat this year. then, of course, the Big East team would play the ACC champ again in the Orange bowl.

So the final games would look like this:

NCG: Florida vs Texas Tech
Rose: Ohio State vs USC
Sugar: Alabama vs Cal
Orange: Maryland vs West Virginia
Fiesta: Texas vs Utah

I know it is a pipe dream, but there is a roadmap of making the BCS. All we have to do is win all of our games, and have a little luck in front of us.

Actually, playing in the Holiday Bowl against Oklahoma, Missouri, or Oklahoma State would be pretty fun as well.

GO BEARS!!

Poll Position

2008-11-09T12:56:00.001-08:00

The Bears come out of the weekend relatively unscathed in the rankings after a loss to SC, basically because everyone else ranked 20-25 in College football lost as well, and there just are not that many good teams. They dropped from 21 to 26. So we are bunched right now with everyone else in the Pac 10 - Oregon, Oregon State, and Arizona are all ranked close to the Bears.

In looking at the teams ranked 10 - 25 - all of them have games that they will be losing or favored to lose in the next two weeks. The Bears, we were able to go on the road and bear Oregon State this week, will have a very good chance of getting into the top 12 if we can win out.

Were we to do that, with a 9-3 record, we would be BCS eligible. Now, I doubt that we would be in the BCS, but it would be possible. Particularly if SC somehow makes it to the National Championship game. That would most likely be because Alabama lost but then beat Florida in the SEC championship game. I think whoever wins the Big 12 goes to the NCG.

Penn State losing this week makes it that much more likely that this scenario can win out. Alabama winning so poorly over the last few weeks is eroding their support.

It would also be possible for the Bears to play in the Fiesta, but I would assume that they would take someone from the Mountain West or Boise, which will probably be the highest ranked non-BCS school.

GO BEARS!!

SC Pain

2008-11-09T11:40:00.000-08:00

After the game last night I was more depressed than usual after a Cal game. That was an very winnable game against an opponent that would have given us a huge amount of credibility, and it would have sent us to the Rose Bowl, I am sure, had we won.

That being said, the eternal Cal Fan optimist in me is pleased with the results in a certain way. Cal is still effectively one of the top 25 teams in the country, and I think we will finish 9-3 and have a nice trip to the Holiday Bowl, or better yet, the Emerald Bowl, if Arizona wins out. It would be nice to save a bit of coin in these tough economic times, and see the Bears in the City.

In any event, the good news from last nights game was the defense. They held up well against a very good USC offense. Yes, they gave up 411 yards, but in the new version of the bend but don't break, the trojans scored very little. Much of that was due to stupid penalties on the Trojans, but it was also due to the fact that the Bears held tough on third down, holding them to 4 of 11, including three sacks and a number of broken up passes. Also, one very nice forced fumble by Zack Follett to keep the bears in the game late in the 3rd quarter.

The QB's did not play well, and so went our offense. SC definitely took away our running game, but they gave us plenty of room to pass. This was the typical Pete Carroll defense, which i think works well when you are not playing an excellent QB. Essentially, take the run away, put tons of pressure on the rush, and keep your safeties deep. But the Bears had plenty of opportunities to have huge passing plays, where the passes were simply misplaced.

Tedford took Nate out of the game after the first half. Statistically, Nate looked like he was doing well - 11 of 15 for 80 yards or so. But he had two picks that were luckily overturned by SC defensive penalties, and he simply fell down twice for huge losses - essentially giving the Trojans a tackle-less sack. So Tedford decided to go with Riley in the second half.

The first drive was very nice, until we scored. Because then the ref's took it away from the Bears, and that was the end of Kevin Riley. the next play was almost picked off, and the one after was picked off. And he was terrible after that . In fact, Kevin Riley only completed one pass after the first drive in the third quarter. He ended the game 4 of 16, for a dismal 25% pass completion rate.

It was clear that the play calling and the protection and all of the other things were working well. The bottom line is that there were plenty of open receivers down field - with like 5 yards separation - and Riley just did not hit them. He was clearly rattled.

I think it was the result of getting his bell rung last week, and I think that he was hearing footsteps. He did get sacked twice and he was getting the typical SC cheap-shot post throw hits. That being said, the passes were just way off. Next year, he makes all of those throws.

All in all, this was a good game for the Bears. The defense was very good. the special teams, except for the second-half kickoff going out of bounds, was fine. Giorgio Tavecchio is turning into my favorite kicker in a while. I loved his explanation to Tedford - all in his hands - about the his field goal, as he was running off the field. I think I saw Tedford shake his head and smile.

As far as it goes for the offense, I think a few things have emerged. Clearly, Riley needs to get his head on straight, but that will happen soon enough. It is clear that if he was not injured last week he would have started, and JT is quick to get him in VS Nate. So I am confident that he will start to play better. This game reminded me of the USC game when Aaron Rogers started and Reggie Roberson had to take over because he was getting pummeled in 2003. Except that we could not take him out. That being said, Nyan Boateng seemed like he is coming into his own - he is big guy and I think next year he tears it up. Also, it seemed like Verran Tucker is going to be another strong answer for us at the wide receiver spot. Getting someone else to step-up would be nice. And I think that will be Ross - I was very impressed with his end-around. He looked like a running back.

The line needs work, but there are plenty of quality players there, with more stepping up. A line next year with all of the guys getting a year under their belt will be plenty tough. It is hard this year, but they are all learning. Having only one upper classman on the line is not a recipe for success.

So there is reason for optimism. I think the offense is a work in progress and will continue to get better. The defense is playing well, and I do not see a drop -off for next year. In fact, I am really excited about next year.

This was a game that everyone knew would tell us where we are. It did. So, in a rebuilding year, the Bears go 9-3, and set up a big push for next year. Not too shabby.

GO BEARS!!

Riley to Play - Get the rubber room ready

2008-11-05T23:36:00.001-08:00

Apparently Kevin Riley is going to play on Saturday, a week after his head bounced between two helmets like a Ping Pong ball. Scary. i think this means that JT is really sold on KR, and that he really wants him to play. I also may be just to screw with the oddsmakers, who dropped the Bears 4 points in two days with the injury issue being played out. Who knows. I just hope this is the right decision and he does not develop Parkinsons disease at 38.

Speaking of football injuries - what the heck is the deal with all of these staph infections? Tom Brady, Barry Bonds and millions of others are getting infected with these arthroscopic procedures that should be a walk in the park. It is a crazy business.

Last year, according to the New England Journal of Medicine, $70 billion dollars of unnecessary infections were created in our nations hospitals, or about 4.5% of the total health care spending in the country. That would be enough to give most of the uninsured children in the country health coverage. Brady goes in for two additional procedures. What is the deal with that? It is because the teams, and their physicians, and their facilities frankly do not get cleaned properly.

If I were the Cleveland Browns, I would wash the entire facility down with bleach after each practice. They have had five guys in the last few years miss games because of staph infections. USC has had a rash (no pun intended) of staph infections (11 players) and has dealt with it severely. The biggest part is that the bacteria can live not only on the body, and transfered by contact, but it can also transfer into the shoulder pads and other pads that can be transfered to other players in that manner.

Kellen Winslow is the latest Brown to be sidelined because if it.

The Bears need to be particularly mindful of this as some think artificial surfaces can cause greater outbreaks of infection, as the bacteria can stick on the field on the artificial surfaces for a short period of time. Getting the rug burn can turn dangerous when it is also filled with dangerous bacteria. This is more true for the Bears since they both play and practice on the artificial surface. I know that some of the new surfaces have anti-bacterial properties, but those are newer surfaces, and I doubt that the one the Bears put in 2001 would have that.

Looking at the Bears current locker-room situation, it is somewhat amazing to me that more of these infections have not crept up in the injury reports of the Bears. Hopefully the staff is keeping up with these issues. I certainly hope they are not relying on the University Janitorial staff to keep the place ship-shape in a infection resistant method, and have made it a real priority (I can say that - I used to work as a University janitor). Hopefully the new SAHPC will make this easier.

GO BEARS!!

Kevin Riley and other injuries

2008-11-05T11:43:00.000-08:00

After reading the Chronicle article on Kevin Riley, I would really not play him this week. If he was really out for 7 minutes, and can not remember what he did earlier in the same day, on Tuesday, then he will not be ready to play this week. In fact, i would consider resting him for the rest of the season. This is a very serious concussion. Last year, Matt Summers Gavin did not enroll in school until the Spring semester because of his sever concussion. I think that Tedford should really look out for Riley's best long term interests here.

That being said, Nate at the helm is a difficult situation. We will definitely need Mansion to get some reps, and to feel comfortable in the playing roll. He did get out there for one quarter this season, in the Washington State game, but to go out at SC would be something else. Behind Nate we have Sweeney and walk on Ryan Wertenberger. So we better hope nothin happens to Nate. Leaves you feeling regret about the Kyle Reed situation (who, by the way, is throwing at 66% completion rate for the San Jose Spartans).

When looking at the replays of the Riley hit last week, it wasn't that he just got his helmet hit. He actually was hit two times. He was going forward, and the defender came in with this helmet and hit him head-first. Then, there was a defender behind him who also hit him head first. So his head was punched backwards and then hit again forwards. In other words, he was punched in two different ways on that play. His brain must have been sloshing around inside his skull like crazy. I am sure that he has at least two concussions from the same play. They should really make sure that he is fully healed.

At least we are getting two defensive linemen back (Cody Jones and Rulon Davis). I hope that Davis can make a difference against SC. I have been pretty pleased with our defensive line play without these guys, but it seems like they are getting beat up. So it is nice to get some beef back.

Also, Norris Malele is back. I am not sure if this is a good thing - in my opinion, it seemed like the line played better this last week than it has the prior few games. It may be that Malele was injured and was not playing well, and now he is back in there. But Cheadle and Edwards did play well. So I would not be hesitant to pull Malele if needed. Edwards will continue in the Right Tackle slot this week since Teofilo is still out.

I think it is up to the Bears to set the tempo of this game - make the trojans wish they did not get up on Saturday morning. Come out hard, swinging, and shut the crowd up at the Coliseum. Take a few hard hits on Sanchez, and see what he can take. I think the toughest defense they have seen is Arizona, and they could only get 17 points. The critical thing is, they only gave up 10, and are averaging only 7 per game on the season. So the Bears need to win like we have all year long - Defense and special teams. If we can get 14 points from those aspects, we probably have a shot at winning. Otherwise, I think it is one more close one that gets away.

GO BEARS!!

Polls and such

2008-11-05T08:40:00.000-08:00

The Bears came out ranked in the first official BCS standings at 21, ranked 21 and 22 in the human polls, and 24 in the computer average. Going to USC this week, winning or losing, will advance us in the computer polls. The only question is, what happens in the Human polls.

If the Bears win out the season with 3 total losses, they will definitely be in the top 20. If they go 8-4, they will have to wait until after the bowl game to see if they get back into the rankings. 9-4 after teh bowl should get a to 25 ranking this year.

Right now, there are 4 teams BCS eligible. Alabama, Penn State, Utah and TCU. These are all teams that have won 9 games in Division 1 (Texas Tech is 9-0 but played one against a non div 1A team). They are also all ranked in the top 12. Utah and TCU have to play each other this week, so one of them will probably drop out. Oklahoma and Texas play Texas A&M and Baylor respectively, so they will both be moving into the BCS eligible ranks this week - and yes, I am assuming they win. Texas Tech and Oklahoma State play each other, so one will be moving into the BCS ranks, and one will be out. Boise State still needs two games to get into the BCS in order to get 9 div 1A wins. Florida, SC, Georgia, Missouri all need 2 more wins.

If the Bears win against a very tough USC team, they will be right in it. In fact, if they will, I predict that they will be in the top 10. I think we jump 15 spots in the computer polls, and 10 spots in the Human polls. That would bring us right into the Boise State range, currently number 10 in the BCS. From there, there are 4 weeks left until the end of the season. Anything can happen, If Maryland and Michigan State continue to win, the Bears will have a good shot at getting into the top 4 or 5.

For this team, this year, that would be a dream. But the nice thing is, the week before the SC game, that dream is still out there.

GO BEARS!!

Bears at USC

2008-11-02T20:05:00.001-08:00

According to Sagarin, the Bears should be a 23 point underdog. We'll see. The Bears have not been lighting it up on offense, and SC has been playing lights out on defense.

I think that the strength of both teams at this point is the defense, and that the offense is struggling for both (58 points at Washington does not mean much the week after the coach is fired - se 17 against Arizona the week before). I think SC offense is clearly performing better. The only issue is, can Cal put together a great offensive AND defensive performance against USC. I think we can if Riley comes back out, and plays tough. I think Nate coming off the bench has worked very well this year, so if we need him that will be good. I have confidence that the defense will be playing well.

This is a game that traditionally have come down to Cal not having all the pieces in November due to injury and lack of depth, and SC of course having depth at all positions. This year is no different, except that the back-ups for the Bears have been playing well. The offensive line this week was better than in the last few, with 4 season starters out. The defensive line rotation has been very good. The receivers are starting to play well.

The critical issue will be for the Bears to set the tone on defense, and pick on the miscues of the Trojans. Do that, and we may be playing in Pasadena on January 1. Otherwise, see you again in San Diego.

Go Bears!!

Oregon Recap

2008-11-02T09:42:00.000-08:00

That was a fantastic game yesterday. The Bears played well enough in crappy conditions to win the game, mainly on the back of the special teams and defense. The offense actually played well also, except for the turnovers. Which of course is like saying are good looking except for the 17 pound goiter on the side of your face.

The weather, to me anyway, made the game that much more enjoyable. That is what football should be about. We had a bunch of kids with us shivering with blue lips, but no whining. There were so many big plays and turnovers, that even though the offense for both teams was poor, it was entertaining.

The best thing from this game was that the defense played well, and got off the field. There were a heck of a lot of three and outs. If the defense plays like this against SC, we have a good shot at winning that game.

Also, the offensive line played OK. I had big concerns about the line play because of the injuries. Also, I think that the passing game was OK - the receivers dropped fewer balls than they have in prior games.

Kevin Riley getting knocked silly was scary. He was playing well in the first quarter and I think the game would have been a blowout if he could have stayed in. Nate came in and did a serviceable job, but threw a few that could have been picked, and may have if the weather was better. Of course, if the weather was better, the balls may not have sailed like they did. There were a lot of overthrows and under-throws by all three QBs playing yesterday.

I also think that the fans did a good job in keeping the noise level up. The crowd was probably closer to 50,000 than the 61,000 they said. But I think it was just as loud as any of the previous games this year. The ones who were there did a good job.

Javid Best two fumbles in years past would have sat him on the bench for the rest of the game. But JT needed him on the field. Here is what was interesting: the first fumble, he had his arm brace on. For the second fumble, it was not on. He must have made that as the excuse. But he was hit with a helmet in that elbow, and the ball came flying out. So, for the rest of the game, he had the brace on.

Riley's first drive interception that led to their first score was terrible. Beyond that, they did not have a lot of positive offense except for the three play rushing drive in the third quarter. After the game, Starkey was interviewing Follett, and he had two interesting comments. First, he said that they generally are not ready for the first drive since the scout team can not replicate the speed of the opponents, so it take the defense generally the first drive to get used to the game. Second, he said that after they came out in the second half, Oregon made some adjustments, and went to the option more, which was effective. But after the TD drive, the Bears changed their keys from the guards to the tackles, and were able to stop the option at that level. In other words, the guards were playing misdirection but the tackles were showing the true play direction.

As regards to the first comments, it seems to me that SC does it better. They go full speed at least one day per week first team offense vs defense. That gives them game day situations which help them to play a high level all four quarters. I think that they have depth to do that, but so do we at this point in our evolution.

Secondly, I think not only having the 3-4, but having Gregory on the sideline for the games this year is better for the defense. He is showing them on the side what to do, and adjustments are getting made faster. I think that is a big deal. Even two weeks ago, at Arizona, the defense made adjustments quicker in the third quarter (granted, 28 points were scored and by then it was too late). The defense played well in the 4th at Arizona.

In any event, that was a heck of a game. And now, for the 7th year in a row, the Bears are Bowl Eligible.

GO BEARS!!

Game of the Century of the Week

2008-11-01T22:35:00.000-07:00

After the big win today for the Bears - which I will post on later - the USC game is looming. But first, the rankings. I think the Bears will climb into the top 21 of the rankings (AP, BCS, etc) based on the victory today. Here is what there is left in the college football landscape in the BCS conferences:

There are 3 undefeated teams
5 teams with 1 loss
15 teams with 2 losses (including the Bears)
15 teams with 3 losses

Next weekend's games are:
1 game 0 vs 1 loss teams
1 game 0 vs 2 loss teams
1 game 1 vs 2 loss teams
1 game 1 vs 3 loss teams
3 games 2 vs 2 loss teams
3 games 2 vs 3 loss teams
1 game 3 vs 3 loss teams

so after next weekend if the lower loss teams wins all games.
3       0 loss teams
4       1 loss teams
11     2 loss teams
15     3 loss teams.

In other words, if people rank Cal as the worst 2 loss team, we will ranked #20. They have to rank a three loss team ahead of us to keep us out of the top 20 this week. I assume that we will be ranked 21 or higher. I have to think higher.

Also, if we lose next week to USC, I am not sure that we drop all that much. I think by the end of the season, there will be a three loss team in the top 12. Someone like, say, Missouri. Or Oklahoma, or Oklahoma State. LSU (who, thankfully will be coming up on their 4th loss this season next week).

Now, you have to throw in there TCU, Boise, BYU, Utah and Ball State. But BYU and Utah and TCU will knock each other out, or at least a few of them out.

The Pac 10 is interesting. Here are what I think are some of the most possible scenarios for the Bears:

1) Cal wins out and goes to the Rose bowl.

2) Cal beats USC and loses to Oregon State. Oregon State goes to the Rose Bowl.

3) USC wins out. Oregon State wins out. Oregon State goes to the Rose Bowl.

4) Cal beats Oregon State and loses to USC. USC goes to the Rose Bowl.

5) Cal Beats USC but loses to Oregon State, who loses to Oregon. There is a 4 way tie for first place in the pac 10. USC or Oregon goes to the Rose Bowl, because Cal's other loss was to Arizona, who is lower than SC loss to Cal and Oregon State, or Oregon State's loss to Stanfurd. Oregon and SC would have only lost first place teams. The rose bowl tie-breaker there is that the higher BCS rates team would go, and that would be USC most likely.

There are lots of other combinations - but the only reasonable way that Cal gets to the Rose Bowl is if we win out - we would keep our destiny in our hands. Cal and Oregon State have the only tracks in the Pac 10 for that to happen.

The other thing that could possibly happen is that the Bears lose to SC, and then win out. It is a slim possibility, but if Cal could get into the top 14, and if there are train wrecks all over college football, and SC goes to the NCG, then the Bears would have a shot at getting to the Rose Bowl. Looking at the numbers of BCS conference teams, there will be a bunch with three or more losses by the end of the year, and only probably about 8 or 9 with two or less losses. So there is a chance in this scenario.

GO BEARS!!.

Capitulation

2008-10-31T17:01:00.000-07:00

I am going to write this one last note on the Riley vs Longshore issue. I think JT has capitulated, and I do not think Nate will be seeing the field again (unless there is an injury, or in a huge blowout).

Based on the comments from JT at the press conference, where he backtracked and said that the offense was actually doing well, that there were some breakdowns on each play that made it less effective, but that in general it was coming along (paraphrasing). That being said, I think that Riley is going to start. The question that I have is, does this mean that JT thinks Kevin is now finally better than Nate, or does it mean that JT has given up on this season and is playing for the future.

Wilner had a column in the Mercury News urging JT to play Riley, because essentially, since Arizona in 2006, Longshore has not played well in Pac 10 games. 19 interceptions, 20 TDs, 50% passing. That is not good. Nate has done a good job out of conference, and he did a good job last year in the first few games, but it just has not been his time.

Not that Riley had done a heck of a lot better, but the biggest thing for the Bears this year has been turnovers, and that is Nate's biggest downfall. I would say Riley's biggest downfall is holding on to the ball too long, and taking the sack. That can be just as bad as a turnover (see, Oregon State, last play of the game, 2007). But generally it is not.

So, as justification I think Jeff Tedford has agreed that the interceptions are too much, and Kevin is now the guy. The Longshore interception against Arizona sunk the ship.

i hope that this is the case, but I also hope that Riley still has the fire lit under him. I am not going to call any NCAA player lazy, but I do think he needs to work harder at understanding the offense, at getting the other players off to a fast start, and in general commanding the team. He also needs to work on accuracy, as least, as far as his game performance this year has shown.

Aaron Rogers was a great QB for the Bears. We need that level of QB to perform at the level that a Tedford team can. If we do not, the whole thing bogs down. In his best days, Longshore was 90% of Rogers. That was good enough for second in the Pac 10. We need Riley to get to that level and be consistent, and that will only come with a tremendous amount of hard work for him.

(Speaking of Rogers -- he just signed a $65 million deal with Greenbay until 2014. Not too bad. I wonder what Alex Smith's next deal will be?)

Bears take on the Ducks

2008-10-31T09:22:00.000-07:00

Going into tomorrow's game, it seems like it should be a close one. Sagarin has the Bears and Ducks ranked pretty close in his predictor model, with the Bears a 4 point favorite at home.

Here is the deal - so far this season, the Ducks have looked good. But they have played two good teams and lost both convincingly. they have dominated Washington, Washington State, Arizona State and barely got by UCLA. They went to two overtimes with a BAD purdue team, and beat Utah State handily. They were crushed by USC. The best game they have played was to lose to Boise State at home 37-32, which was a very close game. Oregon went through a number of different QBs in that game.

At the beginning of the year, the Ducks were planning on starting Nick Costa, who was injured before the season. Justing Roper was the second string guy and he started the first three games, getting knocked out at Boise State. Nick Masoli came in, and has done a good job. Masoli is more of an option QB, a la Tim Tebow. He ran for 170 yards against UCLA, for example. The Ducks have a fairly poor passing attack, but are in the top 5 in rushing. They run a spread option attack, particularly effective when Masoli is in there.

Roper has come back from his injury, and played the last part of the ASU game. It is not clear who will be starting tomorrow for the Ducks, but Masoli is a more mobile QB than Roper. Roper is a more effective passer.

I am not sure if the weather is going to be a factor in who starts for the Ducks, but it is clear it will be a factor in the game. The Bears have not really played in the pouring rain this year, so it will be interesting to see who plays for us. My guess is that we dust off the option attack, have KR start the game and see how that goes. If we can spread the field with the option and keep the ducks at home, I think we can run on them. They have a good defense. I think our defense is going to do OK against their spread offense - we have had a lot of experience against it, even this year. I think the 3-4 is more effective against the spread. But we need to play our positions, not over-pursue and slip on the turf. But Oregon will score. I give them 31.

Offensively, we need to put up 40 to be safe. And that will be difficult. The ducks have a good pass rush - lots of sacks. Our offensive line is injured, and has not played that well. That being said, we are going to have to roll out and make some plays on the run. That is why I think this is a KR game tomorrow.

All that being said, if we can not beat a team starting it's third string guy, who is averaging 103 yards in the air, then we are going to have a long day. We should beat these guys.

I hope the Bear faithful are out in force tomorrow. It will be poor weather - if there are 65,000 fans screaming at the Ducks, it will be pretty impressive. We need to get out and support the Bears. The good news is that most of the soccer games will be cancelled so perhaps people will get there on time.

GO BEARS!!

National View of the Bears

2008-10-30T14:42:00.000-07:00

It is interesting reading a bunch of different articles this week in national publications, all of which have the same sort of theme - hey - what the heck are the Bears doing on top of the Pac 10? Wait - they control their destiny? Hey - maybe the Pac 10 does not suck, since Ohio State doesn't suck, and Maryland and Virginia actually are some of the better ACC teams, and even the crappy UCLA beat Tennessee.

And, what is this = the SEC is the 4th best conference by Sagarin, and the 6th best by RPI.

Anyway, we are ranked. We all know it all comes down to November. This is the time of year where we have not traditionally been strong. We need to finish strong this year. I am hoping that our slow start will translate into a fast finish.

GO BEARS!!

Hoops Rankings

2008-10-30T14:34:00.001-07:00

The initial hoops ranking are out, with UCLA leading the Pac 10 at number 4 in the coaches poll. 7 pac 10 teams are getting votes, including 3 in teh top 25 - UCLA, Arizona State (15) and USC (21). The others receiving votes are Arizona, Oregon State, Washington and Washington State.

Arizona will be interesting this year, with Lute Olsen retiring after being diagnosed with a stroke that was impacting his cognitive skills. That is a tough way to go for a guy who likes to be in charge. And it does lead one to wonder how long ago the stroke was, and whether that impacted the Wildcats over the course of the last year. It was not clear when the stroke occurred.

Our Bears are in for a tough season, I believe. The initial euphoria of getting Montgomery may be wearing off as the recruiting season is evolving. We are not doing well, at least, I do not think so. We have been eliminated for a number of the prospects that we were going after. We do not have a strong presence down low. So, this will be a test of Monty's coaching. If he does well with this team this year, I think he will have earned every penny. And that can translate into top-notch recruiting, as we have seen with the football team. The only difference is, I think Tedford likes to recruit, and Monty, not so much.

GO BEARS!!

Bruin in Ruins

2008-10-26T13:27:00.000-07:00

The Bears defense did a great job of stopping a pretty poor Bruin offense, allowing only one offensive touchdown all game, and holding them to 256 yards for the day, including 4 interceptions.

The killer part of the game was once again the poor play of the offense, including the QB, Kevin Riley. Tedford chose to go with Riley after a week of practice where it was said he was coming on strong, similar to the end of fall camp. So JT made the same decision this week that he did then - he started him. And with the same result - poor offensive performance for the first three quarters (one offensive touchdown, one yard total in the third quarter, after an anemic 109 yards in the first half).

But we erupted in the 4th quarter, ad scored 24 points. Just like Maryland. The only difference is, we played a really crappy team, and they could not score at all.

This is not the way to win football games. Oregon is not going to wait around for us to erupt in the 4th quarter. This is not solely on Kevin Riley - the offensive line was porous. The receivers continued to drop balls. The running backs were not getting it done early (10 runs for 20 yards in the first quarter).

But it sure is nice to beat those guys big. The defense played great, including Chris Conte, who I was beginning to be concerned with, as well as Mike Mohammed.

I am optimistic about our defense. It did appear that we were vulnerable to some big plays in the secondary, but we made some big plays. The biggest idiocy of the game was when UCLA went for the fake punt with 24 yards to go. What was he thinking. They made a great play, and gained 23 yards. Oh well. But all that being said, it was a good game for the Bears, and one that we really needed.

XXXXX

I was wrong about the game last week. I said the Bears dropped 10 passes in the Arizona Desert. It was 12.

That was a game that an experienced team would have won, and we gave away in all sorts of ways. And how does that back to bite us in the ass? Well, the Bears would be ranked in the top 12 this week if we had beaten Arizona, and in place to make a BCS bowl game even if we had lost to USC. That clearly is not the case anymore. It is the case that Cal has the conference in our hands. If we win out, we do go to the Rose Bowl. Cal and SC are the only teams in conference that can make that claim. Everyone else needs help from someone else. So we still are playing for something.

And, yes, once again, we are ranked #25 in the Harris Poll, which is the poll that took the AP polls place in the BCS standing.

The last few times we were ranked, we tanked. Let's get over that hump this weekend with the Ducks.

GO BEARS!!

Cal / UCLA

2008-10-24T19:32:00.000-07:00

The Bears and the baby bears square off tomorrow, with Cal coming off a devastating loss, and the Bruins coming off a victory at home against the Furd. The news for the Bruins - they have not beaten a team with a winning record. The Bears have a winning record. They also have only had two road games, and five home games. So they have lost badly on the road - 0-59 to BYU and 31-24 to Oregon.

They have had a ton of injuries, have given up over 20 to all opponents except for Washington State (who they beat 28-3) and have basically not done well since the victory over Tennessee to start the season (who is now 3-4 with victories over UAB, Northern Illinois and Mississippi State).

In other words, the Skippy- Chow-Walker experiment has not gone according to plan.

I love it, frankly. And I have every reason to believe that the Bears will take advantage of these guys no matter who is at the QB spot tomorrow.

There are a lot of people moaning and groaning over the Bears loss last week. And it was a brutal loss. But that being said, it did not show that the Bears were not a good team. What it did show was that we were a young team, rebuilding, and we will be good next year. And we will be good enough at home this year to make the grade against the inferior opponents that we have coming over the next few weeks, including UCLA, Oregon, Stanfurd and Washington.

I will not predict an SC victory and the road to the Pac 10 championship. But I do believe, as do most of the readers of this site, that the Bears will go 8-4 or better, and get to a decent bowl game. We are a top 30 team, perhaps a top 20 team this year (yes, 9-4 will get us there).

In any event, the Bears should win tomorrow. I can't wait to BEAT THE BRUINS!!!

GO BEARS!!

Day in Review

2008-10-19T00:32:00.000-07:00

It will be interesting to see what happens to the Bears in the polls: 9 of the teams from the 10-25 slots lost today (only two won). I think that is unprecedented, and speaks to the parity in college football.

Of the teams remaining, 5 are undefeated, 14 have 1 loss, and 15 have two losses. That is a total of 34 teams with two losses or less. Last year at this time, there were 39 teams with two losses or less. The year before, there were over 40.

i think the Bears continue to get some love, and will not fall out of the rankings all together, now that Maryland and others have won. Both of Cal's losses have been on the road to 5-2 teams. Not as bad as you would think, with all of the gnashing of teeth around here.

If only we had won...

Arizona Recap

2008-10-18T23:34:00.001-07:00

The Bears lost another one in Arizona on the grass, and the sky is falling...

On the message boards and in the comments, it is clear that people are ready to burn the team in effigy.

Let's face it - we lost to a better team tonight. And here is why - they are faster, they have experience at the skill positions that count (QB, receiver) and they ran a second year spread offense which we always have trouble with defensively. That being said, we scored 10 more points on their defense than they have allowed this year on average. And that is with our incredible pass-dropping receivers.

Here is the real deal - our players are not executing. And it is driving the fans crazy. They are not used to seeing receivers drop balls, and the offensive line fall down on the job. And maybe that is because this is the youngest team that JT has had at Cal. But expectations have been built to a boiling point. So let's look at it.

Freshman playing now:

Punter, Kicker, Receivers, defensive ends.

Sophomores playing now:

Running backs, offensive linemen, defensive linemen, back-up QB (who plays a lot anyway), Cornerbacks, safeties, nickelback.

Seniors playing now:

Center, Linebackers, Starting QB.

Let's face it - this is a young team. The line has fallen apart because the young guys are not yet ready. Imagine if Mack had not stayed around. The defense is young, The skill players, except for Nate, are young. Or else starting at receiver for the first time in five years, because never before could they break into the first team.

We had to burn a true freshman's redshirt tonight at defensive end because everyone else was injured?

What did you expect?

The good news is, as we now know, this is not going to be a team that is going to dominate the Pac 10. But it is going to be a team that wins at least four more games, and then gets to a bowl for a possible 9 or 10 win season. It is a team that will get better each week. This week, we played better than we did at Arizona State. Arizona was a much better team, and we scored three more pints, put up tons more yards, and made more dramatic plays on the road in the Pac 10. If this game is at Cal, we win.

I believe that we will win out at home. We have two more road games - at USC (loss) and at Oregon State (50-50). This is a team that plays better at home in general, and we are getting better each week. About half of those dropped passes would have been caught at home. That would have been a big difference.

As for the commentators on the coaches and Nate - get real. Tedford is not catching the passes. Longshore is not the devil. He looked better than Riley did tonight, even with the Pick 6. When KR came in, he was all over the place. Not that Nate played well - I was pulling for JT to put Riley in the series before he did. But I was really disappointed with the results. For example, in taking shots into the end zone, you need to throw into the end zone, not 5 yards beyond. You need to not take a sack on the last play of the game - reminiscent of the Oregon State game last year. You do not need to scramble each time you get the ball because it takes you sooo long to make the read. It was painful to watch because I think he will be the future for the next two years and he has not gotten it yet. I am not really sure what happened to the guy who played in the Air Force game last year, but he has not seen the field this year.

In any event, I do not believe that Nate has a confidence issue, even when bounced out of the game. I believe that when the tapes are parsed by JT, he will see that there were a number catches that should have been made. There were at least 10 drops in this game, for both QBs. So I expect the QB battle to continue.

Good news from the game: Statistically, we played about even with AU. Two turnovers each, but we did not capitalize on ours like they did (another patented Nate Pick 6 helps with that). Also, we called a game where we went downfield a lot, in comparison to our other games. I think that was good. Our play calling was better. Our defensive line was a bit weak, but we were down on players there. But we still had decent pressure on Tuitama, with two sacks and a bunch of hurries. We held them short a number of times. Let's give them credit - they played well when they had to. Most of their points came in bunches - 28 points in the second half in 11 minutes. 14 points in the first half in 88 seconds. Our inexperienced defensive line took too long after the half to make the adjustments and that caused the game to go to them in the second half. Nate and the offensive boys did not do that - the defensive front did. And that goes to the LBs as well, who did not have a good game - except for WW, who was unblocked quite a bit and took advantage of that for some big plays.

I think we will be fine. This is the culmination of Stoopid's 6 year plan, and he has a decent team, and they will probably make a bowl game. I think they are better than you would think. I don't think that they will win the Pac 10, however. If Cal wins out, we still win. So all is not lost. But it is a difficult road from here. I would be very happy at this point with a Holiday Bowl bid. I like San Diego.

GO BEARS!!

Game tomorrow

2008-10-17T21:46:00.000-07:00

The Bears take on the Wildcats in Tuscon, and the season rides on the outcome.

This is probably the biggest away game this year, including the USC game.

First of all, we are expected to win. To lose is another in the line of failed Bear games against inferior opponents on the road.

Second, a loss would put us back in the pack of the Pac 10 race - a win keeps us all alone in first place, and the only team to really control it's own destiny (except Stanfurd - but they suck).

Third, we already have a road loss this year with an inferior opponent. So we would not be given a gimme. That loss was out of conference, so it is OK - sort of - to lose the Maryland game. This one counts.

Fourth, we are expected to lose to USC down there. Losing there, and coming in at 10-2 would be a very good season for the Bears. Losing at Arizona and coming in at 10-2 would not be such a good season, because USC obviously must suck if we beat them after losing to Arizona.

So for all those reasons, it is important that we win this game.

And then there is the revenge factor - they cost us the Rose Bowl two years ago.

So, yes, this is the biggest game of the year so far.

...

Cal has a few players injured, the most critical being the Freshman kicker, Seawright, will not be making the trip Arizona. I think he actually was from Arizona, so he must be pissed about that. Coming in, starting as a freshman kicker, and not making the trip to your home territory must suck.

He is going to be replaced by the walk-on freshman kicker, Giorgio Teveccio, who will be kicking field goals and extra point for the first time.

Guys - this could be a disaster. I hope that Tedford bring Jordan Kay with him, just in case. This could be the game losing ingredient. On the other hand, it could lead to JT going for two on every touchdown and forth down in enemy territory. I do not think we are going to be trying any 50 yard field goals to win the game.

Michael Calvin is also lost for the season, but he has not actually been a big contributor on the offense. I hope that Tucker can step up, as well a Boateng. We need some big games from our receivers. At least Boateng has some experience on a traveling team going back to the Florida days. We need that this week.

Also, just in case you did not know, Nate Longshore will be starting and most likely playing the entire game, unless Riley is injured. It looks like the book is closing on the Riley era for 2008, unless Nate screws up or gets injured. I hope that JT is not as forgiving this year as last, but I also believe that Nate does give us the best chance to win right now. He knows the offense better, can adjust better to the defense, and has experience playing against these guys. He lost one (2006) and beat the crap out of them last year (scored 45 points).

Arizona has a decent offense, with Willie T, who is a pretty good QB. But he can be disrupted. If the defense can get to him early, we hold them to low 20's. If we do not get to them that well, then we need to score over 35 to win. I think we can - we can just run it up the middle as they do not have a good defensive line. But we need to control the ball, move it and keep the wildcat offense off the field.

As far as it goes, the weather in Tucson is going to be similar to what we have had in the Bay Area - hot and dry, and cooling nicely in the evening. It is a fairly late game, so it should not be too hot at game time. Perfect football weather. I think our team plays better in the evenings, on TV.

This game will be a true test of the Bears this season. If we can dominate them, I believe that we have a strong chance to go all the way. They are not a great team, but they are decent, and they will probably go bowling this year. If we can go there and beat them, on the road in the Pac 10, then we will have done something. If not, wait for two more years for our Rose Bowl.

GO BEARS!!

BYU vs TCU

2008-10-16T20:38:00.001-07:00

Great game for the Christians.

Kinda weird - the Christians against the mormons. State schools are better. No weird overtones of one religion being better than the other, how the other guys are more about family than the sport, etc. This is a football game, not a sermon.

Anyway, it is nice to see the higher ranked undefeated non-bcs team lose since that gives a better change for the other non-bes teams to not qualify.

I think that TCU and Utah will both lose. I am hopeful that Boise does, although I think Boise is the much better team out of the three of them. Ball State and Toledo have no chance.

Thinking about BYU - they have not really done anything this year to deserve the high praise they have. They beat two of the worst three pac 10 teams - UCLA and Washington. Whoop-dee-do. They should have lost to Washington, but the Pac 10 refs got in the way. In any event, it was a two point game.

My impression is that TCU has been the better team. At least they beat Stanfurd, which is a middle of the road pac 10 team on a down year for the Pac 10.

Boise beat Oregon well. They have beaten other teams on the road. I have a feeling they will win out. They are my bet to make the BCS for the non-BCS schools.

This weekend has a plethora of big change games for the rankings. First, Texas and Missouri. I take Missouri. Then, Oklahoma and Kansas. Wouldn't a Kansas win be nice. Vanderbilt and Georgia. Ohio State and Michigan State. So that is four guaranteed losses below Cal in the rankings. Then, there are the possible losses - Maryland at Wake. VA Tech and Boston College. Pittsburg and Navy. All of these are other good games where the victory is in doubt. I predict at least 6 top 25 teams lose this week. Hopefully, the Bears will not be one of them. I do not think they will be.

Here is what I think would be best for the Bears:

Cal over Arizona...Duh
Michigan State wins
Vanderbilt wins over Georgia (because they will definitely lose before the year is out)
Kansas over Oklahoma
Missouri over Texas
Maryland over Wake
Navy over Pitt
Boston College over Va Tech

Anything close to this scenario - the operative one being the first one - and the Bears are in the top 18.

Also, our computer numbers will increase as we accumulate more victories - just mathematically. We do not have as many victories as other teams, so we do not have as high a computer ranking. As we catch up with other teams as they take their Byes, we will increase our computer rankings.

So, we are in good shape. I am hoping for a weekend of carnage across the football landscape, with our football Bears the shining light of goodness.

GO BEARS!!

Bye Week

2008-10-15T23:40:00.000-07:00

The biggest thing that happened this bye week was the Bears are now in first place in the Pac 10. Also, my cousin got married, so I was away for a bit. I appreciate that he did it on a bye weekend, but I did miss a bunch of good college football. What is it with people getting married on a Saturday in the Fall.

These guys live in New Jersey. For all the east coast bias, there is not a lot of college football love in the NY / NJ / CT area. They are mostly pro-sports towns. You go to the airport in LA, and you get a bunch of USC and UCLA crap. Same at Oakland, and even SF - Stanfurd and Cal stuff. Anyplace in Tennessee is UT wear. But no Rutgers gear in Newark. It is really just a vast wasteland of NFL loving idiots. Oh well.

Three of the top 5 lost. That is pretty cool. This season is shaping up just like last year in terms of the number 1 and 2 losing. In fact, there are more teams with one loss than at the same time last year.

If the Bears currently were undefeated, we would be in the top 10, and probably the top 7. Setting us up for a nice fall in the Arizona desert. Fortunately for us, we already know we are fallible, so we will go into this seeking revenge for our loss two years ago. I think that there are enough on the team who remember that game.

There is a lot of talk about the Bears losing on grass surfaces. I do have to say that we did look slow two years ago, playing these guys down there (except for DeSean, who actually I think had the best game of his Cal career, and tried to single handedly carry the Cal team on his shoulders).

i think the biggest issue is when Cal plays on grass in a non-evening event, we are not so good. So we need to try to get our games scheduled later in the day - just like we are this weekend. Let's face it - everyone runs faster at night. I think the Bears play better at night. Just something I believe. Can't quantify it. But I do think it is true (look at all those ABC 5 PM games we keep winning).

The good news is also that we are finally in all the polls, and are ranked right now about 24th in the BCS. WE are a bit lower in the computer polls because we do not have as many games won as a bunch of other teams - we have had two byes. So as we increase our wins, our computer ranking will drop, and we will be dropping down. So right now, we are about 24 in the computers, and 22 and 24 in the other polls that make up the BCS.

We also made a big jump in the AP poll to number 25. We jumped over four teams to make the top 25 for the first time in four weeks.

Our OOC opponents have a slate of games this weekend that could help the Bears quite a bit. First of all, Colorado State plays Utah. Utah needs to be taken out. I think Colorado State could do it. They held TCU to 13 points. They need to score a bit more than 7 to win, but I think their team is getting better. Utah should have lost to OSU, and I do not think they are so good they will go through the Mountain West undefeated.

Michigan State needs to take out Ohio State. I am hoping for Michigan State to win out, and take the Big 10 title. That would be a tough road for them, but they have a shot. But to just put another loss on Ohio State would be nice to get them out of the title picture.

Then, Maryland plays Wake Forrest. If Maryland could take them out, the Bears will move up one or two spots.

What we need to hope for to get any sort of possibility of moving up to the top 2 slots (yes, I am still talking National Championship - why not?) we need the other BCS conferences to beat up on one another. I think that USC looks weak this year - weaker than they have. This could be a year where the Bears get though a conference that is not strong and make it to the championship game.

Frankly, I think we will be undefeated at home this year. I am most concerned about this weeks game at Arizona, and the USC game. Both of these games are winnable. If we do win this weekend, and come back and win out to USC, I think we beat those guys down there, and get us over the hump with them. Just a feeling.

If that does happen, I have grave concerns about the last three games. At Oregon State, and then Stanfurd and Washington at home. I have to believe that would have the biggest crowds ever at those home games, but playing Oregon State late up there could be tough.

In any event, it is still a ways to go but I the only game where we will not be favored is the USC game, if we continue to win.

GO BEARS!!

Strength of Pac 10 vs other conference

2008-10-07T20:27:00.000-07:00

It is interesting. The Pac 10 is the strongest conference this year, if you use RPI as the measure of conference strength.

That is, if you use what the NCAA uses to measure the relative strength of basketball conferences, the Pac 10 would be the strongest conference this year.

"How can that be? The Pac 10 sucks!" you say. Well, maybe not.

Let's look at this objectively. What did we do as a conference that made us suck? We lost to non BCS teams. Of course, almost all of those non BCS teams are in the top 25 this year. That is, two losses against BYU, one against TCU, one against Utah, one against Boise, and one against Fresno State. All of those schools, while not in top conferences, have been in the top 25, and are now in the top 30 or so.

Of course, we also lost to Penn State, Oklahoma and Georgia (top 10 team), Maryland, New Mexico and UNLV. Notre Dame as well, but I think we are going to even that out.

Now, how bad are these loses? Only three - Maryland, UNLV and New Mexico - could be considered bad. Maryland is somewhat erratic, and is 4-2, sniffing at the top 25 last week, until it's embarrassing loss to Virginia.

What are the Pac 10 wins? Well, Cal beat top 15 Michigan State. USC demolished whoever they played, including top 15 Ohio State. Oregon beat Purdue. The SEC decided not to play us this year - smart (well, except for the domination that UCLA put on Tenn). They feasted on Cupcakes and got fat over those. Same with the Big 12. They are ranked considerably further down the list. In fact, here is the conference strength by RPI:

1) Pac 10
2) Big 10
3) Big 12
4) ACC
5) Big East
6) SEC
7) Mtn West
8) Conf USA
9) WAC
10) MAC
11) Sun Belt

The RPI measures your strength of schedule by your wins, your opponent's wins, and your opponent's opponent's wins. So it is a fairly reliable indicator of your strength against your schedule.

It rewards conferences which play tougher schedules, like the Pac 10. In that scenario, it is a much more honest assessment of your capabilities vs a poll, which is what the BCS is based on.

Why does the Pac 10 look so good in the RPI version? It is because our weaker teams lost to some good teams. UCLA, Washington both lost to BYU (Washington should have won). Washington got taken to the woodshed by Oklahoma. Arizona State, which is turning out not to be so good, lost to Georgia. Oregon State lost to Penn State and Utah - a game they should have won.

Both Cal and Oregon lost to teams that they should have beaten - Oregon to Boise and Cal to Maryland. And USC lost to Oregon State, a team they should have beaten. But those are not terrible losses - they are the normal bumps and bruises of the 12 week playoff that is college football.

The Pac 10 is down this year, but not like everyone thinks. Come the bowl season, i believe that the rest of the country will see what it is all about. I mean - lets face it - we beat 75% of the Big 10 teams that we played. We beat 100% of the SEC teams we played.

Oh well. I guess all we have to do is win the rest of the way.

GO BEARS!!

Rankings

2008-10-06T10:36:00.000-07:00

Just one year ago, we were ranked number 2 in the country, and 5 - 0. Then we lost in October, and that was that.

Now, we lost one game on the road to a bi-polar Maryland team, and we are barely sniffing the ranking chart. The coaches have us at number 25, the Harris people have us at 26, and the AP we are still on Mars.

The good news is this: Michigan State and Northwestern play this week. One of those two will lose, and more space opens up. I hope Michigan State wins out.

Oklahoma State still has to play Missouri, Texas, Texas Tech and Oklahoma. So do all of those other team have to play each other. So there are some losses to come.

Wake Forrest goes to Clemson and then Maryland.

Kansas has the same road as OK State. Starting at Colorado this week.

Here is what kills me: Ball State. Top 25. Get real. The toughest team they played and will play is Navy. These guys are going to ride a top 25 spot all year long, based on the worst strength of schedule. It does matter that you play crap teams.

It was nice to see Fresno State lose. Now they can beat Boise, and drop them out of the top 25 - and they won't improve much in the process.

Utah is ranked #9 in the current BCS standings. They are currently ranked #4 in the computers. That means they will definitely be a top 8 team if they win out. Likewise, BYU, if they beat the Utes, will be a top 10 team - maybe even top 2.

It is interesting to note that Boise, BYU and Utah all gain their reputation by beating middle of the road or crappy Pac 10 teams, but the Pac 10 gets no recognition for being decent enough to get them that recognition. I have to give credit to Utah - they did schedule Michigan and Oregon State. Both could have been loses for them, but they won both - squeekers both. But Michigan and Oregon State are not as good as they have been.

Also, similarly BYU played Washington and UCLA out of conference - two of the worst Pac 10 teams, who in prior years could have been tough.

It is like the Notre Dame athletic director has been scheduling these guys - picking the name just when you know they will be down.

There are a host of ACC teams (North Carolina, Georgia Tech, Wake Forrest) who will beat each other up. There is only one Big East team in the top 25, and only USC of the Pac 10, and Cal knocking on the door.

In other words, it looks like Cal has a good shot to gain about 10 to 12 spots over the next few weeks in teh BCS from our current 26 position if we keep our nose clean. That means beating BYE, which I generally think we can do. Also, going to Arizona and then defending our Honor at home against UCLA. If we do that, we will be top 15. Here is who I think we will be passing up in the BCS standings:

North Carolina
Georgia Tech
Ball State
Kansas
Wake Forrest
Oklahoma State
South Florida
Northwestern
Vanderbilt
Texas (they play Oklahoma and Missouri coming up)
Florida (loss to LSU and Georgia coming up)

Later in the year, Texas Tech plays Texas and Oklahoma. I think they drop there.

I think Missouri and Oklahoma are the best of the Big 12, and will remain top 10. I think LSU and Alabama the same for the SEC. Either USC or Cal will be there for the Pac 10. If Virginia Tech wins out, they will be there for the ACC. South Florida for the Big East, and Penn State for the Big 10. I think Ohio State loses again, to Penn State. The remaining top 10 at the end of the year will be BYU and Utah (until that final game) and maybe Boise State. Another SEC or Big 12 team could sneak in.

In other words, the Big 12 and the SEC this year are going to do what the Pac 10 has done over the past 5 years - eat each other up. So do not worry - a 2 loss Cal team will most likely be a top 14 team. A one loss Cal team will be top 5.

GO BEARS!!

ASU Issues

2008-10-06T10:21:00.000-07:00

The Bears came out with a nice win over ASU, a mid-ranked Pac 10 team. I think that the Sun Devils will win a few more, probably be bowl eligible, and have a nice 7 or 8 win season.

The Bears, in order to do better than that, need to get the QB thing down.

There is a lot of angst on the message boards - Kevin or Nate, Nate got lucky, it was Cignetti, etc. The bottom line is that Nate did a better job than KR did in the first half this season, but the second half was terrible offensive football. You need to get a first down in the fourth quarter.

The Defense and special teams - especially Anger - did a great job on Saturday. But Cal should have had another 14 points minimum in the second half to ice that game. 41 to 14 would have been appropriate, considering how much better we were than those guys.

Generally, sitting on a lead for the Bears is a disaster. We got lucky. If we had done that at MSU, we would have lost.

So the question is, is it Nate, is it Kevin or is it Frank Cignetti and JT? I have to put this one on the coaches. Nate played well in the first half. So what do we do second half? We go three and out running. Then we try three and out passing, then back to running. What gives? Where is the offensive creativity to get the team rolling. They can't have been happy about that - it does not make the offensive line feel good when you are three and out all day long.

I think that Tedford should have played Kevin in the second half, after two series with Nate. i was continually surprised to see Nate going back out there. We had enough lead, and enough power to win this game no matter. I think the QB competition should still be open. If Nate misses three passes in a row, then put in Riley. My god, these kids are tough kids. Let them battle it out. It is not like they are freshmen. They have been around long enough to know that performance dictates playing time.

Neither is a bad QB. It is clear this year why JT did not play Kevin Riley last year - he clearly was not ready for a prime time engagement. But he is getting there, and we need for him to continue to be involved.

I do think that both can and should play at Arizona. While they look good, they may well be paper tigers - we will see this week at Stanfurd, when AZ plays at the farm. Start Nate, then bring in Kevin.

GO BEARS!!

BCS Implications from Thursday night

2008-10-02T22:35:00.000-07:00

Well, I think it is clear that Utah and BYU SHOULD be undefeated going into their final game of the season, playing for BCS eligibility. The question is, would both get in no matter what.

With South Florida going down this evening, it seems like it would be difficult for a Big East team to be in the top 16 of the BCS standing when they come out at the end of the year. Connecticut? I don't think so. West Virginia? Come on. South Florida what the last best hope. And they failed. So now, we have a situation where a non-BCS team could be eligible for the BCS by making the top 16 in the BCS standings. They do not have to be top 14.

I could see where two top 10 Mountain West teams make the BCS top 5 going into the last weekend. BYU and Utah play, with BYU winning in a close one. Does Utah drop all the way out?

Let=s go even further. Say all of the SEC and Big 12 teams have two losses. That these are the only teams ranked that highly are without losses. It would be difficult to drop one of them out.

At the end of the day, only one is required to be taken. But it is a virtual certainty that there will be one non-BCS team playing for the big marbles at the end of the year. The WAC also has two strong competitors in this race - Fresno State and Boise. One of them will lose to the other, but one will probably come out unscathed in WAC play.

Anyway, something else to think about as the season progresses.

GO BEARS!!

Utah and OSU

2008-10-02T21:46:00.000-07:00

Oregon State played a great game this evening against the 15th ranked Utah Utes. The Beavers should have won, except for some key mistakes in the coaching game, and some questionable referee calls.

But the bottom line is that the Beavers are for real this year, easily coulda shoulda woulda against Utah, and we are going to have a tough time with them when we go to see them in Corvallis.

I feel bad, after making my love for Mike Riley known just three or four posts ago for bagging on him with his crappy calls to go for two on successive scores in the second and third quarter. Missing three extra points in this game was the difference in the final score.

Frankly, so was the play calling with two minutes left, and the Beavers are running the ball, which they did not do well all evening. They should have continued to pass down the field for the touchdown. Instead, they gave a crappy punt and Utah kicks the field goal.

This is a great example of how crappy special teams can ruing your life. Instead of rocketing into the top 25 with wins over USC and Utah, they are now 2-3 and will have to earn respect by winning something like 6 of the next 7 to get into the rankings (where they probably should be).

Lessons to be learned - never take your foot off the gas, and focus on special teams.

GO BEARS!!

Bears at ASU

2008-10-02T13:11:00.000-07:00

The Bears have a big weekend ahead of them. The team could be said to be in somewhat of a disarray - there is an open QB competition, the star running back and defensive end are out, and the team heading into the season rated second in the Pac 10 is coming to town.

This on the heals of a devastating second half collapse last year after similar QB troubles.

The game is on ABC, broadcast across the entire west, including the entire Pac 10 market and half the WAC market. So it is also necessary for the Bears to have a good showing from a recruiting perspective, as ASU is starting to move up the recruiting ranks.

So this is a big game. A Bye week follows, which will allow the Bears to either lick their wounds, or solidify their position amongst the Pac 10 elite.

This is a game where every fan is needed. Come out early, in the rain, and bring a flask. Yell loud.

The Bears need a home field advantage in this game, mostly because ASU is susceptible to getting hit early and fading. If you nail Rudy Carpenter with five sacs in the first half, you are going to win - ASU is a passing team, and the defense needs to do well early to get them out of their rhythm.

They are going to try to run a bit more, but I think that the key will be to stop the pass first. That means blitzes, pressure. And loud fans.

The Bears offense also needs to come out swinging. We need to take the early lead and gang up on these guys. The slow starts of the past four games are not going to win in the Pac 10. Clearly, that is why JT is taking Kevin riley to the woodshed. i think he knows Riley is the better equipped athlete. But it's a complicated game, you need to be a smart, fast learner, and I think that JT knows Riley needs to concentrate a bit more. It is clear that when he is out there he is hesitant because there is too much information, and he is afraid to play loose. Hopefully this week of competition will let him let go a bit.

My guess is that JT will say both will play. He will let Nate start, and bring in KR in the second quarter. And see who does better. My guess is that this will be enough for KR to separate himself from Nate. I hope so. But if not, I would not hesitate to bring Nate back in - he is a very good QB, and will do fine.

At the end of the day, I trust Sagarin. He has the Bears as a 20 point favorite. Plus three at home, and the Bears are almost 24 point favorites. I think that could be the case. Cal has juts as much talent as Georgia - just maybe not as much experience. We could score 42 on these guys. And I think we could hold them to 17. We just need to play our best and all will be well.

The good news is, if we have a QB brain fart, we will replace this week. We will not wait to lose the game and say what we should have done. So I think that is great. It seems like no matter what, whoever come in for the struggling QB has made good headway for the Bears. Maybe it is just a change of pace difficult for the defense to adjust to. But since the AFA game last season, the QB who came in second made a big difference. And, yes, I am including the MSU game, where Nate went three for three after KR anemic first quarter. Granted, he threw two INTs in a row to kill his chances. But the team did respond and the defense was flummoxed when he came in.

In any event, I am excited for this game. It will be a true test of the Bears - do we have a chance to run the table, or are we a mediocre team this year. Because let's be clear - ASU is a mediocre team this year.

GO BEARS!!

Best News

2008-09-30T17:06:00.000-07:00

Good news on Jahvid Best. It looks like it will be a few weeks off, and then back in action. No serious damage.

I think the Bears will do fine without him, but it is exciting to see him on kick returns. I also think our passing game will suffer a bit...not good news.

Vareen is almost an equal in the backfield, and Slocum could offer a change of pace. I think that this will open up some more pass catching opportunities for the tight end and the fullback. I would love to see Will T get a pass and run over some DBs.

The Bears need to get some game going down the middle of the field. Maybe Riley can not see over the linemen but that needs to open up some. We focus too much on the outside passing.

Also, shovel passes, middle screens, and all sorts of other junk need to be added to the playbook. This ASU game is critical to our young Bears if we want a chance of National Respect and Ranking. If we win, I see us in the top 25. Lose, and it is over for us - we would have to win the final 7 to get back to the top 25.

GO BEARS!!

QB Talk

2008-09-30T16:47:00.001-07:00

It looks like Nate and Kevin will get equal reps this week, and it will be a game time decision as to which one starts.

i think this is great. First of all, I think Kevin will start, and Nate will go in later, after we are up by 28. I do think that this change really puts Kevin's feet to the fire.

Starting at QB is a lot more work and a lot more prep time than being #2. Hopefully this will open up Kevin's eyes to the fact that if he wants to start at QB for the Bears, it is a full time job. You need to be a student of the game. Nate is that, and he has done that for years. Kevin is new at it.

There is the rule of 10,000 hours. Essentially, that means that to become expert at something, you have to really have dedicated about 10,000 hours to perfecting that practice. In other words, if you are a cook, or an attorney, or a sales guy, it is after about 5 years where you really feel like you know what you are doing. Or if you are working 80 hours per week, 2 1/2 years.

These guys play about 20 hours per week in High School for about 15 weeks per year. That is 300 hours x 4. Maybe they played pop warner, maybe pickup games. Let's give them 2000 hours before they get to college.

Nate has been working probably about 1500 hours per year on his game at Cal. So he is now at about 8000 hours. Riley, on the other hand, is probably about 5000 hours. That is a huge gap. It is why 5th year seniors in the Pac 10 do well, and others need more practice. On top of that, studies and other responsibilities are more difficult.

I would say that providing any way for Kevin Riley to focus and put the time in this year is a huge positive for him. it is just practice - he has the tools to get it done eventually.

But if he does not, Nate is there, and he will be fine.

GO BEARS!!

Nate Longshore

2008-09-28T01:03:00.000-07:00

Jeff Tedford took Kevin Riley out and replaced him with Nate Longshore during the second half of today's game, i am not sure if that was a replacement due to poor performace (third straight game of poor performance). Kevin Riley's is playing much worse this year than Nate did last year during our losing streak. We are lucky that we have only one loss at this time - we have more of a team effort which is supporting the team.

It will be interesting to see what JT does. He needs his guys to play better. This is the reason why he did not play Kevin Riley last year, and I think this whole scenario is sort of a vindication of his thought process last year. I do think that eventually Kevin Riley will be a better QB than Nate Longshore. But so far, he has not shown that he is.

GO BEARS!!

SC - Wow!

2008-09-25T21:31:00.000-07:00

USC got their head's handed to them by the Beavers once again.

USC, I think, is a great team. Unfortunately for the Trojans, Oregon State always has something special for them in Corvallis. This is the second time in a row where the Beavers have won there against SC.

Which is weird for Cal fans, because since Tedford has been here, it is almost the opposite. We only win in Corvallis, and lose at home against the Beavers.

Oregon State once again proves that Mike Riley is one of the best football coaches in the College game. I think he does more with less than almost anyone. Granted - he will take almost anyone. But they end up with a good team year in and year out. Inevitably, it is a slow start, and ends up at 8-4 or 9-3 each year. That is because he develops mediocre talent and they improve throughout the year. Lots of JC transfers, lots of other transfers (just landed a new QB from Virginia, who was kicked off the team for drinking related issues).

To be honest, if Oregon State get's past Utah next week, it will be something. They all of a sudden will have the inside track to the Pac 10 title. They get all of the toughest opponents remaining at home (Cal, Oregon and ASU). They will have to travel to Washington and Arizona, both of which can be tough for the Beavers. And it will improve the Pac 10 overall conference position. i think it really is critical for Cal and Oregon State to win this weekend for Pac 10 strength of schedule and computer rankings. Utah is a top 15 team, or else they will be by next week. Oregon State knocking off two top 15 teams will definitely vault them into the top 25. If Oregon, Cal and Arizona State can keep up (as well as SC) I could see 4 or 5 top 25 teams from the Pac 10 by the end of the year.

This is actually great for Cal. It takes SC out of the running for the NCG (most likely). If SC loses once more, which I could see, this is a great opportunity for the Bears to finally end the Trojan streak as Pac 10 dominators. I think Cal is in the best position as second in the Pac 10, and now, the leader has made a critical mistake. Let's see if the Bears can capitalize on it.

And as we do, let's all remember that Oregon State started the Cal nosedive last year on the famous Kevin Riley brain cramp. Imagine if we both go into the Oregon State game with Pac 10 leadership riding on it, and Riley has to go into Corvallis to get revenge on the Beavers for last year. That could be a crazy game.

But first, Colorado State.

GO BEARS!!

AP Poll Analysis

2008-09-23T22:15:00.000-07:00

Here are some interesting facts about the AP poll and the teams ahead of us:

This is the list of teams ranked ahead of us with one loss, who have played teams with a worse won -loss record than the Bears have played:

East Carolina
Illinois
Oregon
Ohio State
Fresno State
Georgia Tech
Michigan State (we beat them, but that doesn't seem to matter to the pollsters).
North Carolina
Miami
Auburn
Florida State

Here is the list of teams with one loss that their opponents have a better record than our opponents:

West Virginia

Our one loss is to a 3-1 Maryland team. I am not saying that they are a tremendous team, but they are not crap, as everyone has been led to believe. i think they win three or four more games, make a bowl, and end up with 7 or 8 wins. Not too shabby. If that is our let-down loss for the year, I can live with that. They may make even more noise in an ACC division that is not so great.

All of this will take care of itself as the year rolls on. The Maryland loss will not look so bad (it already does not) and the rest of the Pac 10 will shake out with three terrible teams (who lose everything), two really bad teams (who beat the terrible teams but no one else) and I think three teams who beat everyone else except the top two (ASU, Oregon and Arizona), and then Cal, who loses to USC. If that were the scenario, Cal and SC would have beaten three 8 win Pac 10 teams, and would have the resume to make the big games. Including what I believe will be a decent Michigan State team, the Bears will have beaten about half of their opponents who have winning seasons - in other words, bowl bound teams. And lost to two bowl bound teams - Maryland and USC.

The only issue is to get the Media off the Pac 10 bashing - that could be hard this year with the crappy out of conference showing. Last year, the Pac 10 got lost of big props for playing a tough out of conference schedule, and doing well. This year, we got creamed on our out of conference schedule. Oh well.

GO BEARS!!

Cal and the Polls and all that stuff

2008-09-23T22:09:00.000-07:00

News Flash - College Football Expert and all around smart guy Jerry Palm of CollegeBCS.com is predicting at this point that the Bears will be the Rose Bowl candidate in the Pac 10.

I assume these are his assumptions:

1) USC wins out
2) Cal wins out except at USC, since Oregon and ASU are at Cal and they look like crap, and they are the best of the rest.

If that happens, it is almost an impossibility for the Bears not to be in the Rose Bowl.

Here are my assumptions. We win this weekend and next, and we are in the top 20 after our Bye week. Then, Oregon at home - top 15. USC loss, top 23. Slowly creep back up to top 15 with out final games. We need to be 14 or better to get in. At 10 - 2, we definitely will be. 9-3 could be very tough. But doable. Depends on the computers this week.

I will say one thing. If we do win out, except for USC, we will be favored in every game.

GO BEARS!!

Cal at Colorado State

2008-09-23T21:30:00.000-07:00

Colorado State, as we all remember, can be a difficult team. Last year, we had a great first quarter run for a touchdown, a few good drives, and thought we had the ball game put away. And then, they kept coming at us. And that was a team that only won a few games last year.

We need to do two things this week. 1) We fans need to be loud. 2) The teams needs to come out hard and play hard all game long. We need another Washington State type of game, where we keep going, and the other team is demoralized. Because we need to get back on the map, and we need to get ready for ASU.

It should be remembered that the Bears are young. That means that they probably play better at home. It also means they probably play with more emotion and with more momentum. Kevin Riley as I said in an earlier post seems to need to have a fire lit behind him. I think some home cooking could be useful for him.

One thing that I have not seen a lot written about is the Bears continuing inability to play on grass fields. If I am correct, we have only won twice in the Tedford Era on grass fields - one Holiday Bowl and one Armed Forces Bowl. And those are situations. In both the Rose Bowl and the Coliseum, we have not won with JT. We have not won at the other Holiday Bowl extravaganza - in fact we looked kinda slow against Texas Tech.

This is a situation where it is very different to play on a different surface - Cal practices and plays at Memorial - it is very comfortable for them. But grass at Berkeley is scarce, and they do not get the opportunity to play on grass that often, and it does make a difference.

Frankly, the Bears should have a grass field. And a separate practice field. And an indoor practice field. Like Penn State. The issue is they need to be comfortable in multiple situations. The SAHPC is not going to solve this issue.

I think that the Bears should build a huge building up on Strawberry Canyon, on the Rugby Field. Grass on top, turn inside. Also, bright lights for evening intramurals and Rugby games. About 20 rows of stands on each side. That would solve the issue about the turf, and really piss off the NIMBYs. Take that.

But seriously, there needs to be some sort of drills run on grass before the team goes off to these places. JT like the business trip aspect of the travels, but frankly, when I go on a business I am not running for my life because a huge Defensive End is trying to end me. Maybe I would arrive a bit earlier if that was the case.

And the whole thing about young guys needing less sleep - that is patent bull. When you are growing, working out and cramming 24/7 like these guys are, sleep is critical. Messing with the cycle can cause significant issues. As we have seen time and again.

So, let's stick to the home cooking for a bit. Next time we go back east for a huge game, like Ohio State - lets make sure we get there early, and prepare. Nothing like being in Maryland or Tennessee to see the Bears fall completely apart because they just were not ready for the trip. For many of these guys, this is probably the first time they have been east of Arizona.

I guess all of this is why I think we will do fine this week - we are at home, with a beatable opponent. The Bears are wanting to do some damage to make up for what they know to be a bad loss - a game they should have won. Not that Maryland is terrible - they are like the Ben Braun led bears hoops team - every once in a while you see something great, but then...So it is not as terrible as it seems to have lost to them.

But we need the prescriptive win this weekend to help salve the wounds. Otherwise, it could be a long year. And these Colorado State Rams are better than last year.

GO BEARS!

Saturday Evening Recap

2008-09-20T23:14:00.000-07:00

Cal opponents Maryland and Michigan State looked good today in victory against directional U and Notre Dame respectively. Otherwise, the Pac 10 continues to look poor, with Oregon losing to Boise State (and continuing their QB troubles) and ASU lost to a decent Georgia team, with only four yards of rushing total.

SC was Idle, as were the Bears.

Four top 25 teams lost this week, and Fresno State almost lost to Toledo on the road, but the rockets went for two in the second OT and missed, giving Fresno the game gift wrapped.

It looks like Cal is going to move up a bit in the computer rankings, and should get more than the 7 total votes in the human pools after last week. There are currently 28 undefeated teams (many are second tier teams that will not move up), and 5 teams in the top 25 with loses. 4 other teams lost this week. The question is what are the one loss teams that are decent - and Cal is a decent one loss team at this point, with us having played one of the tougher non-conference schedules. Our current ranking for schedule is somewhere in the lower teens.

I doubt that the Bears move back into the top 25 this week, but if we play well the next two weeks, i think we can make the top 25 with a 4-1 record, coming in right around 20. Many of the teams currently above us will start to play each other, knocking each other off. There are 5 SEC teams in the top 10. They all play each other many times. They will have two or three losses each.

The ones that we have to be concerned about are the BYU and the Boise States of the world. BYU and Utah play each other. I was hoping that Utah would lose today, but they came back to win in the end against Air Force. I am hoping that Air Force or some other team catches BYU down. They look good. In fact, I could see BYU getting into the top 4 this year if they run the table.

Boise State and plays Fresno State. I think Fresno wins. East Carolina loses today ruining their BCS chances.

In any event, generally the other team loses take care of themselves. If we end up 10-2, I think we have a strong shot at a BCS game. Especially if SC is taken by the NCG.

Here is how it could play out. BYU goes to Fiesta, against Oklahoma. Georgia and USC against each other in National Championship game. Cal vs Wisconsin at the Rose, Clemson vs South Florida at the Orange, and LSU at Missouri in the Sugar. I think that is a strong possibility if the Bears only lose to SC, in a strong showing at the Coliseum.

We would have to make the top 14, but I think that our computers would get us there (depending on how Maryland and Michigan State continue to do). In any event, we are not out of it - if we have a decent season, there is still hope to get to a BCS game. I do not think the Bears have a shot at the NCG, regardless of whether or not we win out, just based on the weakness of the Pac 10 schedule.

I do think every Pac 10 game is winnable for the Bears. In fact, I think they will be favored in each game after next weekend, except for SC. We shall see.

GO BEARS!!

Pac 10 Blues

2008-09-16T23:26:00.000-07:00

The terrible showing of the Pac 10 over the weekend makes the difficult issue of conference comparison a bit more difficult. The first two weeks of the season, the Pac 10 did relatively well. Then, it all came crashing down.

Overall, the Pac 10 this year is 5-5 against major college teams (BCS Teams). For comparison, here are the other major conferences: ACC - 4-6; Big 12 - 5-3; Big East 2-5; Big 10 5-5; SEC 4-2. In addition, the Mountain West is 6-3 against the majors. So it is clear that overall, the Pac 10 is sort of middle of the road this year in terms of the overall conference strength. But the other critical aspect is that we are 0-5 against the Mountain West conference. So if we included the Mountain West against the Pac 10 we are 5-10 against. Of course, the mountain west has only played Pac 10 out of conference, and generally has played the lower half of the conference (yes, including UCLA). But UNVL beating Arizona State in OT os an eye opener.

The MWC does not get a lot of opportunities to play other conferences. They have only two games against the Big 12, both of which they lost, and San Diego State played Notre Dame, and lost in OT. So for the major college football BCS division, it seems like the Pac 10 is the big opportunity for the MWC to make some noise. And they do a good job.

I think if the MWC wanted to really move to a top tier flight, as a year in and year out BCS participant, they should poach on the WAC. They should target Boise State, Fresno State, and Nevada, and have a 12 team conference, with a conference Championship game. I believe that they would have two or three in the top 25 each year, and they would be a major conference. It would not be the Pac 10, but over time they could really develop a market for their programs. And, I think the Pac 10 would have somewhat of a difficult time recruiting. Already, the folks from Eastern Washington are going to Boise, and not Washington or Washington State. If there were alternatives relatively local for kids to move to a BCS conference, there could be big consequences.

In addition, the Mountain West could have some pretty good Bowl game tie-ins. An annual BCS game at the Fiesta Bowl would be nice for them against the Big 12. The Las Vegas Bowl all of a sudden would be a much bigger deal - maybe a New Years day bowl - MTW against the Pac 10 second place teams. Or maybe that is a Bay Area bowl game on New Years Day for the second place teams in both conferences. It would be nice to have the Holiday Bowl not be our only other real bowl opportunity.

In any event, I think it is concern, but also possibly a positive that the Mountain West is doing so well. At the end of the day, losing to a decent conference like the MWC is not so bad as Ohio State playing all the crappy Ohio schools in the MAC.

I do think that the poor showing of UCLA in particular has something to do with BYUs familiarity of Norm Chows offense. Clearly they are familiar with his coaching philosophies as he was offensive coordinator there for something like 25 years. If that is what BYU did to them, I can only wait until Pete Carroll gets a hold of UCLA.

Breaking down the rest of the Pac 10 loses, the only one that really strikes me as odd is the loss of ASU to UNLV. Mostly because UNLV is not a good team. And it was at ASU. But it could be that ASU is just no that good. I think that is probably the case, and should not have been ranked as a top 25 team from the start of the season.

I do think that the Washington teams are in for a long season - both of them. Neither are any good.

We all know the legions of reasons why Cal lost - bottom line - they were not ready to play the game. But that does not mean they are going to blow the season. I think at the end of the day, the top three in the conference are going to be Cal, Oregon and USC - most likely SC going away with it. But they could lose one or two like they do when distracted, and then Oregon or Cal could sneak in there and get a share or a Pac 10 title. Even with USC going to the Championship game.

ASU, Oregon State and Arizona I think will be the second tier, and probably the bowl eligible teams. And lagging the Pac will be UCLA, the Washington schools, and Stanfurd. In some sort of order of futility.

At the end of the day, I am still positive on the Bears. i think they clearly have the talent, young though it is. They need seasoning and they need toughness. Hopefully they can be pushed into it in the weeks ahead.

GO BEARS!!

Maryland Destroys the Bears, and all hope fades...

2008-09-13T13:04:00.000-07:00

They say you should not post when you are emotional, but...

Getting beat by Maryland, a team which is a decent team most years, would not be so bad. Except that they are not that good this year, and they totally dominated the Bears in every aspect of the game. Sacks like never before seen. Kevin Riley looked TERRIBLE. The game was made respectable when the Terps pulled in and allowed the Bears to make a few big plays by playing prevent defense late in the 4th quarter, but we did not have a touchdown until 6 minutes left in the game.

Our offensive and defensive lines were dominated. Our vaunted rushing attached netted 38 yards on 23 carries - 1.7 yards per carry. When the lone bright spot is your punter, that is a problem.

To be clear - this is not a good football team that we lost to today. They are probably not going to go to a bowl. They will probably finish in the bottom half of the ACC, the worst BCS conference around. They would be an average WAC team.

What the offense needed, frankly, was Nate Longshore. Yes, I am bringing that out. It has been clear to me that Riley does not have what it takes to lead a team in the regular season. So far, in games that he has started, he is 2-2. One win was probably against the worst team the Bears have ever faced, Washington State last week. Even in that game, the Bears struggled until Longshore came in during passing situations. In the other win, Riley looked pretty bad until Nate came in (and blew it to say the least). But Riley needed something to get him in the game.

I know, I know, Kevin Riley is god. But it is one thing to have all of the physical talents, and the playmaking ability - which he does have. It is quite another to put it together on game day, week in and week out when the team is counting on you. You frankly do not have that down yet as a sophomore. Teams who win National Championships do it with senior QBs. Not sophomores. This is a game that a workman like Bear team should dominate. And he is not workman-like. He has an eqo, and an expectation that he is the guy. Now that he has won the job, I think he needs a kick in the ass to get him going. We should have put Nate in the game, and let him play a bit. That seems to fire Kevin up. He needs to know that playing lousy is not OK. We have a very good QB waiting in the wings. For all the Nate Haters who think I am crazy - look at the first quarter Riley stats of all the games that he has played. Oregon State last year - put us in the hole, and it got away. Maryland this year - same thing. WSU - lousy play in the first half. He came off the bench to show the world what he was made of in Texas last year with Air Force, but we are not asking for superman. We are asking for steady, dominating performances.

We can not afford to let this malise creep into the team. These guys need to start better.

It is a young team. They need senior leadership to step up, and they also need to stop reading the press clippings. I think JT knows that and I hope he does something about it the next two weeks. Everything should be opened up for competition again.

GO BEARS!!

Updates

2008-09-09T21:39:00.000-07:00

The trees are down, the protest is over, and no one but the protesters really cared (and the media who tried to make something big of this).

Now, in a few short weeks (or 8), the bulldozers and excavations will begin, and the new building will start to go up. It will be two and a half years of construction, lasting until the beginning of the 2011 season. Instead of the 2009 season.

I wonder what would happen if there is an earthquake, and Tedford is injured in the football office in the stadium. Do you think he has a right to sue the protesters and the City of Berkeley? In essence, what this entire thing has done is delayed the inevitable for two years, and endangered the lives of the folks who work in and around the stadium. This has been the most crass form of self-interested protest I have ever seen in Berkeley. These folks are the ones who failed to make MTV's Big Brother, and decided that this was the next best thing. It makes my skin crawl.

But it is on it's way.

...

The Bears leave on FRIDAY for a game Saturday morning at 9:00 AM pacific time. I hope JT is getting those boys up early this week. That is going to be one hell of a early morning start for them. The weather also may be a concern, with rain possible. At least it will be warm - in the 70's. The rain may break up some of the humidity. In any event, if the Bears can keep their footing, they should do well.

They are playing in Byrd Stadium, which has a capacity of about 50,000 fans (they are going through a renovation soon to increase it to 60,000 or so, with luxury boxes, etc). It is only about 10 miles from downtown Washington DC, and I think it is the only real Division 1 program close. So it should have some decent local representation. But DC is a pro sports town, and the Maryland football team has not always been a powerhouse. There are also a lot of other smaller colleges locally (Georgetown, George Washington, etc) which are mostly basketball schools. College hoops is much more important there than football.

But Maryland has had some decent success under Ralph Friedgen. This year has not gone quite as well as they have hoped, but they have found a way to stitch together a number of 10 win seasons over the past 6 years. Of course, they are playing in the ACC - the worst college football conference in the BCS. So that may not be the accomplishment that it once may have been, when Miami and Florida State were at their peak.

The Bears have crawled into the top 25 this week, and have made some headway into some of the media folks conscience. For example, Stewart Mandel of Sports Illustrated has the Bears breaking into the SI.com top 15 at number 18. Others in the national media have started to notice Jahvid Best's numbers. That can and will help to propel the Bears up the BCS ladder. We are looking for a top 12 finish and a 10-2 record or better to be considered for a BCS game.

Speaking of rankings, Sagarin's pure points predictor, which is the best at determining - over a longer period of time that the Bears have been playing this season - the victor of a particular game, has the Bears at number 4, tied with Oklahoma, and behind USC, Florida and LSU. He has us essentially at a 22 point differential with Maryland, which would be reduced by 3.5 due to the Maryland home game. So looking at an 18.5 point differential. Vegas has us at 14.5 - essentially giving us a touchdown discount for the trip back east. Maybe it's time to bet the house...

I do think that the Bears SHOULD cover the spread this week. It will be a good test for Riley to play on another coast, against a different kind of crowd. I think there is also safety in this trip. It is a trip where, if all else fails, we just put the ball into the fullbacks hands and run it right up their gut. Let's face it - Maryland has a pathetic run defense, and we should just go straight at them, eat the clock, and get out of there.

Another interesting thing about this week is that in the Massey computer program poll, we dropped from 40 to 66, which moved our average on the computers to 22, from 17 last week. So, even though we increased four places on the human polls, we dropped in the computers and we are therefore still at number 22. Interestingly about Massey - Ohio State is number 115. So I am not really thinking it is doing it's job this early in the season. If we win again on the road against a BCS team (and most of the computers add a huge plus on the away game victory) we should have a good increase, even if we do not move that far in the Human polls. I can not see a victory against maryland propel us very far up. A loss, of course, would be a disaster. We simply need to get though this game with a W and move on.

GO BEARS!!

Washington State Recap

2008-09-07T22:26:00.000-07:00

Well, that was some game. It was really unbelievable.

When I said that we should clobber them, I did mean it. I just did not think it would happen. i guess I was thinking about last year, and all the crap that went down, and the bad vibes and all that stuff. Let's face it - the trees, the implosion, the Longshore issue...all that garbage hanging over the Bears for the 10 months sure sucked some of the life out of things.

I think this game washed all of that away. They are not perfect - they in fact made plenty of mistakes and there is still plenty of work to be done. But it is clear that they can play up to their potential, and play with the abandonment of the early years of Tedford.

in 2002, when we went to the Insight Bowl, and we won 52 to 49 against Virginia Tech, that was such a huge game for Cal. We went in, we let loose, and we won in a shootout against a top team. Maybe not that year, but a top team. After the game - much later - we were at a Denny's or something like that for a sop up the booze pre-bedtime meal and Ryan Gutierrez was there with his big, extended family. Ryan was the defensive player of the game. They were having a blast, but you could tell it was a very special thing - they were proud and really excited. We chatted with the family a bit, and it was clear that they loved Tedford, they loved what he had done to the program, and what a great time they were having as a team. That was the building block for the next year, when we should have been at the Rose.

Well, this feels like that. All the old crap is floating away, and the Bears are on a mission. The trees are cut down, the team is on a roll, the rankings are starting, and the QB issue is resolved. And yes, Longshore did look good. Which is good.

There were issues at the game, but I am not going to go into that too much now. Tedford said the right thing - the offense needs work. And it does. We still do not have great receivers working in synch with the QBs. But that will come soon, I think. Hopefully before ASU. It would be hard to fault our defense - any time you hold a team under 200 yards it is a good day. So good job Bob Gregory and crew. The biggest issue I see is the special teams, the kick game, and returns. We need to work on that as well. And the offensive line needs to work a bit on pass protection - it seemed like there was some pressure on the QB that was either Riley holding the ball too long or else not getting the protection that he needed. Longshore did not seem to have that problem, frankly.

But this was a great win. Good job, and

GO BEARS!!

Cal vs Washington State

2008-09-05T22:29:00.000-07:00

Just a few notes -

The Bears should clobber WSU. We have the talent, the coaching, etc. But they do have the location.

WSU lost to Oklahoma State by a bunch the other day, but that game was played in Seattle, not in eastern Washington. This is the first real home game for the Cougars. And Oklahoma State is a good team. At least, it is coached by a man...

This is also the first home game for the new coach, and I am sure that the fans will be supportive. They know the hand he was dealt. The Bears need to come out strong and put out any fires right away to make sure that this game does not get into a situation where there could be a miracle finish, which often happens against us at the Palouse.

Washington State is playing 13 games this year again, as they are going to Hawaii at the end of the season. I guess that will be their bowl game. They would have to win 7 to be bowl eligible, which is doable for them but unlikely. Their next two games are at Baylor and Portland State, so they have something to look forward to after this weekend.

WSU was held to 196 yards vs Oklahoma State. Jahvid Best had a total of 277 all purpose yards. Interesting. So clearly, the focus is going to be on stopping the Bear rushing attack. I think that teams that do that early in the season have a great opportunity to get burned by Riley and the maturing receiver group. So I think this will be an interesting game - first to see what WSU is up to, and second to see if the young Riley can handle a tough crowd.

If Riley starts to fall apart up there (which I doubt) and JT puts Nate in, and he does well. I do not think there is a controversy. Riley is the guy, from here on out (unless he gets hurt). When Rodger's came out of the USC game, after getting rattled, there was no doubt that he would be going back in the next game, and not Reggie Roberson. That is the same type of situation we have here now. Riley is the guy. But this will be a big test for him and the rest of this young team. I look forward to watching.

GO Bears!!

BCS Update

2008-09-04T23:09:00.000-07:00

Just a few quick numbers...

The Bears are currently ranked 22 in the BCS standings, with the computer rankings averaging 17 and the two polls averaging 27.5, I use the AP poll as a substitute for the Harris Poll, since all the Harris people do is copy the AP. In any event, the voters are lagging the computers based on one weeks data. Sagarin has Cal at 10 in his ELO CHESS model, which is what they use for the BCS rankings (although 28 on his predictor Model, which I think is the most accurate).

Anyway, just 15 more to go...

i predict that we will be comfortably in the top 15 if we can win the next three games in the human and computer polls (not really going out on a limb there). Then, if we can take care of business against Arizona State and Arizona, we will be top 10. Oregon, UCLA, top 7. Then, SC. BOOM - number 3 (SC at 6, by the by). What will suck will be our last game loss, saving Ty Willingham's job, putting SC back into the NCG, and relegating us to the ROSE BOWL!!!

Anyhow, sounds good now.

GO BEARS!!

And the Trees will come down...

2008-09-04T22:32:00.000-07:00

i think we should wait until the Stanfurd game, and let everyone take a swing with an ax on that day...

Yes, ladies and gentlemen, the Student Athlete High Performance Center is finally cleared to go ahead - the injunction is lifted, the University has the green light to go, and, even if a further appeal is filed, by the time it is adjudicated, the building will have been built.

Today, the California Court of Appeals ruled that there was no injunction in place and therefore no automatic extension of the injunction for 20 days when the oaks protesters appealed.

I think three items had to influence the judges. First, the ruling by Judge Miller was so comprehensively in favor of the University that there was very little chance that an appeal would actually be won. Second, that the City of Berkeley, as well as a number of other plaintiffs, had dropped out, and that the only people still fighting the fight were the NIMBYs and the Tree protesters. And the Tree protestors have already been ruled against twice. And the NIMBY's are arguing clearly about something they do not care about - the safety of the Stadium. The city of Berkeley was a somewhat reasonable opponent, and would have some standing with the court. But when this became a situation of some neighbors of the University arguing about the States right to operate it's own property, it became clear to the judges that eventually it would be dismissed, and these guys were just wasting everyones time and money. And of course, finally, all of these guys know they are paid by the state, which by the way, still does not have a budget, and these judges soon will be without a paycheck, and to have these idiots causing the University to spend an additional million or so a month just must not have set well.

Anyway, who cares. The deal is done. Let's move on. There will be a little dust-up, and someone will be hurt, and the University will have to sue the individual (and, lets be fair, their parents for raising such a spoiled little brat) and that will be that.

Go Bears!!

Nate Longshore

2008-09-03T22:42:00.001-07:00

I want to say here and now that I have a supporter of Nate Longshore, at least in the sense that I think it stinks the way the posters on the boards have been dogging Nate. He is a good QB, and I do think that he will end up on an NFL team somewhere next season. Yes, Tedford should ahve played Riley more, but as I go back and look at the games last year, there was never really a point where it would have made sense, unless you just gave him the UCLA call and went from there.

I also believe that Kevin Riley is a great talent, and will also end up on an NFL: team, and probably do great things. It is probably the one time when having your dad as your football coach turns you into a better player instead of a head case (in fact, I think that there is probably something there with Tedford, but who knows).

In any event, Longshore clearly was pressing on the two stupid throws that he made, and for JT, that was enough for him. It is hard when you are told for three years by your coach that experience, managing the huddle, managing the game, was the most important aspect of the game and that you were the best at it. And then, the week before your senior year, the same coach comes to you and says, well, yes, you are the better game manager, and you are the more experienced, but he is just a better play-maker. Oh yeah - I will put you in for a series or two and see how you do in real competition.

Instead of Nate being Nate, he tried to be Riley. And of course failed at the end by trying to throw into quadruple coverage. You could see the frantic look as he went to his third progression and no one was open. He had a few yards in front of him, and he should have run. Oh well.

Tedford should not have put Nate in that position, although I will say this. Riley did not look good until after the Longshore expedition. Then, he seemed to get his but kicked a bit. In other words, against MSU, Riley was trying to be too much like Nate and Nate was trying to be too much like Riley. And frankly, what we need is both doing what they do. And we need both this season. Nate is not going to be a come from behind 35 points kind of guy. He is a game manager, and generally does not lose his cool. But he needs players who are also somewhat professional out there, and, the Cal players maybe are not there yet. I bet he does better in the pros- frankly.

Riley is a rally the troops kind of guy. I actually think he will do better if Nate is looking over his shoulder, to kick him in the ass. Which is why I am a bit worried about JT taking the Longshore experiment off the shelf. I think he needs to keep pressure on KR to keep him going. He came on in the fall practice when Nate looked to be moving ahead near the end of the camp. He came on near the end of the OSU game and when we were down big in the Air force game. And he came on after Nate went in this weekend. I am not going to say he is a slacker, but maybe he is a guy who needs to be pushed. So Nate having the crappy game I think is bad for Cal.

Furthermore, we need to get Nate back up and running for his own sake. We need a capable backup who is not a head case if something happens to Riley. Last year, if Riley was ready, he could have taken the team onward, and we would have been fine. Maybe not national champs, but certainly Holiday bowl material. So no more complaints when Tedford puts in Longshore to get his head back on. In fact, it could be sooner than you think. Let's see what happens when Riley starts in a hostile environment. Maybe Nate comes in to save the day this time (God I hope not).

Back in Business

2008-09-03T21:38:00.000-07:00

I decided to start posting again, mostly since school is back in and my kids are back at school, so I have a bit of time.

I want to apologize for not explaining my absence, except that I never really left. i just did not find anything compelling enough to comment on during the dog days of summer. I knew, for example, that the decision on Longshore was going to come during the season. Both he and Riley would play, at least the first game or two. Well, it looks like that is sewn up for Kevin. I will have a further post on that later, but suffice it to say that I think Nate Longshore is a good QB, and probably will get a look in the NFL. And I think he will play again for the Bears this year.

I also want to say that the whole tree sitter thing is wearing on me, and I was not about to participate in the breathless anticipation of the law suit finality, and the eventual dragging out of the final stages. We have a long way to go, and we will eventually get there. Unlike most college football fans, I think long term - I remember the Joe Kapp years (and had a hell of a good time at Cal games during those years).

So I just stopped posting until I found a subject that interested me in posting about. Of course, the first game of the season is just that subject, and so, a little late, I want to talk about the Bears, this time in the history of the Cal football team, and the rest of the season.

First, I want to take us back to the Tom Holmoe years. And I want to take us back to the years of hope in the Tom Holmoe years. Yikes!! you say...but it is true. The first two years of TH were years of hope, but slowly diminishing. We had a decent defense, and the offense was OK, and Gilbey was gone. Gilbey was TH, but better, but we didn't know it yet. Our excitement with Marriucci, and with the inevitable collapse a year or three away, the struggle to get to .500 was seen as likely. We were going to be a power!

If you remember, someone back then said that Cal was a sleeping giant in football - maybe Sports Illustrated, or someone with respectable credentials. We all clung to that hope, and TH seemed like the upstanding guy who could get us there... maybe. He had a superbowl ring or two, and the 49ers were the team of the decade.

But year after year it went downhill again. Tom was a good guy, and it is hard to get rid of a good guy, but enough was enough.

Let's remember what we were dying and hoping for...to get to .500. Maybe a winning season.

Come Tedford and we see how petty and small that made us. Cal really was a sleeping giant. We just needed to be woken up.

So as we boo Longshore because we all could have done much better, and we complain about how crappy we looked against a top 40 team when the game was never really in doubt, and it was clear who was the much better team, I think that we should all feel good that our biggest letdown so far is that we played half of last year with an injured QB who for better or worse was unable to lead the team. JT made the right call in the way that he handled the situation this year, and I for one think that this is going to be a great year for Cal football.

First, we have the weapons to win every game we plan. The Pac 10 has gotten tougher, but then again, we have as well. And frankly, I think we have gotten seriously deep. We have fast athletes at almost every position, except for perhaps kicker, and there is no one in the conference, save perhaps USC, who has as deep a program as we have right now. Because, for the past 6 years, we have been the second best recruiter in the Pac 10, and the best talent developer. I do not see that changing.

While we had a significant loss last year in recruiting ranking, actually, it is clear that we signed a bunch of guys who can come in right away and help.

Clearly our biggest weakness is in the wide receiver ranks, where we have no experience at all to speak of. And that showed on Saturday. Also, our kickers need help experience wise. That could be a big issue in a big game. But overall, I believe that we are a truly talented team with tremendous upside this year.

Defensively, our new system is going to work better, even with the bend but don't break issue. That is because when we play BBDB, we have faster guys out there on the edge getting inside to the QB, putting pressure on. So it may not be a 7 drop, but on a 6 drop and 5 rush situation, it is going to be hard for the QB to get a lot of time. And while we may give up a bit more on the initial surge in pure rushing down, we have the players to close quickly and make a stop. Defensively, I think our biggest issue is the other corner - and if Hagan continues to improve as much as he did during the MSU game, we are going to be fine.

Offensively, our wideouts need to catch the ball. It is not an issue of getting open - at least for Boateng. He was open plenty, and dropped the ball. If he learns how to catch, he is going to be a very rich man. He is big, fast and strong, and has the instincts needed to get open. He just needs to catch, and I think that will come with time. We have a good possession receiver in Young, and hopefully another strong threat in Calvin once he is healthy.

The game looked a little like we were a bit unexperienced. And we are. But we are going to be just fine come December. So here is my yearly prediction: End of season, Cal ranked 5th in the country, 11-1, beats USC, and loses to ASU at home. Shares the Pac 10 title with SC (ugh). SC goes to the National Championship game, and we get the Rose Bowl. OK - I may be smoking a little bit, but let's face it - we have a favorable schedule this year, I think we will be favored in every game, except the SC and ASU game. Oregon will have no QB's left by the time we get there, and UCLA is in for a treat at memorial (let me be perfectly clear on this - there is no college coach that should be hated more than Neuheisel, and for UCLA to take that scum is a travesty to clear and good thinking people everywhere). The place should be rocking for that one.

And here is one more thing: these guys are pissed off and want to do something about last year. I know Alex Mack does, and Follett, and Rulon Davis. We are going to be tough this year.

I said it last year after the first game: National Champs. A little pre-mature. And I may be this year as well. But in true Cal tinted glasses, I do think that the Bears have a great shot this year at getting the Pac 10 title and getting into the Rose Bowl...and look out 2010. These quys will all be seniors then. Yikes!!

Spring Fling

2008-05-05T16:58:00.000-07:00

Well, the Rugby boys won another National Championship - ho hum...

5 in a row, 24 in the last 27. Not too bad. And that is not even thinking about the century of domination before they started counting in 1981.

No team in history has ever had a run like this is college or professional sports, I would wager. It is hard to wrap your mind around it.

St. Mary's gave the Bears a test in the semi-final game, but they weathered through that, and beat the BYU cougars for the 4th time in the last 4 years in the title game. Talk about futile.

Enjoy it while you can. I am sure that each year it get's tougher. But the Bears always seem to get up for the championship run when it counts. They had family emergencies, relatives dying, 10 season-ending injuries, and they plowed on for the final victory. You have to respect those guys.

GO BEARS!! Go Rugby.

And how about those female Pole Vaulters - taking first, second, and third in the Peyton Jordan Cardinal Qualifier at Stanford. Katie Morgan vaulted 14 feet, 6.25 inches (besting my high school best 14-6 by a quarter inch). That is a Cal women's pole vault record - that is the second record she has broken this year at Cal.

In second was Allison Stokke (I bet you know who she is), and Veronica Stimson, both at 12 feet, 2.5 inches. i think I remember that Allison had a 12-6 jump earlier in the year.

Cal's men's pole vault leader, Donnie Appanitis also came in first place at 16-7.5, although the rest of the team was further down the pack, almost two feet shorter than Donnie at 14-8. for 6th place.

In any event, it is nice to see the best event in Tract and Field do well for the Bears.

Actually, overall the Bears did well. It would be interesting to see if Jahvid Best would have helped the team out this spring were he not injured. The fastest time over the weekend for the Cal sprinters in the 100 was 10.62, which was good for second place (Kellen Peterson). If I remember correctly, Jahvid had run a 10.39 last year. Having him on the tract would have given the Bears a first, third, 5th and 7th place finish. I think that would have been a pretty good relay team.

He also would have help significantly on the 200, with his 21.03 in high school certainly being the best time for Cal this year.

I hope he gets a chance to run next year. While it is difficult to balance spring football, track and school, I think for an athlete of Best caliber, it is the right move. Certainly his biggest asset is his speed. If he can train on the track as well as on the field, I think it helps.

Anyway...

GO BEARS!!

Playoff Denied

2008-04-30T23:04:00.000-07:00

The BCS has decided that they like the current system, and they are not going to move to a playoff.

I could not be happier.

The idea of a playoff is a bad idea for college football. For a lot of reasons. But I want to first write about why people want a playoff.

First of all, they think it is more fair - things are settled on the field. That could not be more wrong. What is settled on the field? The only thing that is settled is that one team beat another. It does not follow that the team that lost could not have beaten on a more regular basis another team that beats the team that beat them, if you follow me. In other words, if Cal can never get by USC, and USC always loses to the Furd, and Cal always beats the Furd, then who is the better team? A playoff does not give you the ability to analyze that process. A true round robin schedule does give you the ability to analyze that more effectively. But because a playoff is a one and done, it is a poor way of selecting a champion.

I think that is important to remember. Many sports recognize this, and, like baseball, basketball, and the NHL, they have multiple games to try to fix the issue, so that a team on a hot streak or a lucky break does not get an advantage.

Frankly, this is why the NCAA basketball tournament is such a joke. Great teams, championship quality teams get knocked out each year before the finals. It is hard to say that since you lost one or two games in March that you are a worse team that the team that lost 10 through the year but got lucky that one day.

Playoff are not fair. So that is a crappy reason for having one.

The second reason people want a playoff is that it would be more exciting that the crappy third tier bowl games.

If that is the case, why are there going to be three more bowl games certified, so that every team who has a winning record, or who is qualified, will be going to a bowl game?

The reason is, of course, money. But it is also because colleges want their teams to end on success. Cal fans have been talking all since January about how great that Air Force game was -what a comeback. And it was. And we would have had a crappy end of the season (losing 6 of 7) without that bowl game giving us hope for the next year.

A good 25% of college football teams end their season with a victory in a bowl game, and alumni are happy, give a bit more to the school, and life goes on.

For the betting class, however, it does not have the parlay appeal that so excites everyone in March. There are no tournaments, no playoff fever. Thank god. College football is about your college team doing it's best, and winning what it can. This is a regional issue, not a national issue. Notre Dame thinks it is a national team, but it clearly is not in their best interest to play in a playoff format. They would be relegated each year to losing in the first round, if they ever made it. Their whole image would be in tatters - worse than it is now.

For most college football fans, the playoffs would occur without them. They would be in pre-set venues, with corporate sponsors taking all the tickets. You would not be able to see your Bears, if they ever got in. Just like in Hoops.

It was exciting to see Cal play Air Force in a crappy third tier bowl. We certainly would not have been invited to a playoff, and we certainly needed that win. And there are 25 other teams in the same boat. In a playoff, only one team end the season happy.

The final reason is that people want to see a champion crowned.

Why?

In a system that is patently not fair (there are only 12 gmaes - you need to have at least 20 for a statistically sound sample, and with injuries and such probably more), what is the benefit to being crowned the National Champion?

I think the way it works now is fine. The whole thing is a sham, so why not just let well enough alone, and crown whoever wins the one game people think is the championship game?

I, for one, will never be denied in my belief that in 2004, we could have beaten anyone (if only our receivers were not hurt), and we rightly should be National Champs. Who cares if I am right or wrong - the point is that my opinion is just as valid as any other idiot out there who crowns these guys.

And what about last year? There was clearly no team that deserved a championship, in the true sense. There was a team that won the title game. But they had two loses. No team was a clear champion. So why do we insist on having one? In the case of last year, they should have just said, forget it - no one wins this year. It was all a bunch of slop.

Here is how a true playoff should look:

All teams play in a 12 team conference. They play a full round robin tournament (11 games). Then, the winners of that play in a champions conference, and play a full round robin tournament (10 games). Then, the top two teams of that play a 5 game series.

I could stand behind that as being a fair way to crown a champion. But it is clearly not in the cards, and I frankly do not care that much.

I am excited if we can win the Pac 10. In 2006, we tied for first. That was great. That is our championship. If we ever get to a BCS title game and win, we will have won a game against another team, and won that trophy. But the true championship would be the Pac 10 title.

That is why college football is so fun - each week you get to talk about why you are better. And you never have to back it up.

GO BEARS!!