Playoff Denied

The BCS has decided that they like the current system, and they are not going to move to a playoff.

I could not be happier.

The idea of a playoff is a bad idea for college football. For a lot of reasons. But I want to first write about why people want a playoff.

First of all, they think it is more fair - things are settled on the field. That could not be more wrong. What is settled on the field? The only thing that is settled is that one team beat another. It does not follow that the team that lost could not have beaten on a more regular basis another team that beats the team that beat them, if you follow me. In other words, if Cal can never get by USC, and USC always loses to the Furd, and Cal always beats the Furd, then who is the better team? A playoff does not give you the ability to analyze that process. A true round robin schedule does give you the ability to analyze that more effectively. But because a playoff is a one and done, it is a poor way of selecting a champion.

I think that is important to remember. Many sports recognize this, and, like baseball, basketball, and the NHL, they have multiple games to try to fix the issue, so that a team on a hot streak or a lucky break does not get an advantage.

Frankly, this is why the NCAA basketball tournament is such a joke. Great teams, championship quality teams get knocked out each year before the finals. It is hard to say that since you lost one or two games in March that you are a worse team that the team that lost 10 through the year but got lucky that one day.

Playoff are not fair. So that is a crappy reason for having one.

The second reason people want a playoff is that it would be more exciting that the crappy third tier bowl games.

If that is the case, why are there going to be three more bowl games certified, so that every team who has a winning record, or who is qualified, will be going to a bowl game?

The reason is, of course, money. But it is also because colleges want their teams to end on success. Cal fans have been talking all since January about how great that Air Force game was -what a comeback. And it was. And we would have had a crappy end of the season (losing 6 of 7) without that bowl game giving us hope for the next year.

A good 25% of college football teams end their season with a victory in a bowl game, and alumni are happy, give a bit more to the school, and life goes on.

For the betting class, however, it does not have the parlay appeal that so excites everyone in March. There are no tournaments, no playoff fever. Thank god. College football is about your college team doing it's best, and winning what it can. This is a regional issue, not a national issue. Notre Dame thinks it is a national team, but it clearly is not in their best interest to play in a playoff format. They would be relegated each year to losing in the first round, if they ever made it. Their whole image would be in tatters - worse than it is now.

For most college football fans, the playoffs would occur without them. They would be in pre-set venues, with corporate sponsors taking all the tickets. You would not be able to see your Bears, if they ever got in. Just like in Hoops.

It was exciting to see Cal play Air Force in a crappy third tier bowl. We certainly would not have been invited to a playoff, and we certainly needed that win. And there are 25 other teams in the same boat. In a playoff, only one team end the season happy.

The final reason is that people want to see a champion crowned.

Why?

In a system that is patently not fair (there are only 12 gmaes - you need to have at least 20 for a statistically sound sample, and with injuries and such probably more), what is the benefit to being crowned the National Champion?

I think the way it works now is fine. The whole thing is a sham, so why not just let well enough alone, and crown whoever wins the one game people think is the championship game?

I, for one, will never be denied in my belief that in 2004, we could have beaten anyone (if only our receivers were not hurt), and we rightly should be National Champs. Who cares if I am right or wrong - the point is that my opinion is just as valid as any other idiot out there who crowns these guys.

And what about last year? There was clearly no team that deserved a championship, in the true sense. There was a team that won the title game. But they had two loses. No team was a clear champion. So why do we insist on having one? In the case of last year, they should have just said, forget it - no one wins this year. It was all a bunch of slop.


Here is how a true playoff should look:

All teams play in a 12 team conference. They play a full round robin tournament (11 games). Then, the winners of that play in a champions conference, and play a full round robin tournament (10 games). Then, the top two teams of that play a 5 game series.

I could stand behind that as being a fair way to crown a champion. But it is clearly not in the cards, and I frankly do not care that much.

I am excited if we can win the Pac 10. In 2006, we tied for first. That was great. That is our championship. If we ever get to a BCS title game and win, we will have won a game against another team, and won that trophy. But the true championship would be the Pac 10 title.

That is why college football is so fun - each week you get to talk about why you are better. And you never have to back it up.

GO BEARS!!

Final Draft Analysis

Well, I think the Bears did well. We placed 6 guys on the weekend, and I an pretty sure that the kickers will land somewhere too, in free agency.

SC put in 10 guys, and as I mentioned in an earlier post, 7 in the first two rounds. But beyond that crazy level, the Bears had the most drafted in the Pac 10, and the 4th most drafted in all of college football.

So it is not like we didn't have talent.

I also believe that if Nate had come out this year, he would have gone just about where Booty went - 5th or 6th round. He is NFL big, can throw, and although mobility is an issue, he has the excuse of this bum ankle of his. Although, after spring, it seems like he has a good shot at getting the starting gig back in the fall, if he can get his throwing muscle back. Tearing a Pectoral muscle can be a difficult recovery.

I think that if Forsett could have shaved two tenth's of a second off his time, he would have been in the second round. As it was, he was just another one of the 5'8" backs in the lower rounds of the draft, almost falling off the board. I think that the Seahawks got a decent steal - he is a good change of pace back and can do as well there as he did spelling Arrington and Lynch.

Robert Jordan did not get picked, and that is too bad for him. But he will find some work on a football team, maybe in the Arena league, or on a practice squad. He is just too small and not quite as fast as he needs to be for that size.

Mike Gibson landed in Philly - he is a good, versatile lineman, playing both sides on Tackle this year, and will be a guard in the pros. I think that will also help Desean out to have a teammate there with him (not that the WRs and the guards normally hang out together). But I think it has to help to have some anchor to the past with you.

All in all a good draft for the Bears. With Cal putting 5 to 6 in the league every year, that really has to open some recruiting eye over time.

GO BEARS!!

Titan Fan

I am going to have to become a Titan's fan.

First, they take Vince Young, who, although he was Longhorn, beat the Trojans. And I like that.

Now, they have taken Hawkins and Stevens. The Hawk in the fourth round. I guess the Tennessee game opened some eyes last year in Nashville.

GO BEARS!!

Draft Surprises So far

Desean fell to number 18 in the Second round, the 5th wide receiver taken.

What is surprising is that three of the wide receivers taken ahead of him are almost as small and slower than him.

So the question is, why did he drop so far? Are the rumor-mongers correct in that he is a Cancer? I think that is a bunch of crap. If that is the reason as to why he dropped, then it is ridiculous. The fact is that DJ is a very confident guy, is probably more mature than most of the players he played with in College, in that he understood it to be a business, and is going to be a good football player in the professional ranks. He is a hard worker, will do what is necessary to get to an elite level, and will work hard to keep it there. I think that the Eagles are lucky to get him. He may be just a slot receiver, but what an option. He will be single covered and will be the most explosive player on the field.

Also, it is kinda nice to be playing for a contender. Good for Desean.

The other surprise is Craig Stevens, going in the third round. Apparently some teams respect someone who can be another lineman and still catch passes. I think he has a long pro career ahead of him as well, as he is smart, and a hard worker. He goes to Tennessee, which is a team that needs a run blocking tight end, thanks to Vince young. When you have a QB who can scramble like that, it is nice to have an extra TE who can get some good down field blocking, and protect your guy. If my career was tied to Vince Young's, I would be pretty happy.

DeCoud also went in the end of the third round - not a surprise. He goes to the falcons, who currently have 5 safeties on the team - but only one guy over 6 foot tall. He should be able to get a foothold there.

The other item, not so much of a surprise, but I think good news for the Bears...

USC has had 7 players go in the first two rounds. All, of course, starters for their team. Including two in the top 10. Now, I know, SC always reloads, etc. But let's face it - that is going to be hard to replace. I think next year is a down year for them again. Frankly, this year was a down year for them as well. So it will only get harder to keep it up, Petey boy.

My other thought, at the end of the third round - whoever gets Hawkins is getting a steal.

GO BEARS!!

Stanfurd Hire

Well, back from a nice vacation in Mexico, to find that the furd has hired it's 12th choice as men's basketball coach - one Johnny Dawkins, formerly of the Duke coaching staff. Dawkins is a former NBA player, and has been the Assistant Head coach at Duke for the past 11 years.

It is no surprise that the Furd hired an assistant. Let's face it - they will not pay a coach top money (as clearly evidenced by the Trent johnson debacle). This is a disaster for the furd. And here is why:

1) They have just told the nation they have no desire to be a top tier program.
2) They have just hired a former Duke assistant, which everyone knows is like drafting a Tedford QB.
3) They have assumed that moving to Stanfurd is like coaching at Duke - academic school, top program. Wrong. At Duke, they respect basketball. At Stanfurd, they are ashamed of the revenue sports.

I harbor no ill will to the new coach - even though I have a general distaste for everything Duke, we beat them the last time we played, I believe. So I am OK with that. But this guy will be a rookie, going up against some pretty good coaches in the Pac 10. And if he does get good, then he is gone very soon - right at the end of the first contract.

I think that the furd has made a choice that they are not going to compete on the coaching level. They will roll the dice with some up and coming coaches, and will be a stepping stone as opposed to a destination. They will be happy to compete on the non-revenue sports for the Sears cup, and have a nice little middle of the Pac revenue sports also ran program.

That is fine with me.

GO BEARS!!

Monty to Stanfurd?!?

Well, it could be a disaster scenario.

Not that I think it is a possibility. But imagine. Trent Johnson is rumored to have accepted the LSU job, leaving the Farm after only four years. Smart move for him, since they will be doing nothing next year without the Lopez twins.

It seems that he was promised an extension after the season. It has not yet materialized. My guess is that he is not well regarded by the relatively new AD. So, he get's a little pissy, and leaves. After all, he did take that team to a number one seed.

There are two scenarios from the demented mind of the Cal fan:

1) Monty knew this was happening, and did not want to come back to the Cardinal - so he immediately took the first available job.

2) Monty knew this was coming, and he took the Cal job - only to get Bear Fans hopes up, just to dash them a week later!!

Oh the evil in the world.

Actually, in reality, this is all working out for the Bears. First, if Stanfurd is now a stepping stone position, rather than a destination (lets face it - the last two coaches have both used it as such - First Monty to Cal - his real, lifelong desire, and Trent to LSU), then it will be difficult for them to hire someone other than a young up and comer. I think that makes it harder for them to continue their pretty good run under Monty and Johnson. The administration there is just not supportive of the high dollars it needs to pay in order to be successful in athletics. I mean, just look at the last three football coaches.

And for Cal, it does become a destination. I have written before how important Athletics need to become to a Large public institution in times of declining state revenues. With the new head of the university from Texas, they certainly understand that relationship. At the same time, Cal in specific has been busy hiring, and more importantly, paying top dollar for quality coaches, and giving them support to win.

The top two paid state employees in California are Jeff Tedford and Mike Montgomery.

And, they get a pension.

GO BEARS!!

Steve Spurrier following in Tedford's footsteps

Here is a pretty good article about Spurrier sort of giving up play calling duties at South Carolina, on ESPN.Com.

Key comments are that for any head coach now, it is too much to try to keep running everything, as well as trying to be a head coach at the same time.

It is interesting that a very successful coach like Spurrier, who has called his own plays forever, is now transitioning to others. I think this is reflective of the changing nature of the Head Coach job. Bobby Bowden really initiated this, with the Coach as CEO mentality at Florida State. He was the Head Cheerleader, setting the tone, got the talents, but let his coaches coach and the players play. I think in the New Era, Pete Carroll probably does this best. He has done well with other coordinators - he is there to get the talent, provide the leadership, and overall atmosphere of the program.

It is easy when you love to be a planner and a tactician to not want to delegate those responsibilities. But it is just too much for one guy to coach the 100 players on the team. It just does not work. I think that is why so many coordinators are not successful at the Head Coaching gig.

I believe that JT is getting it. He still will be heavily involved, but hopefully can trust the new staff to get the job done. I really think that Cignetti will be the key for him. He is enough like JT that it seems like he will be comfortable with him. It never appeared that JT was comfortable with Dunbar, and that is not a recipe for success.

GO BEARS!!

Rumors about Montgomery

It seems like it is a virtual verified truth that Mike Montgomery will be coaching at Cal for the next 6 years at $10,000,000 per year.

I can't believe I just wrote that. He is the opposing coach that I have hated the most over the past 20 years.

First, some interesting observations.

1) Cal is willing to pony up $10,000,000 for a basketball coach. Still not in JT's elite status as the highest paid California State employee, but he will be second. Pretty impressive that we can come up with Jack like that. And which is why Jay Wright was also considering the job, since he is making about 1.3 million per year at Villanova.

2) The rumor has been out for 5 or 6 hours with no comment in either direction. Which means that it is true. But it also means that something else is going on. Because that is too long in today's world to let these things hand out there. I think those things could be

A. Deal needs to be approved by the chancellor / regents before being announced (we have the new guy from Texas running the show now). That could take some time, or

B. Monty is sticking his little worries and predilictions into the deal and it is gumming up the issue. Like, for example, his son is going to be the Heir Apparent.

I think it is likely to be A, but, just because I still do not trust the guy yet, I have a strong suspicion about B.

And that takes me to the other issue.

When I first heard about this earlier today, my immediate reaction was, Oh No!!! Anything but that. He is a Furd guy, and there is no getting away from it. I think those of us who went to Cal during the Joe Kapp years have a deep abiding hatred for the Cardinal that there is no getting over ever. I do not see that hatred in todays youth, and so I pity them. There is no way my children would be allowed to attend stanfurd, for example. I would rather they went to USC - at least if you are going to buy an education, have a decent football team.

Of course, the e-mail cycle began, and some of my so called friends called me a hater. And some defended me (my true friends). But after the initial shock has dissipated, a more balanced approach in my mind has taken over. And this is how I see it.

Monty is always going to be a Stanford guy. He will wear the Blue and Gold and he will do his best with the team, and he will get us to the tournament each year. And he will only have one contract. He will retire in 5 or 6 years. He is a hired gun. There is no doubt he is a good coach. Cal is paying him to coach and to get us to the next level. But he will never bleed blue and gold, like JT already does. And, frankly, like Ben Braun did.

But, that is OK, I guess. The kids need a better teacher, and Montgomery is a much better teacher than Braun was.

But I do have fear in my heart for their souls.

GO BEARS!!

While we are waiting....

It seems like all we are doing is waiting.

Waiting for the damn judge to make up her mind.

Waiting for Sandy to decide to fire Ben Braun or not.

Waiting for the short list.

Waiting for the new savior.

Well, I refuse to participate. I therefore am going to write about the Cal Football Team's spring opening.

Breaking News.... Nate Longshore took the field on the first team offense (according to the Scout article). Do we have a QB controversy already on our hands the first day of spring ball? Only time will tell....

Oops.

Well, how about those Bear Baseball dudes. They are pretty good this year. And track is gearing up for the Olympic year. Not that we have anyone who is really going to make it. Maybe in four years Alison Stokke will be getting ready to do that Pole Vault thing on the Big Stage. We just have to wait....

(As an aside, as a former Pole Vaulter, I can not tell you how excited I am that a Pole Vaulter is the new hot commodity on campus).

I was going to put my kid in the Cal basketball summer camp they have available on Campus. It's pretty good fun, they have a father's and son's camp. The only problem - no coaching staff is available, so things are on hold for now. So now my wife is nagging me about what to do with the kids in the summer, etc. Who needs it?

Let's face it - this has been a frustrating month or six weeks, or five months, or so. The Athletic Department needs something Right NOW to get us going. A High Performance Center, or a New 5 Star coach, or both. And soon, or else the collective hive head of the Bears will explode in a mess of recrimination and bitterness. Wasn't it much better the first five weeks after that Tennessee game? Things were just fine.

We need something. Soon.

GO BEARS!!