Cal and the Tournament

This has been a weird season. So far, it seems like we should be pretty happy with the Hoops team, but it seems like there is a lot of doubt, and a lot of worry about this team.

I think that comes down to something like this: Cal plays 12-2 Arizona State, Arizona and Stanford at home in the next three games. We have to win all of them, or we are essentially out of the tournament.

I know that sounds crazy. But let me explain.

Arizona State is a currently ranked 69 in the RPI (vs Cal, which is ranked 53). Arizona State has a pretty low ranking relative to their record due to their playing only four teams with winning records so far (and winning three of those). They also have played only one road game (and that game they lost to 6-9 Nebraska), and they did play in the Maui Invitational, going two of three.

So this will be the second real road test for the Sun Devils in an opposing teams court. Hopefully that matters. Because losing to a team that is ranked lower than you at home is RPI death. And this is a team at the beginning of the year that I was counting on for two wins against.

Then, we have Arizona coming in, which without Lute may be a team that we can beat twice. But we definitely need to win. Arizona, by the way, has an RP! right now of 7. They are a tough team. They did lose to Arizona State (on the road) and Oregon (at home). So they are beatable. But we need to come out on top.

Stanford is similar to Arizona. They have lose to UCLA and Oregon (who thought Oregon was that good?) but have a solid RPI at 39. Losing to those teams at home is not devastating, but beating them would propel us up the charts.

And, let's face it - we are going to have the toughest part of our schedule the second half of the Pac 10 season, with 5 road games. And Oregon State is not going to be one of them. So you are looking at 5 tough road games, and Washington and Oregon at home. I could easily see us losing all 5 of those games on the road. So we need to be perfect at home from here on out to have a shot at getting into the tourney. Losing at home is 1.2 loses according to the RPI calculation (just like winning on the road is worth the same 1.2). So home loses really hurt.

If the season ended today, Cal would probably be one of the two or three teams that would be debatable as to whether or not they deserve to be in the tournament. Generally, a 51 ranking would do it. But this is a tough season, and they are not going to take 9 from the Pac 10. So we need to protect the home, and win two on the road this season. We just got our first victory on the road at Oregon State. Not too impressive, but it counts. We need to hold at home and get one or two more on the road.

With students starting to trickle back to campus, I sure hope that there is more enthusiasm for these games than there has been so far at Haas this year. The place needs to be LOUD, especially for the Arizona State game.

GO BEARS!!