All I am asking is three of four.
We need to win the next three, in a row, to dance. That is not too much to ask.
If you care about the Bears making it, come out to Haas and support them. Because a split this weekend does not do it. The Bears need to come in at 500 in the Pac 10 to make it out. That is three of the next four.
Surprisingly, we are for of the last 6, so it is not as entirely out of the question as I had imagined.
Here is my scenario - we sweep the Washington teams at home. We lose to USC, and we go into the last minute with UCLA with the Bears up by 5. We lose by three.
We crumble in the Pac 10 tournament by losing to an overly competitive Oregon team. At least we get another shot at a home game in the NIT. Maybe Braun will get his second title!
You see, this is exactly what we have been talking about. There is hope, but it is dashed. And in the most painful way.
And enough about the game tonight. Anderson has another terrible game against Stanford - the Tribune outlined his ineptness against them this morning. But let's be fair here - we do not have the players to play against those guys. Sad to say, we do not have an inside presence. That is almost preposterous, but it is true. We have great skill guys, but no workhorses.
Anyway, three of four. That is it.
GO BEARS!!
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5 comments:
Given our mediocre non-conference showing, I'm not sure 3 of 4 gets us in. Maybe with a win over UCLA, if the loss isn't too bad.
I'm also not sure that a 12-seed should be something for Cal to be celebrating, but at this point, I'll take it, and I'll be rooting for 'em.
I think we would get in, just based on the total lack of quality teams this year, and the general quality of the Pac 10.
Here is how we would break down for the committee:
Last 12 - 8-4.
Away record:- 6-5
Conference Record - 9-9
Overall - 18-11
Projected RPI - 55.
Granted - that is borderline, but the last 12 and the overall quality of the opponents (4 wins among top 50 RPI teams) and no loses over RPI 100 would get us in.
I do think that we would be one of the last in. Also, I think it would be a case of the Pac 10 getting 7 in, with the Oregon schools and Washington as the only ones left out. That would be unprecedented. So I am not betting the house.
I think it is also important that the Bears win the first Tournament game to keep the even conference record in tact,
I meant our last 12 would have been 7-5.
Our non-conference RP! is 64, which is borderline tournament quality. While our schedule was ranked 161 in terms of SOS - in other words average - a 9-2 record out of conference is not bad. We lost to Utah - RPI 84 and Kansas State - RPI 37. We beat Nevada (RPI 81), Missouri (86) and San Diego St (67). Overall it does not kill us.
You're absolutely right -- 3 of 4 gets Cal to a decent record that is "borderline" tournament worthy. They'd certainly get consideration, but I still think it'd be maybe 50-50 whether or not they get in.
By calling our non-conference schedule "mediocre", I mean that there's very little on it to recommend us o the selection committee. No bad losses, true, but no great wins, either. Fact is, at this point, Cal has exactly 1 win (at Wazzu) over a team that will likely be in the tournament -- which is why I think beating UCLA will be important.
And you're totally right, a good showing in the conference tournament is essential. And no, I don't think a third victory over Oregon State (if we're the 7-seed) helps us at all.
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