Friday, February 29, 2008

BEARS STEP UP

Now this is a Ben Braun Team. When the going gets tough, when it is back to the wall time, when every game counts like the end of your life, this is where the Bears Shine. This is how they show the world we belong. Ben Braun certainly is a big game coach. The Bears out-hustled, out-toughed and out-classed the Washington State cougars in an epic 49 to 70 loss.

Yes, these are the same Bears that, last year, in a do or die for postseason NIT play managed to lose to the 7-22 Arizona State Wildcats 41 to 42 - on the same second to last Thursday game. Coach really knows how to get these guys up for it.

Let me be the 30,231 to say that this was the final nail in this year's coffin. I know that once again Ben Braun's will most likely have a 19 or 20 game win season. They will make the NIT and could do very well. But who cares. Really. Besides the poor kids who rely on this guy to coach them, to lead them. Besides the poor students who think that there may be something to this team - they are still young and idealistic. Besides the throngs of snack vendors and ATO student workers and the others in the Athletic department depending on a decent product being put out there each year. The Fans are growing tired. And that is a death knell for a coach.

I do not want to be a Braun basher. I know Washington State is a good team. But really - that was pathetic. This is finally the team that Braun wanted - a team like himself - full of good intentions, hard working at practice, good students I am sure. But there is no heart on this team and it shows. And it needs to come from the top. I do not blame the players one bit. This debacle falls squarely on BBs shoulders.

Sunday, February 24, 2008

Three of four

All I am asking is three of four.

We need to win the next three, in a row, to dance. That is not too much to ask.

If you care about the Bears making it, come out to Haas and support them. Because a split this weekend does not do it. The Bears need to come in at 500 in the Pac 10 to make it out. That is three of the next four.

Surprisingly, we are for of the last 6, so it is not as entirely out of the question as I had imagined.

Here is my scenario - we sweep the Washington teams at home. We lose to USC, and we go into the last minute with UCLA with the Bears up by 5. We lose by three.

We crumble in the Pac 10 tournament by losing to an overly competitive Oregon team. At least we get another shot at a home game in the NIT. Maybe Braun will get his second title!

You see, this is exactly what we have been talking about. There is hope, but it is dashed. And in the most painful way.

And enough about the game tonight. Anderson has another terrible game against Stanford - the Tribune outlined his ineptness against them this morning. But let's be fair here - we do not have the players to play against those guys. Sad to say, we do not have an inside presence. That is almost preposterous, but it is true. We have great skill guys, but no workhorses.

Anyway, three of four. That is it.

GO BEARS!!

Monday, February 18, 2008

Arizona State

Well, the Bears did beat Arizona State. They now have to go on the road to beat Stanfurd.

Let me put it this way...if they beat the Cardinal, I will take back everything I said about Braun.

But I do not think I will have to. They have an outside shot, but the Lopez kids are too tough for us. So that gets us to two final series - against the Washington Schools, and the LA schools to close out the year on the road. We would have to win both the Washington games at home, and at least the USC game on the road to have a shot the tournament, with one or two conference tourney wins. Or else sweep the Pac 10 tournament.

Right now, our RPI is at 77, which is too high to get in. You need to be close to 50 to make the cut. So any loss at home kills us - they are worth 1.4 loses. Any win on the road counts for 1.4 wins, while a loss only counts as .6 of a loss. So losing to UCLA and Stanford on the road will not kill us. Losing to Washington or Washington State at home will. Just like the Oregon loss did last week. In fact, if the Bears would have beaten any two of Oregon, Arizona, or Arizona State at home, our RPI would now be in the 20s.

Let me say that again. The two loses to Arizona and Arizona State at home cost the Bears 50 RPI places, and a place in the tournament.

Both of these games were winnable. The same can be said of the loss to Oregon.

That is how close the Bears came this year to not only getting in the tournament, but of having a top 5 seed in a bracket.

We still have a chance. The problem is, losing at home is much worse than winning on the road is good. The math just works that way for a winning team. So to really make a charge up the RPI we need to do both - win on the road and definitely not lose at home. Any home loss puts us out permanently.

Just something to think about as we go into the final three weeks.

GO BEARS!!

Saturday, February 16, 2008

Update

I have been traveling quite a bit this past month, with little time to post. That being said, it has been a tough time to be a Bear, and I have not wanted to say a lot.

First, we have a guy who drags us through the mud in a weird high-school brain cramp moment when he declares for the Bears on TV - without having the faintest conversation with anyone from the program. It was a little weird. Luckily for the guy, Jerry Glanville will probably offer him at Portland State. Freaks Unite!!

Then, our fabled signing day surprise certainly did - he stayed at Michigan, instead of pulling for the Bears. It gave our otherwise decent class a sort of missed opportunity feeling. We did fine but not great this year - reflective of our season on the gridiron.

But the biggest slice of cake in the depression standing for the Bears has to be the Basketball team. I can not tell you how good this team should be. We have all the talent that we will ever have. We have very good and even great players on this team. We have players who are going to be playing at the next level NOT EVEN STARTING AS A SENIOR!!! Yet, we can not get over the hump to win the games that we absolutely have to win. We have gone from out to in to out of the tournament, to so far out there is no hope. We have to win 5 of the next 6. Sorry guys, it just is not going to happen. Buy your tickets to the NIT.

I really feel like this has been one of the more depressing Basketball seasons ever as a Bear fan. Not because they are doing poorly - but that they are doing exactly as a Ben Braun team normally does - win one or two that they should not, and lose out by a few points in many games that they should win. It doesn't matter who is on the team, how many points are scored, how good our offense is. There are going to be games every year where we are just going to lose in the last minute each and every year because of stupid coaching calls, poor play, lack of effort, whatever you want to call it. The bottom line is that Cal is always going to be a team that rises to the mid level of the Pac 10 each year with Ben Braun as the Coach, no matter who is on the team. And that will get you in some years when the Pac 10 is down, but most years you will be sitting home in March wondering about spring football.

This is the first year where I really have become anti-Braun. I always liked the guy - I still do like him. And I think he is a good coach. And maybe all we deserve is a mid-level basketball program. But in years past, we never seemed to have a great team of players. So winning the few against UCLA and the occasional Stanford or Arizona victory was fun, and if we made the tournament, that was great. Hell, what else did we have - certainly not football. This year, though, we certainly do have the players. We just do not have the team to do it right. And that starts at the head guy.

The thing is, I think last year and this year are probably some of his better coaching years. Last year, he did a bang-up job of getting the team together with a host of injuries. Yes, we had a losing season, but it was not the total embarrassment that I thought it would be before the season. And this year, he finally seems to have been able to coach an offense. It is almost like he changed his stripes, and now, for the life of him, cannot coach a defense. It is weird.

Meg Whitman just quit at Ebay - she said 10 years is enough for anyone to lead an organization. Ben is at 12. When you are not improving each year at the coaching game it is time to go. And it is.

Now watch them crush Arizona State and win out the season. I would love to eat all the crow in the world, believe me.

GO BEARS!!

Friday, February 1, 2008

Ben Braun

They say that Ben Braun is a big game coach - that he can get his team up for the tough ones and elevate them.

Thursday night may have proved them correct.

I think, frankly, that this was the biggest game in Coach Braun's career thus far. He beat a top 25 team on the road in a tough place to play. Now, on any night, any team can pla poorly or well. But this will be a big win for the Bears come selection sunday. And if the Bears do manage to get into the tournament, this will have been the turning point.

And I do believe that, no matter what, if Braun gets into the Tournament, he gets at least one more year.

Here is why Thursday's win is so big. The Bears now have to win 7 of the last 11, not 8 of 11. And they have beaten a top team in the confernce - the number 2 team. I believe that to get into the tournament, they are going to have to get to a winning record in the Pac 10. That means that they will have to win 7 more games. Winning 6 gives them a .500 record in conference. The tournament committee does not look well on teams that do not have a winning conference record. So, if you combine going .500 with a possible first round loss in the conference tournament, then the Bears would be out. If they do win 7 of the next 11, they will have a decent RPI, because most of the games are on the road, and the Pac 10 has a great RPI. So the would be in. Also, the last 10 games are the most important for the tournament committee. Going .700 would be a good start.

I say 11 games, including the first game of the conference tournament. I think if the Bears get to 18 wins, and then win the first game of the tournament, they are probably in.

So what does that mean? It means beating Washington twice (including tomorrow), and sweeping to Oregon teams at home. It means going on the road to beat UCLA, USC, Arizona, Arizona State and Stanford - winning two of those five games. And then it means probably beating one of those last five teams in the first round of the conference tournament. If you win three of the last 5 conference road games, you can fold in the tournament.

If the Bears come into the tournament with only 17 wins, then they have to win at least two games. We did that last year, beating UCLA in a great game. But that is a long shot, which only gets us to .500 in conference games, and a losing conference regular season.

So, in other words, it means playing every game to perfection, and beating some teams that I thought at the beginning of the season we should beat, but now, it seems it would be a big upset to win.

But in any event, the Washington State game was a big victory for Braun. He needs to keep them coming if he wants to still be the Bears coach for much longer. The schedule only gets harder.

Go Bears!!