BCS Stuff

Ok - here is the deal. There is still a slim possibility for the Bears to get to the Rose Bowl, or some other BCS game. That being said, much of the luster has worn off of the Bears as a media darling (which they were three short weeks ago). So the odds of that are getting slimmer each day. But if we beat SC, we may get back in the media love-fest and some good things could happen in this the most unpredictable of college football years.

But there are also a host of other BCS issues which are rearing their ugly heads.

First, Oregon is going to have a hard time getting to the Championship game. There are really three teams that have an easier time at this point. Ohio State, which all it has to do is win out and it is a slam dunk. They currently are number 1 in 4 computer polls, and both voter polls. That makes them 1 in the computers overall and 1 in the polls, and 1 therefore in the BCS. LSU is 2 in the computers, although they play Louisiana Tech this week, so that may drop them a bit. However, if LSU wins out, they play in the SEC championship game, which is a big positive boost to computer rankings. First, they play a good team, which is good for the computer rankings. And second, they play a 13th game, which also is good for the computer rankings, because most of them are checking your winning percentage. And that goes up substantially each game you win. So having 13 games is a big plus on the computer side.

The same factor applies for Kansas. If they go to 13-0, they have a huge computer upside.

Right now, Oregon is 3rd in the computers. However, if LSU and Kansas win out, they may move up in the computer rankings, and Oregon may move behind Kansas. So what that means is that Oregon needs to impress the humans in order to move up in the rankings. They have three games left to do that with, but they have already played the toughest tests of the season. In fact, in these games, they can only really hurt themselves.

Meanwhile, Kansas plays Missouri and Oklahoma, which are good teams and will impress people.

LSU plays a Mississippi, Arkansas, and Louisiana Tech, which are teams they should beat easily. The only hope for the Ducks is frankly if LSU loses in the SEC championship game. That could easily happen. LSU is, I think, the most over-hyped one loss team. I think there are a bunch of better teams in the SEC, in fact. Like Kentucky and Georgia, and probably Florida and maybe even Tennessee.

That being said. if they win out, Oregon has a hell of a time getting into the BCS championship game.

But say LSU loses in the SEC Championship game. In fact, it is very possible that Tennessee gets to the SEC championship game and wins it. Then Tennessee would get the BCS game, and LSU would be scrambling for the second BCS berth (which they would probably get).

Even if that were the case, then Kansas would have a great shot at moving ahead of Oregon. If LSU lost, they would drop in the computers down to 6th or something. Assuming that Kansas wins out, they would most likely move ahead of Oregon in the computers, and have a very good chance of moving so close to the Ducks in the polls that they could get the bid. Remember, the Big 12 Championship game is a week after the Civil war. That gives the voters a reason to move an undefeated 13 win Kansas ahead of the Ducks.

Now, assuming that both LSU and Kansas lose, the Ducks probably go to the National Championship game.

But if they do not, who will they play in the Rose Bowl? I think there are three possibilities. The first is that Ohio State wins out, beats Michigan, and they play in the National Championship game. Michigan is out of the picture for the Rose Bowl, with three loses, one of them being a beat-down by the very same Ducks that they would be playing. If LSU is available, they get the nod. That would be a huge game - Oregon against LSU in neutral territory (because if LSU is available they would not be going to the Sugarbowl where they would be playing for the NCG). Pac 10 vs SEC. HUGE.

But, say LSU and Ohio State play in the NCG, then I think Oregon plays the loser of the Big 12 championship game, either a one loss Kansas, or a two loss Oklahoma.

If Michigan wins the Big 10, there is no doubt that it will be Oregon and Michigan in the Rose Bowl. Boring and repetitive. Poor Rose Bowl.

But what if Kansas and LSU lose out? Then Oregon plays Ohio State in the NCG. The Rose Bowl folks are pissed, but they signed on for this BCS thing. So, who would play in the Rose Bowl then?

Now, this is where it gets interesting for Bear fans:

If Oregon does go the the NCG, and Cal wins out, Cal will be third in the Pac 10, ahead of USC based on head to head competition. If Arizona State loses twice, Cal will be second in the Pac 10 based on the Pac 10 tiebreaker. There would be three teams in a tie for second place, all of whom have beaten one of the other (assuming that USC beats Arizona State). Because Cal beat Oregon, which is the highest placed team any of the three have beaten, Cal would win the tiebreaker and get the Rose Bowl nod.

OK - I know, stop smoking the crazy stuff. But it could happen.

Here is the deal - Cal can make the Rose Bowl, but does not hold our destiny in our hands. We are relying on the Trojans to win out, except get beat by us.

The other thing that could happen is that Oregon goes on a two game skid (QB with injured leg, anyone? Sound familiar? Just like last year with them and this year with us). We could win out and be tied for first or second. However, here is where it weird. If there is a 4 way tie with Cal, USC, Arizona State and Oregon for first place, here is how it would work. The team that beat the most of the other three would get the first tie breaker. That would be Cal and Oregon. Because we both would have beaten two of the other two, and only lost to one of the other two.

Then, they would look at our loses other than to each other. And depending on the position of those loses, we would win or lose the battle. It is possible in this scenario that our other loses would be to the same teams: Oregon State and UCLA (Oregon has yet to play them). If that were the case, then the final tie breaker would be who had the higher BCS rating. I can tell you now that Oregon would not have it if we were on a 4 game winning streak and they just lost to UCLA and Oregon State.

So we would have the unmitigated right to go to the Rose Bowl in that scenario.

Oregon, USC and Arizona State have their fates in their hands. If USC wins out, they will almost certainly go to a BCS game. If Arizona State wins out, they will almost certainly go to a BCS game. In fact either of those teams will probably go to the Fiesta Bowl if they win out.

If the Bears win out, we need help. It could happen. And this season is crazy.

So, there really is a reason to beat the Trojans, besides just hating their vile guts.

GO BEARS!!