Saturday Evening Recap

Cal opponents Maryland and Michigan State looked good today in victory against directional U and Notre Dame respectively. Otherwise, the Pac 10 continues to look poor, with Oregon losing to Boise State (and continuing their QB troubles) and ASU lost to a decent Georgia team, with only four yards of rushing total.

SC was Idle, as were the Bears.

Four top 25 teams lost this week, and Fresno State almost lost to Toledo on the road, but the rockets went for two in the second OT and missed, giving Fresno the game gift wrapped.

It looks like Cal is going to move up a bit in the computer rankings, and should get more than the 7 total votes in the human pools after last week. There are currently 28 undefeated teams (many are second tier teams that will not move up), and 5 teams in the top 25 with loses. 4 other teams lost this week. The question is what are the one loss teams that are decent - and Cal is a decent one loss team at this point, with us having played one of the tougher non-conference schedules. Our current ranking for schedule is somewhere in the lower teens.

I doubt that the Bears move back into the top 25 this week, but if we play well the next two weeks, i think we can make the top 25 with a 4-1 record, coming in right around 20. Many of the teams currently above us will start to play each other, knocking each other off. There are 5 SEC teams in the top 10. They all play each other many times. They will have two or three losses each.

The ones that we have to be concerned about are the BYU and the Boise States of the world. BYU and Utah play each other. I was hoping that Utah would lose today, but they came back to win in the end against Air Force. I am hoping that Air Force or some other team catches BYU down. They look good. In fact, I could see BYU getting into the top 4 this year if they run the table.

Boise State and plays Fresno State. I think Fresno wins. East Carolina loses today ruining their BCS chances.

In any event, generally the other team loses take care of themselves. If we end up 10-2, I think we have a strong shot at a BCS game. Especially if SC is taken by the NCG.

Here is how it could play out. BYU goes to Fiesta, against Oklahoma. Georgia and USC against each other in National Championship game. Cal vs Wisconsin at the Rose, Clemson vs South Florida at the Orange, and LSU at Missouri in the Sugar. I think that is a strong possibility if the Bears only lose to SC, in a strong showing at the Coliseum.

We would have to make the top 14, but I think that our computers would get us there (depending on how Maryland and Michigan State continue to do). In any event, we are not out of it - if we have a decent season, there is still hope to get to a BCS game. I do not think the Bears have a shot at the NCG, regardless of whether or not we win out, just based on the weakness of the Pac 10 schedule.

I do think every Pac 10 game is winnable for the Bears. In fact, I think they will be favored in each game after next weekend, except for SC. We shall see.

GO BEARS!!