Rankings

Just one year ago, we were ranked number 2 in the country, and 5 - 0. Then we lost in October, and that was that.

Now, we lost one game on the road to a bi-polar Maryland team, and we are barely sniffing the ranking chart. The coaches have us at number 25, the Harris people have us at 26, and the AP we are still on Mars.

The good news is this: Michigan State and Northwestern play this week. One of those two will lose, and more space opens up. I hope Michigan State wins out.

Oklahoma State still has to play Missouri, Texas, Texas Tech and Oklahoma. So do all of those other team have to play each other. So there are some losses to come.

Wake Forrest goes to Clemson and then Maryland.

Kansas has the same road as OK State. Starting at Colorado this week.

Here is what kills me: Ball State. Top 25. Get real. The toughest team they played and will play is Navy. These guys are going to ride a top 25 spot all year long, based on the worst strength of schedule. It does matter that you play crap teams.

It was nice to see Fresno State lose. Now they can beat Boise, and drop them out of the top 25 - and they won't improve much in the process.

Utah is ranked #9 in the current BCS standings. They are currently ranked #4 in the computers. That means they will definitely be a top 8 team if they win out. Likewise, BYU, if they beat the Utes, will be a top 10 team - maybe even top 2.

It is interesting to note that Boise, BYU and Utah all gain their reputation by beating middle of the road or crappy Pac 10 teams, but the Pac 10 gets no recognition for being decent enough to get them that recognition. I have to give credit to Utah - they did schedule Michigan and Oregon State. Both could have been loses for them, but they won both - squeekers both. But Michigan and Oregon State are not as good as they have been.

Also, similarly BYU played Washington and UCLA out of conference - two of the worst Pac 10 teams, who in prior years could have been tough.

It is like the Notre Dame athletic director has been scheduling these guys - picking the name just when you know they will be down.

There are a host of ACC teams (North Carolina, Georgia Tech, Wake Forrest) who will beat each other up. There is only one Big East team in the top 25, and only USC of the Pac 10, and Cal knocking on the door.

In other words, it looks like Cal has a good shot to gain about 10 to 12 spots over the next few weeks in teh BCS from our current 26 position if we keep our nose clean. That means beating BYE, which I generally think we can do. Also, going to Arizona and then defending our Honor at home against UCLA. If we do that, we will be top 15. Here is who I think we will be passing up in the BCS standings:

North Carolina
Georgia Tech
Ball State
Kansas
Wake Forrest
Oklahoma State
South Florida
Northwestern
Vanderbilt
Texas (they play Oklahoma and Missouri coming up)
Florida (loss to LSU and Georgia coming up)

Later in the year, Texas Tech plays Texas and Oklahoma. I think they drop there.

I think Missouri and Oklahoma are the best of the Big 12, and will remain top 10. I think LSU and Alabama the same for the SEC. Either USC or Cal will be there for the Pac 10. If Virginia Tech wins out, they will be there for the ACC. South Florida for the Big East, and Penn State for the Big 10. I think Ohio State loses again, to Penn State. The remaining top 10 at the end of the year will be BYU and Utah (until that final game) and maybe Boise State. Another SEC or Big 12 team could sneak in.

In other words, the Big 12 and the SEC this year are going to do what the Pac 10 has done over the past 5 years - eat each other up. So do not worry - a 2 loss Cal team will most likely be a top 14 team. A one loss Cal team will be top 5.

GO BEARS!!