Friday, October 2, 2009

Top 10 games / Picks

Last week, I was 6-4 straight up, and 4-6 against the spread. And I think I was pretty good, so...

On to the games of the week this week (hopefully I can get to 10 - most of the games suck):

Cal - SC: Bears beat the spread, and win outright (here is the golden rule - always take Cal and bet against SC - that is just good taste). Quite a bewildering game. The typical Tedford haters love to talk about how the Bears are crap, not that good, etc. That may be true, but neither is SC this year. They are down, one of their star players is dramatically and seriously injured, and they have yet to figure out how to score points. I think they are down, and so do a lot of SC fans. Meanwhile, the Bears are suffering under a barrage of "you suck" and are backed into a corner. The question is - do they fight, or do they flee? I predict they put up a good fight, and come out swinging. Hell, this is probably what the coaches have been planning on for the last two weeks.

UCLA at Stanfurd: UCLA supposedly has it all going for them at this time. I think they beat the Furds. The Furds are first in the Pac 10, beating what I think are the two worst teams in teh Pac 10. Then, they lost to Wake Forest. I think UCLA is not bad this year, and seems to have a stout run defense. If Gerhart can be stopped for, say, 150 yards, the Bruins should win. I take UCLA to cover and win. I think Stanfurd gets exposed. The good news on this one - whoever loses I am happy.

Oregon State at Arizona St: This will be a good test for Arizona State. Oregon State is it's typical early season funk. It seems that this year it is a bit more than in prior years. But they still have the Rodgers brothers, and that counts for a lot. I think they take Arizona State down. While somewhat impressive against Georgia last week, I am not sure how good Georgia is, and I do think that Arizona State is just not there yet. This is sort of a game that will show, for both teams, their level. I take Oregon State to win and cover.

Oregon at Washington State: I take Washington State to cover, and Oregon to win. While clearly a better team, I think the Ducks play to their competition this year. And so they are not going to cover by 33.5.

Oklahoma at Miami: I take Miami to cover and to win. Oklahoma has had good luck so far with the porn star as QB thing going, but playing in Miami, there will be a decent crowd, and the Hurricanes will be pumped up. This could go one of two ways: A close game where Miami pulls it out on Jacori Harris heroics, or a Oklahoma blow-out. In a close game, I think Harris is the better pick. OK has a history of losing close ones. In fact, Stoops could be the Big 12 Jeff Tedford. Same with Tressell. In any event, I have a feeling about this one. Miami to win and cover.

Florida State at Boston College: I think Florida State comes back from last week. They play better on the road, and this is a Boston College team not as good in years past. FSU is getting better. I take them to win and cover.

LSU at Georgia: Game where LSU gets exposed. I think Georgia runs all over them. They have been holding on by luck, charm and opponents fear. But Georgia is not afraid of them. They will go down and I see them losing about two or three more this year. Cal moves up a space. Georgia to cover and win.

Washington at Notre Dame: While I would love to see the Huskies beat these guys - just to drop them out of the rankings - it is not going to happen. But I do not think the Huskies get killed - more like a 10 point loss. The line is 11.5. I am taking the Fighting irish to win, but the Huskies to cover. Weis seems not able to win by more than 4 or 5 in any game anyway.

Wisconsin at Minnesota: The Golden Gophers are favored by three at home - meaning basically a push. I think they are getting some good support at home, and probably will do well. I take them to beat Wiskey buy more than three. Maybe that is a Cal homer position, but they were not bad, and they have a great receiver and good, senior QB. That is a good combo in the Big 10. I can see them winning 9 or 10 this year.

Michigan at Michigan State: Michigan State is favored by 3. What the heck is that all about? Michigan is decent, and State is 1-3, losing to ND, Wisconsin, and Eastern Michigan. But they did have a close victory over Montana State. Michigan has beaten both ND and Eastern Michigan. As well as the other two games they played. So what is the deal? The game is at Michigan State, and it is a rivalry game. But I think that Michigan is a pretty good team. I take them to win and cover. This is going to be a shootout. So it could come down to fumbles and interceptions, but I think that a Rich Rodriguez team always is much improved the second year, and this is no exception. The Wolverines could be going into the Ohio State game undefeated. Iowa and Penn State are both beatable, as is Wisconsin. I am taking the Wolverines to win and cover.

Bonus: Navy at Air Force: this is interesting this year, because Army does not totally suck. So the winner of this does not automatically win the Commander-in-Chief trophy. Air Force has better wins, but Navy has better losses. I think Air Force takes this one, even though it is at Navy. I take Air Force to win and cover.

Army, by the way, is favored against Tulane, and is looking for it's third win of the season. It is possible that they are bowl bound for the first time since 1996, and only their 5th bowl ever. I think, in fact, that they get to 7 wins this year. Over the past 12 years, they have averaged just slightly over 2 wins per year. In 1996, they were 10-1, and lost to Auburn in the independence bowl. This year, they will be back: If they win 6, they play in the Eagle Bank Bowl. If Navy wins 6, they play in the Texas Bowl.

Anyway, good luck with your bets this week. Let's try to beat 50%.


1 comment:

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.