Thursday, November 5, 2009

Where are we?

The Bears take on Orogon State this weekend, after enjoying a three game winning streak, and finally winning a come from behind game on the road - the first one of those in years.

In looking at the Pac 10 right now, the Bears have about a 2% chance of getting to a BCS game, so there is still some hope. In all likelihood, the Pac 10 will get both Oregon and SC into a BCS game this year, and the Pac 10 will for the first time in years have two representatives to the BCS. But the Bears still have the chance to win out and tie SC in the standings for second place.

In looking at the other teams in the Pac, it is interesting to note that Cal has played three teams with losing records UCLA, Washington State and Maryland (although, Maryland still does have a chance to win the ACC atlantic divisions...). Oregon has played 4 losing teams - including Purdue, Washington State, Washington and UCLA. Of course, the difference is, Oregon has also played 4 top 25 teams, and beaten 3 of them. Stanfurd has played 5 teams with losing records, and only two teams with winning records. Those two teams are the two losses for the season (they did beat 4-4 Arizona State). So, they also lost to Wake Forrest, who has a losing record.

Meanwhile, Washington has not played anyone with a losing record, nor has UCLA. Washington State has only played one team with a losing record.

Oregon State has beaten one team with a winning record so far this year - Stanfurd. Similarly, the Bears have only beaten one team with a winning record - Minnesota.

Both teams have done relatively well on offense, and have suspect defenses. Both teams really need this win. But the Bears need it more. Oregon State still has two games against weaker opposition (Washington and Washington State) as well as the Civil War remaining. The Bears need to win at home to at least guarantee a positive win total for the year. The Bears are sure to be favored in each remaining game, but not by much. The Bears are 7 point favorites this weekend.

This season could be a turning point for Cal. Win out, and match our best season win total in decades. Lose one or two and it is not so bad. But a total collapse could bring about real problems for the team and JT. I do not think that will happen. I think that winning on the road - we are 3-1 on the road this year, with two winnable games remaining - is great for the Bears. We generally do well at home, and I think we will do so again this year. But beating an Oregon State team which has won 8 of the last 10 against the Bears is critical.



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