Arizona State

Well, the Bears did beat Arizona State. They now have to go on the road to beat Stanfurd.

Let me put it this way...if they beat the Cardinal, I will take back everything I said about Braun.

But I do not think I will have to. They have an outside shot, but the Lopez kids are too tough for us. So that gets us to two final series - against the Washington Schools, and the LA schools to close out the year on the road. We would have to win both the Washington games at home, and at least the USC game on the road to have a shot the tournament, with one or two conference tourney wins. Or else sweep the Pac 10 tournament.

Right now, our RPI is at 77, which is too high to get in. You need to be close to 50 to make the cut. So any loss at home kills us - they are worth 1.4 loses. Any win on the road counts for 1.4 wins, while a loss only counts as .6 of a loss. So losing to UCLA and Stanford on the road will not kill us. Losing to Washington or Washington State at home will. Just like the Oregon loss did last week. In fact, if the Bears would have beaten any two of Oregon, Arizona, or Arizona State at home, our RPI would now be in the 20s.

Let me say that again. The two loses to Arizona and Arizona State at home cost the Bears 50 RPI places, and a place in the tournament.

Both of these games were winnable. The same can be said of the loss to Oregon.

That is how close the Bears came this year to not only getting in the tournament, but of having a top 5 seed in a bracket.

We still have a chance. The problem is, losing at home is much worse than winning on the road is good. The math just works that way for a winning team. So to really make a charge up the RPI we need to do both - win on the road and definitely not lose at home. Any home loss puts us out permanently.

Just something to think about as we go into the final three weeks.

GO BEARS!!