Friday, February 1, 2008

Ben Braun

They say that Ben Braun is a big game coach - that he can get his team up for the tough ones and elevate them.

Thursday night may have proved them correct.

I think, frankly, that this was the biggest game in Coach Braun's career thus far. He beat a top 25 team on the road in a tough place to play. Now, on any night, any team can pla poorly or well. But this will be a big win for the Bears come selection sunday. And if the Bears do manage to get into the tournament, this will have been the turning point.

And I do believe that, no matter what, if Braun gets into the Tournament, he gets at least one more year.

Here is why Thursday's win is so big. The Bears now have to win 7 of the last 11, not 8 of 11. And they have beaten a top team in the confernce - the number 2 team. I believe that to get into the tournament, they are going to have to get to a winning record in the Pac 10. That means that they will have to win 7 more games. Winning 6 gives them a .500 record in conference. The tournament committee does not look well on teams that do not have a winning conference record. So, if you combine going .500 with a possible first round loss in the conference tournament, then the Bears would be out. If they do win 7 of the next 11, they will have a decent RPI, because most of the games are on the road, and the Pac 10 has a great RPI. So the would be in. Also, the last 10 games are the most important for the tournament committee. Going .700 would be a good start.

I say 11 games, including the first game of the conference tournament. I think if the Bears get to 18 wins, and then win the first game of the tournament, they are probably in.

So what does that mean? It means beating Washington twice (including tomorrow), and sweeping to Oregon teams at home. It means going on the road to beat UCLA, USC, Arizona, Arizona State and Stanford - winning two of those five games. And then it means probably beating one of those last five teams in the first round of the conference tournament. If you win three of the last 5 conference road games, you can fold in the tournament.

If the Bears come into the tournament with only 17 wins, then they have to win at least two games. We did that last year, beating UCLA in a great game. But that is a long shot, which only gets us to .500 in conference games, and a losing conference regular season.

So, in other words, it means playing every game to perfection, and beating some teams that I thought at the beginning of the season we should beat, but now, it seems it would be a big upset to win.

But in any event, the Washington State game was a big victory for Braun. He needs to keep them coming if he wants to still be the Bears coach for much longer. The schedule only gets harder.

Go Bears!!

No comments: