Bears at the Sugar Bowl

Here is a dream scenario for the Bears, and a nightmare scenario for the BCS - how would you like to play at the Sugar Bowl this year against the SEC?

New Orleans at the holidays!!!

Here is how it could work.

The current BCS standing have the Bears at 29, but we are 26 in the polls (we are 30 in the computer polls with a .667 winning percentage). Our computer rankings will drop as we play more games - most of the teams have already played 10 times this year, while we have only played 9 times, which would translate into a 10% change in the computer rankings. That is significant - for Sagarin, for example, that would be a change in moving from 36th to 11th.

If we win out, we will probably be ranked in the 12-16 range in the computers on average. Based on the teams ahead of us that have to play each other, at least 7 will have losses. I predict that more like 10 to 12 will. Now, the Bears will not jump in front of all of them, but we will jump in front of enough to get to possibly 14 or 15 in the polls that count. With a little luck, we could get to say, 13. In any event, it could possibly be enough to get us into the BCS at large poll.

Now here is where it gets interesting. I assume that of the 14 teams that are in the at-large pool, 5 will be from the Big 12. 3 will be from the SEC. None will be from the ACC - maybe. The Big East will have none. The Big 10 will have two. And the Pac 10 will have two.

There are two scenarios where the Bears get into the BCS. One is where SC makes the title game, because Florida loses to Florida State or South Carolina but beats Alabama in the SEC title game, and does not get in. Or where Alabama loses to Auburn but beats Florida in the SEC title game. Both of those scenarios lose the SEC the title game.

The Big 12 will have someone in the title game. Whoever wins the Big 12 championship (which I hope is Texas Tech).

So if the SEC blows it, then SC has a great chance of getting in. Unless the voters want to see Texas vs Texas Tech again.

If SC goes to the NCG, the Bears would play Penn State in the Rose Bowl, or Ohio State if Penn State blows it against Michigan State. If SC does not go to the Championship game, then they would go to the Rose Bowl. And the Bears would be in competition with everyone else.

The second scenario is even more interesting, and probably more realistic (I do not think SC gets to the title game).

So here is how it would look. The Big 12 would be playing the SEC in the title game. The Fiesta would have one at large team. They would pick first from a pool of the following:

Boise State
Cal
Missouri
Utah
Oklahoma State
Oklahoma
Michigan State

The pre-set games would be:

NCG: Florida vs Texas Tech
Rose: Ohio State vs USC
Sugar: Alabama vs At Large (Second to pick)
Orange: Maryland vs At Large (Last to pick)
Fiesta: Texas vs At Large (First to pick)

The Fiesta gets the first pick. They pick Utah. The next pick would go to the sugar bowl, who would have the choice of picking the Pac 10 second place team, the Big 10 second place team, or the Big East Champion. They can not pick another Big 12 team. So they would have the opportunity of picking the Bears to beat the SEC champs second place team at home. Particularly if the other team is Michigan State, who Cal already beat this year. then, of course, the Big East team would play the ACC champ again in the Orange bowl.

So the final games would look like this:

NCG: Florida vs Texas Tech
Rose: Ohio State vs USC
Sugar: Alabama vs Cal
Orange: Maryland vs West Virginia
Fiesta: Texas vs Utah


I know it is a pipe dream, but there is a roadmap of making the BCS. All we have to do is win all of our games, and have a little luck in front of us.

Actually, playing in the Holiday Bowl against Oklahoma, Missouri, or Oklahoma State would be pretty fun as well.

GO BEARS!!