Prediction - Bears at Oregon State

This is totally out of my ass, but I think the Bears blow away the Beavers tomorrow. Something in the range of 45 to 17.

Here is my thinking: First, the 3-4 is a much tougher defense to run against for a small, shifty back like Rogers of the Beavers. Paart of his ability, like Justing Forsett, is that he hits the hole superfast, and gets into the backers and secondary. Having the down-linemen on the defensive side take multiple holes gives the defense - read backers - more time to fill those holes. He is a good back, but I do not see him getting over 100 yards. And if that is the case, then the Bears win. As long as the defense plays like they did last week (which, it seemed like they were having fun, and that is always a good incentive to play well) we hold these guys to 17 or less.

Also, I do believe that Riley will have a breakout game. Nate was injured (shoulder) so there is no looking over your shoulder. And it is his home crowd. I think he takes some chances, and shows off a bit. And that is exactly what he needs to do. He needs to take this team under his control, and at Oregon State is the place to do it. So here is to hoping that they do well, cover the ridiculous spread ( we are three point dogs - because Sagarin says so - more on that in a minute). I think that this is the game that changes the Bears fortunes for the next two years.

As far as the spread goes, if you look at Sagarin's Predictor rating, he has the bears and Oregon State basically even, and Oregon State gets the three points because they are at home. So it is a three point spread for the Beavers.

Here is the deal with that - Oregon State gets the benefit of losing to Utah and to Penn State. The Bears, meanwhile, have a loss to Maryland. So Oregon State's loses are better, and that skews the Sagarin ratings a bit.

Cal also has a problem, because the ratings have us barely beating Michigan State, which was a much bigger win than the score suggests, as well as losing to SC by 14, which was a much closer game that the score was. And in a short, 9 game season, those two games matter. The good news - when we beat these guys, we really move up in the ratings.

GO BEARS!!