After the big win today for the Bears - which I will post on later - the USC game is looming. But first, the rankings. I think the Bears will climb into the top 21 of the rankings (AP, BCS, etc) based on the victory today. Here is what there is left in the college football landscape in the BCS conferences:
There are 3 undefeated teams
5 teams with 1 loss
15 teams with 2 losses (including the Bears)
15 teams with 3 losses
Next weekend's games are:
1 game 0 vs 1 loss teams
1 game 0 vs 2 loss teams
1 game 1 vs 2 loss teams
1 game 1 vs 3 loss teams
3 games 2 vs 2 loss teams
3 games 2 vs 3 loss teams
1 game 3 vs 3 loss teams
so after next weekend if the lower loss teams wins all games.
3 0 loss teams
4 1 loss teams
11 2 loss teams
15 3 loss teams.
In other words, if people rank Cal as the worst 2 loss team, we will ranked #20. They have to rank a three loss team ahead of us to keep us out of the top 20 this week. I assume that we will be ranked 21 or higher. I have to think higher.
Also, if we lose next week to USC, I am not sure that we drop all that much. I think by the end of the season, there will be a three loss team in the top 12. Someone like, say, Missouri. Or Oklahoma, or Oklahoma State. LSU (who, thankfully will be coming up on their 4th loss this season next week).
Now, you have to throw in there TCU, Boise, BYU, Utah and Ball State. But BYU and Utah and TCU will knock each other out, or at least a few of them out.
The Pac 10 is interesting. Here are what I think are some of the most possible scenarios for the Bears:
1) Cal wins out and goes to the Rose bowl.
2) Cal beats USC and loses to Oregon State. Oregon State goes to the Rose Bowl.
3) USC wins out. Oregon State wins out. Oregon State goes to the Rose Bowl.
4) Cal beats Oregon State and loses to USC. USC goes to the Rose Bowl.
5) Cal Beats USC but loses to Oregon State, who loses to Oregon. There is a 4 way tie for first place in the pac 10. USC or Oregon goes to the Rose Bowl, because Cal's other loss was to Arizona, who is lower than SC loss to Cal and Oregon State, or Oregon State's loss to Stanfurd. Oregon and SC would have only lost first place teams. The rose bowl tie-breaker there is that the higher BCS rates team would go, and that would be USC most likely.
There are lots of other combinations - but the only reasonable way that Cal gets to the Rose Bowl is if we win out - we would keep our destiny in our hands. Cal and Oregon State have the only tracks in the Pac 10 for that to happen.
The other thing that could possibly happen is that the Bears lose to SC, and then win out. It is a slim possibility, but if Cal could get into the top 14, and if there are train wrecks all over college football, and SC goes to the NCG, then the Bears would have a shot at getting to the Rose Bowl. Looking at the numbers of BCS conference teams, there will be a bunch with three or more losses by the end of the year, and only probably about 8 or 9 with two or less losses. So there is a chance in this scenario.
GO BEARS!!.
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2 comments:
A correction on scenario #5: First thing you do in a 4-way tie is isolate who has the best record playing amongst the 4. So in this scenario:
OSU: 2-1 (beat Cal & USC, lost to Oregon)
Cal: 2-1 (beat USC & Oregon, lost to OSU)
Oregon: 1-2 (beat OSU, lost to USC & Cal)
USC: 1-2 (beat Oregon, lost to Cal & OSU)
So Cal and OSU "move on" to the next tie-breaker round, where OSU wins on head-to-head.
The "who lost to the highest place" tie-breaker comes after the above tie-breakers fail to determine a winner.
See my longstanding post on Rose Bowl selection for more details:
http://excusemeformyvoice.com/blog/?p=110
In other words, Cal pretty much needs to beat both USC and OSU to go to the Rose Bowl.
Finally, don't forget two loss Arizona who is the team everyone loves to forget this year and is pretty good IMHO. They have yet to play either Oregon or OSU and could do a lot to change everything by beating both those teams, something they're very capable of.
Yes, you are right - I was trying to keep the combinations in my head.
I also thought about Arizona - but they are going to have to go through Oregon and Oregon State. So say they win out - that leaves both of the Oregon's out of the picture, and then it is just Arizona, Cal and USC. If we beat USC then, we go. So that would eliminate Oregon from the picture. USC, Cal, Arizona and OSU would have two losses. Cal would be first out of that picture, with Arizona, OSU and USC at 2-1 vs each of the top four. Cal would be 1-2. In that scenario, USC would win out, because they beat Arizona and Cal, whereas OSU AND Arizona lost to Stanfurd. So Arizona does not really have a story at this time to get to the Rose Bowl.
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