Pac 10 Race

Here are the scenarios for the Pac 10 race:

Controls Destiny: Oregon St
Needs a little help: USC
Needs a lot of help: None
Can get into a tie, but odds are too remote to figure out whether or
not they could win the tiebreaker: Oregon
Eliminated: ASU, UCLA, Wash, WSU, Arizona, Cal, Stanford
Games that matter:

OSU-Arizona
OSU-Oregon
USC-UCLA


Scenarios:

OSU wins both: OSU
OSU loses either (or both), and USC wins: USC
OSU beats Arizona, but loses to Oregon, and USC loses: Three-way
tie between Arizona, Oregon, and USC, which will go to at least the
record against highest position in standings" level, which appears to
be TBD.
OSU beats Oregon, but loses to Arizona, and USC loses: OSU
OSU loses both, and USC loses: USC

The Bowls pick like this this year:

Rose - Champion
Holiday - second pick
Sun - third pick
Emerald - 4th pick
Las Vegas - 5th pick

I do not think that the Pac 10 will even fill the Vegas Bowl.

Here are the scenarios.

Oregon State wins out, SC goes to a BCS as an at large. They possibly could go to the NCG as an at large pick.

Holiday - Bears are third place team, with three conference losses. Arizona and Oregon have 4 losses and the Bears go to Holiday Bowl.

Oregon State loses to Arizona

SC goes to Rose, Oregon State goes to Holiday, Arizona goes to Sun, and Bears go to Emerald.

Oregon State loses to Oregon and beats Arizona

SC goes to Rose, Oregon State goes to Holiday, Arizona still goes to Sun (since they think they will get a better turnout) and the Bears go to Emerald

Oregon State loses to BOTH Arizona and Oregon

SC goes to Rose, Arizona goes to Holiday, Cal goes to Sun and Oregon goes to Emerald, and Oregon State goes to Vegas Bowl.

Guys - here is the big issue. There is only one game left between Stanfurd and a bowl game. I do not want those guys going anywhere. We need to keep them out. That means a big game by the Bears this weekend at home. Domination needs to be the word of the day.

Stanfurd is tough, but the Bears have the players to get it done if they come to play. That is going to be the issue. Coming off a hard road trip, it is time to regroup and win.

I am going on hiatus for a few days, as I am going on a 4 day field trip with my son to pan some gold. I expect to come back rich, and am willing to put all of my newfound wealth into the stadium project if the Bears win out the season. 9-4 is the Oregon State level. There is a big difference between third and 5th in the Pac 10. Coming back with 16 starters next year on the team, ranked in the top 25 at the end of the season, we can to a decent pre-season ranking and a little momentum. But we need to finish strong against the weak part of the schedule.

GO BEARS!!