Monday, September 14, 2009

Bears Roll On

Thankfully the Eastern Washington team was good enough to mildly scare the Bears, but not good enough to make a serious dent in the National view of their prognosis. Cal is averaging 55 points per game. That is what the folks on the East coast are seeing. And the ranking reflects that. the Bears are 7 and 8 in the Coaches and the AP. They are 6 in the very early BCS reports - current 4 in the computer polls. That reflects currently 4 Computers, which are wildly divergent as is appropriate this time of year. But the bottom line is that the Bears are going to be in the hunt for the rest of the year barring any catastrophe in Minnesota.

As a preview to the rest of the season, I spent a lot of time this weekend watching and re-watching some other games. And I cam away with a good feeling about the Bears. From the SC game, I loved the fact that God's Gift to Football was less than 50% on the day - but is being trumpeted as the next Joe Montana. Really. Maybe he will be one day, but get a grip. His team scored one offensive touchdown all day (I am not giving them the five three yard drive after the interception return). Ohio State looked like they had a decent defense, but I have to believe that it is really the same old Ohio State, but a newly reduced USC team. Matt Leinart would have had 35 on those guys.

Oregon looked pedestrian against a very pedestrian Purdue. They squeeked it out at the end. At home. I never knew what people liked about Masoli. I think we take those guys at home.

There are five teams that I am worried about this season. And they are not Oregon and SC - maybe I am stupid but I think the Bears take care of those guys. They are healthy enough and good enough to do it at this point, against those teams early in the season.

The teams that I have concerns about are, in this order: UCLA, Oregon State, Arizona, Stanfurd, Washington.

Let's start with the Huskies. We see them the last game of the season. At their house, which means cold and wet. They may be trying for a bowl berth, but I doubt it. They are going to be playing for respectability and a decent draft spot for Locker. The Bears possibly could be playing for a Rose Bowl berth or a national Championship berth. Either way, the onus is on the Bears to win, with nothing to lose for the Huskies. That could be a tough game.

Similar situation with the Furd. Down at the farm, late in the year, nothing to gain but pride. They could also be playing for a bowl game, just like last year. That may be incentive for the Bears to knock them out, frankly. But that will be a big game this year. Really.

Arizona seems to be much improved, and is a team that can either have a decent season, or a really bad season. In fact, a coaches get fired season. So it may be a bit of a stretch to worry about them. But they have a crappy schedule this year - they are on the road for their toughest games, starting at Iowa this week. They can either implode or get really good. I think their defense is probably pretty good. Cal get's them at home, so we should do OK, but they have the capability to do something pretty good. They are a top 40 team, which can be dangerous.

Oregon State - I don't care about how they start (even though they have won both of their games so far). The Bears get them November 7, which means that they are finally together and on their regular 7 game winning streak. This year, they played it smart and got by UNLV (barely) at the beginning of the season to get an extra boost. I could see them coming in 6-2, with a Pac 10 loss only to SC coming into Cal. That could make them dangerous. And we all know what happened two year ago at Berkeley when Oregon State came in for Kevin Riley's first start. Ugly.

UCLA - When the Bears go to LA to face the Ruins, they will be undefeated. UCLA has a decent defense, and they have Kansas State and Oregon at home, and Stanfurd away. I think they take those guys. Now, they do have a broken jaw on their QB, and so the absolutely stunning string of UCLA QB injuries continues. But they have other experienced QBs and I do not think they will fall apart. And, frankly, the Bears have not won in LA since JT has been our coach. It is either our year, or not.

All in all - all of these are winnable games. But they are all losable games as well. JT is embracing expectations, and so I think that this means that he is telling his players that they should win all of these games. Maybe that is the right mindset to break the streak of losing one or two per year that you should not. I hope so. The Bears certainly have the ability this year, more than any other at this stage in the game, to run the table. But it is not going to be easy. It sure should be fun, though.

GO BEARS!!

1 comment:

PaulDu said...

Interesting take on Cal's major threats -- though I think Washington even with Sarkisian is not as much of a threat as you think. Besides, Riley is an Oregon boy -- he should do fine in wet weather.