I know that the Oregon folks are saying "we win 8 out of 10 of these games". I do not believe it. Cal's defense played exactly as designed, and as I said it would. To wit:
1) Turnovers - Cal picked up 4.
2) Contain the QB - Dixon only gained 23 yards rushing and did not reach the end zone.
3) Contain the big play - Oregon was racking up two or three big plays per game for TD. They had none yesterday. They had one long play for 42 yards.
4) Limit the running game - Stewart was held to 5.7 yards per carry - still very good, but well below his 8.5 yards per carry against Stanford, Michigan and Fresno State.
While the Ducks racked up a lot of yards (but much less than they have all season), they only scored 24 points. That was an average of .0483 points per yard (Cal was .0775 points per yard). That can be compared to the duck season average of .0792. In other words, Cal held their offense to a scoring efficiency of 60% seasonal level.
The difference is that we have speed on defense that allows us to string the play out, come up with the big hits, and makes their playmakers average. I am not saying that our defensive guys are better than their offensive guys - Dixon and Stewart are great players. But certainly we are as fast as they are and can therefore keep them off balance enough to make the plays we need to. And if you are them, and you are used to being much faster than the opposition, that has got to be difficult.
Our special team coverage did great as well. A total of 45 yards on 6 kickoff and punt returns is fantastic.
While the refereeing left a lot to be desired (the field goal was good, by the way), the total yardage on penalties was 45 yards. That included the lousy call on Ezeff. There were a number of blatant non-calls on the Ducks, but so what, we won.
POLLS
As far as it goes, we are number three in all three major polls - The AP, the Coaches, and the Harris Poll. The AP is interesting - it has no bearing on the BCS - but it awards it's own national championship. So, this week, LSU and USC are virtually tied in that poll - USC is two points behind in second place - they split the first place totals 33 (LSU) to 32 (USC). One voter switch and they are tied for first. That would be very interesting.
As far as the BCS goes, Cal is currently in third place. We are third in both polls (the Coaches and the Harris Poll, which is what the BCS uses). We are 5th in the computers, behind South Florida (#3) and Ohio State (#4). Our votes in the human polls are enough to keep us comfortably ahead of Ohio State, as they play Purdue and Kent State in the next two weeks. Last week, our computer position was #10. Our total in the Coaches Poll was 1363, of a total of 1380 points. That means that 17 voters had Ohio State (most likely) or Wisconsin in the 3 spot. But we got 43 number 3 votes. Because we were 50 votes ahead of Ohio State, they received a few votes lower than 4th. So we are pretty good and solid in 3rd.
Frankly, I could see Ohio State losing to Purdue. I am not sure that Purdue and Illinois are not the class of the Big 10. I can also see LSU losing to Florida. It will be an interesting weekend next week, while we sit back, relax and watch Nate's ankle heal. Scuttlebutt is that it is a minor sprain and it should be OK.
I am also a little surprised that Oregon dropped so much. And Rutgers was lucky to stay in the top 25. Man, what a hammering they took.
South Florida is on the map, boys, and I think they look pretty good.
I just goes to show, one week does not make a season. Cal has a huge road ahead. But it is nice to think about how far we have come. It will be nice to get healthy, and to get a reasonable opponent at home for the game back, before we go on the road again against a very tough second half stretch.
GO BEARS!!!
3 comments:
Check out the AP link on the right side. Stewart Mandel of CNN/SI and Kirk Herbstreit, two of the analyst that I respect the most, both raised Oregon to #5 after the game Saturday, Most of the other nimrods who cover their local team, and then look at the scores, and never see a game from the west coast, took Oregon to town. They also gave a lot of love to South Florida, which I think is a very similar team to Jeff Tedford teams - fast, physical, and smart.
Your math is bad, the AP has an odd number of voters, this is done to prevent a tie. If one voter switches back to USC it would be USC 33 and LSU 32 giving USC the edge.
Actually, if one voter switched then, regardless of the number of first place votes in the poll, both teams would be tied for first place. What would happen is that LSU would lose one vote, and USC would gain a vote. Total change in votes - 2. USC is two votes behind LSU right now for the battle for first place.
The other interesting thing is that Cal was ranked #2 on one ballot, and #13 on another. In fact, on that Ballot, Oregon was ranked # 3. I think that was an error that will be corrected for next week. Therefore I would expect to see Cal's ranking move up relative to the competition.
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