Thursday, September 13, 2007

Cal takes on Louisiana Tech and other matters

Cal is looking for it's third win on the season taking on LA Tech at home. Normally, this is a gimme, but based on Cal's play last week, and the solid play by LA Tech vs. Hawaii last week, the boards are going bonkers with worry. I love Cal fans - gloom and doom every week. Kind of like Eeyore from Winnie the Pooh.

Here's my thing: Tedford worries enough for all of us. His little ball of pain in his stomach each week starting Tuesday is going to be enough to get us through. Not that he's wrong. Having your 2 million dollar salary resting on the backs of 18 to 23 year old college students is pretty worrisome. It is interesting that, unlike most University professors, the coaches actually have to get their students to perform. A history professor only has to give an F and they are off the hook. I guess that is why they pay the coaches so much compared to the professors. Many of the Cal faithful are worrying about Tedford moving to Michigan, or the NFL. He is not. What worries me is his health. The guy is not overweight, but I have to say he looks pretty stressed a lot of the time. Is this guy intense or what? I hope he exercises or does something to reduce his level of stress because it can be a killer.

But I do have to think that at this point, most of the guys are getting the idea that you are not given these wins - they have to earn them. I know Tedford called DeSean out, and he called the back-ups out. He went back to two days in pads this week. Derrick Hill seems to have gotten the picture that he needs to hustle to play. I think that this week has been good for the team.

In any event, there is a pretty good article in Sports Illustrated this week about college football parity. It highlighted TCU and Texas, but of course the article was about all D1 teams. The point is this - the big name schools are going to have some very good players and they may have depth. Other schools will also have good players - they may not have the depth that the top teams have but because the first line players are quality - they may be able to beat a top team at any given time.

In thinking about Cal, I sort of agree with that argument. Cal always had good players. We are in too good of a recruiting area and have too good of a University not to attract some great players. Holmoe was actually a pretty good recruiter, if you realize that Tedfords first few years were based on his players. Andre Carter, Jameel Powell, etc were not recruited when Cal was at the top of the game. And, while we have had few 5 star recruits through the years, we have had plenty of three star guys get into the NFL:. What we never had was consistency or depth. Now, I think we have depth. Certainly in the skill positions on offense we have quality back-ups for the next few years. So much so that we now have players leaving. We also have pretty good quality and depth on the defensive side. Much more than 4 years ago. And I think that we probably have some of the best coaching in the business on both the lines and the skill positions.

But when you think about Louisiana Tech, you generally think of a poorly run program. My take is they are probably like Cal was a few years ago - maybe not to the same level, but perhaps like Tedfords first year. Because it looks like they have pretty good coaching - a whole new staff with good recruiting ties to Louisiana. They have always had playmakers that have made it into the NFL - people who could not get into LSU!! -like Terry Bradshaw. Louisiana is a hotbed of high school football talent. They probably have good players in all positions. They may not have the depth of a Cal, but they could give us fits. They certainly have played well in both of their games so far this season. They will be tough against the run and they can score. I think our defense will be much better than Hawaii's on the road (5000 miles away from home!), but Tech has some good players. Probably in a few years, they will be a top 35 team, competing for the WAC title annually. Actually, from a pure recruiting perspective, it is kind of funny that Boise is so good. Hawaii, LA Tech, San Diego State and San Jose State probably have the best recruiting areas for the WAC folks.

I certainly hope we beat the spread. I do not think we will - winning by 5 TDs is a lot in todays game. I do think that we win pretty convincingly. I almost hope that we do not walk all over these guys because I think that will certainly solidify the feeling on the team that we need to be stronger each week. If you remember last year, we got hammered, and the we cruised over the rest of the early season, setting us up for the game at Arizona.

I think our Arizona this year is going to be in Tempe against the Sun Devils. I think we win this week, and then we crush Arizona at home in retribution. Then, the team gets really psyched to beat a top 15 Oregon team at thier house. That could be tough, but I think Tedford is ready up there. Then, a bye, and Oregon State at home, with UCLA on the road. Once again, Cal finishes off whatever Dorrell Streak there is by beating those losers in So Cal (although I think the Holiday Bowl was our first victory in So Cal since Tedford took over, so the streak may already technically be over). But after that huge win, with Washington State at home, and USC coming up after, the Bears are going to have a tough one at ASU. Or, even worse, beating USC at home, and then losing to UW in Seattle. Ugg. That would be horrible.

Anyway, point is, the Bears have all of the talent and the coaching to go all the way. They needs to be ready each week because, besides Washington, I think we have the toughest schedule in the conference, with UCLA, ASU, Oregon and Washington on the road (leaving out Stanford because, that really is no longer a big game).

That being said, I hope the Bears crush this week, and we get 750 yards of offense. But let's not kid ourselves - these guys are not the crap they used to be (and even then they beat us - thanks, Tom).

3 comments:

Hodad254 said...

A few minor points:

- You talk about stress as if it is a bad thing. Stress and pressure are what drives progress and performance. Trust me, I know.

- LaTech may already better than people think. Don't let the 33 pt spread fool you. That is just to even out the betting. As mentioned, it would be a miracle if we win by 5 TDs. Their OL is HUGE...our DL is small but fast. They are going to get rushing yards in the first half, with the LBs having to help out. We will then give up at least two big pass plays. I predict half time score of 21-14, Cal. The second half will be ours because we will have adjusted to their size and have the depth. We win the game 42-28, but give up 175 yards rushing and 300 yards passing.

- Arizona game will be tough. Retribution is one thing going for us. However Stoops understands how to bring defensive pressure on the QB and that means that Longshore will not be effective and will turn the ball over at least twice.

JP said...

I am a Tech fan. We've never played well in California, so history says the probability of a blowout is good. However, the Bulldog fanbase loves our new coach and with good reason. I think he will correct the "team management" errors that contributed to playing flat on long road trips.

That being said, Cal is a tremendous test for us, especially coming off of a heartbreaking loss vs. Hawaii.

I think the game will be closer than Cal fans want, and I certainly don't think the Golden Bears cover. But let's just say I'm not going to bet on it ;)

Cause for concern: one of our starters at WR (Wheeler) and our RB (P. Jackson) are dinged up...if they are able to play, they won't be 100%.

Good luck, and may the game be well-contested and injury free!

P.S. I'd be shocked if we throw for 300+ yards.

Oski88 said...

Joe - Congratulations on being our first foe poster - and leaving such a nice post.

I disagree with Hodad when he says the bears will give up 300 yards passing as well. i think that Tech's best option is to wear out our defensive line with a running attack, and trying to keep our defense on the field. Hopefully your running back will be relatively healthy, otherwise I see the Cal offense using up clock and putting a lot of points on the board. Cal generally has a quick strike offense, so we generally lose in time of possession battles, and our dfense does give up a lot of yards as a result. However, (unitl the last two weeks) we have generally been pretty good at holding people to low scores - to the degree that Cal has an almost unbeaten record when we have held opponnents to under 20 points under Tedford.

I know your coaches have a lot of respect. I think that they are going to be good for your school. I really do think that LA Tech could be an up an coming program a la South Florida. There is a strong move toward parity, and while I hope that this is a blowuout for Cal I would not be surprised if there is not.

Your comments about your running back sort of prove my point, though. If our starter was out (and he may be due to his back stinger, or may at least have fewer carriers than usual), we have very high quality backups. I know that your running back is good. But the depth issue could be a problem.