Rose Bowl Bound

No - not the Bears. But it is looking increasingly like the Pac 10 champ will be Rose Bowl bound. Even if it is a perfect 12-0 Arizona State.

I did not think this possible earlier in the season. But the voters have Arizona and Oregon firmly behind Ohio State, Boston College, and one-loss LSU. Based on the poll here, and on my observations, I think that Oregon and LSU are probably the two best teams in the country. But Ohio State and Boston College could win out and make the Championship game without clearly being the best.

And do not say that a playoff would fix this - no one can tell me Colorado was the second best team in baseball, either.

But without these controversies, there would be no blogging, so...

Anyway, I think we can firmly plant the nail in the Bears coffin for a BCS game, although technically they still have a slim mathematical chance. For the Pac 10, it could be mass suicide and therefore impossible to get two teams in (which would cost the Bears $450,000 in BCS revenue for not getting the second team in). Now you know what the SEC feels like.

Here is how I think it shakes out:

Cal wins out, gets to 9 victories. We are not great, but we are not as bad as we have been playing, either.

Arizona State loses this week to Oregon. Besides the fact that Oregon is the better team, and team that tears down the goalposts after beating a team ranked 17 slots below them is not going to win many more. I think they also lose one more, going 10-2 on the season.

Oregon wins out, or else loses Oregon State, going 11 - 1 or 10-2.

I think Oregon State has a chance to win out. They still play USC and Oregon, so that is stretching it a bit. But they also have a very good defense and if they do not turn the ball over, they are very strong. USC is not all that, and Oregon at the end of the season will have a lot of pressure on, and they will be possibly playing to go the NCG. So that is a good time for them to lose.

USC I think loses to Cal and to Oregon State. I think they lose 4 games this year. That may be wishful thinking, but I think pretty realistic.

UCLA loses out. They do not have a QB who can walk. That poses a problem. They may squeek it out this week at Arizona, but they are dying out there. So they go 6-6 on the season, and Dorrell gets a 5 year extension.

In this scenario, I can not see more than Oregon getting the ticket to a big game. The interesting thing is that if Ohio State make the National Championship game, the Rose Bowl would be in the hazardous position of selecting the second place Big 10 team - or Michigan. That sounds familiar, doesn't it? I am not sure they would do that. But if they did, that would be fun to see. I could actually see Oregon crushing them, and then Ohio State winnning the NCG against Boston College. I could see the AP voting Oregon National Champs, depending on what happens to LSU. It would be even better if LSU went to the Rose Bowl - if the Ducks beat them, they definitely would have the share of the National Champ title from the AP.

See how fun it is now that your team is done? You can think about all sorts of crazy things again. I can ski over the winter break and not worry about how I was going to get the New Orleans, what to do with the kids, etc.

The sad thing is, in my scenario, the Bears could still be third in the Pac 10, with one or two teams ahead of us going to the BCS games, and the Holiday Bowl would still pick USC over us. And there is no way I am going to El Paso (although I would be happy to drive over the bridge to see the Bears in SF).

But it would be nice to finish over both SC and UCLA. So there is still plenty to play for.

GO BEARS!!

What Happened?

Four weeks ago, Cal was averaging 37 points per game. Three weeks ago, we score 28 against Oregon State. Last week, we score 21 at UCLA (who lost to Washington State today). Today, the offense scores 13 points.

Our offensive production went from averaging 437 per game to 287 last week and 358 today.

The Bears went from a team that was number two in the country to a team that will be lucky to beat the Cougars next week.

The Bears went into a bye week, and they came out a poorly performing football team. There are a bunch of injuries. But everyone has injuries - Arizona State lost their starting running back this week. I think they started to read the PR that the Cal football office puts out. They are no longer an elite, ranked team.

Today, the Wildcats had the ball 78 plays. Once again, the Bears wasted opportunity after opportunity. They missed ANOTHER field goal. The threw two interceptions in the fourth quarter. They had 10 penalties for over 80 yards, and plenty at inopportune times.

They look like a team that has no discipline, that is unsure of themselves, and that is looking for leadership.

And I think that starts at the top. Jeff Tedford needs to make the hard choices. And that is to bench Nate Longshore, and to start Kevin Riley. Nate is still injured, is still unsure of himself, and is not dynamic.

Arizona State is a good team, clearly. They have the inside track on the Rose Bowl and they have a strong coach. One who is not afraid to go for it three times in a row on 4th down. Not try to draw someone offside on 4th down, but actually go for it. The Bears need to get there, and we are not. Dare I say that Arizona State has surpassed us? I don't think so. This is, I guess, a rebuilding year (at least I hope it is).

Frankly, there were some good performances. I think the defense did a good job today. 95 yards in the first half is pretty good. But They were on the field almost twice as much as the Cal offense, and clearly worn out in the 4th quarter. You can't trot your defense out there the entire 4th quarter and expect to win. The offense has to do something. Cal had a lot of great offense. But they did not put drives together. Cal actually averaged almost 6 yards per play, vs Arizona States 5 yards per play. But Arizona State had 78 plays to Cal's 61. That means that Cal failed often when it mattered. We were three of 11 on third down, vs. Arizona State's 9 of 19. If you add their two fourth down conversions, they were 11 of 19. So we failed when it mattered, and they did not.

Missed field goals, penalties, and turnovers. Once again, for the third week in a row, we gave the game away. This week, I felt like we needed to really play mistake free to win. We did not and we lost big. They played relatively mistake free, and they won. In the second half, we gave the game to the Wildcats, reversing the first half statistical domination by the Bears, by giving the Wildcats the ball for 23 minutes of the second half. The Bears only got 89 yards because we passed the ball to the other team.

The question is, why do we fail when we do? I think it is something to do with the changing way that teams are defending us. People are playing us for the run, and giving up the pass. So our run production is dropping, and while the passing is OK statistically, it is not there when we need it. Nate is a great manager of the game from a statistical point of view - he connects for a relatively high percentage (although only 50% today). He puts yards on the board. But he does not connect when he needs to, and that is a function of how he is taught. For example, if there is double coverage, he will definitely not throw. He throws away. But he does not make something happen. And I think the defensive coordinators are looking at Nate, and thinking, I am willing to let that guy try to beat me, and I bet he can not. And he can not do it.

Nate is good in general, but not good in the pinch. This is becoming more and more clear. And I think that if he continues, the Bears will have a tough time winning as we continue through the season in close games.

Nate is 15 and 5 in the games that he starts. All 5 loses are away. Almost all of the victories were large leads going into the 4th quarter. We can not come back with Nate. We need to lead by more than a score going late in the game to be secure in this game. He does not have the killer instinct. I do not know if that is the line not giving protection, or what. But in the last two weeks, Nate had thrown 4 picks in the 4th quarter. That is no way to win.

Anyway, the Bears once again gave away a winnable game by not converting opportunities, by trowing the ball away, and by hurting themselves with penalties. We need to change that, or this will be another Marriucci season.

GO BEARS!!!

Cal Fan Issues

I have some issues with being a Cal fan.

First of all, I am sure that I lost both of the last two games for the Bears. I wore the wrong socks to both games.

Not only that - I was stupid about it. I wore the wrong socks to the Oregon State game. As soon as I saw Riley making the biggest mistake of his young life, my first thought was - why is he trying to kill me. But I immediately refocused on what I had done to make him that stupid - and clearly it was that i had worn the wrong socks. I knew as I put them on that morning that they were untested in battle. Everything else I had on was undefeated. The socks were new, and that clearly was the difference. I felt bad for letting down the team.

Later in the week, of course, I realized how silly that was. We were still in the picture for the National Championship game, we were still in the hunt for lots of big time bowl games. Really, what could I have done? Nothing. I have nothing to do with it.

So to prove a point, in a game where we were clearly going to win, I wore the same new socks again at UCLA. On purpose. To prove a point to myself.

My agony of being the instrument of death for the Bears this week is, well, unbearable. To all true Cal fans, I apologize. I am going back to my standard Champion costco socks, my Oski Boxers, khaki shorts and Cal Coaches shirt. Note - I rotate all of my hats equally. I would hate to have a hat determine the National Championship game. Socks are bad enough.

Go Bears!!!

Cal vs Arizona State

This is an interesting match this week. For both teams, I think it is a pivotal game. The Bears are in a must win situation if they want any hope of playing in a BCS game. They need to win each game from here on out - which will be very tough. They have lost two games - both of them winnable in the last drive, where the Quarterback has made poor decisions.

Arizona State, on the other hand, has won all of it's games with some ease, although against some much weaker opponents. The three toughest tests so far for the Wildcats have been Colorado (who did beat Oklahoma), Oregon State (who beat Cal) and Washington State. They played fairly poorly against Colorado, but still had the wherewithal to win easily in the second game of the season for them. They also beat what I think is a pretty decent Oregon State team, when Canfield (the OSU QB) threw 5 interceptions after bringing the Beavers to a 19 point lead in the first quarter, and a 26 - 13 lead late in the third quarter. The final score was 44 to 32, and the Beavers gave the game away. They squeeked out a win at Washington State 20-23 - rushing 45 times for a 1.8 yard average. That is worse than Cal last week at UCLA. Statistically, they are very inconsistent. Carpenter has a averaged a pick per game.

So both teams can have issues. The difference is that Arizona State has won their games, and the Bears have let two games get away from them. The Bears have also played and beaten more accomplished teams this year - like Oregon and Tennessee.

There is a lot of discussion about how Tedford has never lost three in a row, how we have owned Arizona State over the past few years, how they always fold at the end of the season. All of those are silly at this point. The real issue is, who is the better team, and how are the team playing right now.

I would bet that Erickson has his team pretty loose now - they are pretty happy, number 4 in the land. But this week, there is real pressure for the first time this season. Clearly, Erickson is a good coach. And clearly he is a good strategist. He does not lose his cool. On the other hand, the Bears are kind of up against the wall. They have to win. They also have some pressure.

The difference is that this is an experienced Cal team. I hesitate to say that after the last two weeks. But it is true. And that experience comes from going to Oregon and winning, going to Tennessee last year, playing in the Holiday Bowl and kicking ass. They have played in a lot of big games recently. And they have been successful. In fact, I would say that the games that they have looked the best over the course of the last year have been in the big games. This year, Tennessee and Oregon were better than Colorado State and Arizona. What the Bears have shown is the propensity to drop down for less than big games, and get taken to the cleaners, like they have done in the past. It is unknown how Arizona State will handle the pressure. Under Koetter, of course, they would fold like a house of cards. Erickson is probably different. I am thinking it will be more like a sandcastle at the beach.

Arizona has been a big play team this year - if we can hold them to long, sustained drives they will make mistakes and turn the ball over. I know that is advocating for Gregory's bend but don't break defense. I think in this scenario it will work. We do need to pressure the QB more than we did the last two weeks. This is particularly true since the starting running back is out for them, and Carpenter (their QB) makes mistakes. If we can pressure them, we may be able to blow this open.

The good news is that the Arizona State defense is not that good. We should be able to score very well against them. I think we will put up a lot of points. I also think that we hold them to under 30 with Torain out for them. I predict a score like 45 to 30 give or take a two points in either direction. We have struggled offensively when we have not been able to run, but that is not the case here - we should be able to run and pass on them.

The bottom line - if the Cal team that we know should be playing this year shows up, we win easily. If we have the team that looks lethargic and uninterested, like they did against UCLA, then we lose. I hope the coaches make it fun this weekend down in Tempe - the kids should have fun and get a great win for the program. Arizona State is looking at the final 5 games of their schedule with dread - Cal, UCLA, Oregon, USC and Arizona. That is a tough stretch. They know it. The pressure of the top 4 ranking in the BCS is a lot of pressure. They know it. I think they give one up. They are not experienced to win in these situations and the Bears have been. After the last two weeks, this is a test for the Bears, where they have to look inside themselves and prove that they are the players they think they are.

GO BEARS!!!

UCLA Recap

I have been traveling so I have not had time to rewatch the UCLA game. However, here are my thoughts based on being there and some statistical analysis.

First, I think everyone has agreed that the playcalling has been a little conservative. Jeff Tedford has somewhat defended his play calling, confirming that the loss was an execution loss, not a strategy loss.

Similarly Gregory indicated that the defense was not going to make changes, that the defense was fine, that we needed to be better at what we do, not change what we do. In fact, he kinda called out his guys, saying that they needed to play with more passion. I agree. They certainly did not look like they cared they were losing last week. Sometimes that is good - it is called confidence. But sometimes that is bad and indicates a lack of caring. I guess winning and losing sort of defines whether it is good or bad.

Clearly the game is a different outcome with no turnovers for the Bears. Once again, the key blunder of the game was a boneheaded play by the QB which changed the outcome and lead directly to the defeat. When you rely on 20 year old players to take you to the National Championship game, you are going to be bitten quite often. And JT does rely on his QB for a lot of the offense to work correctly. I think that is a blessing and a curse with him. He is a former QB who builds his offense around the current QB. Nate is a passer, and therefore he has build the offense around a traditional run-run-pass format which does not always work. It is a bit old fashioned, and good traditional defenses can sometimes stop you.

We do have tremendous other talents that seem to be going to waste. At the beginning of the game, JT would put in Best to go outside, and Forsett to go inside. It seemed like JT was really concerned about running, and wanted to ensure that we could get outside quickly, so he went with our fastest player. I think that was a good move. But we went away from that after the first quarter (Best did fumble). But probably a better move would have been to have a lot more passing more consistenly thoughout the day.

For example, the second drive, where we went straight down the field was almost exclusively pass plays. So he was trying to set up the run based on his passing. But passing works when you do it consistently. For example, you can not only pass on 3rd down. You only make 2 of three 3rd downs when your passer is getting 67%, like Nate did on the day. You need to pass on first and second and third down to move the chains. And, after the first score, we did not do that. JT felt he had loosened up the defense, so he was going back to establish the run.

The thing about it is, when you are effective passing, it moves the backers down field, it opens up holes. If you get 8 yards on a first down pass play, you have a lot more options on second down. By we more often than not were in second and 8. Running on second and eight is not a recipe for a successful third down. During the game, when the Bear passed on first down, they scored (or else missed the field goal). The times when the Bears consistenly ran on first down, we failed to connect.

This held true even when the pass on first down was incomplete. When the Bears were in a passing rhythm, they scored. When they were beholden to running the ball, they failed to score.

Well, guess what - UCLA has a good defensive line. We knew this. It was going to be a problem running against them. But if they are pass rushing every down during the first quarter, they are going to get tired. They aare struggling to go uphill, as opposed to just holding thier ground. So when we need to run out the clock in the third quarter, they are tired, and our offensive line, who has just been trying to hold them back all game, now has some energy to push them down the field against a tired defensive line. That is how we win games in Tedford's tenure. And that is what we did NOT do on Saturday.


That being said, we were still only ten yard away from winning the game on an easy field goal. JT put Nate in a terrible position by only putting two wideouts with 4 DBs on them on the left side on third and 10 at the 34. We needed yards. So Nate had to force the pass. What Nate should have done is called timeout and gone to the side to talk about it. It was a terrible set - we had 8 guys in to block the pass rush, and only two out left. They had 7 guys rushing and 4 out on the wideouts. So it was a recipe for disaster, and disaster struck.

There is no reason not to call a timeout in that situation. That should have been seen by the coaches and they should have called it. Oh well.

I am not going to comment on the defense. It is not pretty to watch, and it gives up a lot of yards. But, frankly -they only gave up 23 points on the day. We should have won that game if the offense was working properly. It was not, and so we lost.

We still have a lot to play for and I think we will be in the hunt at the end of the year for the Pac 10 Championship. Lets see how this weekend goes.

GO BEARS!!!

A little light at the end of the tunnel

In reviewing the rankings, schedules, and other predictions, it is clear that Cal can still make the BCS and possibly the Rose Bowl.

I think the only thing that happened this week was that Cal was dropped from National Title consideration.  Had we won, we would have been in the top 7, most likely.  Beating Arizona State would have probably brought us into the top 5 or 4.  We would have been back in the thick of it, going into the USC game.  That would have been fun.

Now, we need others to lose.  Frankly, the top teams in the conference, UCLA, Arizona State, USC, Oregon and Cal all have the ability to win the league.  And all have the ability to face plant.  The race is on in the last 6 weeks of the season.  The only team that has played two of those top teams is Cal, and we are 1-1 (UCLA and Oregon).  We play USC and Arizona State. USC looks beatable this year, and Arizona State has been untested for the most part.

Arizona State must beat the Bears, USC, UCLA, Oregon and their local rival, Arizona.  I can see them losing two of those games.

Oregon must still play Arizona State, USC and UCLA.  I can see them losing one of those games.

UCLA must play USC, Oregon and Arizona State.  I can see them losing two of those.  If there is anyone with the inside track, I think it is UCLA, though.  Wouldn't that be a hoot.  If they win the Pac 10 do we all of a sudden think this was not such a bad loss?

UCS must play at Cal, at Oregon and at Arizona State.  They also have UCLA at home, and Oregon State.  I think that is a pretty tough schedule.  I can see them losing another one - to Cal - at least.  Probably two more.

Assuming Cal does win out (beating ASU, USC and Oregon in the process), they most likely will be Pac 10 champs.  We need ASU to lose one more, and UCLA to lose two more.  Based on that scenario, Cal would get the nod to go to the Rose Bowl, based on the tie-breaker.  This assumes that UCLA is not the only other 7-2 team.  I can see three or even 4 this year.  Cal beating three of the top 4 would be a good place to be in that tie-breaker scenario.

This would be like when Stanford went to the Rose Bowl back in 97 or 98.  The Pac 10 sucked then - now it is because everyone is good.  But in any case, there was a lot of parity.  A 7-2 team can go.

I do not want to hear about how if Cal can't beat UCLA and Oregon State they can not make it.  We already beat the best team in the conference (Oregon).  Any week anyone can win.  So let's think positively here.

Go Bears!!

Dump Tedford Campaign

I'll admit, I am a little disappointed in the game result, and how we played yesterday, and more importantly, how we coached.

That being said, all of these Dump Tedford comments on the boards and in the the papers comments, etc are ridiculous.  What are you guys smoking?  Jeff Tedford is a great coach for Cal Football.  He does everything right for the Bears.  Except sometimes he is a bit too conservative and some don't like his defense.  Let's be clear - there is a hell of a lot more to running a football program than winning.  Ask Oregon State, or Washington State, about Dennis Erickson.  That is the alternative to Cal football.  A coach who wins at all costs, and you are embarrassed to have the players represent your school.  Idaho had to let about 25% of the football team go after Erickson left because they were so lacking in any ability to function in a positive way.  Do we want to be like Miami in the 80s and 90s?  I do not think so.

Jeff Tedford represents the school as well as anyone else possibly could, in academics, with class and dignity.  And he has the same high standards for his players.

If we win 9 or 10 games this year, we will know we could have done better, but when was the last time you were seriously in the national title consideration three times in the last four years?  If that is not good enough for you, too bad.

That being said, there is still plenty to discuss.  I will have a game analysis up by tomorrow, and try to figure out where we stand in the broader scheme of things.  Had we won, we would have been right in the title hunt.  As it stands, I do believe that there will be only one team with an undefeated season, and that will be Hawaii.  And they may not make a BCS game.

The Pac 10 seems to be the toughest conference this season, with three teams in the top 10 and Cal and UCLA in the top 25.  The Bears need to be a team to win out.  Let us hope they can be one.

That was U-G-L-Y

I can't decide whether to laugh or cry. This was the week to win and get back into contention. Instead, we fell totally out. Our season eight short days ago was in the pink of health.

I still believe that we have a great team. I think we have great players and great coaches on that team. I simply do not understand what happened today, except that the team lacked the courage to win.

What I mean by that is Jeff Tedford played scared. He was afraid to play Kevin Riley, even though Nate Longshore was clearly injured. And he was afraid to let Nate pass. He took very few shots down field. We get 67 yards from 30 rushes. Guess what - stop running the ball and score some points. We never win unless we score 30 or more. For the second week in a row, we forgot how to score.

This looked like Alabama against Georgia 1965. Where did the innovative offense go? The team was afraid to win. In the 4th quarter, Nate's interception was the first downfield pass. Why is that? Starting in the third quarter, JT was bringing in two backs to help with the pass blocking. We are sending two guys downfield. Well, it is pretty hard to win doing that when they have four guys on our two. Of course you are going to be picked off. Essentially, JT was afraid that his offensive line couldn't cut it. He was over-protecing Nate, worried about the future. He was in it to get through this game, not to win it.

This was not a situation where we lost because of execution. Yes, we did lose because we did not execute, but we mostly lost because the coach choose not to win. This is by far the most disappointing coaching game of Jeff Tedford's tenure. He seemed to be so shell shocked by last weeks game that he decided to play it as safe as possible. He turned into the Mike Nolan of College football. If you do not trust your team to make the plays, you can not coach.

But don't take my word for it. Here is how it worked out:

30 rushing plays - 67 yards (2.4 YPC). 13 total drives. That is rush twice (5 yards, third and five), pass once, punt. We rushed on first down every time but once. I think they figured it out. Second and 15 - draw play up the middle. Why? Is DeSean Jackson so lame he can not catch a ball? No - he has a monster game (the only Cal player who seemed like he wanted to win). So what was the problem? Jeff wanted to protect his QB. We had 8 of the 13 drives with 4 or fewer plays. Not going to win a bunch of games like that.

The defense gave up 23 points. Not too bad. They stopped them 4 times for three and outs in the second half, or recovered the fumble. Patrick Cowan had a good game, and they had more big plays than Cal has given up all season. But essentially, the defense held. If we score more than 21, we can win this game.

Nate actually had a pretty good game as well. The problem is, he had to throw into coverage because we onloy had two receivers on the field most of the game. Tedford was really nervous about the offensive line. And not having Robert Jordan really hurt us, because apparently we do not have anyone else who can play receiver.

And now, who cares. What they were playing for is now essentially lost. There is no Rose Bowl, no National Title hunt. UCLA is two games ahead of us in the Pac 10 race with five left to play. I guess the Bears really were pretenders, as Steward Mandel said. If we win 10 games again, that would be great, but I really though we were better than that. Oh well.

Maybe I am over-reacting. But JT really has to look at himself after these last two games. You need to play to win. And they are not doing that.

Off to Southern California

I am off in the morning to Southern California for a day of Golf, and a weekend of Victory. At least, I think I am. I have to say that after last week, I was pretty calm, cool and collected after the game. In fact, I was almost happy. I was happy because although we lost, I was glad that we lost to a team that was not going to kill us in the conference standings, that we would be able to move forward and still get to the National Championship game, and certainly the Rose Bowl if we perform the way that we should. And also happy that Kevin Riley looked good (except for The Obvious). I generally am an optimist. So, in all, I was happy that it was not as bad as it could have been, and that the train can still run down the track.

This week is different. Let me be clear - if we lose this week, I am not sure if I will be able to live anymore. We have to beat these guys no matter what. They are kind of a joke in a way with their erratic play and their soap opera coaching issues. This will be a pretty messy weekend in SoCal if the Bears lose - I envision long, dreary, drunken depression - just like after the 2004 and 2005 and 2006 games down there. While I know UCLA can be a good team - this is part of the Bears putting them behind us for good. We need to do that and move on with our lives. The divorce is final.

I will try to get some posting done while on the road.

GO BEARS!!

South Florida - Yeah!!

Now they know what it is like to be a Cal fan.  They take the number 10 spot, and we move up one.  That's nice.

Why Cal is Great

Here is why I think Cal is the best program in College Football right now.  It is the system.  And it is not what you are thinking.

Everyone thinks that JT is an offensive genius.  I guess he is.  But it is not because he is running this spread offense with a lot of gimmicks.  He is running a very traditional, pro-style offense that runs the ball right up the middle.  With a spread offense.  With a west coast offense.  With a single or double wing, options, etc.  He has taken all of the innovation in all of the different programs, and has done what he should do.  He has become the Microsoft of the football world (this is from a Mac guy) - he takes everyone else's innovations and he puts it in place, and jumbles it around, and confuses the hell out of defenses.  And all he is doing is looking for a small weakness that they can exploit.  If you look at the spread of the ball around the field over the course of the season, I bet it is all over the field, and totally balanced between run and pass.  There is no way for a defense to play it except for straight up.  And the same types of clowns who are looking for a more gambling style defense on our boards are coaching other teams, and so we score.

But it is not just the scheme.  He needs variable players.  By that I mean, he needs fast linemen who are also big, strong and athletic, and who are also very smart.  He needs speed at the edge, with a lot of brains.  He needs a QB who is very intelligent, who can run, who can think, who can throw the hell out of the ball, and be the type of player that is all things to all people.

He also is smart on defense.  He needs a bit of the same on defense that he gets offensively - smart players who play their position, who are capable enough to make the stop, who are smart enough to be where they are supposed to be, and who can be efficient.

What I mean is that unlike some swarming defenses, his is a position defense that relies on each person playing and making the plays, but he has additional protection.  They run a cover 2, they rarely stunt, they almost always keep their lanes.

Just like offensively, where he is trying to make the defense make a mistake, and find the edge, he does the same on the defense.  He is waiting for the offense to make a mistake.

The difference now is that he now has the players to be play his game.  It is a tough game.  Players need to be able to produce, or the whole thing can collapse.  Speed is critical.  There is a reason why JT loves Forsett.  He hits the hole fast, right where it is meant to be hit.  He gets through there.  Because Forsett relies on the linemen to do their jobs.  They are good at what they do - they have zone blocking schemes that minimize the reliance on hitting "your" guy and instead they play space protection.  It helps with getting Justin though the hole.  I am not saying that Marshawn was not good, but the fact is that Justin is more of a JT style back - fast to the assignment and lets get the 6 yards.  And every once in a while you get the 45 yards when the defense was blitzing or stunting.

If you saw Kevin Riley play last week, you know he is the prototypical JT quarterback.  Like Aaron Rodgers.  He is mobile, big and strong (can run the option), and has a rocket for an arm. 

It is nice to get big time plays from big time players.  What I love about JT is that he gets big time plays from guys who you did not think would be big time players.  Forsett, for example.  JJ Arrington.  Adimchinobe Echemandu.  Matt Giordano.  Burl Toler.    With Tedford, it is all about discipline, doing your job, and getting it done efficiently. 

When we do not play efficiently, that is the worst thing you can do.  If you fumble the ball, if you miss your assignments, if you miss tackles, you will be sitting.  But after 5 years, we are at the point where we have the players on the team who buy in, who are disciplined, and who are talented enough to get it done.

There are a few other programs where I think this is the case.  Perhaps LSU, West Virginia and Boise State.  I think we actually have better players than those teams.  Certainly West Virginia and Boise.  But you can see how the concept works well in both those teams.  Boise is, in it's league, the same type of team, and almost good enough to get to the next level, but just will never have the players.  West Virginia is also very good but does not have all of the better players that it needs.  LSU is more of a gambling defense, but they are all about speed.  Their offense is not as balanced - they rely more on the run game because their offensive linemen are not as athletic.  But they are a very good team.

USC is a team that is also very balanced, but gambles too much and relies on talent more than discipline.  It is a balance, but overall, I think Tedford's method will stand the test of time better.  Because talent does not always translate into upper division success.  You may have some great games from some talented people, but unless you get everyone working together, there are going to be some problems on the team from a performance perspective.  This year is a case in point.  They have a huge supposed talent advantage.  However, we know we are going to kick their ass, since out guys play like a team.  

With JT, I think it is clear that we are past the hurdle where we need to rely on JC transfers to help out with the QB slot - it takes too long to learn the offense for that to work.  We were lucky with Aaron Rodgers, but Joe A was not such a good deal.  We now have a great pool of talent to draw on for the future.

GO BEARS!!

UCLA Game

I am a bit concerned about the injury situation piling up.

Right now, we are down one QB, one Wide Receiver, one Tight End, one Corner Back, one Defensive End, and one Kicker.  In fact, our kicker is out for the year.

I was excited after the bye week, when everyone was supposed to get better.  But it seems like most of these injuries are lingering on.

I feel entirely confident that UCLA will be a victory (although Dorrell always pulls something out to make the folks down there think one more year may be OK).  They are hurting offensively and we should be able to put up points against the defense.   I do believe that JT will be a bit more aggressive this week, after giving Kevin Riley the week to calm down.  Nate Longshore will not start.  So we need to be strong here.

In reviewing the stats, it is interesting that DeSean Jackson had more passes thrown to him last week than Hawkins.  Hawkins just made the catches.  Before seeing that, I thought that DeSean just was not thrown to enough.  But that was incorrect.  After watching the game, I think I know what it was.  DeSean was in double coverage quite a bit.  While Riley was willing to throw his direction, he was not willing to put it where anyone could actually catch it due to the defenders.  I think that will change this week.  Either DeSean has an epic game, or else Riley throws some picks.

Riley is a bit of a cowboy, obviously.  I think he got a bit of humility after the game, but I am sure he will come out swinging.  That means he will either have a great redemption game, or else he will crap out.  Somehow I do not think he is the calm steady-eddy type of QB - he wants to win (and sometimes will make mistakes because of his overbearing confidence).  I remember in a high school game when I was a senior.  Our kicker was out, and the QB was the backup.  The coach asked him if he could make the distance.  It was about 48 yards.  "Absolutely" was the reply.   He had never made a kick more than 35 yards in practice.  Guess what - his kick went 35 yards.  But that is the type of QB that Riley is - very confident, very good, but may be a little more gambling that a Tedford QB normally is.  After the game, our coach said he wanted a confident kicker - might as well give it a shot.  Plus I think we were down by 28 at the time anyway.  

The one thing we do not know is how KR is away from home.  I think we have the idea that he will be nervous, less effective, etc.  We are conditioned because that is the Nate way.  That may not be the case with KR.  He is from Oregon, not Southern California.  He probably did not grow up wanting to play for the SoCal schools like many of the Bears.  I bet he does very well.  I bet DeSean and Kevin both have great games on a big stage.

The one great thing that we have not had happen this year is our offensive line has been very sturdy.  And they are playing well.  I believe they will continue to improve.  They are probably a bit embarrassed by the game last week - three sacks and a goal line stand against.  Hopefully that embarrassment will spur them to play a top-notch game against the baby bears down south.

They are going to probably start Cowan at QB, or possibly the walk-on third stringer, Bethel-Thompson.  If they do start Cowan, I doubt he will have the wheels that he had during the early part of the season.  If Bethel-Thompson starts, Sayonara Bruins.

In either case, it is important that the Bears give a good early rush to get the QB out of synch.   UCLA has had a pretty poor offensive showing this year, only reaching more than 400 yards twice (Stanford and Washington) and being held to less than 300 yards twice (Notre Dame and BYU).  They are pretty inconsistent.  I guess that is the hallmark of a Dorrell team.  That being said, there is so much antipathy toward the Bruins from their fans at this point, I think that it would almost be a relief to them if Cal won.  I am not saying the players are feeling that.  But the impending doom scenario is pervasive and does get into the players heads.  That can be dangerous.  Or it can be a total collapse.

In any event, I think the Bears are by now so much a better team and program than the Bruins that this game should be a victory, even with Riley starting and the Bruins fighting for their lives.  Jerry Palm of CollegeBCS.com had the Bears winning by 47 points.  I am serious.  And he is generally pretty good. I will not go that far, but I do think that the Bears win by a good 21 points.  JT does not pile on.

Bears 42, Bruins 21

GO BEARS!!!

UCLA Game

I am putting OSU out of my mind.  And, on a rainy Tuesday, the game this weekend seems so much more sunny.

First off, it is interesting that there is currently no line.  I guess no one knows which QB will be playing for either team.  That is kinda fun. 

I am also excited that I will be at the game this weekend.  My buddy comes up from LA each home game, and I travel to the LA game each season.  It is always a fun weekend, although recently it has not turned out as well as we wanted.

Last year was particularly interesting:  Joe Kapp was our guest at the game in the Coliseum.  Wow, what a trip that was.  We got him into the Alumni Tailgate, and he got up and made about a 5 minute speech about the Scrotums, and how we were gonna kick their ass.  Then he gave the "Give me a C" cheer.  I though some of the old lady blues around us were going to faint at his obvious manliness and his colorful language.  A True Bear.  Go Joe.

Anyway, during the game, it was interesting to listen to Joe's commentary about the Bears.  I remember going to the games while Joe was the coach, and watching the continual run up the middle.  I guess we thought we would break one or something.  But I guess it make sense if you used all 4 downs like Joe did.  There was never a 4th down that Joe was not afraid to go for it on.  He had a ton of confidence in the Power of the Bear.  Maybe a little too much.  But, on occasion, he was right - like when we beat the snot out of Elway on his last college game with The Play, or once again beat the snot out of Stanfurd on Joe's last college coached game.  His son is now a Golden Bear, which I can not be more excited about.  With lineage like that on this team, we are sure to at least get a Rose Bowl bid.  In fact, Joe was the last one to bring us to the  Rose Bowl - Maybe we needed a bit more of the Kapp magic to make it back.  i won't say that Joe was critical of the play - calling.  But man, you could tell he wanted to beat those guys at the Coliseum.

Anyway, we lost the game at the Coliseum, but it was a day I will never forget.

This year, I am sure it will be different.  While UCLA is purported to have a great defense, it does not really add up.  They are the same players that we shellacked last year in Memorial.  I feel good about this game, as well as the rest of the season.  This is the year we get that monkey off our back in So Cal.  We won the Holiday Bowl by a lot - we are going to win by a lot this weekend, and we will win again on January 1.

I will be posting my pre-game analysis later - for now..

GO BEARS!!

BCS Rankings

Hey all you BCS buffs out there - the rankings are out.  And guess what - no one is yet eligible.

The rule is you need to be in the top 14 and have at least 9 wins to be eligible.  Cal needs 4 more victories.  Arizona State only needs two more.

The good news is, by the time we play those guys, they are still going to need two more, and so will we.

Here is the deal on the current ranking:

1) We are 12, based on an average 9/10 in the polls and a 15 in the computers.  That computer ranking is deflated a bit because we only have played 6 games (the computers calculate win/loss ratio - we are at a 17% disadvantage because we have only played 6 games).  When we play next week, we will move up assuming we win, as other teams take their bye weeks.  I predict that we break into the top 10 next week, even if no one loses in front of us.

2) We will probably move up anyway based on the team in front of us.  I do not think there is anyone ahead of us who will not lose another game, including LSU.  Just for a moment, assume that I am correct, and that Cal wins out.  We are in the NCG.  Probably playing Oregon.

3) Oregon actually could win out, along with us, and go to the NCG.  That would suck.  Especially if Michigan wins out and they beat Ohio State.

4) If Cal wins out, we want SC to lose to Oregon and beat Arizona State, and Arizona State to beat Oregon.  We would be the clear winner in the Pac 10, and I think go to the NCG.  Also, all of those teams would be in the 8 -17 ranking categories.

5) We also want Tennessee to win out.  Go Vols.

6) It would be nice if Colorado State would win a game.  What is up with those guys!

7) Jerry Palm of CollegeBCS.com has Cal in the Fiesta Bowl, assuming that we lose one more, and SC goes to the Rose Bowl.  That would be interesting.

Anyway, we have six weeks to go or so.  Two spots a week is all I ask.

Final Oregon State Stuff

I am not going to post a whole game recap or analyse the psychology of why a 20 year old kid made a big mistake on a big stage.  But I do have something to say about how the loss may effect the team over time.

First, the two teams in the BCS national Championship game will have a loss.  So it is not the end of the world.  I think the team knows that.  I do not think they will be down about this too long.

Second, JT now knows that Kevin Riley is the real deal.  I think that is big news.  He obviously thought that, but seeing it on the big stage is a lot more comforting.  He also knows that he will never make that mistake again (the one that shall be nameless).  So having Kyle Reed transfer was not a great thing, but not a killer.  And the team now knows that they have a backup who can lead the team to victory if Nate goes down.  That has to be comforting to them.

Third, now we know where Lavelle Hawkins pre-game comment came from - "I didn't even know Nate was not playing" - of course not - 197 yards on 9 completions.  He loves this Riley guy.

Forth - when they have 9 in the box on goal line, try to run something else.   I think that is a lesson learned by JT.  If Nate was in there, they would have done a QB sneak.  He did not trust Riley.  I do not think anyone has said that yet.

Fifth - when JT goes back to look at the film, he will see that putting points on the board is important.  We had two drives over 75 yards where we did not score.  Both of those were opportunities to kick the field goal, and we did not.  We went for it on 4th and 1 and went for it with 14 seconds left and no time outs.  I think he will become more conservative in the future after reviewing the film and stats on this game. 

Sixth - Our defense gives up somewhere around 30 points per game.  We need to score more than 30 to win.  We did not.  You can not go into the 4th quarter with only having 21 points on the board.

Seventh - with Kevin Riley in, you can't just run in the first half.  I know you are trying to establish the run, but 3rd and long each series is bad news.  The play after the long Forsett run, JT should have gone into the end zone with DeSean.  Instead, three nore plays up the gut and miss a field goal.  We had three series after that with the total yards gained of 5 yards.  That first quarter lost us the game - forget about all the stuff that came after that.  We did not hit them hard up front.  That should be a lesson learned.

Eighth - the defense played great.  Meaning that they played exactly how they were expected to play.  This is a tough conference - you are not going to hold anyone scoreless.  If the offense is inefficient, and turns the ball over, you are going to lose.  Ask Oregon State about that.  Our defense gave up two drives over 55 yards for scores.  That is a reasonable amount.  But Oregon State scored on three other short drives for two field goals and a touchdown because of turnovers and special teams errors.  That is a level of mistake making that will doom our team.  Even so, when we needed the stops, we got it in the 4th quarter - two three and outs to set up our game winning drive if we could have completed it.  I do not think anything about the defense changes.  And I can certainly tell you that JT is not going to change it just because a bunch of whiners on a board complain.

******

All in all, I think the team did fine.  We had some coaching mistakes and some execution mistakes, but Oregon State is a good team.  They have had too many mistakes of their own this year to win effectively.  I think they are a tough team to beat for many people.

That being said, I hope (and I think) that JT will start to get a bit more aggressive earlier in the game.  We need to execute cleaner, and we need to get the ball to our play-makers outside the box a bit more.  I like to think that will all happen.

Going on the road to UCLA, it will be interesting.  I am not sure if Nate plays.  I am thinking that he does not.   I hope that does not give JT pause and he limits our playbook.  We have a great team and we need to all parts to be clicking.  

Finally, I love how he said that the team picks the coaches up after a loss.  I know he has that knot in his stomach from Tuesday night to Kickoff.  And he get's depressed after a loss like this.  Hey, guys, he is just like us.

Actually, after this game, I am more a believer than ever.  I really feel like out team and the future of the program is in great shape.  We have great players AND backups at all positions.  If we could have gotten the win, of course, that would have been wonderful, and we would have been the number one team in the land.  But that doesn't mean a thing until January 7th.  So let's get there.