Unfortunately, I have not had a lot of time to post this week. I will say this, however. There is no doubt that Cal will win tomorrow.
Amongst the worrying of the Old Blues, there is the sense that Arizona has the greatest defense that College Football can buy, that they have a ton of defensemen returning, and that the spread offense that they are running is starting to provide a real offense - something that they have not had in the past.
In other words, we lost last year and now they are good. Look out, Bears!
I call bullshit on that.
First of all, the Arizona game last year was Dunbar's last game as offensive coordinator. We gave up on our finesse offense. Yes, we stilled played it, and weakly went through our last games, losing two and winning another. But think about the chill running down Dunbar's spine when he went into the office that Sunday morning know that his big experiment with Tedford was over. No more TedSpread. No more West Coast life, baby - back to the Big Ten where even Appalachian State can hang 34 on Michigan.
Meanwhile, back on the team, the players are chomping at the bit to get back at these guys. And deep down, the Arizona guys know they got lucky. So they are waiting for an excuse to lose.
Here is what is going to happen tomorrow:
1) It will be raining a bit. A slippery field. The defensive linemen will be sliding backwards 5 to 8 yards per play, as we run right down their throat. Justing Forsett rushes for over 150 yards by the end of the 3rd quarter. None longer than 10 yards. I predict 250 yards in total rushing offense.
2) We actually know how to play against a spread offense - even the Texas Tech spread. Frankly, this game is a good warmup for Oregon the next week. The difference is, Oregon runs, and Arizona passes from the spread. Luckily for us, we have now played three teams that have run the no-huddle offense. We face the forth of the first 5 in a row that we will play with a no-huddle, spread-like offense. It is not a big deal for us. We know how to defend it. Once again, we are not a big lumbering Big Ten team. We have the defensive capability to keep these guys in check. So we will hit the quarterback early and often, before, during and after the ball leaves his hand. He will be hurting.
People are worried about Nate being off. Nate will be fine. He will not even pass until the second quarter, in some big play action sequences. First, run up the middle. Second down, draw. Third down, off left. First down, off right. Third down, draw. First down, reverse, 20 yards. Second down, fake reverse to Best, pass for TD to DeSean.
Frankly, I think Cal crushes these guys. The players know. These guys ruined us last year - just like Tennessee. And just like Tennessee, it will be tough on them.
This season is like the scene in The Godfather part 2, where Michael says "today, I am going to collect some old debts", and Mo Green gets it in the eye. Tennessee, Arizona, UCLA, Oregon, USC - we have something to prove against all of those guys. Event Louisiana Tech is a past loss (although not on JTs watch). The games I am worried about are at Washington and Arizona State. But we'll take those when we get to them.
And Dunbar was Carmine, sent off the exile.
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3 comments:
Hard to argue with what you are saying...except I still believe that the Arizona coaches are still doing their jobs. A few points:
- They will pressure Longshore. The will blitz early on passing downs since they believe their DBs can play man coverage. Longshore has not yet demonstrated an ability to handle the pressure.
- You haven't mentioned their offense at all...Willie Tuitama (sp?) has been flinging the ball all over the field. It seems like Cal's defense is characterized as Zero Yards after the Catch. We have generally been successful at stopping long passes at the point of the catch. This also means that we always seem to allow people to make 8yd receptions. If Tuitama plays like he has, he may kill us with 5 minute, 80 yard drives.
- DeSean, DeSean, DeSean...using your Godfather analogy, isn't he a little bit like Sonny (James Caan)...full of bluster and able to back it up, but at some point he gets executed in a toll booth. You saw that twice last week when he stupidly tried to handle punts that should have been ignored. Clearly Jackson is putting pressure on himself to do something big (heisman hypeitis) and that means he is starting to play out of the team concept. Tedford will bench him if he tries to pick up a punt rolling on the ground amongst defenders and it results in a fumble. A benched Jackson will not be helpful for team performance or morale.
I still think the Bears win...but by 8pts. Cal 38- Cats 30.
First, I think that they will pressure the QB in passing downs if they can figure that out. We will not be passing.
Second, we will be running straight ahead, instead of the slow developing misdirection plays that Dunbar favored. They are fast, but so are we, and when you come straight at someone your sped is less of a defensive advantage. They will be running right by us.
Third, the way you gain a bunch of yards on Cal is to have a balanced offense. WE play the ebnd, not break. When there is a one dimensional offense, Cal is pretty good at shutting it down. Our linemen will be coming hard and abandoning their lanes. I do not think we ever do that, but we will against these guys. The same as the Brandon Mebane story - in the Pros, everyone is surprised that he was a great pass rusher. It just was not his job at Cal. Our guys are like that as well, but they normally need to hold their lanes and that will not be the case today. I bet Tuitama is held to less than 200 yards today. We will be rushing hard upfield every play. We may have our DBs and LBs playing soft initially, but I bet we have 6 or 7 TFL / Sacks today.
I never thought Arizona could win. Don't know where you heard that Arizona had a great defense. Before playing Cal they had given up tons of points and yards. Yet, I was concerned that Cal's defense would not be able to stop the Arizona spread offense. Cal did have significant problems, except for the first quarter. Bottom line is that the defense has to get stronger. We are not going to be able to win shoot outs every time.
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