Lets look at it:
Cal has averaged 6.2 yards per carry this year. So has Oregon. Both of our running games appear to be solid. The only difference is, we have played better defensive teams.
Passing: Oregon is averaging 13.9 yards receiving, for a total of 1199 yards. Of those receptions, they have 7 receptions over 30 yards for scores. Cal has not given up any long scores like that this year, except the one garbage time reception to Colorado State. Take out the big plays, and Oregon has a rather pedestrian 9 yards per play.
Cal on the other hand does not have many big plays this year. We have not gone down the field too much as we have been playing ball control all day long, and running out the clock since we have been ahead in all of our contests big in the first or second quarter. In fact, our longest two plays are for 49 yards, most of which came in yards after the catch from Justin Forsett and Cameron Morrah. That being said, we are still averaging 11.2 yards per catch.
Cal's defense is a bend but do not break defense. We play the spread very well. Oregon has 11 of the 24 touchdowns that they have scored on run or pass plays over 30 yards. Like I said, Cal has only given up one that distance, and that was in garbage time at Colorado State.
Cal has not been pressed, and has not needed to play a full game. I think Oregon feels like they went to the Big House and stomped on Michigan - they can play with anybody. Well, Michigan can't play against spread teams. That is clear. Cal has all season, and has been comfortably ahead. If Oregon is any good - and I do not think that is clear at this point - they will be in a battle. Otherwise I see it as the same game as last year. I do not think the Duck's offense is better than Tennessee's. Tennessee clearly has better players - at least from a recruiting standpoint, they have much better classes the last 5 years. I would be surprised if Oregon put up more points against Cal than Tennessee did, and very surprised if they put up more than 35. Cal, meanwhile, will put up at least 45 on these guys, and should do better.
The one concern that I have is the penalty and stupid mistakes area. If we win that, we win the game big.
My prediction: Oregon 31, Cal 48.
4 comments:
HAHA, I thought people from Cal were smart; too bad you're not going to be singing the same tune around 4pm today. Good luck, but I'm sure it won't be enough.
I agree with much of what Oski88 says. However, I believe the game will turn on whether or not we can effectively put a spy on Dixon. One of our LBs needs to be on him at all times. That will make it harder to blitz and put more pressure on the DBs in man-coverage, but if they play smart, we can win this game.
What is missing is the emotion side of the equation. Oregon is at home....they have revenge on their mind...and frankly this is the biggest game of the season for them. That is why I think this is a pick'em game.
Cal has played better defenses? Cal's opponents NCAA rank Total D (91-58-57-105) ave 78 while Oregon's opponents (45-38-100-62) ave 61. Advantage Oregon.
Cal's opponents NCAA rank in Scoring D (107-98-75-82)ave 91 while Oregon's opponents (41-94-92-72) ave 75. Once again Oregon's opponents have better D's.
Don't let those pesky facts get in the way! LOL!
At the end of the year, you will find that the teams Cal has played have good to great defenses. Arizona is a good defense - probably top 4 in the Pac 10. At least equivalent to Michigan. Tennessee is also very good defense. Their stats have been impacted by playing Cal and Florida - probably the toughest early season than any other team in the country. Colorado State was also very good, except that they have only played three games, so Cal is a big part of their statistics - actually almost 50% of the yardage. Likewise, Louisiana Tech's stats have been impaced because they have also only played three games - and two are against Cal and Hawaii, some of the best offensive teams in America.
Oregon, otoh, has played defenses that have padded their stats by playing Sac State, San Jose State, Appalacian State, and, worst of all, Notre Dame, who is averaging less than 200 yards per game.
The funny thing about Oregon is that they have played no one who is prepared to stop them. That changes today. We'll see what happens.
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