Finally - the first game is over. NOW IS THE TIME THAT WE START TO TALK ABOUT BOWLS!!!
Right now Cal is 7th in the BCS. That is based mainly on Sagarin's rating of Cal at #2 in his rating for the ELO-Chess method. That means that overall, Cal is #3 in the computers, and 10 in both voting polls.
Also, the Pac 10 is currently rated the toughest conference by most of the computer ranking systems. This can only help the Bears as they go through the season. This weekend will be crucial for the Bears, as other Pac 10 teams move through the preseason schedule. Oregon at Michigan used to be one that we did not have to worry about - Michigan was highly ranked and had they beaten Appalachian State they would have only helped Cal - Oregon win or lose. However, now with Michigan dropping to the 40's in the computers (and Oregon around 24) the only thing that can happen is Oregon can tread water or slip if they lose.
Washington should lose but if they do beat Boise State, they will get a big bump up in the polls and the computers. They would be a huge shot in the arm for the Pac 10 computer rankings if they did win.
Once again, the weak OOC schedules of the other major conferences will make the difference going though the process at the end of the year. If the Pac 10 gets through the major part of the next three weeks, and goes into conference play as the #1 conference in the computers, there will be little that anyone can do to stop the winner of the conference from going to the National Championship game, assuming they are undefeated.
Assuming this, Cal and USC winning out through the season will put the bears in the top three or four in the BCS prior to that game. Note that LSU and Florida play before Cal and SC, So does Oklahoma and Texas. Wisconsin if they win out will probably have a very strong shot, probably better than a one loss SEC team.
If Cal loses, that would drop the Bears to probably 8 or 9 in the polls, and probably 3 or 4 in the computers (we would surely be one or two before that). So there is little possibility of Cal losing out of a BCS game if they have a one-loss season at USC.
If Cal loses to a one loss USC team, the situation could be a little dicey. Depending on whether or not there are undefeated teams, Cal could probably still make a BCS bowl. If there are no other undefeated teams, probably the SEC and the Pac 10 would meet in the Championship game. Cal could meet the Big 10 Champ in the Rose Bowl.
Probably the teams that have the easiest run would be Oklahoma. They have to beat Texas, but that is about it. This asumes that Oklahoma is better than Texas. I think that is probably true. Either of those two teams could sneak in the weak Big 12. In any event, though, Cal will make the Rose Bowl with one loss. They will make the National Championship game with no loses. So it is really up to the Bears to make the season special.
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5 comments:
You will go to hell for discussing such a topic so early in the season.
If they don't go to a BCS game it is your fault.
Clearly delusional. Old Cal thinking. We have a top 10 team. We are ranked # 1 in the country by the ESPN fan poll. And you don't think we should talk about being in the BCS? You still have some clinching to do.
What in God's name?
We should talk about being in the BCS AFTER we beat UCLA, AFTER we beat Oregon, AFTER we beat ASU. Without those three games these arguments are moot.
What are you guys crying about? The Bears, of course, need to win to do anything - no one said they didn't. But you sound like the guys on the message boards who keep sounding like Eyeore - life can be a little sunnier than all that. The point of this is that - if Cal wins all but the USC game, we are pretty much guaranteed a spot. If we do not, then we are done, and something else may happen. But the fact is, three years ago, we were NOT allowed in, even though all we had done was lose to USC. That will not be the case this year.
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