Cal at Oregon

I was thinking about the game, and thinking about how bad I would feel if Cal lost.  Then, I started to think about the Tennessee game last year, which I went to.  That was just about the worst that I have ever felt after a Cal game.  I mean, we were number 9 in the country (albeit, pre-season) and had high expectation.  And frankly, Cal was blown off the line.  I remember going into the stadium and seeing Nate and Joe Ayoob warming up.  Joe was firing the balls down the field.  Nate was lobbing the balls, and missing a bunch of receivers in warm ups.  The crowd was huge and already there, and they were as loud during the warm-ups and run-out and the national anthem (and prayer) than Memorial is most any time.

Tennessee came out and punched the Bears hard.  And the game was over.

The Bears were scared.  And it showed.  And they lost.  Big.

I started to think about Oregon.  And they don't scare anyone on the team.  We play these guys every year.  There may be a homefield advantage - might be hard to communicate, etc.  But we are used to that.  Tedford is not freaking out about Oregon, and their offense.  Gregory and the defense has seen these guys before, and no one is afraid of them.  And if you are not afraid, and there is no psychological advantage, then it is just talent on talent.  I think the Bears win.

That is not to say that Longshore does not get distracted.  But the fact is, he is a good QB, when he is on.  And now, as a second year starter, he does understand how not to throw INTs.  And that will be critical.

I like Dennis Dixon and I think Stewart is a great back.  Their receivers are banged up - Brian Paysinger is out for the season (their receiving leader before the injury).   They have good options in Cameron Colvin and Jaison Williams.  But they have had to take a redshirt off one of their freshmen for depth at receiver.  In any event, they are a good team with a good offense.  But they have not faced a defense this year that is good, and is built to face a spread offense.  By this time in the season, every team we have faced has run the no-huddle offense.  Three teams have run out of a basic spread offense.  There is nothing here that we have not seen before.  But there is something here that the Ducks have not seen before.

They have been a big play team all year.  Cal has allowed only ONE play over 20 yards that has gone for a score.  In four games. 

We are a big play defense - we focus on taking the ball away.  When you are searching for those extra yards - the big play - I believe that makes you susceptible to giving up the football, especially to a team focused on taking it away.  And if you focus on ball control, you give up a lot of your big play competitiveness.

Dixon is a senior, so he probably will not just try to play catch with the Bears this year (see his first pass of last years game).  However, I do not think he has suddenly morphed into Gods gift of concentration and accuracy.  We will pick two or three, and a fumble or two at least.

I think this game will come down to what games normally come down to - turnovers and special teams, and talent.  I think we have the advantage in all of those areas.  They certainly do not have the advantage in offensive play-makers.  And their defense is lacking.  That being said, penalties, mistakes, all of those things, will be the difference in the game this weekend.  And, frankly, I think JT will get the team ready.

It is a total lack of respect - a total lack of respect - that they are favored by 5.5 while we are the number 6 team in the nation.  Let's earn it.