Final Thoughts on Arizona at Cal

I just finished re-watching the game on Tivo.  While I did not think the Bears played badly during the game (in fact, just like every Cal game so far this year I never was feeling like it was in doubt), after watching the game again, I really think Cal played pretty good.

Here are some of what I think are the most critical numbers:

Offense                                   Arizona                 Cal

3rd down efficiency                29% (5 0f 17)        55% (6 of 11)

4th down efficiency             33% (1 of 3)         no chances

Yard per play                     4.0                        6.2

Turn overs                         4                       2

Offensive points per play     .32                      .55

Average gain per rush         1.1 yard                4.9 yards

Sacks                                 3                          0

Clearly Cal dominated this game.  In fact, there were perhaps 5 plays that kept the game mildly interesting - two drops by Craig Stevens, resulting in the two three and outs in the third quarter, the fumble by Montgomery, resulting in a field goal, Nate's interception, resulting in a field goal, and the facemask penalty, resulting in a first down for Arizona, and eventually a score.

All of these penalties / mistakes were well after the game was in hand.  It is probably the natural result of success breeding a lack of concentration.  But clearly, when the rubber meets the road, we had a strong drive in the 4th quarter to put the game away, leaning on our senior leaders, Forsett and Longshore.

I am pretty convinced that this team is just hitting it's stride.  At the beginning of the year, there was a lot of consternation over a number if issues.  

First, would Forsett fill in for Marshawn.  Frankly, I think our running game is better this year than last, with Forsett picking up reliable yardage, Montgomery as relief, and Best as a huge change of pace threat.  

Secondly, how would our offensive line do?  Well, we have only three sacks on the year, for 18 yards lost. We are rushing for 6 yards per carry.  We have had all day to pass.  I think the line is clearly doing well.  

We also were concerned with our defensive line and secondary.  Our line is making a TFL on one of every 11 plays.  We are sacking the QB once every 13 attempts at passing.  Our run stopping is fine - we are holding opponents to 3.2 yards per carry.  We have had only one long pass for a touchdown (pass over 25 yards) - against our second string in garbage time at Colorado State.  While our secondary and our linebackers are once again making most of the tackles, that is DC Gregory's scheme.  I think that we are shaping up to be a quality Gregory defense this year. 

Some comments - our defensive performance, which sometimes looks like people are marching up and down the field on us, is working as it is supposed to work.  We are keeping folks out of the end zone, and gaining turnovers.  We are plus 7 on the year, in our forth game.  Generally, a team that is plus 15 to 20 leads the nation.  I think that we can be that team this year.  Nate, while he has thrown a couple of bad passes into coverage, has generally been quite good about avoiding throwing to the other team.  He may have missed some receivers on routes, or been high or low, but he is not throwing into coverage (which must really piss DeSean off, but that is a different story).  I really think that this team is going to be the quintessential Tedford / Gregory team by the end of the season.  A stingy defense on points, which gets a ton of turnovers, and an efficient offense.  

The question is, can that type of team win.  I know it can beat USC, because we almost did in 2004.  One pass and we were there.  The question is, can that type of team beat LSU.

It is almost as if this whole four game series that we have played has been to set us up to play Oregon.  We now have strong experience playing the spread / no huddle program that we are going to get from the Ducks.  Our bend but don't break, and get the turnover defense is exactly what you need against them.  We do need to get constant pressure on Dixon, and that will be interesting to see how we do that.  If we blitz too much, we can be burned.  But I think that a four man rush will be more than able to accomplish containing the run game, with run support from the linebackers.  But if we do blitz, the corners will be more man to man, and I do not know how they will be.  The good news is that Oregon's best receiver is out for this game, so hopefully that will be a little relief.  The other good news is that, this is pretty much the same team and the same offense that we saw last year.  That turned out pretty good.