Rose Bowl Bound

No - not the Bears. But it is looking increasingly like the Pac 10 champ will be Rose Bowl bound. Even if it is a perfect 12-0 Arizona State.

I did not think this possible earlier in the season. But the voters have Arizona and Oregon firmly behind Ohio State, Boston College, and one-loss LSU. Based on the poll here, and on my observations, I think that Oregon and LSU are probably the two best teams in the country. But Ohio State and Boston College could win out and make the Championship game without clearly being the best.

And do not say that a playoff would fix this - no one can tell me Colorado was the second best team in baseball, either.

But without these controversies, there would be no blogging, so...

Anyway, I think we can firmly plant the nail in the Bears coffin for a BCS game, although technically they still have a slim mathematical chance. For the Pac 10, it could be mass suicide and therefore impossible to get two teams in (which would cost the Bears $450,000 in BCS revenue for not getting the second team in). Now you know what the SEC feels like.

Here is how I think it shakes out:

Cal wins out, gets to 9 victories. We are not great, but we are not as bad as we have been playing, either.

Arizona State loses this week to Oregon. Besides the fact that Oregon is the better team, and team that tears down the goalposts after beating a team ranked 17 slots below them is not going to win many more. I think they also lose one more, going 10-2 on the season.

Oregon wins out, or else loses Oregon State, going 11 - 1 or 10-2.

I think Oregon State has a chance to win out. They still play USC and Oregon, so that is stretching it a bit. But they also have a very good defense and if they do not turn the ball over, they are very strong. USC is not all that, and Oregon at the end of the season will have a lot of pressure on, and they will be possibly playing to go the NCG. So that is a good time for them to lose.

USC I think loses to Cal and to Oregon State. I think they lose 4 games this year. That may be wishful thinking, but I think pretty realistic.

UCLA loses out. They do not have a QB who can walk. That poses a problem. They may squeek it out this week at Arizona, but they are dying out there. So they go 6-6 on the season, and Dorrell gets a 5 year extension.

In this scenario, I can not see more than Oregon getting the ticket to a big game. The interesting thing is that if Ohio State make the National Championship game, the Rose Bowl would be in the hazardous position of selecting the second place Big 10 team - or Michigan. That sounds familiar, doesn't it? I am not sure they would do that. But if they did, that would be fun to see. I could actually see Oregon crushing them, and then Ohio State winnning the NCG against Boston College. I could see the AP voting Oregon National Champs, depending on what happens to LSU. It would be even better if LSU went to the Rose Bowl - if the Ducks beat them, they definitely would have the share of the National Champ title from the AP.

See how fun it is now that your team is done? You can think about all sorts of crazy things again. I can ski over the winter break and not worry about how I was going to get the New Orleans, what to do with the kids, etc.

The sad thing is, in my scenario, the Bears could still be third in the Pac 10, with one or two teams ahead of us going to the BCS games, and the Holiday Bowl would still pick USC over us. And there is no way I am going to El Paso (although I would be happy to drive over the bridge to see the Bears in SF).

But it would be nice to finish over both SC and UCLA. So there is still plenty to play for.

GO BEARS!!

What Happened?

Four weeks ago, Cal was averaging 37 points per game. Three weeks ago, we score 28 against Oregon State. Last week, we score 21 at UCLA (who lost to Washington State today). Today, the offense scores 13 points.

Our offensive production went from averaging 437 per game to 287 last week and 358 today.

The Bears went from a team that was number two in the country to a team that will be lucky to beat the Cougars next week.

The Bears went into a bye week, and they came out a poorly performing football team. There are a bunch of injuries. But everyone has injuries - Arizona State lost their starting running back this week. I think they started to read the PR that the Cal football office puts out. They are no longer an elite, ranked team.

Today, the Wildcats had the ball 78 plays. Once again, the Bears wasted opportunity after opportunity. They missed ANOTHER field goal. The threw two interceptions in the fourth quarter. They had 10 penalties for over 80 yards, and plenty at inopportune times.

They look like a team that has no discipline, that is unsure of themselves, and that is looking for leadership.

And I think that starts at the top. Jeff Tedford needs to make the hard choices. And that is to bench Nate Longshore, and to start Kevin Riley. Nate is still injured, is still unsure of himself, and is not dynamic.

Arizona State is a good team, clearly. They have the inside track on the Rose Bowl and they have a strong coach. One who is not afraid to go for it three times in a row on 4th down. Not try to draw someone offside on 4th down, but actually go for it. The Bears need to get there, and we are not. Dare I say that Arizona State has surpassed us? I don't think so. This is, I guess, a rebuilding year (at least I hope it is).

Frankly, there were some good performances. I think the defense did a good job today. 95 yards in the first half is pretty good. But They were on the field almost twice as much as the Cal offense, and clearly worn out in the 4th quarter. You can't trot your defense out there the entire 4th quarter and expect to win. The offense has to do something. Cal had a lot of great offense. But they did not put drives together. Cal actually averaged almost 6 yards per play, vs Arizona States 5 yards per play. But Arizona State had 78 plays to Cal's 61. That means that Cal failed often when it mattered. We were three of 11 on third down, vs. Arizona State's 9 of 19. If you add their two fourth down conversions, they were 11 of 19. So we failed when it mattered, and they did not.

Missed field goals, penalties, and turnovers. Once again, for the third week in a row, we gave the game away. This week, I felt like we needed to really play mistake free to win. We did not and we lost big. They played relatively mistake free, and they won. In the second half, we gave the game to the Wildcats, reversing the first half statistical domination by the Bears, by giving the Wildcats the ball for 23 minutes of the second half. The Bears only got 89 yards because we passed the ball to the other team.

The question is, why do we fail when we do? I think it is something to do with the changing way that teams are defending us. People are playing us for the run, and giving up the pass. So our run production is dropping, and while the passing is OK statistically, it is not there when we need it. Nate is a great manager of the game from a statistical point of view - he connects for a relatively high percentage (although only 50% today). He puts yards on the board. But he does not connect when he needs to, and that is a function of how he is taught. For example, if there is double coverage, he will definitely not throw. He throws away. But he does not make something happen. And I think the defensive coordinators are looking at Nate, and thinking, I am willing to let that guy try to beat me, and I bet he can not. And he can not do it.

Nate is good in general, but not good in the pinch. This is becoming more and more clear. And I think that if he continues, the Bears will have a tough time winning as we continue through the season in close games.

Nate is 15 and 5 in the games that he starts. All 5 loses are away. Almost all of the victories were large leads going into the 4th quarter. We can not come back with Nate. We need to lead by more than a score going late in the game to be secure in this game. He does not have the killer instinct. I do not know if that is the line not giving protection, or what. But in the last two weeks, Nate had thrown 4 picks in the 4th quarter. That is no way to win.

Anyway, the Bears once again gave away a winnable game by not converting opportunities, by trowing the ball away, and by hurting themselves with penalties. We need to change that, or this will be another Marriucci season.

GO BEARS!!!

Cal Fan Issues

I have some issues with being a Cal fan.

First of all, I am sure that I lost both of the last two games for the Bears. I wore the wrong socks to both games.

Not only that - I was stupid about it. I wore the wrong socks to the Oregon State game. As soon as I saw Riley making the biggest mistake of his young life, my first thought was - why is he trying to kill me. But I immediately refocused on what I had done to make him that stupid - and clearly it was that i had worn the wrong socks. I knew as I put them on that morning that they were untested in battle. Everything else I had on was undefeated. The socks were new, and that clearly was the difference. I felt bad for letting down the team.

Later in the week, of course, I realized how silly that was. We were still in the picture for the National Championship game, we were still in the hunt for lots of big time bowl games. Really, what could I have done? Nothing. I have nothing to do with it.

So to prove a point, in a game where we were clearly going to win, I wore the same new socks again at UCLA. On purpose. To prove a point to myself.

My agony of being the instrument of death for the Bears this week is, well, unbearable. To all true Cal fans, I apologize. I am going back to my standard Champion costco socks, my Oski Boxers, khaki shorts and Cal Coaches shirt. Note - I rotate all of my hats equally. I would hate to have a hat determine the National Championship game. Socks are bad enough.

Go Bears!!!

Cal vs Arizona State

This is an interesting match this week. For both teams, I think it is a pivotal game. The Bears are in a must win situation if they want any hope of playing in a BCS game. They need to win each game from here on out - which will be very tough. They have lost two games - both of them winnable in the last drive, where the Quarterback has made poor decisions.

Arizona State, on the other hand, has won all of it's games with some ease, although against some much weaker opponents. The three toughest tests so far for the Wildcats have been Colorado (who did beat Oklahoma), Oregon State (who beat Cal) and Washington State. They played fairly poorly against Colorado, but still had the wherewithal to win easily in the second game of the season for them. They also beat what I think is a pretty decent Oregon State team, when Canfield (the OSU QB) threw 5 interceptions after bringing the Beavers to a 19 point lead in the first quarter, and a 26 - 13 lead late in the third quarter. The final score was 44 to 32, and the Beavers gave the game away. They squeeked out a win at Washington State 20-23 - rushing 45 times for a 1.8 yard average. That is worse than Cal last week at UCLA. Statistically, they are very inconsistent. Carpenter has a averaged a pick per game.

So both teams can have issues. The difference is that Arizona State has won their games, and the Bears have let two games get away from them. The Bears have also played and beaten more accomplished teams this year - like Oregon and Tennessee.

There is a lot of discussion about how Tedford has never lost three in a row, how we have owned Arizona State over the past few years, how they always fold at the end of the season. All of those are silly at this point. The real issue is, who is the better team, and how are the team playing right now.

I would bet that Erickson has his team pretty loose now - they are pretty happy, number 4 in the land. But this week, there is real pressure for the first time this season. Clearly, Erickson is a good coach. And clearly he is a good strategist. He does not lose his cool. On the other hand, the Bears are kind of up against the wall. They have to win. They also have some pressure.

The difference is that this is an experienced Cal team. I hesitate to say that after the last two weeks. But it is true. And that experience comes from going to Oregon and winning, going to Tennessee last year, playing in the Holiday Bowl and kicking ass. They have played in a lot of big games recently. And they have been successful. In fact, I would say that the games that they have looked the best over the course of the last year have been in the big games. This year, Tennessee and Oregon were better than Colorado State and Arizona. What the Bears have shown is the propensity to drop down for less than big games, and get taken to the cleaners, like they have done in the past. It is unknown how Arizona State will handle the pressure. Under Koetter, of course, they would fold like a house of cards. Erickson is probably different. I am thinking it will be more like a sandcastle at the beach.

Arizona has been a big play team this year - if we can hold them to long, sustained drives they will make mistakes and turn the ball over. I know that is advocating for Gregory's bend but don't break defense. I think in this scenario it will work. We do need to pressure the QB more than we did the last two weeks. This is particularly true since the starting running back is out for them, and Carpenter (their QB) makes mistakes. If we can pressure them, we may be able to blow this open.

The good news is that the Arizona State defense is not that good. We should be able to score very well against them. I think we will put up a lot of points. I also think that we hold them to under 30 with Torain out for them. I predict a score like 45 to 30 give or take a two points in either direction. We have struggled offensively when we have not been able to run, but that is not the case here - we should be able to run and pass on them.

The bottom line - if the Cal team that we know should be playing this year shows up, we win easily. If we have the team that looks lethargic and uninterested, like they did against UCLA, then we lose. I hope the coaches make it fun this weekend down in Tempe - the kids should have fun and get a great win for the program. Arizona State is looking at the final 5 games of their schedule with dread - Cal, UCLA, Oregon, USC and Arizona. That is a tough stretch. They know it. The pressure of the top 4 ranking in the BCS is a lot of pressure. They know it. I think they give one up. They are not experienced to win in these situations and the Bears have been. After the last two weeks, this is a test for the Bears, where they have to look inside themselves and prove that they are the players they think they are.

GO BEARS!!!

UCLA Recap

I have been traveling so I have not had time to rewatch the UCLA game. However, here are my thoughts based on being there and some statistical analysis.

First, I think everyone has agreed that the playcalling has been a little conservative. Jeff Tedford has somewhat defended his play calling, confirming that the loss was an execution loss, not a strategy loss.

Similarly Gregory indicated that the defense was not going to make changes, that the defense was fine, that we needed to be better at what we do, not change what we do. In fact, he kinda called out his guys, saying that they needed to play with more passion. I agree. They certainly did not look like they cared they were losing last week. Sometimes that is good - it is called confidence. But sometimes that is bad and indicates a lack of caring. I guess winning and losing sort of defines whether it is good or bad.

Clearly the game is a different outcome with no turnovers for the Bears. Once again, the key blunder of the game was a boneheaded play by the QB which changed the outcome and lead directly to the defeat. When you rely on 20 year old players to take you to the National Championship game, you are going to be bitten quite often. And JT does rely on his QB for a lot of the offense to work correctly. I think that is a blessing and a curse with him. He is a former QB who builds his offense around the current QB. Nate is a passer, and therefore he has build the offense around a traditional run-run-pass format which does not always work. It is a bit old fashioned, and good traditional defenses can sometimes stop you.

We do have tremendous other talents that seem to be going to waste. At the beginning of the game, JT would put in Best to go outside, and Forsett to go inside. It seemed like JT was really concerned about running, and wanted to ensure that we could get outside quickly, so he went with our fastest player. I think that was a good move. But we went away from that after the first quarter (Best did fumble). But probably a better move would have been to have a lot more passing more consistenly thoughout the day.

For example, the second drive, where we went straight down the field was almost exclusively pass plays. So he was trying to set up the run based on his passing. But passing works when you do it consistently. For example, you can not only pass on 3rd down. You only make 2 of three 3rd downs when your passer is getting 67%, like Nate did on the day. You need to pass on first and second and third down to move the chains. And, after the first score, we did not do that. JT felt he had loosened up the defense, so he was going back to establish the run.

The thing about it is, when you are effective passing, it moves the backers down field, it opens up holes. If you get 8 yards on a first down pass play, you have a lot more options on second down. By we more often than not were in second and 8. Running on second and eight is not a recipe for a successful third down. During the game, when the Bear passed on first down, they scored (or else missed the field goal). The times when the Bears consistenly ran on first down, we failed to connect.

This held true even when the pass on first down was incomplete. When the Bears were in a passing rhythm, they scored. When they were beholden to running the ball, they failed to score.

Well, guess what - UCLA has a good defensive line. We knew this. It was going to be a problem running against them. But if they are pass rushing every down during the first quarter, they are going to get tired. They aare struggling to go uphill, as opposed to just holding thier ground. So when we need to run out the clock in the third quarter, they are tired, and our offensive line, who has just been trying to hold them back all game, now has some energy to push them down the field against a tired defensive line. That is how we win games in Tedford's tenure. And that is what we did NOT do on Saturday.


That being said, we were still only ten yard away from winning the game on an easy field goal. JT put Nate in a terrible position by only putting two wideouts with 4 DBs on them on the left side on third and 10 at the 34. We needed yards. So Nate had to force the pass. What Nate should have done is called timeout and gone to the side to talk about it. It was a terrible set - we had 8 guys in to block the pass rush, and only two out left. They had 7 guys rushing and 4 out on the wideouts. So it was a recipe for disaster, and disaster struck.

There is no reason not to call a timeout in that situation. That should have been seen by the coaches and they should have called it. Oh well.

I am not going to comment on the defense. It is not pretty to watch, and it gives up a lot of yards. But, frankly -they only gave up 23 points on the day. We should have won that game if the offense was working properly. It was not, and so we lost.

We still have a lot to play for and I think we will be in the hunt at the end of the year for the Pac 10 Championship. Lets see how this weekend goes.

GO BEARS!!!

A little light at the end of the tunnel

In reviewing the rankings, schedules, and other predictions, it is clear that Cal can still make the BCS and possibly the Rose Bowl.

I think the only thing that happened this week was that Cal was dropped from National Title consideration.  Had we won, we would have been in the top 7, most likely.  Beating Arizona State would have probably brought us into the top 5 or 4.  We would have been back in the thick of it, going into the USC game.  That would have been fun.

Now, we need others to lose.  Frankly, the top teams in the conference, UCLA, Arizona State, USC, Oregon and Cal all have the ability to win the league.  And all have the ability to face plant.  The race is on in the last 6 weeks of the season.  The only team that has played two of those top teams is Cal, and we are 1-1 (UCLA and Oregon).  We play USC and Arizona State. USC looks beatable this year, and Arizona State has been untested for the most part.

Arizona State must beat the Bears, USC, UCLA, Oregon and their local rival, Arizona.  I can see them losing two of those games.

Oregon must still play Arizona State, USC and UCLA.  I can see them losing one of those games.

UCLA must play USC, Oregon and Arizona State.  I can see them losing two of those.  If there is anyone with the inside track, I think it is UCLA, though.  Wouldn't that be a hoot.  If they win the Pac 10 do we all of a sudden think this was not such a bad loss?

UCS must play at Cal, at Oregon and at Arizona State.  They also have UCLA at home, and Oregon State.  I think that is a pretty tough schedule.  I can see them losing another one - to Cal - at least.  Probably two more.

Assuming Cal does win out (beating ASU, USC and Oregon in the process), they most likely will be Pac 10 champs.  We need ASU to lose one more, and UCLA to lose two more.  Based on that scenario, Cal would get the nod to go to the Rose Bowl, based on the tie-breaker.  This assumes that UCLA is not the only other 7-2 team.  I can see three or even 4 this year.  Cal beating three of the top 4 would be a good place to be in that tie-breaker scenario.

This would be like when Stanford went to the Rose Bowl back in 97 or 98.  The Pac 10 sucked then - now it is because everyone is good.  But in any case, there was a lot of parity.  A 7-2 team can go.

I do not want to hear about how if Cal can't beat UCLA and Oregon State they can not make it.  We already beat the best team in the conference (Oregon).  Any week anyone can win.  So let's think positively here.

Go Bears!!

Dump Tedford Campaign

I'll admit, I am a little disappointed in the game result, and how we played yesterday, and more importantly, how we coached.

That being said, all of these Dump Tedford comments on the boards and in the the papers comments, etc are ridiculous.  What are you guys smoking?  Jeff Tedford is a great coach for Cal Football.  He does everything right for the Bears.  Except sometimes he is a bit too conservative and some don't like his defense.  Let's be clear - there is a hell of a lot more to running a football program than winning.  Ask Oregon State, or Washington State, about Dennis Erickson.  That is the alternative to Cal football.  A coach who wins at all costs, and you are embarrassed to have the players represent your school.  Idaho had to let about 25% of the football team go after Erickson left because they were so lacking in any ability to function in a positive way.  Do we want to be like Miami in the 80s and 90s?  I do not think so.

Jeff Tedford represents the school as well as anyone else possibly could, in academics, with class and dignity.  And he has the same high standards for his players.

If we win 9 or 10 games this year, we will know we could have done better, but when was the last time you were seriously in the national title consideration three times in the last four years?  If that is not good enough for you, too bad.

That being said, there is still plenty to discuss.  I will have a game analysis up by tomorrow, and try to figure out where we stand in the broader scheme of things.  Had we won, we would have been right in the title hunt.  As it stands, I do believe that there will be only one team with an undefeated season, and that will be Hawaii.  And they may not make a BCS game.

The Pac 10 seems to be the toughest conference this season, with three teams in the top 10 and Cal and UCLA in the top 25.  The Bears need to be a team to win out.  Let us hope they can be one.

That was U-G-L-Y

I can't decide whether to laugh or cry. This was the week to win and get back into contention. Instead, we fell totally out. Our season eight short days ago was in the pink of health.

I still believe that we have a great team. I think we have great players and great coaches on that team. I simply do not understand what happened today, except that the team lacked the courage to win.

What I mean by that is Jeff Tedford played scared. He was afraid to play Kevin Riley, even though Nate Longshore was clearly injured. And he was afraid to let Nate pass. He took very few shots down field. We get 67 yards from 30 rushes. Guess what - stop running the ball and score some points. We never win unless we score 30 or more. For the second week in a row, we forgot how to score.

This looked like Alabama against Georgia 1965. Where did the innovative offense go? The team was afraid to win. In the 4th quarter, Nate's interception was the first downfield pass. Why is that? Starting in the third quarter, JT was bringing in two backs to help with the pass blocking. We are sending two guys downfield. Well, it is pretty hard to win doing that when they have four guys on our two. Of course you are going to be picked off. Essentially, JT was afraid that his offensive line couldn't cut it. He was over-protecing Nate, worried about the future. He was in it to get through this game, not to win it.

This was not a situation where we lost because of execution. Yes, we did lose because we did not execute, but we mostly lost because the coach choose not to win. This is by far the most disappointing coaching game of Jeff Tedford's tenure. He seemed to be so shell shocked by last weeks game that he decided to play it as safe as possible. He turned into the Mike Nolan of College football. If you do not trust your team to make the plays, you can not coach.

But don't take my word for it. Here is how it worked out:

30 rushing plays - 67 yards (2.4 YPC). 13 total drives. That is rush twice (5 yards, third and five), pass once, punt. We rushed on first down every time but once. I think they figured it out. Second and 15 - draw play up the middle. Why? Is DeSean Jackson so lame he can not catch a ball? No - he has a monster game (the only Cal player who seemed like he wanted to win). So what was the problem? Jeff wanted to protect his QB. We had 8 of the 13 drives with 4 or fewer plays. Not going to win a bunch of games like that.

The defense gave up 23 points. Not too bad. They stopped them 4 times for three and outs in the second half, or recovered the fumble. Patrick Cowan had a good game, and they had more big plays than Cal has given up all season. But essentially, the defense held. If we score more than 21, we can win this game.

Nate actually had a pretty good game as well. The problem is, he had to throw into coverage because we onloy had two receivers on the field most of the game. Tedford was really nervous about the offensive line. And not having Robert Jordan really hurt us, because apparently we do not have anyone else who can play receiver.

And now, who cares. What they were playing for is now essentially lost. There is no Rose Bowl, no National Title hunt. UCLA is two games ahead of us in the Pac 10 race with five left to play. I guess the Bears really were pretenders, as Steward Mandel said. If we win 10 games again, that would be great, but I really though we were better than that. Oh well.

Maybe I am over-reacting. But JT really has to look at himself after these last two games. You need to play to win. And they are not doing that.

Off to Southern California

I am off in the morning to Southern California for a day of Golf, and a weekend of Victory. At least, I think I am. I have to say that after last week, I was pretty calm, cool and collected after the game. In fact, I was almost happy. I was happy because although we lost, I was glad that we lost to a team that was not going to kill us in the conference standings, that we would be able to move forward and still get to the National Championship game, and certainly the Rose Bowl if we perform the way that we should. And also happy that Kevin Riley looked good (except for The Obvious). I generally am an optimist. So, in all, I was happy that it was not as bad as it could have been, and that the train can still run down the track.

This week is different. Let me be clear - if we lose this week, I am not sure if I will be able to live anymore. We have to beat these guys no matter what. They are kind of a joke in a way with their erratic play and their soap opera coaching issues. This will be a pretty messy weekend in SoCal if the Bears lose - I envision long, dreary, drunken depression - just like after the 2004 and 2005 and 2006 games down there. While I know UCLA can be a good team - this is part of the Bears putting them behind us for good. We need to do that and move on with our lives. The divorce is final.

I will try to get some posting done while on the road.

GO BEARS!!

South Florida - Yeah!!

Now they know what it is like to be a Cal fan.  They take the number 10 spot, and we move up one.  That's nice.

Why Cal is Great

Here is why I think Cal is the best program in College Football right now.  It is the system.  And it is not what you are thinking.

Everyone thinks that JT is an offensive genius.  I guess he is.  But it is not because he is running this spread offense with a lot of gimmicks.  He is running a very traditional, pro-style offense that runs the ball right up the middle.  With a spread offense.  With a west coast offense.  With a single or double wing, options, etc.  He has taken all of the innovation in all of the different programs, and has done what he should do.  He has become the Microsoft of the football world (this is from a Mac guy) - he takes everyone else's innovations and he puts it in place, and jumbles it around, and confuses the hell out of defenses.  And all he is doing is looking for a small weakness that they can exploit.  If you look at the spread of the ball around the field over the course of the season, I bet it is all over the field, and totally balanced between run and pass.  There is no way for a defense to play it except for straight up.  And the same types of clowns who are looking for a more gambling style defense on our boards are coaching other teams, and so we score.

But it is not just the scheme.  He needs variable players.  By that I mean, he needs fast linemen who are also big, strong and athletic, and who are also very smart.  He needs speed at the edge, with a lot of brains.  He needs a QB who is very intelligent, who can run, who can think, who can throw the hell out of the ball, and be the type of player that is all things to all people.

He also is smart on defense.  He needs a bit of the same on defense that he gets offensively - smart players who play their position, who are capable enough to make the stop, who are smart enough to be where they are supposed to be, and who can be efficient.

What I mean is that unlike some swarming defenses, his is a position defense that relies on each person playing and making the plays, but he has additional protection.  They run a cover 2, they rarely stunt, they almost always keep their lanes.

Just like offensively, where he is trying to make the defense make a mistake, and find the edge, he does the same on the defense.  He is waiting for the offense to make a mistake.

The difference now is that he now has the players to be play his game.  It is a tough game.  Players need to be able to produce, or the whole thing can collapse.  Speed is critical.  There is a reason why JT loves Forsett.  He hits the hole fast, right where it is meant to be hit.  He gets through there.  Because Forsett relies on the linemen to do their jobs.  They are good at what they do - they have zone blocking schemes that minimize the reliance on hitting "your" guy and instead they play space protection.  It helps with getting Justin though the hole.  I am not saying that Marshawn was not good, but the fact is that Justin is more of a JT style back - fast to the assignment and lets get the 6 yards.  And every once in a while you get the 45 yards when the defense was blitzing or stunting.

If you saw Kevin Riley play last week, you know he is the prototypical JT quarterback.  Like Aaron Rodgers.  He is mobile, big and strong (can run the option), and has a rocket for an arm. 

It is nice to get big time plays from big time players.  What I love about JT is that he gets big time plays from guys who you did not think would be big time players.  Forsett, for example.  JJ Arrington.  Adimchinobe Echemandu.  Matt Giordano.  Burl Toler.    With Tedford, it is all about discipline, doing your job, and getting it done efficiently. 

When we do not play efficiently, that is the worst thing you can do.  If you fumble the ball, if you miss your assignments, if you miss tackles, you will be sitting.  But after 5 years, we are at the point where we have the players on the team who buy in, who are disciplined, and who are talented enough to get it done.

There are a few other programs where I think this is the case.  Perhaps LSU, West Virginia and Boise State.  I think we actually have better players than those teams.  Certainly West Virginia and Boise.  But you can see how the concept works well in both those teams.  Boise is, in it's league, the same type of team, and almost good enough to get to the next level, but just will never have the players.  West Virginia is also very good but does not have all of the better players that it needs.  LSU is more of a gambling defense, but they are all about speed.  Their offense is not as balanced - they rely more on the run game because their offensive linemen are not as athletic.  But they are a very good team.

USC is a team that is also very balanced, but gambles too much and relies on talent more than discipline.  It is a balance, but overall, I think Tedford's method will stand the test of time better.  Because talent does not always translate into upper division success.  You may have some great games from some talented people, but unless you get everyone working together, there are going to be some problems on the team from a performance perspective.  This year is a case in point.  They have a huge supposed talent advantage.  However, we know we are going to kick their ass, since out guys play like a team.  

With JT, I think it is clear that we are past the hurdle where we need to rely on JC transfers to help out with the QB slot - it takes too long to learn the offense for that to work.  We were lucky with Aaron Rodgers, but Joe A was not such a good deal.  We now have a great pool of talent to draw on for the future.

GO BEARS!!

UCLA Game

I am a bit concerned about the injury situation piling up.

Right now, we are down one QB, one Wide Receiver, one Tight End, one Corner Back, one Defensive End, and one Kicker.  In fact, our kicker is out for the year.

I was excited after the bye week, when everyone was supposed to get better.  But it seems like most of these injuries are lingering on.

I feel entirely confident that UCLA will be a victory (although Dorrell always pulls something out to make the folks down there think one more year may be OK).  They are hurting offensively and we should be able to put up points against the defense.   I do believe that JT will be a bit more aggressive this week, after giving Kevin Riley the week to calm down.  Nate Longshore will not start.  So we need to be strong here.

In reviewing the stats, it is interesting that DeSean Jackson had more passes thrown to him last week than Hawkins.  Hawkins just made the catches.  Before seeing that, I thought that DeSean just was not thrown to enough.  But that was incorrect.  After watching the game, I think I know what it was.  DeSean was in double coverage quite a bit.  While Riley was willing to throw his direction, he was not willing to put it where anyone could actually catch it due to the defenders.  I think that will change this week.  Either DeSean has an epic game, or else Riley throws some picks.

Riley is a bit of a cowboy, obviously.  I think he got a bit of humility after the game, but I am sure he will come out swinging.  That means he will either have a great redemption game, or else he will crap out.  Somehow I do not think he is the calm steady-eddy type of QB - he wants to win (and sometimes will make mistakes because of his overbearing confidence).  I remember in a high school game when I was a senior.  Our kicker was out, and the QB was the backup.  The coach asked him if he could make the distance.  It was about 48 yards.  "Absolutely" was the reply.   He had never made a kick more than 35 yards in practice.  Guess what - his kick went 35 yards.  But that is the type of QB that Riley is - very confident, very good, but may be a little more gambling that a Tedford QB normally is.  After the game, our coach said he wanted a confident kicker - might as well give it a shot.  Plus I think we were down by 28 at the time anyway.  

The one thing we do not know is how KR is away from home.  I think we have the idea that he will be nervous, less effective, etc.  We are conditioned because that is the Nate way.  That may not be the case with KR.  He is from Oregon, not Southern California.  He probably did not grow up wanting to play for the SoCal schools like many of the Bears.  I bet he does very well.  I bet DeSean and Kevin both have great games on a big stage.

The one great thing that we have not had happen this year is our offensive line has been very sturdy.  And they are playing well.  I believe they will continue to improve.  They are probably a bit embarrassed by the game last week - three sacks and a goal line stand against.  Hopefully that embarrassment will spur them to play a top-notch game against the baby bears down south.

They are going to probably start Cowan at QB, or possibly the walk-on third stringer, Bethel-Thompson.  If they do start Cowan, I doubt he will have the wheels that he had during the early part of the season.  If Bethel-Thompson starts, Sayonara Bruins.

In either case, it is important that the Bears give a good early rush to get the QB out of synch.   UCLA has had a pretty poor offensive showing this year, only reaching more than 400 yards twice (Stanford and Washington) and being held to less than 300 yards twice (Notre Dame and BYU).  They are pretty inconsistent.  I guess that is the hallmark of a Dorrell team.  That being said, there is so much antipathy toward the Bruins from their fans at this point, I think that it would almost be a relief to them if Cal won.  I am not saying the players are feeling that.  But the impending doom scenario is pervasive and does get into the players heads.  That can be dangerous.  Or it can be a total collapse.

In any event, I think the Bears are by now so much a better team and program than the Bruins that this game should be a victory, even with Riley starting and the Bruins fighting for their lives.  Jerry Palm of CollegeBCS.com had the Bears winning by 47 points.  I am serious.  And he is generally pretty good. I will not go that far, but I do think that the Bears win by a good 21 points.  JT does not pile on.

Bears 42, Bruins 21

GO BEARS!!!

UCLA Game

I am putting OSU out of my mind.  And, on a rainy Tuesday, the game this weekend seems so much more sunny.

First off, it is interesting that there is currently no line.  I guess no one knows which QB will be playing for either team.  That is kinda fun. 

I am also excited that I will be at the game this weekend.  My buddy comes up from LA each home game, and I travel to the LA game each season.  It is always a fun weekend, although recently it has not turned out as well as we wanted.

Last year was particularly interesting:  Joe Kapp was our guest at the game in the Coliseum.  Wow, what a trip that was.  We got him into the Alumni Tailgate, and he got up and made about a 5 minute speech about the Scrotums, and how we were gonna kick their ass.  Then he gave the "Give me a C" cheer.  I though some of the old lady blues around us were going to faint at his obvious manliness and his colorful language.  A True Bear.  Go Joe.

Anyway, during the game, it was interesting to listen to Joe's commentary about the Bears.  I remember going to the games while Joe was the coach, and watching the continual run up the middle.  I guess we thought we would break one or something.  But I guess it make sense if you used all 4 downs like Joe did.  There was never a 4th down that Joe was not afraid to go for it on.  He had a ton of confidence in the Power of the Bear.  Maybe a little too much.  But, on occasion, he was right - like when we beat the snot out of Elway on his last college game with The Play, or once again beat the snot out of Stanfurd on Joe's last college coached game.  His son is now a Golden Bear, which I can not be more excited about.  With lineage like that on this team, we are sure to at least get a Rose Bowl bid.  In fact, Joe was the last one to bring us to the  Rose Bowl - Maybe we needed a bit more of the Kapp magic to make it back.  i won't say that Joe was critical of the play - calling.  But man, you could tell he wanted to beat those guys at the Coliseum.

Anyway, we lost the game at the Coliseum, but it was a day I will never forget.

This year, I am sure it will be different.  While UCLA is purported to have a great defense, it does not really add up.  They are the same players that we shellacked last year in Memorial.  I feel good about this game, as well as the rest of the season.  This is the year we get that monkey off our back in So Cal.  We won the Holiday Bowl by a lot - we are going to win by a lot this weekend, and we will win again on January 1.

I will be posting my pre-game analysis later - for now..

GO BEARS!!

BCS Rankings

Hey all you BCS buffs out there - the rankings are out.  And guess what - no one is yet eligible.

The rule is you need to be in the top 14 and have at least 9 wins to be eligible.  Cal needs 4 more victories.  Arizona State only needs two more.

The good news is, by the time we play those guys, they are still going to need two more, and so will we.

Here is the deal on the current ranking:

1) We are 12, based on an average 9/10 in the polls and a 15 in the computers.  That computer ranking is deflated a bit because we only have played 6 games (the computers calculate win/loss ratio - we are at a 17% disadvantage because we have only played 6 games).  When we play next week, we will move up assuming we win, as other teams take their bye weeks.  I predict that we break into the top 10 next week, even if no one loses in front of us.

2) We will probably move up anyway based on the team in front of us.  I do not think there is anyone ahead of us who will not lose another game, including LSU.  Just for a moment, assume that I am correct, and that Cal wins out.  We are in the NCG.  Probably playing Oregon.

3) Oregon actually could win out, along with us, and go to the NCG.  That would suck.  Especially if Michigan wins out and they beat Ohio State.

4) If Cal wins out, we want SC to lose to Oregon and beat Arizona State, and Arizona State to beat Oregon.  We would be the clear winner in the Pac 10, and I think go to the NCG.  Also, all of those teams would be in the 8 -17 ranking categories.

5) We also want Tennessee to win out.  Go Vols.

6) It would be nice if Colorado State would win a game.  What is up with those guys!

7) Jerry Palm of CollegeBCS.com has Cal in the Fiesta Bowl, assuming that we lose one more, and SC goes to the Rose Bowl.  That would be interesting.

Anyway, we have six weeks to go or so.  Two spots a week is all I ask.

Final Oregon State Stuff

I am not going to post a whole game recap or analyse the psychology of why a 20 year old kid made a big mistake on a big stage.  But I do have something to say about how the loss may effect the team over time.

First, the two teams in the BCS national Championship game will have a loss.  So it is not the end of the world.  I think the team knows that.  I do not think they will be down about this too long.

Second, JT now knows that Kevin Riley is the real deal.  I think that is big news.  He obviously thought that, but seeing it on the big stage is a lot more comforting.  He also knows that he will never make that mistake again (the one that shall be nameless).  So having Kyle Reed transfer was not a great thing, but not a killer.  And the team now knows that they have a backup who can lead the team to victory if Nate goes down.  That has to be comforting to them.

Third, now we know where Lavelle Hawkins pre-game comment came from - "I didn't even know Nate was not playing" - of course not - 197 yards on 9 completions.  He loves this Riley guy.

Forth - when they have 9 in the box on goal line, try to run something else.   I think that is a lesson learned by JT.  If Nate was in there, they would have done a QB sneak.  He did not trust Riley.  I do not think anyone has said that yet.

Fifth - when JT goes back to look at the film, he will see that putting points on the board is important.  We had two drives over 75 yards where we did not score.  Both of those were opportunities to kick the field goal, and we did not.  We went for it on 4th and 1 and went for it with 14 seconds left and no time outs.  I think he will become more conservative in the future after reviewing the film and stats on this game. 

Sixth - Our defense gives up somewhere around 30 points per game.  We need to score more than 30 to win.  We did not.  You can not go into the 4th quarter with only having 21 points on the board.

Seventh - with Kevin Riley in, you can't just run in the first half.  I know you are trying to establish the run, but 3rd and long each series is bad news.  The play after the long Forsett run, JT should have gone into the end zone with DeSean.  Instead, three nore plays up the gut and miss a field goal.  We had three series after that with the total yards gained of 5 yards.  That first quarter lost us the game - forget about all the stuff that came after that.  We did not hit them hard up front.  That should be a lesson learned.

Eighth - the defense played great.  Meaning that they played exactly how they were expected to play.  This is a tough conference - you are not going to hold anyone scoreless.  If the offense is inefficient, and turns the ball over, you are going to lose.  Ask Oregon State about that.  Our defense gave up two drives over 55 yards for scores.  That is a reasonable amount.  But Oregon State scored on three other short drives for two field goals and a touchdown because of turnovers and special teams errors.  That is a level of mistake making that will doom our team.  Even so, when we needed the stops, we got it in the 4th quarter - two three and outs to set up our game winning drive if we could have completed it.  I do not think anything about the defense changes.  And I can certainly tell you that JT is not going to change it just because a bunch of whiners on a board complain.

******

All in all, I think the team did fine.  We had some coaching mistakes and some execution mistakes, but Oregon State is a good team.  They have had too many mistakes of their own this year to win effectively.  I think they are a tough team to beat for many people.

That being said, I hope (and I think) that JT will start to get a bit more aggressive earlier in the game.  We need to execute cleaner, and we need to get the ball to our play-makers outside the box a bit more.  I like to think that will all happen.

Going on the road to UCLA, it will be interesting.  I am not sure if Nate plays.  I am thinking that he does not.   I hope that does not give JT pause and he limits our playbook.  We have a great team and we need to all parts to be clicking.  

Finally, I love how he said that the team picks the coaches up after a loss.  I know he has that knot in his stomach from Tuesday night to Kickoff.  And he get's depressed after a loss like this.  Hey, guys, he is just like us.

Actually, after this game, I am more a believer than ever.  I really feel like out team and the future of the program is in great shape.  We have great players AND backups at all positions.  If we could have gotten the win, of course, that would have been wonderful, and we would have been the number one team in the land.  But that doesn't mean a thing until January 7th.  So let's get there.

AAAAAARRRGHH

Now you know how Oregon fans felt.

Let's hope the Bears can come back like Oregon did and beat the crap out of UCLA next week.

I was hopeful that Kevin Riley could come in and do a good job today for the Bears and get some much needed game day experience.  And he did do a good job for the most part.  Good enough to win the game, frankly.  And this is an experience that he will never forget.

But poor efficiency in a few areas killed us.  Three turnovers vs. one for the Beavers.  Three sacks vs. one for the Beavers.  Getting out returned and losing the ball on a kick-off.  Our Special Teams were supposed to be special - today they were average at best.

Statistically, we crushed these guys.  But turnovers and crucial mistakes killed us.  Missing a field goal - pretty far field goal but certainly Kay has the foot for it.  Another ticky-tack call on the out of bounds hit that gave them the final field goal position - clearly the wrong call since every ref within 40 yards immediately backed up the crappy call by throwing their flags.  

Going into this game, I think I was more nervous than any other game this season.  They are a tough team which has given us fits in the past.  But we should have won and we did not.

There were two coaching areas where I felt we made mistakes.  First, we did not let Riley out of the box until it was too late.  We were passing on third downs, not first downs.  And mostly, we were passing on third and long.  That is not a recipe for success for your first time starter.  At the end of the game the passing / running ratio was balanced, but that hides the fact that we were heavily into running the first half, and heavily into passing the second half.  And he did a good job passing. 

We needed to come out strong and put points on the board, and we did not do that.  This was a game where you have a young guy out there - run some gadget plays and get something going to take the other team out of it and give your guy some confidence.  But it seemed like JT did not have confidence in Kevin Riley early in the game and he babied him.  I think that came back to bite us.

Secondly, of course, at the end, the coach should have run in the field goal unit.  Whether or not you actually kick a field goal, at least on third down you have a second chance if there is a bad snap.  I actually was thinking to run in the field goal team and try a fake - Van Meter to Stevens on a fade.  I have never seen us do one - it would have been the perfect time.  But that was not to be.  

All that being said, I still think the Bears are in the hunt.  We shall see, but I bet we are in the top 9 after today and the other teams games.   I doubt many people move us behind Oregon, at number 9.  A lot of the press blame the game on a freshman mistake which is going to be going away, etc.  And LSU lost as well.  So I think people may give us a gimme since we had the kid in there.  Or maybe I'm crazy and we drop 20 spots.  But there are 7 weeks left.  And BC and South Florida are not going to the big game.  If we can stay in the top 10, we then play Arizona State, who will be a top 12 team, and USC, who will be a top 10 team.  We will move up well if we can do that.

In a season where everything was falling our way, the ball once again bounced to Oregon State, who, for the third time in 5 years, have ended out 10 game home winning streak.

Go Bears!!

Oregon State and Injuries

Well, I have not posted since I have been on a three day field trip with my son to the Marin Headlands Institute.  It was pretty fun, especially the part where we were hiking in the rain all day yesterday.

I was thinking about the Bears, though.  And I came to a conclusion that I would like to see Kevin Riley start, and actually play the whole game today.  I would love to see him get a great experience and come in and win one.  It is a home crowd, it is against a team who we should beat, and he has been coming off a bye week, so he has had two weeks to practice with the first team.

Nate apparently was hobbling around practice on Thursday.  When he was injured at Oregon, I thought he was done for the season.  He looked pretty banged up and it seemed like we were lucky to get out of there with a win after that.  In other words, we do need a quality back up in case Nate does not complete the year for us.  And that is Riley at this point.  He needs the experience.

That being said, I think Riley plays at least the first half.  If we are ahead comfortably, he plays the whole game.  If we are behind, I think Nate comes in during the second half.

The other issue that I am really concerned about is Ezeff - he has been a leader on the team and he has a strained quad - the same injury that Schneider has, and that has taken a while to heal.  I think Ezeff has been a big leader for us and it will be bad if he is out for a long time.  Hopefully we can get through this week without him.

Will To'ufo'oa is still out, and Rulon Davis and Schneider.  So that is five players who start who are not playing.  That should be a pretty big deal.

What I love about this team is that it is not really that big of a deal.  We have great backups in all slots that have proven themselves, except Kevin Riley.  Hopefully this is the game where Riley proves himself.  If he can, I really feel like we have a team that is a championship team.

*********************

I have made a decision to put all of the history about these two teams out of my mind - I don't care that OSU has won at Memorial the last three meetings, nor that we have won up there the last two.  Frankly because I do not think the players care that much.  But I do think that Oregon State is a much better team than their record, except for one thing.  The huge amount of turnovers is pretty impossible to get over.  Cal is hugely positive on the turnover side, and OSU is hugely negative.  There is a theory that turnovers are random events and that they should not be used in analysis.  But if you have a QB that has thrown 13 interceptions, and if he does not improve, then you are going to continue to lose.  Compare that to Nate, who has thrown only two all season (oh yeah, Nate is not going to play).

The 5 or 6 muffed punt turnovers are something else.  I think that if you start to get into a rut in something like that it is hard to stop.  Every time the ball comes, you think - DON'T DROP THE BALL!!!  So of course you drop it.  I think in those instances drops beget drops.  Dropping a punt three times in a row is not random - it is a real problem.  And with Jahvid Best coming at you at the speed of sound...

I can see if it is a running back and they get hit, or if the ball gets tipped at the line and you get an INT that those could be random results.  Those are the types of TOs that good teams can sometimes have that can be game changers.  But Oregon State is a team where they actually have propensity to turn the ball over, which is not something that is easily changed.  And Cal is a really good team at getting turnovers.  So I think that just makes it worse on the opponents - they focus on avoiding TOs, which makes them do it more.  I really think the Bears get 4 or 5 TOs today.  Let's hope that our QB can avoid any, and I think we are good today.

Streaking

The Bears have won 10 at home in a row.  The last time the Bears won 10 in a row, Oregon State was the team that beat us to break the streak.  That was October 15, 2005.  We lost to USC the later that season as well, but have prevailed since then.  We have won 21 of the last 23 at home. 

The last time we won 5 to start the season was also 2005, when Joe Ayoob was starting.  We lost to UCLA at the Rose Bowl, and then Oregon State in Memorial.  Since this year those games are turned around on the schedule, I think the results will be as well.

This is also the first time where the Bears have scored 30 or more in 6 consecutive games.  The last time that happened was never.  That is pretty cool.  Expect to see that get to at least 10 this year.

If the Bears score more than 30, they generally win.  If they do not score 20, they almost always lose.  So here is hoping for an explosive offense this week.  

The Oregon State rush defense has been fantastic.  Here is hoping that Will Ta'ufo'ou is back.  We need his blocking up front.  I would love to see the Bears pound the ball through these guys and break their will.  Hopefully, we can get the running game going and keep the pressure off of Nate.  The ankle injury is a big mystery and I do not want to have to test it too much.  If we have to pass, Oregon State is an aggressive team, and can really hurt a QB.  We have had pretty poor success against these guys in years gone by (except for last year, which is good).  I guess the point is, I think they will come after Nate if he is in there, and I am hoping our run game can kind of carry us.  I think this is going to be the tougher of the next two games, particularly with UCLA relying on the yell leader for a QB.  Good thing it is at home.

Go Bears!!

Oregon State

Well, the Bears are pretty big favorites in this game - I think the initial line was 15.  It seems like Oregon State has lost to the powers that they have played - teams that are in the top 50 or so, and have beaten the other teams lower than the top 50.  These ranking numbers are taken from a composite of the computer polls making up the BCS standings.  Right now, Oregon State is ranked 57th out of the 119 teams in Division 1-A.

Looking further, we know that they can be a tough team - much tougher than Arizona, for example.  They have a gambling defense and offense.  They have good run defense.  They tend to leave their corners in 1 on 1 coverage situations, but have a strong rush which can make up for that and help to cause the offense to make mistakes.  They put up 412 yards per game, which is pretty respectable, compared to Cal's 430.

The difference is the Bears are more efficient.  We score 1 point for every 10.9 yards we gain, and they score one point for every 15 yards they gain.

On a game by game perspective, they have had some highs and lows.  The Utah game was a pretty good game for them - they came in and played tough, and Utah folded.  They held Utah to 18 yards rushing on 30 carries.  That is worse than bad.

Then, they went to Cincinnati and came out on the wrong end of a 34 - 3 loss.  The game was only 10-3 when Cincinnati went on a tear, scoring 24 points.  But 14 of those points were from punting errors - a blocked punt and a dropped punt.  14 points on 2 yard drives.  They also had a 55 yard field goal and a 50 yard pass.  So, other than those 4 plays, the game was very competitive. In fact, Oregon State had 310 yards, to Cincinnati's 229.  Those 24 points were all scored in 6 minutes at the end of the 3rd quarter.

They crushed Idaho State, which they should have (it is a bit of a rivalry for them right across the state line) and then they lost to a good Arizona State team.  They also lost to UCLA, on the back of three punt return muffs.  They were leading but then turned it over 5 times, to lose to the Bruins.  Mike Riley is now 0-9 against them.

They came back to beat Arizona pretty convincingly.

They have some pretty good talent playing for them offensively - Yvenson Bernard is a great back, leading the Pac 10 in rushing with over 640 yards so far.  Sean Canfield was a really good freshman QB last year, who is really sucking this year with 13 interceptions.  But he has the talent to be a great QB.  Sammy Stroughter is a great receiver who is not getting a ton of action so far this year because of his issue earlier in the year.  But he is probably in the top 5 of receivers in the Pac 10.

This is a team that has beaten us in 8 of the last 10 meetings.  They have won at memorial the last two times they have played us.  This is a game that, while we should win, can give us a bunch of trouble.  We need to minimize our mistakes, take away from them, and hold them to no big plays. 

We also need to come out fast.  I know that we have not done so this year too often (except perhaps against Tenn).  But Oregon has been ahead or close in most games this year, and has really failed to score in the second half.  Against UCLA and Arizona State, they were up 14 - 0 and 19 - 0 when the gates let open, and the opponents went to town.  They did not score against UCLA in the second half and they scored twice in the second half against Arizona State, but ASU scored 5 times.  They failed to score in the second half against Cincinnati, and even against Arizona, which they ended up winning anyway.

I think this is a sign of an undisciplined, poorly coached team that could come in here and kick some butt.  We need to be prepared.

I have every confidence that we will win convincingly.  But do not despair if we scrape it out with a 10 point win.  I think that would be a great victory for the Bears.  But it also could turn into a blowout if OSU decides to implode with another 5 turnover day.

Go Bears!!

Ap Update

Well, looking at the AP voters, it is clear there is a bias.  Against the Bears.  By Ray Ratto.

He and Scott Wolf of the LA Daily News are the only writers in the west to put Ohio State in number 2.  I guess they are doing it to preserve their Journalistic Integrity.  What a load of crap.  How can you put Ohio State in number 2 - they have beaten NO ONE of note.  Cal has beaten at least two top 25 teams (including a top 10 team on the road).  Oh year, the guy from the Oregonian put us #3 as well - he must be a Oregon State homer.  I guess we can change his mind this weekend.

At least the guy from North Carolina who put South Florida in number 2 had the intelligence to put Cal 3 and Ohio State 4. 

The guy from El Paso who had the Bears 13 last week corrected his ballot, and put us in #2.  He also made up for his error by moving Ohio State to #4, after South Florida.

As you can imagine, Ohio State received most of their second votes from the mid-west and the north-east.  The interesting thing is, not a single of the three votes from the state of Ohio went with the Buckeyes.  It must be that they are trying to make up for Ratto's silliness. 

BCS update

Well, as the number 2 team in the country, I think it is time that we start updating BCS numbers each week.  Actually, I have done this even when the Bears were around 35, so it is no big deal...

But the interesting thing is, the poll where we are the strongest (the AP) counts for nothing in the BCS.  We are 2 in the Coaches Poll, and 2 in the Harris poll, but out lead in the Harris poll is only 11 points.

Here is how the Harris poll works:  there are 113 voters - each votes for 25 teams and the #1 team gets 25 votes, down to 1 vote for the 25th team.  Having a perfect vote for the Harris means that LSU gets all 25 votes for each of the voters, or 2,825 points. Under the BCS calculation, LSU has 100%, or a 1.0000 count for the Harris Poll.  Cal has 2,654 votes, or .9395 of the vote total.  Ohio State has 2,643, or .9356 of the t0tal.  In other words, even though we are two and they are three, it is virtually tied.

The Coaches Poll is similar - they have .9327 and we have .9440 - a bit better but not significantly.

The Computer Polls have a much bigger impact.  There are 6 computer polls, and the high and low are thrown out.  What is the statistical reasoning for this?  Who cares - a bunch of conference administrators made up the BCS formula.  There was no real thought about it.  However, it works like this:  Since there are only 4 remaining polls, the fluctuations can be pretty big.  If Cal averages a flat 3 in the computers, and Ohio State averages a flat 2, then Ohio State would get a big bump up.  They would get 96% of the points, and we would get 92% of the points.  Or, they would get .9600, and we would get .9200.  As you can see, the differences in the computers can make up a lot of ground vis a vis the voting polls.

In this situation, Ohio State would be behind us .0113 in the Coaches Poll, .0039 in the Harris poll, for a total of .0152.  But they would gain .0400 in the computers for that one place.  Therefore, they would have the higher BCS total of .0248 higher than us.

So it is easy to see how you can be 2 in all the polls, and 3 in the computers, and end up not getting into the Championship game.

So what does that do?  Say LSU and Cal were both undefeated, and Cal got jobbed by the computers, because everyone in the Pac 10 lost to Notre Dame and TCU.  Then, say Ohio State wins the LSU game in an ugly manner.  Cal crushes Florida at the Rose Bowl (or some other worthwhile victim).  I can see the AP awarding the National Championship to Cal.  We were number 2, the number 1 team lost, and we beat a very good number 4 team.

Anyway,  you can see how this can have nasty outcomes.  The current situation is that Cal is currently number 5 in the computers, Ohio State is number 3, and if the seasons ended today they would go to the National Championship game.  We really need to hope that Colorado State and Louisiana Tech win something, as well as Tennessee.  Because we need the help we can get.  Ohio State playing in the weak Big 10 is good for us, but they are playing the better of the Big 10 teams.  So we need to be prepared to get the style points, and to put separation between us and Ohio State in the polls.  Hopefully their loss next week against Kent State will do that for us...

I want to note that all BCS data comes from Jerry Palm's excellent site, CollegeBCS.com

Go Bears!!

Polls

Well, its official - Cal is the number 2 team in the country.  We have a solid lead over Ohio State in both polls.  With Ohio State playing Kent State next week, we have a good opportunity to crush the Beavers and move into a solid top 2 position.

The Pac 10 now has 4 teams in the top 15.  UCLA has dropped pretty much out of the polls (they still have 2 votes in the Coaches, but that is probably from Tedford and Carroll).  Stanford now has 4 votes in the coaches - Wow!  I guess there are 4 Pac 10 coaches voting.  But it does show that the Pac 10 is a tough conference and that anyone can lose any week.

It is good to see Tennessee get back on the board after their pounding of Georgia.  I would love to see them win out, and get to the top 10.  Of course, that means Cal should be number 1 if that would happen.

The biggest disparities between the polls is for South Carolina, who is #7 in the AP and #12 in the coaches.  I guess the Coaches do not like Spurrier.   Also, USC is #7 in the Coaches and 10 in the AP - but the vote total in the coaches is actually pretty close - only 87 votes between 10 and 7 in the AP.  That is generally the difference between one or two places on the poll.  They could win next week and drop just as easily as they could rise.

It is a giddy time to be a Bear fan.  Enjoy.

Go Bears!!

What a weekend

Wow - how about them Cardinals?  Face Man Pete couldn't bring himself to cross the field to shake Harbaugh's hand, and the Trojans drop to oblivian in the polls.

For the second week in a row, two of the top 5 lose, and others almost tumble.  LSU almost loses to Florida (looking pretty vulnerable there, LSU - I think Florida wins that game at home).  And South Florida almost loses to Florida Atlantic - who missed three field goals in the first half. 

Meanwhile, Nate's ankle and Zacks stinger get better each day. 

And who is going to win the Heisman?  PJ Hill from Wisconsin?  John David Booty?

I have to say that there are two teams this year that I have seen play that have seemed to play well all year long.  Those teams are Cal and Ohio State.  Ohio State has not been tested, now will they be all year long.  I think that, like every year, LSU stumbles.  I see Cal and Ohio State in the National Championship game.  And if that is the case, I do not think it is even close.  No offense to Ohio State - they are a well coached disciplined team which thrives in the Big Ten.  But they are not built to play against a team like the bears.

Meanwhile, back in the Pac 10, UCLA embarrasses themselves, and in the process, the rest of the conference.  While Stanford was out making like a real football team, UCLA lost to the Brady Bunch.

This is bizarre.  I am not used to being a fan of a team that looks like the best in the land.  But I have the same feelings like I used to have when Joe Montana used to run the 49ers.  There just didn't seem like there was any way they were going to lose each week.  If they needed to they would just grind down the other team, put a big play up, or make a goal line stand - whatever it took.

The further along this season goes, and the more defective other teams show themselves to be, I really think this could be the year.

That being said, I almost hope that Ohio State is voted ahead of us.  That would give the team the incentive to crush everyone else out there.

GO BEARS!!

DeSean Jackson

There is a pretty good article (about three pages) about DeSean Jackson in Sports Illustrated Magazine this week.  It talks about his brothers, the filming, the USC decision, and a bunch of other stuff.  The Cal Heisman PR department did well.

Bye Week Relief

Well, I have to say that I am relieved with the Bye Week.  There was a lot of pressure last week on us poor fans, and although I am very glad we won, it just makes every week with a game so much more intense.  I know that this is the best thing about College Football - kind of like a game show where you have to get everything right, or you lose it all.  That is the situation that Cal is in with a number 3 ranking.  Not that the season would not be great if we finished 11 -2 with a top 15 ranking, but really, after you have tasted top 3, it would be a bit of a disappointment.

So having a bye week takes a bit of the pressure off.  I think that is good for the team, as well as the fans.  It gives a bit of time for some perspective.  And it allows us to breath a bit.

In fact, as I think about it, I would be very interesting if Ohio State to move up a spot this week while we were idle.  I wonder what the impact would be on the team - I think JT would simply say - you know you have nothing to do with it - the only thing you can do it win every game and then you force the issue.

At this point in the season, Cal is in the driver's seat - if we win every game, we will be the National Champions.  While that is sort of true every year, this is as close as we have ever come.  I think giving the team time off now gives them time to digest the new reality, and gives them time to focus on a critical week of practice next week.

The one interesting aspect of this is that the game that was traded to give us the bye this year - vs Washington - could be against a much improved Washington team with a more seasoned QB by the end of the year, in a pretty hostile environment.  I hope that does not come back to bite us.  But, clearly, the rest now is more important.

Possible BCS Total Collapse

It's bye week.  This is just a good time in the season to discuss the annual possible BCS total collapse.  What I mean by that is having three or more teams with one loss at the end of the year vying for the National Championship, or multiple no-loss teams being shut out of the game.

Right now, there are 11 teams that are 5-0.  Two weeks ago there were 30 undefeated teams.  There are an additional 34 teams that are either 3-1, 4-1, or 4-0.  All of those 11 undefeated teams have a very good chance of losing a game.  Of those 11 undefeated teams, there are three or four teams that most people think have the capability to go all the way.  LSU, USC or Cal, Ohio State or Wisconsin, maybe Boston College, maybe South Florida.

Odds are that BC or South Florida would not make the NCG if there was a 1 loss LSU, Florida, USC or even Cal in the mix.  Say Cal loses to UCLA at the Rose Bowl.  Then, they win out, and beat a one loss USC team.  That is a stronger team than an undefeated BC or South Florida team, and probably gets the nod over one of those teams.  And if Cal can, than USC or Florida certainly would.  

It is also possible that there are two one loss teams that can get it, over say two undefeated teams.  LUS and USC with one loss each, and Hawaii and Cincinnati go undefeated.  Everyone else has one loss.  I can guarantee that neither of those undefeated teams make the to game.

Hawaii would have a hell of a time getting in no matter what, with the 119th ranked strength of schedule, but Cincinnati is in a BCS conference.  In fact, right now the Big East has three undefeated teams:  Connecticut, South Florida, and Cincinnati.  I would expect none of those teams to make it to the NCG even if they win out.

It is also pretty likely that the Big 10 teams eat themselves up.  Perhaps Ohio State or Wisconsin make it through.  But there is a lot of football to be played and both teams have looked like they have issues.

LSU could lose on Saturday, and there is no way Kentucky makes it through without a loss.

As far as it goes, I could see SC losing to Oregon up there, and Cal losing to SC at home.  The tie-breaker would be that SC goes to the NCG, because their BCS rating would be higher (and the voters would have them higher since they lost later in the year).  What would be interesting would be to see who went to the Rose Bowl in that scenario - I believe that the Bears would win because we beat Oregon head to head.  But certainly there is a good chance that, like last year, no team makes it through the season unblemished.  Certainly the Pac 10 gets two BCS teams in this year.  In other words, if Cal wins all games but the USC game, I am pretty sure that we are guaranteed a BSC berth.

In any event, it is probably that all top teams will have a loss.  Then, the questions become, who is really the best.  And having the BCS setting the National Championship in that scenario is really bogus.  In fact, I could see having perhaps 10 1 loss teams, and perhaps one or two no loss teams, but those no loss teams were not strong enough to get into the game.  What a mess - but great for Bloggers.

So what is the answer?  Some would say playoffs.  For a host of good reasons, I think playoffs are wrong.  First, the season is too long as it is - too many injuries.  Second, it eliminates a whole group of teams from after season competition - the mid-range teams that enjoy going to a bowl game.  Now, the result is that 50% of all teams get to go to a bowl.  If you have a winning record, you pretty much get to go Bowling.  That is a pretty good end result.  And 25% of teams get a victory to end the season.  In a playoff competition, only one team ends with a victory.  Finally, it ends the nerve-racking result of the season-long playoff that we currently have, and the electricity that each fall saturday brings.

I guess the question is, who cares who the number one team is.  Three years ago, LSU won the BCS and USC won the AP.  That can still happen.  And I think the AP is a legitimate title.  I could have the Oskitalk National Championship trophy, and give a $50,000 check and a nice trophy, and I am sure some University would be happy to accept it.  There is not a lot of legitimacy in the Bowl Series, or the AP, or anything else, except for a true playoff.  And a true playoff would suck for college football fans and the college game, for that matter.

If they really wanted to make money, put the students through the grind, license the hell out of the playoff series, make it 32 teams, and keep the 12 regular season games.  That would be 17 games for the champion.  Who would really want to travel to the 5 post-season games for their teams?  Which fans really have that deep of pockets?  It would turn into a corporate event, and college atmosphere would just not be there.  The Bowls would be gone, along with all of the tradition and fun that goes along with them.

The plus one thing is a crock as well.  What if the Bears made it through the Rosebowl, and were invited to the second game in the series.   Then Nate falls down on New Year's Eve and breaks his leg.  And we lose.  Is that indicative of the quality of the team that we were for the entire season, or is it just a war of attrition?  The 12 game season is long enough - I would feel cheated if we had to win two more games to get to the top.  

As it is, the post-season practice and time from the last game to the bowls is a benefit to the teams that make it and give the players time to heal up.  The bowls themselves are a crap shoot - look what happened to Ohio State last year.  While I think Florida was certainly a better, faster team, that game does not play out that way on December 10 or 17.  Or, for that matter, does Cal lose to Texas Tech in the same way.  The layoff effects teams in different ways.

I guess what I am saying is that the most legitimate thing about all of this is winning your conference.  The conference championship should be a bigger deal than it is.  And then if you get to go to a big game, like a BCS game, that is great.  But enjoy it.  If you get screwed out of going to the big one, complain to the AP - they still may vote you in.  If they don't - hire Mack Brown - he seems to have some pull there.  In any case, it is not likely that a playoff and the randomness of that process would have solved the issue.

Go Bears!!

Thoughts about the Bears

Treetards

First, the good news is that the Tree Sitters were evicted today.  Now, it is up to the University to implement the order.  I do not think that they will do so right away.  They are going to wait until the other court case is finalized, and then move in during the middle of the night, and move the tree-sitters out, following immediately with the construction crews.  It will be a one-night event.  Wait for the national news coverage.  But the good news is that it will not be the UC police who will be carrying this order out, but the Alameda County folks.  That takes it away from a UC issue, which is good.

The subsequent protests can be held in Sproul Plaza, but as all of the regular students walk by and look and laugh, I think that it will be a short lived issue.

Protesting over landscaping is pretty lame.  Particularly when we have a war going on.  What is wrong with this picture?  The hippies in my day were much more together.  These guys are just publicity hounds who don't shower.  They have no idea what is going on. 

Later this month, we will have a poster who is going to lay out the facts about Global Warming and the trees in the grove, and how cutting the trees down is actually helping alleviate Global Warming.  That should be fun.

Injury Update

It sounds like Justin Forsett is pretty banged up with the ankle that he mangled against Tennessee.  JT is going to have him sit for the next two weeks to let it fully heal.  I am sure that Nate will be sitting as well.  Zack F will also sit out for the next week or so to fully heal his stinger.  I know that Justin Forsett had a stinger as well in the CSU game, and came back right away, but time off should be good for both his ankle and his back, and hopefully minimize future possibility of injury.

Hopefully Rulon Davis can make a comeback at the OSU game.  That remains to be seen.

Obviously having the week off and then playing Oregon State, who we should beat, is a good thing.  The one issue with playing a team that you should beat is that they know it, they want to play tough, and if you have a bunch of guys who did not practice, it makes it hard.  I would almost say that this could be our trap game.  We go to UCLA the next week, OSU is reeling, but they are essentially the same team that won 10 games last year, and we have been resting up and going on ESPN sportline, and taking interviews.  Maybe a lack of focus will be evident.

I think this is the game where the fans have to step up.  We need to have this baby sold out, and support the future number 2 team in America.  We need to make it loud, and give the boys some energy.  After all, they have been playing their hearts out for us.  I think this will be a tough game.

As far as the injuries go, I am thrilled that Montgomery and Riley will be taking the bulk of the snaps in practice with the first team.  We have a great team, but with Nate out, we clearly need something better than running against 9 in the box.  If Riley cannot throw, why was he second string over Reed?  I am sure he is good, just green.  We need to get him some experience.  I don't want to go all crazy and say, let him start against OSU, but maybe give him a series or two in each half to see what he can do.  I mean, it's not like we don't do a three and out with Longshore on occasion.  What is the real risk?  7 points, and we need to bear down.  But if Nate goes out against SC or UCLA, we are done for the year unless we can get Riley some experience at some point before that.  OSU is the next best patsy that we have to get that guy some experience, and I think no matter what the score, we need to take advantage of it.  I think it would also be interesting to the OSU defense if we came in with him.  They would certainly blitz.  We run a shovel pass or screen and get 15 or 20.  Great for everyone's confidence.  And clearly if it was planned, it would not be like there was any sort of controversy or something. 

True Grit

The more I think about the game, the more excited I am about this team.  I mean, really - they went into a very tough stadium, which some have said was as electric as Neyland last year.  I went to Neyland, and I can not believe that - that place was wicked scary.  But in any event, it was pretty crazy - loud all day.  And we prevailed.  But we were tough.  This was not a pretty win where we got lucky on a bunch of long passes.  This was a tough defense and a tough offense, limited penalties, good special teams, and no turnover game.   We used to be the Oregon team  - fantastic players, big plays, but lose on a turnover or a bad penalty.  This was a pretty mistake free game for the Bears.  And, along with that, we had a number of bad calls on the day (for example three points that were not on the board), and we kept coming.  Defense was tired, going against the no huddle / run option which is a bitch to defend against.  But when it came to it, Ezeff made a great play, and the Bears won.  This is the type of win that top three teams win.

When Jeff Tedford came to Cal he said he was building a program to compete for the National Title and the conference championship.  It was 5 years of great recruiting, winning and losing some big games, and gaining confidence that we could.  Now, the mindset is, we have the tools and we have the game.  And we are playing with a chip on the shoulder.  We know we are good, and we are not going to let some pesky second tier team deprive us of what is rightfully ours.

I think that is the mindset that they need, and I saw that all over the game on Saturday.  That is the difference between this team and other teams in the past.  Before, we were excited to be there.  Now, we have been there, and we are working on keeping others out.  It really is our house.

Go Bears!!