But the interesting thing is, the poll where we are the strongest (the AP) counts for nothing in the BCS. We are 2 in the Coaches Poll, and 2 in the Harris poll, but out lead in the Harris poll is only 11 points.
Here is how the Harris poll works: there are 113 voters - each votes for 25 teams and the #1 team gets 25 votes, down to 1 vote for the 25th team. Having a perfect vote for the Harris means that LSU gets all 25 votes for each of the voters, or 2,825 points. Under the BCS calculation, LSU has 100%, or a 1.0000 count for the Harris Poll. Cal has 2,654 votes, or .9395 of the vote total. Ohio State has 2,643, or .9356 of the t0tal. In other words, even though we are two and they are three, it is virtually tied.
The Coaches Poll is similar - they have .9327 and we have .9440 - a bit better but not significantly.
The Computer Polls have a much bigger impact. There are 6 computer polls, and the high and low are thrown out. What is the statistical reasoning for this? Who cares - a bunch of conference administrators made up the BCS formula. There was no real thought about it. However, it works like this: Since there are only 4 remaining polls, the fluctuations can be pretty big. If Cal averages a flat 3 in the computers, and Ohio State averages a flat 2, then Ohio State would get a big bump up. They would get 96% of the points, and we would get 92% of the points. Or, they would get .9600, and we would get .9200. As you can see, the differences in the computers can make up a lot of ground vis a vis the voting polls.
In this situation, Ohio State would be behind us .0113 in the Coaches Poll, .0039 in the Harris poll, for a total of .0152. But they would gain .0400 in the computers for that one place. Therefore, they would have the higher BCS total of .0248 higher than us.
So it is easy to see how you can be 2 in all the polls, and 3 in the computers, and end up not getting into the Championship game.
So what does that do? Say LSU and Cal were both undefeated, and Cal got jobbed by the computers, because everyone in the Pac 10 lost to Notre Dame and TCU. Then, say Ohio State wins the LSU game in an ugly manner. Cal crushes Florida at the Rose Bowl (or some other worthwhile victim). I can see the AP awarding the National Championship to Cal. We were number 2, the number 1 team lost, and we beat a very good number 4 team.
Anyway, you can see how this can have nasty outcomes. The current situation is that Cal is currently number 5 in the computers, Ohio State is number 3, and if the seasons ended today they would go to the National Championship game. We really need to hope that Colorado State and Louisiana Tech win something, as well as Tennessee. Because we need the help we can get. Ohio State playing in the weak Big 10 is good for us, but they are playing the better of the Big 10 teams. So we need to be prepared to get the style points, and to put separation between us and Ohio State in the polls. Hopefully their loss next week against Kent State will do that for us...
I want to note that all BCS data comes from Jerry Palm's excellent site, CollegeBCS.com
Go Bears!!
1 comment:
Just to show you how crazy this all is - The Massey Computer Poll changed last night to include the Boise State game. Cal is now number 4 in the computers. But still number 3 in the preliminary BCS standings.
Post a Comment