Saturday, October 13, 2007

Oregon State and Injuries

Well, I have not posted since I have been on a three day field trip with my son to the Marin Headlands Institute.  It was pretty fun, especially the part where we were hiking in the rain all day yesterday.

I was thinking about the Bears, though.  And I came to a conclusion that I would like to see Kevin Riley start, and actually play the whole game today.  I would love to see him get a great experience and come in and win one.  It is a home crowd, it is against a team who we should beat, and he has been coming off a bye week, so he has had two weeks to practice with the first team.

Nate apparently was hobbling around practice on Thursday.  When he was injured at Oregon, I thought he was done for the season.  He looked pretty banged up and it seemed like we were lucky to get out of there with a win after that.  In other words, we do need a quality back up in case Nate does not complete the year for us.  And that is Riley at this point.  He needs the experience.

That being said, I think Riley plays at least the first half.  If we are ahead comfortably, he plays the whole game.  If we are behind, I think Nate comes in during the second half.

The other issue that I am really concerned about is Ezeff - he has been a leader on the team and he has a strained quad - the same injury that Schneider has, and that has taken a while to heal.  I think Ezeff has been a big leader for us and it will be bad if he is out for a long time.  Hopefully we can get through this week without him.

Will To'ufo'oa is still out, and Rulon Davis and Schneider.  So that is five players who start who are not playing.  That should be a pretty big deal.

What I love about this team is that it is not really that big of a deal.  We have great backups in all slots that have proven themselves, except Kevin Riley.  Hopefully this is the game where Riley proves himself.  If he can, I really feel like we have a team that is a championship team.

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I have made a decision to put all of the history about these two teams out of my mind - I don't care that OSU has won at Memorial the last three meetings, nor that we have won up there the last two.  Frankly because I do not think the players care that much.  But I do think that Oregon State is a much better team than their record, except for one thing.  The huge amount of turnovers is pretty impossible to get over.  Cal is hugely positive on the turnover side, and OSU is hugely negative.  There is a theory that turnovers are random events and that they should not be used in analysis.  But if you have a QB that has thrown 13 interceptions, and if he does not improve, then you are going to continue to lose.  Compare that to Nate, who has thrown only two all season (oh yeah, Nate is not going to play).

The 5 or 6 muffed punt turnovers are something else.  I think that if you start to get into a rut in something like that it is hard to stop.  Every time the ball comes, you think - DON'T DROP THE BALL!!!  So of course you drop it.  I think in those instances drops beget drops.  Dropping a punt three times in a row is not random - it is a real problem.  And with Jahvid Best coming at you at the speed of sound...

I can see if it is a running back and they get hit, or if the ball gets tipped at the line and you get an INT that those could be random results.  Those are the types of TOs that good teams can sometimes have that can be game changers.  But Oregon State is a team where they actually have propensity to turn the ball over, which is not something that is easily changed.  And Cal is a really good team at getting turnovers.  So I think that just makes it worse on the opponents - they focus on avoiding TOs, which makes them do it more.  I really think the Bears get 4 or 5 TOs today.  Let's hope that our QB can avoid any, and I think we are good today.

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