No - not the Bears. But it is looking increasingly like the Pac 10 champ will be Rose Bowl bound. Even if it is a perfect 12-0 Arizona State.
I did not think this possible earlier in the season. But the voters have Arizona and Oregon firmly behind Ohio State, Boston College, and one-loss LSU. Based on the poll here, and on my observations, I think that Oregon and LSU are probably the two best teams in the country. But Ohio State and Boston College could win out and make the Championship game without clearly being the best.
And do not say that a playoff would fix this - no one can tell me Colorado was the second best team in baseball, either.
But without these controversies, there would be no blogging, so...
Anyway, I think we can firmly plant the nail in the Bears coffin for a BCS game, although technically they still have a slim mathematical chance. For the Pac 10, it could be mass suicide and therefore impossible to get two teams in (which would cost the Bears $450,000 in BCS revenue for not getting the second team in). Now you know what the SEC feels like.
Here is how I think it shakes out:
Cal wins out, gets to 9 victories. We are not great, but we are not as bad as we have been playing, either.
Arizona State loses this week to Oregon. Besides the fact that Oregon is the better team, and team that tears down the goalposts after beating a team ranked 17 slots below them is not going to win many more. I think they also lose one more, going 10-2 on the season.
Oregon wins out, or else loses Oregon State, going 11 - 1 or 10-2.
I think Oregon State has a chance to win out. They still play USC and Oregon, so that is stretching it a bit. But they also have a very good defense and if they do not turn the ball over, they are very strong. USC is not all that, and Oregon at the end of the season will have a lot of pressure on, and they will be possibly playing to go the NCG. So that is a good time for them to lose.
USC I think loses to Cal and to Oregon State. I think they lose 4 games this year. That may be wishful thinking, but I think pretty realistic.
UCLA loses out. They do not have a QB who can walk. That poses a problem. They may squeek it out this week at Arizona, but they are dying out there. So they go 6-6 on the season, and Dorrell gets a 5 year extension.
In this scenario, I can not see more than Oregon getting the ticket to a big game. The interesting thing is that if Ohio State make the National Championship game, the Rose Bowl would be in the hazardous position of selecting the second place Big 10 team - or Michigan. That sounds familiar, doesn't it? I am not sure they would do that. But if they did, that would be fun to see. I could actually see Oregon crushing them, and then Ohio State winnning the NCG against Boston College. I could see the AP voting Oregon National Champs, depending on what happens to LSU. It would be even better if LSU went to the Rose Bowl - if the Ducks beat them, they definitely would have the share of the National Champ title from the AP.
See how fun it is now that your team is done? You can think about all sorts of crazy things again. I can ski over the winter break and not worry about how I was going to get the New Orleans, what to do with the kids, etc.
The sad thing is, in my scenario, the Bears could still be third in the Pac 10, with one or two teams ahead of us going to the BCS games, and the Holiday Bowl would still pick USC over us. And there is no way I am going to El Paso (although I would be happy to drive over the bridge to see the Bears in SF).
But it would be nice to finish over both SC and UCLA. So there is still plenty to play for.
GO BEARS!!
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2 comments:
While LSU is still a problem, I can guarantee you this: The polsters will not allow undefeated tOSU and BC to be in the championship game over a one-loss or zero loss Pac-10 or SEC team. Last years tOSU debacle against Florida will ensure that.
What everyone forgets is that the polsters don't vote for who they want in the BCS bowls until the last couple weeks. Before then it is all academic.
That's why Texas leapfrogged Cal in 2004. That's why Florida leapfrogged #3 Michigan in 2006 after USC lost. It'll happen again this year. Either LSU or Oregon/ASU will leapfrog the weaker of Boston College or Ohio State and play for the National Title game (assuming everyone wins out).
That could be true. But if LSU is the other 1 loss team, it will not be Oregon leapfrogging. Or certainly not ASU.
No matter what, people still like tOSU in the rest of the country. I could see BC getting screwed. But not Ohio State.
If LSU loses, you are suggesting that a 1 loss Pac 10 team will get there over, for example, a 12 win Kansas or Ohio State or BC. I do not think that will happen, frankly. It could all change, of course. But I think winning out is it's reward (except for Hawaii) and voters will reward an undefeated team. Florida played an undefeated Ohio State last year. But they were the only real undefeated team (Boise does not count). So anyone else could get there as number 2. People leapfrogged Michigan as they did not want to see that game again. But they will not put in a one loss team over an undefeated BCS conference foe this season where everyone looks vulnerable.
Your comment suggests that if Oregon wins out and LSU wins out, they supplant the top two or three undefeated teams. I just can not see that. I may be wrong but I think enough people will say you need to win to get there.
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