Right now, there are 11 teams that are 5-0. Two weeks ago there were 30 undefeated teams. There are an additional 34 teams that are either 3-1, 4-1, or 4-0. All of those 11 undefeated teams have a very good chance of losing a game. Of those 11 undefeated teams, there are three or four teams that most people think have the capability to go all the way. LSU, USC or Cal, Ohio State or Wisconsin, maybe Boston College, maybe South Florida.
Odds are that BC or South Florida would not make the NCG if there was a 1 loss LSU, Florida, USC or even Cal in the mix. Say Cal loses to UCLA at the Rose Bowl. Then, they win out, and beat a one loss USC team. That is a stronger team than an undefeated BC or South Florida team, and probably gets the nod over one of those teams. And if Cal can, than USC or Florida certainly would.
It is also possible that there are two one loss teams that can get it, over say two undefeated teams. LUS and USC with one loss each, and Hawaii and Cincinnati go undefeated. Everyone else has one loss. I can guarantee that neither of those undefeated teams make the to game.
Hawaii would have a hell of a time getting in no matter what, with the 119th ranked strength of schedule, but Cincinnati is in a BCS conference. In fact, right now the Big East has three undefeated teams: Connecticut, South Florida, and Cincinnati. I would expect none of those teams to make it to the NCG even if they win out.
It is also pretty likely that the Big 10 teams eat themselves up. Perhaps Ohio State or Wisconsin make it through. But there is a lot of football to be played and both teams have looked like they have issues.
LSU could lose on Saturday, and there is no way Kentucky makes it through without a loss.
As far as it goes, I could see SC losing to Oregon up there, and Cal losing to SC at home. The tie-breaker would be that SC goes to the NCG, because their BCS rating would be higher (and the voters would have them higher since they lost later in the year). What would be interesting would be to see who went to the Rose Bowl in that scenario - I believe that the Bears would win because we beat Oregon head to head. But certainly there is a good chance that, like last year, no team makes it through the season unblemished. Certainly the Pac 10 gets two BCS teams in this year. In other words, if Cal wins all games but the USC game, I am pretty sure that we are guaranteed a BSC berth.
In any event, it is probably that all top teams will have a loss. Then, the questions become, who is really the best. And having the BCS setting the National Championship in that scenario is really bogus. In fact, I could see having perhaps 10 1 loss teams, and perhaps one or two no loss teams, but those no loss teams were not strong enough to get into the game. What a mess - but great for Bloggers.
So what is the answer? Some would say playoffs. For a host of good reasons, I think playoffs are wrong. First, the season is too long as it is - too many injuries. Second, it eliminates a whole group of teams from after season competition - the mid-range teams that enjoy going to a bowl game. Now, the result is that 50% of all teams get to go to a bowl. If you have a winning record, you pretty much get to go Bowling. That is a pretty good end result. And 25% of teams get a victory to end the season. In a playoff competition, only one team ends with a victory. Finally, it ends the nerve-racking result of the season-long playoff that we currently have, and the electricity that each fall saturday brings.
I guess the question is, who cares who the number one team is. Three years ago, LSU won the BCS and USC won the AP. That can still happen. And I think the AP is a legitimate title. I could have the Oskitalk National Championship trophy, and give a $50,000 check and a nice trophy, and I am sure some University would be happy to accept it. There is not a lot of legitimacy in the Bowl Series, or the AP, or anything else, except for a true playoff. And a true playoff would suck for college football fans and the college game, for that matter.
If they really wanted to make money, put the students through the grind, license the hell out of the playoff series, make it 32 teams, and keep the 12 regular season games. That would be 17 games for the champion. Who would really want to travel to the 5 post-season games for their teams? Which fans really have that deep of pockets? It would turn into a corporate event, and college atmosphere would just not be there. The Bowls would be gone, along with all of the tradition and fun that goes along with them.
The plus one thing is a crock as well. What if the Bears made it through the Rosebowl, and were invited to the second game in the series. Then Nate falls down on New Year's Eve and breaks his leg. And we lose. Is that indicative of the quality of the team that we were for the entire season, or is it just a war of attrition? The 12 game season is long enough - I would feel cheated if we had to win two more games to get to the top.
As it is, the post-season practice and time from the last game to the bowls is a benefit to the teams that make it and give the players time to heal up. The bowls themselves are a crap shoot - look what happened to Ohio State last year. While I think Florida was certainly a better, faster team, that game does not play out that way on December 10 or 17. Or, for that matter, does Cal lose to Texas Tech in the same way. The layoff effects teams in different ways.
I guess what I am saying is that the most legitimate thing about all of this is winning your conference. The conference championship should be a bigger deal than it is. And then if you get to go to a big game, like a BCS game, that is great. But enjoy it. If you get screwed out of going to the big one, complain to the AP - they still may vote you in. If they don't - hire Mack Brown - he seems to have some pull there. In any case, it is not likely that a playoff and the randomness of that process would have solved the issue.
Go Bears!!
3 comments:
OREGON TORRENT
just posted... not that many seeders yet cuz the torrent is only a few hours old.
http://www.torrentportal.com/details/1416464/Cal%40OR.iso.html
Isn't this why the BCS was created; pooling a variety of polls and computers to come up with two teams for the NCS? Yes, there may be 20 1-loss teams at the end, however, not all 1-loss teams are created equally.
True, but all the BCS does is create a poll of polls to allow admission into the 4 top bowls. For example Sagarin may have Cal number 1. The NY times computer poll (although I think they gave that up) may have them number 2. The Master Coaches Survey may have Cal number 1, and the BCS may have Cal number 3, while in the AP Cal is number 2. In other words, the BCS is not the final word, and they do not in fact crown the National Champion. All it does is crown the Champion of those 4 bowls.
So the issue becomes the legitimacy of the BCS. Generally, there has not been a big issue of that, but USC says it was National Champion for 2004 when LSU won the BCS. But that had three 12-1 teams - and USC got left out of the title game. THis year, every major conference could have a one loss team get left out of the title game. That is a much bigger issue.
In other words, there has never been a year when there were really more than three teams who had a shot for the last game. This year, there could be 6 or 8 teams that should have a reasonable expectation to make the title game, but for the fickleness of voters.
Another aspect is the computer polls. Why is it that all of them do not agree? Well, it is because they are just reflections of a rating system. In other words, they are just the strong opinions of their programmers. Just this last month, Colley changed his program because of the Appalchian State victory. How is that not totally subjective. I am sure he had his reasons, but the fact is that the error in his program had been there for years. Why is now the time to make the change? And, by the way, it helped a lot of schools a bunch on his poll.
In other words, all of this is a bunch of crap. I guess I am a traditionalist - let the players play the game, let Cal beat Ohio State in the Rose Bowl, and let the voters vote for who they want, because that is all it ever will be anyway.
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