Cal vs Arizona State

This is an interesting match this week. For both teams, I think it is a pivotal game. The Bears are in a must win situation if they want any hope of playing in a BCS game. They need to win each game from here on out - which will be very tough. They have lost two games - both of them winnable in the last drive, where the Quarterback has made poor decisions.

Arizona State, on the other hand, has won all of it's games with some ease, although against some much weaker opponents. The three toughest tests so far for the Wildcats have been Colorado (who did beat Oklahoma), Oregon State (who beat Cal) and Washington State. They played fairly poorly against Colorado, but still had the wherewithal to win easily in the second game of the season for them. They also beat what I think is a pretty decent Oregon State team, when Canfield (the OSU QB) threw 5 interceptions after bringing the Beavers to a 19 point lead in the first quarter, and a 26 - 13 lead late in the third quarter. The final score was 44 to 32, and the Beavers gave the game away. They squeeked out a win at Washington State 20-23 - rushing 45 times for a 1.8 yard average. That is worse than Cal last week at UCLA. Statistically, they are very inconsistent. Carpenter has a averaged a pick per game.

So both teams can have issues. The difference is that Arizona State has won their games, and the Bears have let two games get away from them. The Bears have also played and beaten more accomplished teams this year - like Oregon and Tennessee.

There is a lot of discussion about how Tedford has never lost three in a row, how we have owned Arizona State over the past few years, how they always fold at the end of the season. All of those are silly at this point. The real issue is, who is the better team, and how are the team playing right now.

I would bet that Erickson has his team pretty loose now - they are pretty happy, number 4 in the land. But this week, there is real pressure for the first time this season. Clearly, Erickson is a good coach. And clearly he is a good strategist. He does not lose his cool. On the other hand, the Bears are kind of up against the wall. They have to win. They also have some pressure.

The difference is that this is an experienced Cal team. I hesitate to say that after the last two weeks. But it is true. And that experience comes from going to Oregon and winning, going to Tennessee last year, playing in the Holiday Bowl and kicking ass. They have played in a lot of big games recently. And they have been successful. In fact, I would say that the games that they have looked the best over the course of the last year have been in the big games. This year, Tennessee and Oregon were better than Colorado State and Arizona. What the Bears have shown is the propensity to drop down for less than big games, and get taken to the cleaners, like they have done in the past. It is unknown how Arizona State will handle the pressure. Under Koetter, of course, they would fold like a house of cards. Erickson is probably different. I am thinking it will be more like a sandcastle at the beach.

Arizona has been a big play team this year - if we can hold them to long, sustained drives they will make mistakes and turn the ball over. I know that is advocating for Gregory's bend but don't break defense. I think in this scenario it will work. We do need to pressure the QB more than we did the last two weeks. This is particularly true since the starting running back is out for them, and Carpenter (their QB) makes mistakes. If we can pressure them, we may be able to blow this open.

The good news is that the Arizona State defense is not that good. We should be able to score very well against them. I think we will put up a lot of points. I also think that we hold them to under 30 with Torain out for them. I predict a score like 45 to 30 give or take a two points in either direction. We have struggled offensively when we have not been able to run, but that is not the case here - we should be able to run and pass on them.

The bottom line - if the Cal team that we know should be playing this year shows up, we win easily. If we have the team that looks lethargic and uninterested, like they did against UCLA, then we lose. I hope the coaches make it fun this weekend down in Tempe - the kids should have fun and get a great win for the program. Arizona State is looking at the final 5 games of their schedule with dread - Cal, UCLA, Oregon, USC and Arizona. That is a tough stretch. They know it. The pressure of the top 4 ranking in the BCS is a lot of pressure. They know it. I think they give one up. They are not experienced to win in these situations and the Bears have been. After the last two weeks, this is a test for the Bears, where they have to look inside themselves and prove that they are the players they think they are.

GO BEARS!!!